I sense a spring election for Canada

[Queenmandy85]

22 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

on april 26 i believe the new ridings come into effect and canada gets 5 new ridings, all of which are likely to go cpc.

So, Mr. Poilievre gets 213 seats instead of 208. That doesn't change the Liberals future.

[CdnFox]

3 minutes ago, Queenmandy85 said:

I'm sorry, but you can't offer a straight line like that and not expect some one to use it. 

"All the spectacularly dumb things he has said and done already, haven't hurt him yet."

Sorry, I couldn't pass that up

Fact is he really hasn't done any.

And if anything he keeps improving and polishing his game.

That's what's killing the libs - the guy just doesn't really make any mistakes, there's virtually no forced errors. The biggest 'blunder' was his talk about bitcoin which barely lasted more than a news cycle despite all the efforts of the libs and now it turns out anyone who'd invested when he brought it up would be far further ahead and would have outperformed stocks or bonds or gic's or the like.

The guy is a calculated player who is fast on his feet, and they won't be able to surprise him with any quesitons like they did scheer and erin.  And based on what we've seen so far his campaign will be meticulously planned and well executed.

Even on level ground it would be a tough fight for justin. Which is why i say i'm not sure at all there will be an election but then you have to take into account justin's eqo and other factors which may be pushing him.

[CdnFox]

4 minutes ago, Queenmandy85 said:

So, Mr. Poilievre gets 213 seats instead of 208. That doesn't change the Liberals future.

I know - but it doesn't make it easier either.

If justin's convincing himself that he may have some sort of shot and he knows that it's going to be a hard fight, why spot your opponent an extra 5 points?

It may be that he believes he can hold the cpc to a minority.  I mean who knows  It really doens't make sense for him to go right now but i definitely see signs of getting ready for that so he's at least thinking about it, whether he wants to go or fears he'll be forced into it.

[Queenmandy85]

8 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

I know - but it doesn't make it easier either.

If justin's convincing himself that he may have some sort of shot and he knows that it's going to be a hard fight, why spot your opponent an extra 5 points?

It may be that he believes he can hold the cpc to a minority.  I mean who knows  It really doens't make sense for him to go right now but i definitely see signs of getting ready for that so he's at least thinking about it, whether he wants to go or fears he'll be forced into it.

Canada 338 puts the CPC at 208 seats this week to the Liberals 64. Prime Minister Trudeau may not be the sharpest knife in the drawer but even he has to be resigned to his fate. The only thing he has control over is the timing of his resignation or the election. Either way, he is doomed. M. Blanchet is probably already measuring the curtains at Stornaway.

Edited February 21 by Queenmandy85

[Moonlight Graham]

They'll wait for as long as possible to call the election.  Spring doubtful

[Queenmandy85]

Just to add, changing Liberal leaders won't change anything either. Remember, they were in decline before the 2015 election. 

[Nefarious Banana]

20 minutes ago, Queenmandy85 said:

Canada 338 puts the CPC at 208 seats this week to the Liberals 64. Prime Minister Trudeau may not be the sharpest knife in the drawer but even he has to be resigned to his fate. The only thing he has control over is the timing of his resignation or the election. Either way, he is doomed. M. Blanchet is probably already measuring the curtains at Stornaway.

You don't think he'll stumble and lurch into a snowdrift like his 'stepdad' did?  😊

[CdnFox]

19 minutes ago, Queenmandy85 said:

Canada 338 puts the CPC at 208 seats this week to the Liberals 64. Prime Minister Trudeau may not be the sharpest knife in the drawer but even he has to be resigned to his fate. The only thing he has control over is the timing of his resignation or the election. Either way, he is doomed. M. Blanchet is probably already measuring the curtains at Stornaway.

Campaigns matter and nobody knows that better than him. He may feel that right now will be his best chance.  Inflaton numbers are coming down, the bank is talking about lowering interest rates, danielle smith pushed trans issues up in the public mind again, he's got enough money for a few big spending announcements, trump  is resurgent in the south .. maybe he can throw enough mud to make something stick.

Look - your whole argument  is based on the idea that this is a crappy time for him to go and he should by logic and liberal dogma stay on as long as he can.   I agree, no doubt, nobody's arguing that, you win, bow bow bow.

but - sometimes there are other factors at play and sometimes politicians do very surprising things. And he may have pressures on him that we don't see directly.

