U.S. Presidential Elections 2008

[BubberMiley]

What the heck happened to Giuliani? 3%??

He demonstrated how far a one-issue candidate can go in a presidential election and became a caricacture (9iu11ani) in the process. Exposure of his using taxpayers' money to subsidize his adultery and his bad judgement in appointing shady characters to high positions didn't help either.

[jbg]

Anyway - Giuliani is putting all his eggs in the big states' basket...starting with Florida.

Not a bad strategy, given the fact that all of the other three have won a major primary, leaving no clear favorite. The big states have more delegates (American Politics 101). Florida may not be our Ontario but it is extremely important, since New York and California always go blue, and most small, rural states always go red. Florida, Texas and Ohio may be our "Quebecs" since those are humongo states that can go both ways.

If Romney is the GOP candidate and Hillary is the Dem, I think I'll puke.

I think I like McCain right now...

Romney or Giuliani would be acceptable. They both had good conservative records managing states (NYC is bigger than most states) that were previously intractably liberal. They are both very good administrators, which is crucial to both being a successful candidate and President. In addition, an extremely close personal friend of mine worked directly under Romney uring his private enterprise days, and says "I should take another look" at him.

Hilary and Barak have run nothing but their mouths. Ditto McCain.

Edited January 16, 2008 by jbg

[August1991]

If Romney is the GOP candidate and Hillary is the Dem, I think I'll puke.

Beurk. I agree.

Imagine the debates? Maybe Ron Paul would get elected.

----

We got SC and Nevada this Saturday, and then Florida before Super Tuesday.

Predictions for the Dems (Can I say "Dems", Greg?)

Obama may well (barely) win SC and Nevada but Hillary will win Florida. Half of registered Dem voters in SC are black so Obama will likely get it. (This is a 'tribal Trudeau in Quebec' vote.) If Obama wins Nevada, it will be impressive. When Edwards loses SC, he'll have to bow out sooner or later. I'm still predicting a Rodham win overall but I'm surprised how weak she is. (She really bungled on the Johnson/King comment. That was the Muskie/Dean melt down moment of the campaign so far.) If she wins the nomination, she'll want Obama on the ticket. He may agree.

Still, Florida's the key on the Dem side (Florida's a remarkable microcosm of the US in general) and Hillary will win there. I still think she'll win Super Tuesday. (She has the money and the get-out-the-vote/bussed-in organization as she showed in NH.)

Predictions for the Republicans

If Thompson loses badly in SC (and I think he will) that will be the end of him. Romney seems to have conceded SC (duh) so the SC race is between McCain and Huckabee. I think McCain will win it - although his win is tenuous. (Huckabee may get Arkansas but he's too facile and insulting in South Carolina.)

McCain seems to be the clear winner in Nevada. The (Romney etc.) spin will be that it doesn't matter.

The Florida numbers are key on the Republican side. Giuliani does well with Hispanics and women but that's all. McCain does well with blacks and everyone else. When (or rather if) McCain wins Florida, Giulliani will be finished. Giuliani has to win Florida or it's over.

On the Republican side, going into Super Tuesday and assuming he wins Florida, it will be McCain's to lose.

----

So overall, I'm still predicting a McCain vs. Rodham fall campaign. It'll be an anti-climax to this early primary session.

True, I could be wrong. We'll have a better idea after Saturday and particularly after Florida. And in the back of my mind, I'm still wondering about the possibility of a second ballot in a convention.

Edited January 18, 2008 by August1991

[jbg]

The Florida numbers are key on the Republican side. Giuliani does well with Hispanics and women but that's all. McCain does well with blacks and everyone else. When (or rather if) McCain wins Florida, Giulliani will be finished. Giuliani has to win Florida or it's over.

Hispanics are a key part of the Republican vote in Florida. Blacks are not. And "big states" New York and New Jersey still have delegate counts that far swamp New Hampshire and Iowa. Rudy's far from done.

[jdobbin]

Clinton and Romney win in Nevada.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/politics_usa_politics_dc

Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Mitt Romney won Nevada's presidential nominating contests on Saturday, and voters in South Carolina cast ballots as an unpredictable White House race moved to the U.S. South and West.

