Carney to have MAJORITY in a couple of weeks!

[betsy]

What do you say?

 

Yes?

Or, no?

 

 

He only needs 2.   I think he will.

Edited Monday at 07:24 PM by betsy

[WestCanMan]

WTF are you talking about Betsy?

ASTEROID TO HIT CANADA IN A COUPLE OF WEEKS!

No cite or anything, just a random comment that I made...

[betsy]

4 minutes ago, WestCanMan said:

WTF are you talking about Betsy?

ASTEROID TO HIT CANADA IN A COUPLE OF WEEKS!

No cite or anything, just a random comment that I made...

 

I'm asking a hypothetical question.

 

If he only needs 2........you think he can't get two to walk across the floor?

 

Remember Belinda Stronach?

 

Here's a source:

NDP interim leader says Liberals putting out 'feelers' for MPs to cross the floor

 

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/ndp-interim-leader-says-liberals-011608737.html

Edited Monday at 07:30 PM by betsy

[Aristides]

No doubt the Liberals are courting NDP MP's. It will be interesting to see if they can attract any. 

[WestCanMan]

8 minutes ago, betsy said:

I'm asking a hypothetical question.

 

If he only needs 2........you think he can't get two to walk across the floor?

Ummm, ok, but that's not how your thread title reads. It sounds like it's something that he was basically guaranteed to accomplish. 

FYI it's just as likely that people leave the LPOC rather than join them, and it doesn't matter what party other MPs are in if they choose to vote along with them.

If we had a party with 3 MPs what would motivate us to switch parties and then just be 3 random LPOC MPs, lost in the shuffle? Is he going to offer them cabinet positions? Unlikely. 

As a party of 3 we would have a voice, and still be representing the people who voted for us in the exact manner that we were elected. 

2 minutes ago, Aristides said:

No doubt the Liberals are courting NDP MP's. It will be interesting to see if they can attract any. 

It makes no difference, as long as they agree to be toadies, like Jagmeet's crew did. 

[Aristides]

2 minutes ago, WestCanMan said:

 

It makes no difference, as long as they agree to be toadies, like Jagmeet's crew did. 

It will depend on two things.

!: Whether they think they can have more influence outside or inside the Liberal caucus.

2: How they see their personal political futures.

[Aristides]

Make that three things. What Carney has to offer if they do cross. Which is part of #2.

Edited Monday at 07:53 PM by Aristides

[WestCanMan]

12 minutes ago, Aristides said:

It will depend on two things.

!: Whether they think they can have more influence outside or inside the Liberal caucus.

Like I said, unless they're getting cabinet positions, they clearly have more clout from outside the LPOC than they do as back-benchers. 

Aside from that, the other option is bribery money. Could they just start up a newspaper or blog and get a few hundred million taxpayer dollars "to help ensure the integrity of the news during the next election cycle"? I guess that could work 

Quote

2: How they see their personal political futures.

Well, no one wants to be a back-bencher, and they likely all want to be on the news to create a higher profile for themselves, right?

Carney: "Do you want to become anonymous, and be my flunkie?"

Every MP ever: "No."

Edited Monday at 08:02 PM by WestCanMan

[Queenmandy85]

27 minutes ago, WestCanMan said:

 

It makes no difference, as long as they agree to be toadies, like Jagmeet's crew did. 

In spite of the wild speculation( without any actual evidence,) that the NDP supported the grits to protect Mr. Sinhg's pension, the Bloc, the Green and the NDP had two real motives to support the Government. They were in no position to run a successful campaign, as demonstrated by the outcome in the election, and, probably more critical, no one could stand the possibility of Mr. Poilievre becoming Prime Minister.The CPC came to realise he was a liability towards the end of the campaign when they cut him out of their advertising. Canadian elections are all about who we don't want.  If the CPC replced Pierre, they will trounce the Liberals.

In answer to Betsy's question, no NDP member will cross the floor  because the rist the anger of their party. It will end their career. Bloc members have no motive to join the government.

Edited Monday at 08:15 PM by Queenmandy85

[WestCanMan]

Just now, Queenmandy85 said:

In spite of the wild speculation( without any actual evidence,) that the NDP supported the grits to protect Mr. Sinhg's pension,

Wrong. He had his 6 years. He just had a bunch of noobs that didn't.

Quote

the Bloc, the Green and the NDP had two real motives to support the Government. They were in no position to run a successful campaign, as demonstrated by the outcome in the election,

Wrong. The NDP tanked because they were seen as Trudeau toadies and sellouts. 

