Poilievre's Loss in Carleton

[August1991]

In 1984, Turner won in Vancouver-Quadra.

If a leader can't organise, win his own riding, then he can't organise a government.

=====

If Poilievre had won his riding, I reckon that the Conservatives would have kept him as leader.

Now, with a Liberal NDP/Green bare majority for the next four years, he's gone.

[August1991]

Obama famously said that life is filled with wins and losses - mostly private.

He noted that politics is different - the wins and losses are very public.

[TreeBeard]

Best part of the election.  

[SpankyMcFarland]

I know every politician considers themselves leadership material but I don’t see an obvious successor waiting in the wings to replace PP. That last leadership contest was painfully long - they couldn’t go through that again. PP forced JTs resignation and the end of the carbon tax before running an impressive campaign in Trump’s shadow. Furthermore his defeat didn’t just happen. Fanjoy (my iPad wanted fanboy) worked relentlessly for two years to unseat him. Unlike many others, he wasn’t a Johnny come lately. 

[August1991]

1 hour ago, TreeBeard said:

Best part of the election.  

Poilivere's loss? Strongly disagree.

======

Years ago a friend asked me to help his campaign. NDP, urban Ontario, provincial, I drove to Toronto, slept on the floor.

I remember knocking on doors, talking to people.

 

[CdnFox]

1 hour ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

I know every politician considers themselves leadership material but I don’t see an obvious successor waiting in the wings to replace PP. That last leadership contest was painfully long - they couldn’t go through that again. PP forced JTs resignation and the end of the carbon tax before running an impressive campaign in Trump’s shadow. Furthermore his defeat didn’t just happen. Fanjoy (my iPad wanted fanboy) worked relentlessly for two years to unseat him. Unlike many others, he wasn’t a Johnny come lately. 

Well  and more importantly he delivered almost 30 new seats 41% of the popular vote.

While the loss of his seat is embarrassing You can't go ignoring those other numbers. He's done better than any conservative leader since Brian Mulroney and that's not nothing.

He's going to have some hard questions to answer but I can't see why anybody will get rid of them with that kind of performance. More importantly that appears to be the new base, he was pulling at that level for months and months so they're not just flashes in the pan or people who temporarily decided to vote conservative.

It looks like he lost his riding due to the trump effect and I'm sure he's furious. The sad thing is as a leader can't watch his own writing very carefully while he's out on the campaign trip and somehow this slip through the cracks. The guy who once said he didn't see any conservative signs out until a week before the end of the election. 

He's going to take heat for it and he's going to get smacked around for it but at the end of the day it's hard to walk away from his other accomplishments

[SpankyMcFarland]

1 hour ago, CdnFox said:

It looks like he lost his riding due to the trump effect and I'm sure he's furious. The sad thing is as a leader can't watch his own writing very carefully while he's out on the campaign trip and somehow this slip through the cracks. The guy who once said he didn't see any conservative signs out until a week before the end of the election. 

Not just the Trump effect. By all accounts his opponent worked like hell. 

[CdnFox]

8 hours ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

Not just the Trump effect. By all accounts his opponent worked like hell. 

100 million percent the trump effect

The guy who won admitted this and is the first one to say it. He said he worked for 2 years knocking doors and organizing and got absolutely nowhere and made zero headway

Then trump and the tariffs came along and Justin stepped down and all of a sudden he started getting traction.

And if you look at the numbers it's very clear that the NDP and liberal vote from past elections came together and merged and between the two of them were enough to put this guy over the top

This is 100 billion percent times the trump effect. NDP and block voters went to the liberals in absolutely massive numbers and you can pretty much take the drop in their support and plug it directly into the liberals support and the numbers work out

And that's why they didn't see this coming. I'm sure they regularly pull that riding, and i'm sure it was perfectly safe, but suddenly everything changed and they were probably late picking up on what happened and by then it was too late.  PP got the same votes he normaly does, he didn't go down really.  But the ndp and libs votes merged and that was that

[Aristides]

He represented an Ottawa riding. He came out in support of the Freedom Convoy which was making life hell for residents and talked about gutting the civil service in a constituency that contains a lot of civil servants. What could go wrong.