Clinton, a New York senator, beat rival Barack Obama in a hotly contested Nevada race that could give her new momentum in a seesawing nomination battle to select the Republican and Democratic candidates who will vie in the November election. The two had split the first two contests.

Romney won decisively among Republicans in a Nevada race his rivals largely skipped to concentrate on South Carolina, where John McCain and Mike Huckabee were running close ahead of voting in a campaign focused on the economy.

It looks like Clinton and Romney's well financed and organized campaigns carried these states.

[jdobbin]

----

We got SC and Nevada this Saturday, and then Florida before Super Tuesday.

Predictions for the Dems (Can I say "Dems", Greg?)

Obama may well (barely) win SC and Nevada but Hillary will win Florida.

McCain seems to be the clear winner in Nevada. The (Romney etc.) spin will be that it doesn't matter.

It would seem that Nevada was a triumph of organizations on the ground.

If the Republicans keep going back and forth like this, we might see the first brokered convention since the 1950s. That must scare the hell out of the Republicans. As far as your prediction in Nevada, you forgot to factor in the Mormon vote. It was huge.

I still predict that Obama's momentum will be steadied by a victory in South Carolina.

[August1991]

McCain seems to be the clear winner in Nevada. The (Romney etc.) spin will be that it doesn't matter.

Well, I was certainly wrong there.

Clinton, seeking to become the first woman elected U.S. president, led with 50 per cent support among caucus goers, with Obama finishing second with about 45 per cent support.

...

Romney, seeking to become the first Mormon president in U.S. history, won 55 per cent of the support among Republican caucus-goers in Nevada, compared to just 12 per cent for Senator John McCain.

Link

Both wins are significant. Clinton's simply because she came first. Romney's because it was so large.

These primary results are not so clear cut at all and they're as confusing as the primary schedule and rules. We've got the Republican SC results in this evening and the Democrat SC election next Saturday. Then, on 29 January we have Florida for both parties before Super Tuesday.

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I simply can't believe that the Republicans will pick Romney. The guy is Mr. Plastic. Then again, I'm a little surprised that the Republicans might pick McCain. If McCain doesn't do well in South Carolina, given the military and all, then I'll have to revise my predictions.

[jdobbin]

If McCain doesn't do well in South Carolina, given the military and all, then I'll have to revise my predictions.

This confusion is probably why some in the Republican party are horrified at the prospect of a brokered convention.

[August1991]

Hispanics are a key part of the Republican vote in Florida. Blacks are not. And "big states" New York and New Jersey still have delegate counts that far swamp New Hampshire and Iowa. Rudy's far from done.

I agree that Hispanics, as opposed to Blacks, are an important part of Republican Florida. And I also agree that Giuliani may do well in Florida. (He had better do well given all the time he's put into it.)

Ultimately though, I think that what will sink Giuliani is that he talks like a New Yahker. Fast and with a ready answer for every problem. If he does well in Florida, he'll get the media's attention for an intense week before Super Tuesday and in that week, alot of non-New Yorker Republicans will say: "No way." Fast-talking New Yorkers are alright in movies but not as politicians. IOW, Giuliani's strategy is too smart by half.

Anyway, Giuliani is a mayor, not a president. He's a micro-manager and he'd be an unbearable and terrible president, worse than Jimmy Carter.

It would seem that Nevada was a triumph of organizations on the ground.

As was NH. That's Clinton's strength and it will pay off on Super Tuesday. As well, there are more women Democrats than African-American Democrats. (The Democratic Party's obsession with identity politics has been like a slow-motion movie of a controlled detonation.) You can be sure that Clinton will offer Obama the VP position on the ticket and I think that he'll take it. November will be "blacks and women" against Republicans. Ugh.

If the Republicans keep going back and forth like this, we might see the first brokered convention since the 1950s. That must scare the hell out of the Republicans. As far as your prediction in Nevada, you forgot to factor in the Mormon vote. It was huge.

While the Republican victories seem dispersed, keep in mind that only McCain has been a serious contender in all the primaries so far.

Is it possible to believe that the Republican nominee won't be decided before September 2008 in Minneapolis? If it happens, and the convention goes to a second ballot, the media will have a frenzy and the Republican Party will dominate the headlines for several months. Would that be scary for the Republicans? I just don't think it will happen though.