If they would have forced an election, their party would have been much stronger in the next election. 

*It's not just idle speculation that Canadians hated Trudeau.

Quote

and, probably more critical, no one could stand the possibility of Mr. Poilievre becoming Prime Minister.

That's just your own ridiculous, unsupported opinion.

If you believe the polls, he was extremely popular in January.

Quote

The CPC came to realise he was a liability towards the end of the campaign when they cut him out of their advertising. Canadian elections are all about who we don't want.  If the CPC replced Pierre, they will trounce the Liberals.

That's utter BS and you know it.

Unless Trudeau becomes the leader of the CPC, the CBC will support the LPOC 100%.

[Army Guy]

4 minutes ago, Queenmandy85 said:

In spite of the wild speculation( without any actual evidence,) that the NDP supported the grits to protect Mr. Sinhg's pension, the Bloc, the Green and the NDP had two real motives to support the Government. They were in no position to run a successful campaign, as demonstrated by the outcome in the election, and, probably more critical, no one could stand the possibility of Mr. Poilievre becoming Prime Minister.The CPC came to realise he was a liability towards the end of the campaign when they cut him out of their advertising. Canadian elections are all about who we don't want.  If the CPC replced Pierre, they will trounce the Liberals.

the time period that the campaign was to run was chosen by the liberals for a good reason, i was not long enough for anyone to really get to know carney, i was not long enough for Canadians to see through his campaign, which more than 1/2 was stolen from the conservative...They ran a better campaign, took the wind out of conservatives sails,And conservatives could not figure out how to stop them...

Pretty sad reason really i don't like the way he looks or talks ....he did have a much better platform, so good the liberals stole half of it...and if you look at the numbers of who voted conservative, they are not that far off the liberals...PP will not be standing down, at least not today....he is going to have almost 2 years anyways before he will get another chance,long enough for him to refine his character...

[Queenmandy85]

51 minutes ago, WestCanMan said:

He had his 6 years. He just had a bunch of noobs that didn't.

That is speculation, not evidence. 

51 minutes ago, WestCanMan said:

If they would have forced an election, their party would have been much stronger in the next election.

That would have still put Pierre into office. The source for the Bloc's and the NDP's concerns with a Poilievre government come from public statements from the leaders of both parties.

The implementation of Bothe NDP and CBC policies (stolen as you put it) should may CPC supporters and NDP members happy. Is getting your ideas carried out the whole purpose? Why does it matter who carries it out. The CPC gets its way and the people who wanted to avoid Pierre in government get their way. Win-win.

Edited Monday at 09:06 PM by Queenmandy85

[herbie]

1 hour ago, Aristides said:

No doubt the Liberals are courting NDP MP's. It will be interesting to see if they can attract any. 

They don't have to. If you can't get ALL of your wishes would you support the ones who'll grant you SOME or, like some mentally challenged here hope, the ones who'll give you NONE and probably roll back many?

[WestCanMan]

10 minutes ago, Queenmandy85 said:

That is speculation, not evidence. 

Singh got his 6 years in February. He became an MP on Feb 25 2019. If you need evidence go look it up yourself. 

Quote

That would have still put Pierre into office.

Singh wasn't saying that he kept the Libs afloat to avoid PP from becoming PM until the polls showed the Libs ahead and his party completely tanking. 

When he initially started propping Trudeau up to begin with the NDP weren't polling below rectal cancer. 

He made the "anything but PP in the PMO" comment as a last-dict effort to make it seem as if he actually accomplished something, because he didn't want to go down in flames. 

[CdnFox]

1 hour ago, betsy said:

 

I'm asking a hypothetical question.

 

If he only needs 2........you think he can't get two to walk across the floor?

 

Remember Belinda Stronach?

 

Here's a source:

NDP interim leader says Liberals putting out 'feelers' for MPs to cross the floor

 

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/ndp-interim-leader-says-liberals-011608737.html

I think he's pulled every trick he can to get where he is now. At this point from what's left picking up three floor crossers and really you'd need four because of the speaker of the house would be tough.

In the meantime he's going to get along for quite a while just making sure his legislation keeps at least one other party in the house happy

Anything's possible but I doubt he's going to go for it a majority at this point

[betsy]

11 hours ago, WestCanMan said:

Ummm, ok, but that's not how your thread title reads. It sounds like it's something that he was basically guaranteed to accomplish. 

 

FYI it's just as likely that people leave the LPOC rather than join them, and it doesn't matter what party other MPs are in if they choose to vote along with them.