But if you look at the push to get nominations signed up, the push to do major announcements and get his face out there, a new look, a sudden push in the papers for stories about how PP feels about trans people, and the fact his back bench is in near revolt and every month for the last 7 months the polls look worse and worse - all i'm saying is that it woudln't surprise me at all and  if he IS thinking about it then end of april is a logical go/no-go deadline.

[Nefarious Banana]

1 hour ago, Queenmandy85 said:

That can apply to Mr. Poilievre, me, and, I hazard a guess, you. Do you get paid or accept payment for your work? Do you not serve yourself?  Do you get paid for not working? How many hours a week do you work? How many bosses do you have? Do they give you contradictory instructions? 

While he was serving himself, he also assembled multi-partisan teams that saved NAFTA from a hostile American Congress, and assembled another group that included all premiers and political parties except the PPC, to respond to a deadly pandemic. He was self serving, just like the rest of us, but he worked well with others. Let's hope Mr. Poilievre will do the same when he is appointed in a year and a half.

"Don't Bogart that joint my friend, pass it over to me . . . "

[Queenmandy85]

25 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

Campaigns matter and nobody knows that better than him. He may feel that right now will be his best chance.  Inflaton numbers are coming down, the bank is talking about lowering interest rates, danielle smith pushed trans issues up in the public mind again, he's got enough money for a few big spending announcements, trump  is resurgent in the south .. maybe he can throw enough mud to make something stick.

Look - your whole argument  is based on the idea that this is a crappy time for him to go and he should by logic and liberal dogma stay on as long as he can.   I agree, no doubt, nobody's arguing that, you win, bow bow bow.

but - sometimes there are other factors at play and sometimes politicians do very surprising things. And he may have pressures on him that we don't see directly.

But if you look at the push to get nominations signed up, the push to do major announcements and get his face out there, a new look, a sudden push in the papers for stories about how PP feels about trans people, and the fact his back bench is in near revolt and every month for the last 7 months the polls look worse and worse - all i'm saying is that it woudln't surprise me at all and  if he IS thinking about it then end of april is a logical go/no-go deadline.

Perhaps his walk in the snow next week will lead him to drop the writs instead of a resignation letter. It sticks in my mind that someone said the Liberals will do better under Prime Minister Trudeau than any other leading Liberal contender. Who knows. 

Always keep my standard disclaimer in mind: The last time I accurately predicted anything was when Cassius Clay beat Sony Liston. I got 10 - 1 odds on that. I won a dime. 

[Moonbox]

1 hour ago, Queenmandy85 said:

I'm sorry, but you can't offer a straight line like that and not expect some one to use it. 

"All the spectacularly dumb things he has said and done already, haven't hurt him yet."

Sorry, I couldn't pass that up

Spectacularly dumb perhaps under a critical/realistic/intellectual lens, but not from that of the audience for which he's performing.  Railing about the WEF and central banking etc, and repeating simple slogans is very appealing to a certain type...

I'll probably end up voting conservative next election, but I'll do so knowing that Pierre Poilievre is a performer and a career politician, just like Trudeau.  I'm just hopeful that there's more under the hood in his case.   

[Queenmandy85]

11 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

Spectacularly dumb perhaps under a critical/realistic/intellectual lens, but not from that of the audience for which he's performing.  Railing about the WEF and central banking etc, and repeating simple slogans is very appealing to a certain type...

I'll probably end up voting conservative next election, but I'll do so knowing that Pierre Poilievre is a performer and a career politician, just like Trudeau.  I'm just hopeful that there's more under the hood in his case.   

We tend to forget that Prime Minister Trudeau was reluctant to get involved in politics. He grew up in that environment and had to be persuaded to run. He declined to run for the Liberal leadership because he was worried about what it would do to his family. He saw that happen to his parents. As a result, he has never had the fire in his belly. Mr. Poilievre has a nuclear furnace in his belly. I was involved with the YPC's and the  PC Student Federation in BC and I never met a young Tory who was not convinced that they were destined to be PM. I was one of them. But Pierre takes it (has lived it) on a whole new level. I would love to be him on election night, but only that night. 😎

[CdnFox]

26 minutes ago, Queenmandy85 said:

Perhaps his walk in the snow next week will lead him to drop the writs instead of a resignation letter. It sticks in my mind that someone said the Liberals will do better under Prime Minister Trudeau than any other leading Liberal contender. Who knows. 

