Cancellation of the F-35 contract is now a necessity: when and how, not if

[Dougie93]

28 minutes ago, myata said:

Look you must have missed all the news, the threats against Denmark, a NATO ally; threats against Canada, NATO founding member and a long-time ally. Territorial claims against Canada, most recently.

that doesn't change the fact that Canada made itself reliant upon America for Canada's defence, long ago

there's no easy way out now, Canada doesn't have a Plan B

[Legato]

4 hours ago, myata said:

It really can't work any other way at this point: the credibility of the U.S. as a trusted security partner will take decades to recover, in the very best, absolutely best scenario. Threats to NATO allies, Denmark and Canada? New territorial claims? Who, with a grain of a sound mind would dismiss them as some sick jokes. The U.S. can control these assets, the episode with Ukraine showed it clearly, and it's a clear weakness and a huge risk to national security to acquire them now. There's no avoiding this argument. The contract will be cancelled, one way or another.

We could always by the new Sopwith Camel, complete with rainbow roundels and transgender tail feathers.

Just make sure the top machine gun is a Vickers and not a Browning.

[SpankyMcFarland]

2 hours ago, Dougie93 said:

okay, well you'll have to cancel the Type 26 Destroyers already in production

because those are all reliant upon Lockheed Martin,

you'll have to replace all the LAV's in the Canadian Army, because those are General Dynamics

the Chinooks have to go, those are Boeing, the Cyclone helicopters for the navy too, those are LockMart

the Griffon helicopters are American too ; Bell Textron

C-17 Globemaster & C-130 Super Hercules, your entire airlift fleet has to go, $5 billion worth

practically every missile system Canada operates, air & sea, is made by Raytheon

the Boeing CF-18's are no more free from American control than the F-35

it's not just software,

all this American equipment is totally reliant upon American defense contractor supply chains

and anything which contains any American military tech at all is subject to American ITAR restrictions

once you drill down on how much American tech the CAF relies upon,

you're pretty much talking about replacing everything,

at the cost of hundreds of billions, taking decades to implement

are Canadians prepared to increase the defence budget to 5% GDP therein ?  Yeah, okay, sure

doesn't matter how butt hurt you are, you outsourced your defence to the Americans decades ago

and now they've got you by the balls therein, because there is no affordable quick fix

So what are you advocating here? No change at all? I would say that as in everything else we have to diversify over time and move away from complete dependence on one foreign country whose policies have just changed radically.

Edited March 10 by SpankyMcFarland

[TreeBeard]

1 hour ago, herbie said:

OMG it's encrypted! We're doomed then, nobody can break encryption....

You’re being extremely naive if you think anyone can just hack into an F35 and call it their own. 

[Dougie93]

1 minute ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

So what are you advocating here? No change at all? 

I'm not advocating, simply pointing out that a massive shift is not realistic within the time frame of Trump,

so I doubt the political class in Canada is going to make a significant shift, rather they will simply wait Trump out

by the time F-35's start arriving in Cold Lake in significant numbers, Trump will be out of office

[Dougie93]

48 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

A cancellation would send a clear message though.

except Canada would end up having to come back cap in hand to order them again at some future date,

each time Canada cancels then reverses itself, the price goes up significantly ; defence specific inflation

also factor in the cancellation penalty in the contract at this point, add that to the price

Canada constantly cancelling and then having to reorder ; same old same old

Edited March 10 by Dougie93

[blackbird]

4 hours ago, Army Guy said:

Why would we cancel a program for the air force that is a 5th generation aircraft, that is now the cheapest and best on the market, the only NON american fighter that is worth anything is the Euro fighter which is far more expensive , and is only a 4.5 generation which it's replacement is being worked on as we speak. 

The answer is because we may not be able to control the F35 jets.  Reportedly they can be controlled by the U.S. only and can even be shut down remotedly.

quote

Canada ordered 88 F-35A fighter jets for $14.5 billion. Now, security experts are discussing whether the United States could remotely disable them.

This concern stems from recent actions and statements by former U.S. President Donald Trump.

He has repeatedly suggested that America should take a tougher stance with its allies. Some fear this could include controlling access to military technology, writes Newsweek.

Canada is a large country with vast resources but a relatively small military. It sits between two global powers—Russia and the United States.

Given the current geopolitical climate, this is not an ideal situation. Many Canadians are now questioning whether relying on U.S. defense technology is a risk.

Experts have pointed out that the U.S. retains control over F-35 software. Mission programming for these jets is handled entirely in the U.S.

The Pentagon can update or modify the aircraft’s systems remotely. This has led to speculation that the U.S. could theoretically shut down foreign-operated F-35s if it wanted to.  unquote

The U.S. Maintains Control Over Canada’s F-35 Fighter Jets

[Dougie93]

24 minutes ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

 I would say that as in everything else we have to diversify over time and move away from complete dependence on one foreign country whose policies have just changed radically.

well again, to unwind Canada from American defence is a generational project which would take decades,

meanwhile American policy could change radically in the opposite direction in 2029,

[blackbird]

quote

Experts have pointed out that the U.S. retains control over F-35 software. Mission programming for these jets is handled entirely in the U.S.