As to the Mormon vote in Nevada, when I saw Romney's result, I wondered if that was a factor. Caucuses are strange beasts and a few activists can lead to strange results. I think this explains why Ron Paul was third or even second in Nevada.

I still predict that Obama's momentum will be steadied by a victory in South Carolina.

I think too that Obama will do well in SC. About 50% of registered Democrats are black in SC and if they bother to vote, they'll vote massively for Obama. Do the math.

----

As to Thompson, the supposed hard Right candidate, I like these kinds of quotes (and there are several):

“Instead of an all-out campaign, it seemed he thought of campaigning as a break from the rest of his life, which entailed hanging out at home with his wife,” a former staffer said. Meanwhile, he noted, campaign aides are expected to work around-the-clock.

Link

Maybe Thompson thinks that he can pull a Ronald Reagan. If that's what Thompson thinks, he should know that Gerald Ford beat Reagan in 1976.

Fred Thompson is not going to be the Republican nominee.

Edited January 20, 2008 by August1991

[jdobbin]

As was NH. That's Clinton's strength and it will pay off on Super Tuesday. As well, there are more women Democrats than African-American Democrats. (The Democratic Party's obsession with identity politics has been like a slow-motion movie of a controlled detonation.) You can be sure that Clinton will offer Obama the VP position on the ticket and I think that he'll take it. November will be "blacks and women" against Republicans. Ugh.

The Hispanic vote is going for Clinton in a big way when the numbers are looked closely. Many Hispanics are turning to Democrats again because of the immigration focus of the Republicans.

While the Republican victories seem dispersed, keep in mind that only McCain has been a serious contender in all the primaries so far.

I'd say the edge goes to McCain right now. Huckabee was close in N.C. but that might not be enough.

Is it possible to believe that the Republican nominee won't be decided before September 2008 in Minneapolis? If it happens, and the convention goes to a second ballot, the media will have a frenzy and the Republican Party will dominate the headlines for several months. Would that be scary for the Republicans? I just don't think it will happen though.

Brokered conventions are brutal and can do huge damage. Take a look at what past brokered conventions have done inside a party. It is nasty. I don't know that you would want that type of attention on TV for weeks.

As to the Mormon vote in Nevada, when I saw Romney's result, I wondered if that was a factor. Caucuses are strange beasts and a few activists can lead to strange results. I think this explains why Ron Paul was third or even second in Nevada.

Mormons account for 7% of Nevada's population but they account for 30% of the Republican vote. I don't know how McCain could beat that.

Las Vegas has the most unlisted phone numbers in the world. They hate the government in their lives and anyone else who might monitor them. I can see why Paul might be appealing.

I think too that Obama will do well in SC. About 50% of registered Democrats are black in SC and if they bother to vote, they'll vote massively for Obama. Do the math.

I have no idea how N.C. will go for the Democrats. Clinton continues to pull in a lot of women. I suspect though that Edwards might have some influence there was well.

[August1991]

The Hispanic vote is going for Clinton in a big way when the numbers are looked closely. Many Hispanics are turning to Democrats again because of the immigration focus of the Republicans.

I think jbg was referring to the Republican vote. Among Republican-registered voters in Florida, Hispanics matter. And they apparently choose Giuliani. Among Republican-registered voters in Florida, women also matter (women live longer) and they also apparently choose Giuliani.

Among Republican-registered voters in Florida, black voters don't matter. What black Republican in Florida think of Giuliani is irrelevant - there's so few black Republicans in Florida.

Now then, while Giuliani will do well among hispanic Republicans (because of his name), Giuliani will not do so well among Republican women in Florida when it comes to pull the lever. Giuliani reminds them of an ex-husband; McCain is the kind of guy they'd like to meet.

For all the other Republicans in Florida, social/fiscal conservatives and so on, it'll be an even split between Giuliani and McCain. Romney might do alright - clean cut and all - but he's too Northern and Infomercial. Huckabee is just another quick-tongued Okie huckster.

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Florida's a tough place to be a candidate. I'm impressed that Jeb is a respected governor in such a state.