[CdnFox]

5 minutes ago, Aristides said:

He represented an Ottawa riding. He came out in support of the Freedom Convoy which was making life hell for residents and talked about gutting the civil service in a constituency that contains a lot of civil servants. What could go wrong.

He got the same number of votes he always did. Again the NDP and the liberals got together and showed up. I don't know Why this is hard to understand

[Moonbox]

He managed to get 50% of his constituents to vote against him and boot him out of office. 

It seems you're the one having trouble understanding.  😆

[WestCanMan]

How much did the gov't of China like the fact that Poilievre lost in his own riding? 

If they didn't support fanjoy, I'm Julius Caesar. 

[SpankyMcFarland]

1 hour ago, CdnFox said:

100 million percent the trump effect

The guy who won admitted this and is the first one to say it. He said he worked for 2 years knocking doors and organizing and got absolutely nowhere and made zero headway

Then trump and the tariffs came along and Justin stepped down and all of a sudden he started getting traction.

And if you look at the numbers it's very clear that the NDP and liberal vote from past elections came together and merged and between the two of them were enough to put this guy over the top

This is 100 billion percent times the trump effect. NDP and block voters went to the liberals in absolutely massive numbers and you can pretty much take the drop in their support and plug it directly into the liberals support and the numbers work out

And that's why they didn't see this coming. I'm sure they regularly pull that riding, and i'm sure it was perfectly safe, but suddenly everything changed and they were probably late picking up on what happened and by then it was too late.  PP got the same votes he normaly does, he didn't go down really.  But the ndp and libs votes merged and that was that

So if he’d been one of those candidates who popped up a few weeks ago, like my local Liberal who lost, he’d have won? In life, events are rarely caused by one thing. 

[CdnFox]

54 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

He managed to get 50% of his constituents to vote against him and boot him out of office. 

It seems you're the one having trouble understanding.  😆

Trump managed that. Do you need me to write it in crayons for you to make it easier?  

[SpankyMcFarland]

36 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

Trump managed that. Do you need me to write it in crayons for you to make it easier?  

So you wouldn’t even give Fanjoy 1% of the credit for his win? Please sah, just 1%. It ain’t much for a man loik yaself. 

Edited Wednesday at 04:40 PM by SpankyMcFarland

[CdnFox]

3 hours ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

So if he’d been one of those candidates who popped up a few weeks ago, like my local Liberal who lost, he’d have won? In life, events are rarely caused by one thing. 

He says in this case it was caused by one thing. He's the guy that did the work and won the writing so I have no reason to disbelieve that. Check out his interview on the Vassy Kapela show, you can still check out the podcasts.

About the best you can say is the guy was organized and when an opportunity presented itself like that he took advantage of it. But yeah no it was trump and the tariffs

[August1991]

On 4/30/2025 at 10:26 AM, CdnFox said:

....

The guy who won admitted this and is the first one to say it. He said he worked for 2 years knocking doors and organizing and got absolutely nowhere and made zero headway

Then trump and the tariffs came along and Justin stepped down and all of a sudden he started getting traction.

And if you look at the numbers it's very clear that the NDP and liberal vote from past elections came together and merged and between the two of them were enough to put this guy over the top

....

Local work is about 5%.

True, Poilievre could have done more for his local workers.

===

In his place, I would have done as Laurier, moved elsewhere.

Poilievre should have run in western Ontario, Alberta.

"I am unelectable in Ottawa - even its suburbs."

[CdnFox]

1 hour ago, August1991 said:

Local work is about 5%.

True, Poilievre could have done more for his local workers.

===

In his place, I would have done as Laurier, moved elsewhere.

Poilievre should have run in western Ontario, Alberta.