The Pentagon can update or modify the aircraft’s systems remotely. This has led to speculation that the U.S. could theoretically shut down foreign-operated F-35s if it wanted to.  unquote

The U.S. Maintains Control Over Canada’s F-35 Fighter Jets

30 minutes ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

So what are you advocating here? No change at all?

He's an American and MAGA guy.

[SpankyMcFarland]

21 minutes ago, Dougie93 said:

I'm not advocating, simply pointing out that a massive shift is not realistic within the time frame of Trump,

so I doubt the political class in Canada is going to make a significant shift, rather they will simply wait Trump out

by the time F-35's start arriving in Cold Lake in significant numbers, Trump will be out of office

The forces that impelled Trump to the WH and empowered similar populists across the West aren’t going away any time soon. He may not be a blip. It is prudent to start thinking about the possibility of a grim new reality becoming permanent. Yes, military procurement happens on a glacial scale in Canada but there is no harm in starting the discussion about what we should do if the US has changed permanently. 
 

 

[Dougie93]

35 minutes ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

The forces that impelled Trump to the WH and empowered similar populists across the West aren’t going away any time soon. He may not be a blip. It is prudent to start thinking about the possibility of a grim new reality becoming permanent. Yes, military procurement happens on a glacial scale in Canada but there is no harm in starting the discussion about what we should do if the US has changed permanently.

well it's grim for Canada indeed then, because becoming America's permanent enemy is a dark future,

might as well forget about fighter jets altogether if that's the case, since you won't be able to afford them

if you're planning on being America's permanent enemy then you should go fully asymmetrical,

start building your own drones like the Ukrainians as your new model air force.

if you're America's enemy, then there is no more reason to project power overseas,

instead you would need a large conscript territorial defence force,

America could easily destroy any conventional forces like jets & ships, so don't waste money on those

how you would trade internationally against an American naval blockade ; not sure, that's a tough one

since neither Europe nor China could actually save you from across the oceans

suffice to say, you might be doing Trumps work for him as America's enemy,

when large numbers of Canadians start to flee to America as economic refugees

I would suspect that Canada as America's permanent enemy is the end of Canada by default

ultimately you're better off being the 51st state than you are being giant frozen Cuba

Edited March 10 by Dougie93

[myata]

1 hour ago, Michael Hardner said:

A cancellation would send a clear message though.

It's about way more than sending a message and even "killswitch". As the incident in Ukraine with F-16 shows there's mandatory maintenance of certain critical functions that has to happen regularly. And as facts show now, an American administration can shut it down at any time with no notice or recourse. That can disable critical functions or even the fighter as a whole, if a mandatory update was missed.

Guess in the easy times we glanced over it as a necessary maintenance (and the revenue stream for the manufacturer) but now the question cannot be avoided, what if it's another hook, same effect and way easier to maintain than the "killswitch"?

Just imagine a not-so-hypothetical situation, a developing crisis in the Arctics with some hostile party (guess) but they happen to be buddies with the U.S. administration and the latter wants to "deescalate". All of a sudden you have to tantalize, to lift them off with critical functions disabled or keep grounded with nothing to deter the adversary. Or if Russia attacking Baltics or Poland. What kind of brainless carelessness could justify overlooking such possibilities, given all what transpired recently?

Could it be for that very reason that UK has Typhoons, France Mirages, Sweden Gripens and a coalition of Europeans, Eurofighter? A critical dependence in such matters is measured not in dollars but in percent fractions of the independence and sovereignty lost.

[myata]

40 minutes ago, blackbird said:

Experts have pointed out that the U.S. retains control over F-35 software. Mission programming for these jets is handled entirely in the U.S.

This is no hypothetical matter anymore. It was done already with F-16 given to Ukraine. We aren't talking about hypothetical risks but real and present ones.

[SpankyMcFarland]

35 minutes ago, Dougie93 said:

well it's grim for Canada indeed then, because becoming America's permanent enemy is a dark future,

might as well forget about fighter jets altogether if that's the case, since you won't be able to afford them

if you're planning on being America's permanent enemy then you should go fully asymmetrical,

start building your own drones like the Ukrainians as your new model air force.

if you're America's enemy, then there is no more reason to project power overseas,

instead you would need a large conscript territorial defence force,

America could easily destroy any conventional forces like jets & ships, so don't waste money on those

how you would trade internationally against an American naval blockade ; not sure, that's a tough one

since neither Europe nor China could actually save you from across the oceans

suffice to say, you might be doing Trumps work for him as America's enemy,

when large numbers of Canadians start to flee to America as economic refugees

I would suspect that Canada as America's permanent enemy is the end of Canada by default

ultimately you're better off being the 51st state than you are being giant frozen Cuba

I would suggest there is a middle way between being an enemy and a colony. We still want good relations with them but we are separate countries with different worldviews and interests. 

Edited March 10 by SpankyMcFarland

[Dougie93]

6 minutes ago, myata said:

 Sweden Gripens

bad news for Sweden ; the Gripen is powered by an American engine,  the GE F414

[myata]

This is no hypothetical but real and practical matter. It already happened. Who can say it won't happen again? To throw 100 billion with that kind of a security hole is not even carelessness more like insanity.