In Florida, rather than the Republican contest, I'd look to the Democrat race for answers in this confusing quadrennial. IMV, between Rodham and Obama, the Florida primary is critical - it's so critical that for the Democrats, the Florida primary may become truly ugly. If it doesn't become ugly-ugly, I'd call the apparent peace a tip off that the two have an arrangement on the veep position.

Edited January 20, 2008 by August1991

[August1991]

SC Republican results:

With 93 percent of precincts reporting, McCain led with 33 percent of the vote and Huckabee was second with 30 percent, trailed by former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson with 16 percent and Romney with 15 percent.

Link

For McCain, that's not a decisive win. Thompson did worse than expected (Thompson's finished) and Huckabee and Romney did better.

This race ain't over and Florida will just with Giuliani - to pick an expression off my tongue - brouiller les cartes.

Let's wait for Super Tuesday - and even then...

Edited January 20, 2008 by August1991

[bush_cheney2004]

...For McCain, that's not a decisive win. Thompson did worse than expected (Thompson's finished) and Huckabee and Romney did better.

Not decisive for SC, but very decisive for the viability of the McCain campaign, who some had declared dead in the water because of financing and support for the surge in Iraq. McCain is doing better with independents, which bodes well should he make it to the general election.

[August1991]

Time stamp me today saying Giuliani (spelling?) will be the 42nd(?) president of the united states

JerrySteinfeld, you're wrong. Time stamped.

I think the name - plus fund-raising skills - make Hillary the Democratic winner. She may come in second in Iowa but a week later, she'll be first in NH and the rest (SC) will fall quickly into place. For the Dems, this'll be over before February and Super Tuesday.

And then - the Democrats will crash and burn horribly.

....

I thought Thompson would do better and I wouldn't write off Romney yet. The Republican primaries will be interesting.

I didn't think then that McCain would win. Edited January 20, 2008 by August1991

[jbg]

Given that all GOP campaigns except Romney's are short of funds, I think Giuliani was smart to sit out the New Hampshires and Iowas. Those are media fests but very small states.

I think Giuliani will be far more marketable in the rest of the country than most imagine. He's known as the mayor that made NYC safe for Middle America to visit. His restoration of law and order plays well to the "redneck" rural vote. His record (extremely good) should trump his urban manners.

August 1991, otherwise an excellent analysis.

[BubberMiley]

JerrySteinfeld, you're wrong. Time stamped.

You could have time stamped him wrong when he made the prediction. Bill Clinton was the 42nd president.

[BubberMiley]

Given that all GOP campaigns except Romney's are short of funds, I think Giuliani was smart to sit out the New Hampshires and Iowas. Those are media fests but very small states.

If Giuliani actually wins in Florida, then you're certainly correct. But by sucking wind in every contest so far and consistently finishing behind even Ron Paul, he doesn't look like a serious contender at this early stage of the game, and that could do serious damage to his overall campaign. That appearance is showing up in his national polling numbers, which have dropped from a lead of 26% to 13% in just a few weeks.

It's make or break in Florida. Even if he finishes second there, he's done.

Edited January 20, 2008 by BubberMiley

[buffycat]

post deleted - due to board problems.

Edited January 20, 2008 by buffycat

[buffycat]

If Giuliani actually wins in Florida, then you're certainly correct. But by sucking wind in every contest so far and consistently finishing behind even Ron Paul, he doesn't look like a serious contender at this early stage of the game, and that could do serious damage to his overall campaign. That appearance is showing up in his national polling numbers, which have dropped from a lead of 26% to 13% in just a few weeks.

It's make or break in Florida. Even if he finishes second there, he's done.

Oh this stupid reply feature - posts when I hit enter for a new line...

That said, Guiliani (Mr. 911terror911terror) is toast - thank goodness. The guy is a slimeball - plain and simple.

And, Bubber - Dr. Paul finished second in Nevada.

Here are the numbers:

GOP Results Nevada

Guiliani (or I prefer Ghouliani since he has exploited to the nth degree the dead of 911, while allowing rescue personel to work in hazardous life theatening conditions - with full knowledge that being there would make them sick!) is at a deserved 4%. Here's hoping that he falls even further from his fear induced perch.