If we had a party with 3 MPs what would motivate us to switch parties and then just be 3 random LPOC MPs, lost in the shuffle? Is he going to offer them cabinet positions? Unlikely. 

As a party of 3 we would have a voice, and still be representing the people who voted for us in the exact manner that we were elected. 

It makes no difference, as long as they agree to be toadies, like Jagmeet's crew did. 

 

It is highly likely.

With the NDP in tatters (which takes years to recover - if they can).........what are the chances that a couple of them could actually cross the floor? 

They can see their political future going down with the NDP, and if they're not hard socialists...........:shrug:

 

 

 

10 hours ago, CdnFox said:

Anything's possible but I doubt he's going to go for it a majority at this point

 

Why not?

 

Majority is better than having to deal with the others.  It makes it easy forCcarney to do what he wants without anyone in the way.   And.....the opportunity to become majority is there.

Edited Tuesday at 07:37 AM by betsy

[betsy]

11 hours ago, Aristides said:

2: How they see their personal political futures.

 

 

The NDP is all but dead right now.

And if it's another MAGA who succeeds Trump - which is highly likely - Canada will be focused on only 2 parties to duke it out.

NDPs are not all hard socialists.  They can blend with the liberals.

 

Edited Tuesday at 07:42 AM by betsy

[CdnFox]

17 minutes ago, betsy said:

Why not?

The better question is why. Nothing is for free, everything costs something. As it stands he needs only have the support of one other party to pass what he wants, whereas the opposition requires the support of all of the parties to bring him down. It should be very easy to go at least two years like this, perhaps more. And all he has to do is bide his time and wait until the perfect moment when opinions and crisis comes together to allow him to justify calling another election at a time which is perfect for him and then snag a majority.

Look at what happened to Trudeau trying to play games to drag it out longer than he should have.

With being so close to a majority he should be able to get by for quite some time with next to no problems and he won't have to buy anyone to do it

[CdnFox]

10 minutes ago, betsy said:

 

 

The NDP is all but dead right now.

And if it's another MAGA who succeeds Trump - which is highly likely - Canada will be focused on only 2 parties to duke it out.

NDPs are not all hard socialists.  They can blend with the liberals.

 

The NDP are not liberals. They do not blend with the liberals at all, once in a blue moon they will lend their votes to the liberals but that's about it. This time around they punished their leader because he was a useless twat. The NDP will not make that mistake again and a new leader will breathe new life into them.

I don't know that they're going to be a major force in the next election, they are broke because having been reduced below official party status they can't get the refund that they normally would for their election expenses. So they are going to be seriously hard up for cash. But a new leader always breathes a certain amount of excitement in life into a party and if they have a good convention and good leaders put themselves forward as candidates they will certainly claw back a significant portion of the votes that parked themselves with the liberals for an election.

The other factor is the bloc. There's a very real chance that they will do far better in the next election as well. Carney is already p*ssing off the french. 

And ontario's economy isn't going up anytime soon. 

You can't scare people with trump all the time. In fact that fear level is already falling and was towards the end of the election. Bolsters have commented especially Nick Nanos that if the election had gone on another week or two it would probably have been a conservative minority.

the only real advantage carney has is that with a minority he doesn't have to wait till the fixed election date to call the next election. He can justify it whenever he wants. That lets him get to pick the timing and as we just saw with justin, that can be critical. 

[ExFlyer]

15 hours ago, Army Guy said:

the time period that the campaign was to run was chosen by the liberals for a good reason, i was not long enough for anyone to really get to know carney, i was not long enough for Canadians to see through his campaign, which more than 1/2 was stolen from the conservative...They ran a better campaign, took the wind out of conservatives sails,And conservatives could not figure out how to stop them...

Pretty sad reason really i don't like the way he looks or talks ....he did have a much better platform, so good the liberals stole half of it...and if you look at the numbers of who voted conservative, they are not that far off the liberals...PP will not be standing down, at least not today....he is going to have almost 2 years anyways before he will get another chance,long enough for him to refine his character...

It may, in your opinion, not have been long enough to get to know Carney but clearly was long enough to know PP (after 20 years in office) was not the one most Canadians wanted to be PM.

[betsy]

4 hours ago, CdnFox said:

The better question is why. Nothing is for free, everything costs something. As it stands he needs only have the support of one other party to pass what he wants, whereas the opposition requires the support of all of the parties to bring him down. It should be very easy to go at least two years like this, perhaps more. And all he has to do is bide his time and wait until the perfect moment when opinions and crisis comes together to allow him to justify calling another election at a time which is perfect for him and then snag a majority.