 

well this was along the lines of what i was thinking. I don't think there IS another 'leading contender".  I think nobody will take the job if he steps down,  i think they all realize the liberal brand is badly damaged and that isnt' going away in just 18 months. Never mind the time it takes for a leadership convention.

I wonder if they're telling him that they feel that it's better to take a heavy loss now with him at the helm and have him do all he can to minimize that vs having a 'kim campbell" moment later and risk a collapse of the party as PP gets more and more popular and justin gets more and more hated.

We'll see.  I would agree with you that normally he would be completely stupid to go right now, but we'll see.  I don't think you can just rule out 'completely stupid' as being a choice he'll make on occasion  

[Army Guy]

27 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

Spectacularly dumb perhaps under a critical/realistic/intellectual lens, but not from that of the audience for which he's performing.  Railing about the WEF and central banking etc, and repeating simple slogans is very appealing to a certain type...

I'll probably end up voting conservative next election, but I'll do so knowing that Pierre Poilievre is a performer and a career politician, just like Trudeau.  I'm just hopeful that there's more under the hood in his case.   

Your pet hamster has more under the hood than justin does, all PP has to do is a few things to better the outcome expected from Canadians, whos standards are not that high to begin with...he'll do 3 terms then get booted like all the rest...so we will have 12 years for the liberals to bit*h and moan...like we conservatives did during justins rien...

[CdnFox]

Just now, Army Guy said:

Your pet hamster has more under the hood than justin does, all PP has to do is a few things to better the outcome expected from Canadians, whos standards are not that high to begin with...he'll do 3 terms then get booted like all the rest...so we will have 12 years for the liberals to bit*h and moan...like we conservatives did during justins rien...

Its interesting because of all the leaders in our relatively recent history PP probably is most likely to be able to pull off a 3rd term, which is exceedingly rare.   And by 'term' i mean a full 4 year term not just 2 minorities.  Most prime ministers last 8-10 years and get punted, But it is possible PP could be the exception.

The other interesting fact is that every census there's more seats allocated in the west. the population there tends go grow very fast. For example 4 out of the 5 new seats about to come on line are in bc and alberta. 

If pp lasts 3 terms, that'll be two more cenus's that happen. And even more seats in the west where the cpc tends to be most competative.

When i was a kid the western votes really onlly counted as a tiebreaker if the east was deadlocked. THey didn't matter other than that.

Now - it's very hard to win a majority without strong western support.  As we have seen since 2000 and it's growing even more so. More importantly it's possible to get a majority without quebec as harper's win in 2011 showed.  he won seats in quebec but would have has a majority if he didnt'.

And now 4 more seats (and quebec loses one).  And if that continues 8 more on top of that.  It's going to get more and more challenging for the liberals to win elections just running in ontario and quebec.

[Moonbox]

18 minutes ago, Army Guy said:

Your pet hamster has more under the hood than justin does, all PP has to do is a few things to better the outcome expected from Canadians, whos standards are not that high to begin with...he'll do 3 terms then get booted like all the rest...so we will have 12 years for the liberals to bit*h and moan...like we conservatives did during justins rien...

Yes, the bar is very, very low for the Conservatives to beat.  Self-destruction is the path to defeat for Pierre Poilievre.  If my original assumptions about him are correct, now that the real dumdums from the base have fallen in line behind him, I suspect he'll pivot away from their delusions and start talking more like Harper.  One can hope.  🥺

[Michael Hardner]

2 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

if my original assumptions about him are correct, now that the real dumdums from the base have fallen in line behind him, I suspect he'll pivot away from their delusions and start talking more like Harper.  One can hope.  🥺

Did you see the thread about porn being restricted in Canada under the conservatives ?

[Moonbox]

36 minutes ago, Queenmandy85 said:

We tend to forget that Prime Minister Trudeau was reluctant to get involved in politics. He grew up in that environment and had to be persuaded to run. 

Yeah so reluctant that it's the only real job he's ever had, he's been doing it for the last 16 years, has gone through multiple elections, and is refusing to step down despite most of Canada wanting him to.  

1 minute ago, Michael Hardner said:

Did you see the thread about porn being restricted in Canada under the conservatives ?

No I did not, but this is the sort of super-important thing that we must all be concerned about.  Please provide a link so I can provide my valued input.   