WRT who has money - yeah Romney (Mr. Self Financed) is okies with the $$ - and yes the others are running out quickly - but Dr. Paul isn't.

Funny how some of the 'so-called' leaders in this race are now actually picking up on some of Paul's points: Hitlery just said she'd 'review' nafta!! (LMAO!)

Edited January 20, 2008 by buffycat

[Carinthia]

The biggest issue that should have been addressed in this campaign is the election process. Seems to me an overhaul is long overdue. What a confusing system, not to mention the ballot machines. No paper trail? Huge room for fraud? The more complicated a system is, the more room for error. I dunno, I wouldn't have much confidence that the person, who after such a long time, had really won at all.

[buffycat]

The biggest issue that should have been addressed in this campaign is the election process. Seems to me an overhaul is long overdue. What a confusing system, not to mention the ballot machines. No paper trail? Huge room for fraud? The more complicated a system is, the more room for error. I dunno, I wouldn't have much confidence that the person, who after such a long time, had really won at all.

Thank you Carinthia for bringing up this point - many seem to not even want to think about it - nor address it.

If you are interested a good starting point on vote fraud is this site:

Black Box Voting

Many links on this site, and you can find some very good docs on google and youtube as well that demonstrate how easily these machines are tampered with.

When exit polls vary widely from 'results' it should raise a big flag - a recount with a proper paper trail - done in public view is essential.

We have the same problems happening here - don't kid yourselves.

[Guest American Woman]

....Guiliani (Mr. 911terror911terror) is toast - thank goodness. The guy is a slimeball - plain and simple.

And, Bubber - Dr. Paul finished second in Nevada.

Here are the numbers:

GOP Results Nevada

Guiliani (or I prefer Ghouliani since he has exploited to the nth degree the dead of 911, while allowing rescue personel to work in hazardous life theatening conditions - with full knowledge that being there would make them sick!) is at a deserved 4%. Here's hoping that he falls even further from his fear induced perch.

WRT who has money - yeah Romney (Mr. Self Financed) is okies with the $$ - and yes the others are running out quickly - but Dr. Paul isn't.

Funny how some of the 'so-called' leaders in this race are now actually picking up on some of Paul's points: Hitlery just said she'd 'review' nafta!! (LMAO!)

Hmmm... "Ghouliani," ... "Hitlery" ... Link

As for Paul-- he tied for second in Nevada with McCain-- and Romney won with 52% compared to Paul's and McCain's 13%. If anyone is toast, it's Paul.

[buffycat]

Hmmm... "Ghouliani," ... "Hitlery" ... Link

I missed that - I don't usually check those forums. Thanks for your moderator skills and pointing that out to me - I will cease and desist.

As for Paul-- he tied for second in Nevada with McCain-- and Romney won with 52% compared to Paul's and McCain's 13%. If anyone is toast, it's Paul.

Link?

What are your thoughts on vote fraud? Open boxes in NH recount, missing ballots - seems par for the course these days in the US elections - perhaps someone should send in the UN and some other NGO election observers... and I'd welcome them here in Canada too btw.

[jbg]

Guiliani (or I prefer Ghouliani since he has exploited to the nth degree the dead of 911, while allowing rescue personel to work in hazardous life theatening conditions - with full knowledge that being there would make them sick!) is at a deserved 4%. Here's hoping that he falls even further from his fear induced perch.

To repeat, Giuliani isn't campaigning in states that have few delegates. When it comes to conventions, it's delegates, not poll numbers in tiny states that matter.

[Guest American Woman]

Link?

Link

What are your thoughts on vote fraud? Open boxes in NH recount, missing ballots - seems par for the course these days in the US elections - perhaps someone should send in the UN and some other NGO election observers... and I'd welcome them here in Canada too btw.

I'm an advocate of election reform, but I don't feel we need the UN or some other NGO election observers. I feel others can be just as crooked as people in our system, and our elections are a national matter, not an international matter.

To repeat, Giuliani isn't campaigning in states that have few delegates. When it comes to conventions, it's delegates, not poll numbers in tiny states that matter.

In the end, considering how close our past elections have been, those "tiny states" do matter.