Look at what happened to Trudeau trying to play games to drag it out longer than he should have.

With being so close to a majority he should be able to get by for quite some time with next to no problems and he won't have to buy anyone to do it

 

As I've asked:   why not?

Carney doesn't have to promise them anything.

 

It's not like as if it never happened before.

 

Lise St-Denis (born April 18, 1940) is a former Canadian politician. She was elected to the House of Commons of Canada in the 2011 election and served a single term.^[1] She was elected in the electoral district of Saint-Maurice—Champlain as a member of the New Democratic Party, but crossed the floor to the Liberal Party of Canada on January 10, 2012, saying in French to explain her move: "Voters voted for Jack Layton. Jack Layton is dead."^[2][3]

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lise_St-Denis

 

 

Now - it's the NDP Party that's actually dead!  

It would depend on the MP who wants to advance his/her political career to make the move.....isn't it?

Edited Tuesday at 12:47 PM by betsy

[betsy]

16 hours ago, Queenmandy85 said:

In answer to Betsy's question, no NDP member will cross the floor  because the rist the anger of their party. It will end their career. Bloc members have no motive to join the government.

 

I don't think this time, any NDP crossers would have to worry about angering their party.

NDP voters had seen the result.   And they know the next election will be down to 2 Parties.  Which would an NDP voter rather vote for if it's down to Conservatives vs Liberals?

 

It's like the PP of Bernier.   Some conservatives I've talked to prefer the PP.....BUT, they know it will not win.   So, they voted Conservatives/

Edited Tuesday at 12:56 PM by betsy

[WestCanMan]

6 hours ago, betsy said:

It is highly likely.

It is highly unlikely.

Anyone who joins the LPOC:

1. instantly becomes an anonymous back-bencher
2. instantly shows their constituents that they didn't mean anything that they said while they were running for election.

Right now the PM has to come grovelling to outsider MPs every time he wants to do something. 

If Carney can't get his budget passed it triggers another election. 

That means that outsider MPs have massive clout right now. They will get national coverage. They will get to speak on CBC and CTV. It's more publicity than they could ever afford. 

If they join the LPOC they get 15 minutes of fame, for betraying their voters, then they'll be anonymous for the rest of their careers. 

[Aristides]

18 hours ago, WestCanMan said:

Like I said, unless they're getting cabinet positions, they clearly have more clout from outside the LPOC than they do as back-benchers. 

Aside from that, the other option is bribery money. Could they just start up a newspaper or blog and get a few hundred million taxpayer dollars "to help ensure the integrity of the news during the next election cycle"? I guess that could work 

Well, no one wants to be a back-bencher, and they likely all want to be on the news to create a higher profile for themselves, right?

Carney: "Do you want to become anonymous, and be my flunkie?"

Every MP ever: "No."

There are things other than cabinet positions such as seats on committees etc. The NDP ideology is pretty strong so I doubt any will desert the party.

[WestCanMan]

11 minutes ago, Aristides said:

There are things other than cabinet positions such as seats on committees etc. The NDP ideology is pretty strong so I doubt any will desert the party.

It's gonna be interesting to see if they can bring the party back to life. 

I don't know who any of their MPs are, but if they have another Jack Layton moment and Carney falters, they could have an epic comeback.

The Jack Layton thing seems impossible right now, but this is a crisis moment for that party so the chances of them acting like big boys now, and taking a more serious, common sense approach are actually quite high imo, and that's what Layton brought to the table for them. I think that they must know that it's not the time to appeal to fringe minorities and be divisive anymore.  

Will Carney falter? 

I don't like his chances against Trump, that's for sure, and his path to victory just got harder:

That's a CNN article, calling Trump's trade war with China a victory. I almost dropped dead when I saw that.

The US and Britain have already agreed to a trade deal in principle, so Canada is alone in the crosshairs now.

That doesn't say "America is hurting because of their trade war with Canada", and Canada has nothing to celebrate right now. 

It's pretty much guaranteed that Carney is going to have to lose ground on Trump's original trade deal with Canada and Mexico, which he just ripped up earlier this year. 

It sounds tempting to try to increase trade with other markets and move away from the US, but if Canada and the US both sidle up to Japan, SoKo, Taiwan, etc, we know who they're choosing. The US economy dwarfs ours and all of those guys rely on US protection to some extent, or even totally. 

Carney is in tough right now, this might have been a good election to lose, if you consider how hard it's going to be for a party to start off with a winning streak.