[SpankyMcFarland]

America has to manage its external relations better if it intends to keep willing allies in the world which it will certainly need as China’s critical mass of scientists, engineers and entrepreneurs really gets going. If it retreats to a Fortress North America policy we may be doomed but the rest of the world will have more options. 

[Dougie93]

1 minute ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

I would suggest there is a middle way between being an enemy and a colony. We still want good relations with them but we are separate countries with different worldviews and interests. 

I'm simply going by your assessment of the MAGA worldview becoming America's permanent doctrine,

if that's the case, there will be no peaceful coexistence,

I know MAGA, and they truly despise leftist socialist Canada,

again, to MAGA, you're basically Cuba North

hence why Trump is playing to his base this way,

[myata]

It's not "they" it's you! Your are Maga, don't even pretend it. The victim is at fault for anything the psycho decides to do to her. That's as pure Maga as it gets.

Edited March 10 by myata

[SpankyMcFarland]

1 minute ago, Dougie93 said:

I'm simply going by your assessment of the MAGA worldview becoming America's permanent doctrine,

if that's the case, there will be no peaceful coexistence,

I know MAGA, and they truly despise leftist socialist Canada,

again, to MAGA, you're basically Cuba North

hence why Trump is playing to his base this way,

I think it’s prudent to assume that Trumpism isn’t going away and will be part of their make-up going forward. 

Leftist and socialist are losing their meaning as adjectives. The MAGA movement isn’t libertarian, for example. Most of its supporters like the benefits big government provides. If Musk and his oligarch friends actually go ahead with radical cuts to Medicare, Medicaid and social security, for example, they will split Trump’s coalition.
 

 

[Iceni warrior]

1 hour ago, Dougie93 said:

I'm not advocating, simply pointing out that a massive shift is not realistic within the time frame of Trump,

so I doubt the political class in Canada is going to make a significant shift, rather they will simply wait Trump out

by the time F-35's start arriving in Cold Lake in significant numbers, Trump will be out of office

Spring has nearly sprung. It'll be assassination season in no time.

Open air rallies and endless rounds of golf.

They can't keep missing him, it's not like he's a small target.

[myata]

3 minutes ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

I think it’s prudent to assume that Trumpism isn’t going away and will be part of their make-up going forward

Yes it's called oligarchy in the third world setting. In well over a century of Latin America records we can see that it would swing from open fascist-like dictatorship, to some form of quasi-democracy, to corrupt oligarchy and over again. It won't be going anywhere unless some radical change happens in the society itself, and what could be the chance of that?

[Dougie93]

11 minutes ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

I think it’s prudent to assume that Trumpism isn’t going away and will be part of their make-up going forward.

I predict that once Trump goes, it all collapses into infighting

again, I know MAGA, and the only thing they agree upon is Trump

it's a cult of the personality,

I expect that America will come storming back to being the World Police in the not too distant future,

historically, that's how it always goes,

America attempts to withdrawal into isolationism,

then that incites adversaries to make their moves,

which results in America getting dragged back in all over again

[xul]

5 hours ago, Army Guy said:

Why would we cancel a program for the air force that is a 5th generation aircraft, that is now the cheapest and best on the market, the only NON american fighter that is worth anything is the Euro fighter which is far more expensive , and is only a 4.5 generation which it's replacement is being worked on as we speak. 

This has the makings of some dumb liberal decision, like our canceling our maritime helicopters contract or justins saying no he would not buy f-35 in the first place...., it would take years to pick a new fighter and get a place on the production line, at double the costs....why would that make sense.... because you don't like trump, he is going to be gone before our first F-35 aircraft is operational. 

A few weeks ago in an Indian internet defense forum, under the topic in which Indian netizens were arguing whether IAF should buy F-35 or Su-57 to fight Chinese J20, I joked that IAF should definitely buy F-35 because the AI residing inside its computers would continue fight China to the bitter end at its true master's bidding, even if its Indian pilot had bailed out off the plane. 😜

In the age of mechanical weapons, when an American soldier picked up an AK47 to shoot Vietcong in Vietnam, the weapon was still as good as in his enemy's hands. But nowadays, a weapon which is fully controlled by many computers and uplinked by satellite networks to somewhere in US, whether it is a 5 generation aircraft or a -5 generation aircraft (which means it may turn against you at its true master's bidding) completely depends on whom your enemy is.😢

Still given current circumstance Canada may indeed need to buy some F-35s.....for studying how to defeat them, just in case someday hundreds of them fly over the border to annex Canada....  

[ironstone]

1 hour ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

move away from complete dependence on one foreign country whose policies have just changed radically.

The pendulum has swung to the right. Eventually, it will swing back to the left. Maybe in another four years, perhaps longer. A majority of states and citizens were not happy with another four years of Biden type policies as Harris indicated she didn't plan to do anything different if she won. I would argue that the radical policies were those of Biden and Harris.

Prior to Trump winning again, Democrats were in control for 12 of the last 16 years.