"I am unelectable in Ottawa - even its suburbs."

I think it probably took him completely off guard. I'm sure that even just before the election his riding was polling as a solid guaranteed win.

I don't think anyone really understood initially how strong the trump effect was going to be. When you look at the actual numbers It's pretty clear, the NDP which is usually at least substantial in that riding was almost zero.

He's held the writing for 20 years. My guess would be that he turned it over to a local person or staff member who took the writing for granted and didn't work it. He also didn't show up at the debate that was organized locally which is not surprising but still, the others did. And they were probably late to realize what was happening and how bad it was. By then it would have been way too late. It may have been too late from the beginning considering the trump effect

[August1991]

3 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

I think it probably took him completely off guard.

....

He's held the writing for 20 years. My guess would be that he turned it over to a local person or staff member who took the writing for granted and didn't work it.

....

All true. (riding, not writing)

Note Boulerice. And Chretien's riding in Shawinagan.

[CdnFox]

1 minute ago, August1991 said:

All true. (riding, not writing)

Note Boulerice. And Chretien's riding in Shawinagan.

Stupid voice dictation absolutely cannot understand the word riding, always makes it 'writing'   If i say "she was riding her horse' it's fine because the AI picks up the context, but when i say something about "his riding" or the like it's always 'His writing".  Sometimes I don't bother proofreading before I click submit

[myata]

On 4/30/2025 at 11:46 AM, WestCanMan said:

How much did the gov't of China

This is what's wrong with this distorted and convoluted version of conservatism today: it just doesn't get, and won't recognize the objective reality. Either it gets its way; or it'll go down bitter and hateful of the reality. There are just no good ends to that story. And Poiliever has drawn himself into it.

Now Conservatives have a simple, strait choice: to remain in the reality, a part of it; or go down the maga cesspool. All the way. Once the process begins, there aren't any stops on the way.

[ExFlyer]

On 4/29/2025 at 11:48 PM, CdnFox said:

Well  and more importantly he delivered almost 30 new seats 41% of the popular vote.

While the loss of his seat is embarrassing ....

While the PC got more votes and seats, so did the Liberals

The liberals increased their votes by 11%. The cons by 7%.

[Moonbox]

1 hour ago, ExFlyer said:

While the PC got more votes and seats, so did the Liberals

The liberals increased their votes by 11%. The cons by 7%.

Blowing a 25% lead in the polls, increasing Liberal vote share to the highest its been in 45 years, losing the election AND losing his own seat were always part of the endgame.  Poilievre has the Liberals right where he wants them....

   

[CdnFox]

2 hours ago, ExFlyer said:

While the PC got more votes and seats, so did the Liberals

The liberals increased their votes by 11%. The cons by 7%.

The libs added 12 seats, the cpc added 25 .  The cpc obviously expanded into new areas more than the libs. 

But here's the big difference.  That vote now represents the CPC base.  The CPC has been polling there for over a year, constantly around 41-43 percent.  And after a year of that, that's what they got.  That's what they can expect election to election. 

The liberals stole the ndp and some of the bloc and green vote. wIthout that they'd have close to 30 fewer seats.  And those votes will be wanting to go back home for the next time   

This is carney's best day, every single thing was in his favor. From here on out he's going to disappoint and not be able to deliver everything he promised and even during the campaign the more people saw of him the more the cpc went up. 

On the other hand, this is PP's worst day, everything went to hell, his 'carbon election' pitch blew up, justin left and all the work showing what a scud ball he was went with him, carney became an unelected prime minister and stole the limelight on trump, etc etc.   It was the worst.  

And PP still held carney to a minority and still brought in 41 percent of the vote  

[ExFlyer]

41 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

The libs added 12 seats, t...

And PP still held carney to a minority and still brought in 41 percent of the vote  

Try as you might  but......YOU STILL LOST and NOTHING WILL CHANGE THAT!!!! LOL

Libs got more popular votes than the cons. They got the most ever.

LOSER!!!!