[Michael Hardner]

2 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

 No I did not, but this is the sort of super-important thing that we must all be concerned about.  Please provide a link so I can provide my valued input.   

 

[Perspektiv]

3 hours ago, Queenmandy85 said:

Do you get paid or accept payment for your work? Do you not serve yourself?  Do you get paid for not working? How many hours a week do you work? How many bosses do you have? Do they give you contradictory instructions? 

I'm a leader, and of course I get paid for my work.

But like many other leaders, am expected to put in unpaid hours. A lot of my work is thankless.

Part of being a leader.

Everything that goes wrong, is your fault. Everything that goes well, you won't get the appreciation you feel you may deserve for it.

Even on vacation, am on standby in event there is a small fire to put out. I had to find a balance to avoid conflict with my significant other.

An employee rushed to leave, since their shift is over, but you are the face of the business so need to tend to anything urgent. 

Major snowstorm. We hire plows, but if it's a gong show, I already know am showing up 2-3 hours early to clean up with the snowblower, so people can drive in. All unpaid.

Clients won't care much for you throwing your employee under the bus for leaving (or them for making an error), vs simply getting the job done.

I must serve my staff, if I expect them to serve me and the business.

My bosses, are all my clients, and my staff.

Heck, even some suppliers, who have stringent prerequisites in order to keep me at my price level.

I go home, and I got the wife and her daughter. 

Am surrounded by bosses.

I don't expect a thank you card. I am responsible for these people. Your satisfaction should be you knowing you're doing your job.

Their appreciation is icing on the cake.

All my wife does, is give contradictory instructions. That's what wifing is all about. Clients.

I have mastered the art of reading her mind correctly. I can also read a client from their "how busy are you?" Or the wife at "am fine".

Am hard wired to serve others. But I also understand I can't make everyone happy so I focus on the bottom line as my sense of direction. I give it my best and do what is best for these people.

A sound leader won't forget who is voting them in. Who is still choosing to believe in them.

They will humble themselves. Main reason I don't take credit for things I had a team of people help me do.

I don't throw people under the bus, either. I take the full bullet, and hope for a chance to make it right, and learn from my mistakes.

I make my bed, I sleep in it. 

I don't waste time s******g on my competitors. I don't even bad mouth them. I focus on what I do better, and me being swamped is me knowing people want results. 

Long story short, Trudeau is one of the worst leaders we have had as a country.

You listen to all your constituents.

He's that soup Nazi from the Seinfeld show, who tells you what you want and insists you will like it.

Reminds me of a manager I had as a teen, telling me how to sell:

"Customers don't know what they want." "If they are still on the line, you still have an opportunity."

He would teach you to raise your voice and talk fast, to avoid rebuttals, and to quickly challenge rebuttals and amplify the pressure. Most would panic buy, only to realize there are no returns when its too late.

That's Trudeau in a nutshell.

[Moonbox]

1 minute ago, Michael Hardner said:

 

It's almost too dumb to believe.  

[Michael Hardner]

Just now, Moonbox said:

It's almost too dumb to believe.  

I don't really believe it.  I don't even believe it's under consideration.  I would imagine a big pushback on this, possibly huge but if it's fake it's moot.

[CdnFox]

9 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

Did you see the thread about porn being restricted in Canada under the conservatives ?

If you thought there was a possibility that the conservatives or their supporters or most canadians would take a PRO child-porn position you haven't been paying attention  

5 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

It's almost too dumb to believe.  

Only for truly stupid people LOL -  as i just said, If you thought there was a possibility that the conservatives or their supporters or most canadians would take a PRO child-porn position you haven't been paying attention  

I love that you think that a 'more porn for kids' policy would go over better

[CdnFox]

I see justin just now announced  massive spending for housing in edmonton, and more money for quebec to fight auto theft.

I dunno - maybe the party just told him to get his numbers up or resign or something but he is DEFINITELY acting like it's election time.

[Moonbox]

3 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

If you thought there was a possibility that the conservatives or their supporters or most canadians would take a PRO child-porn position you haven't been paying attention  

Who's taking a pro child-porn position here?  Is that something you just made up, to argue with yourself about...again?  🤡

8 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

I don't really believe it.  I don't even believe it's under consideration.  I would imagine a big pushback on this, possibly huge but if it's fake it's moot.

A quiet, silent pushback.  There are hardly going to be a lot of dudes getting in front of mics to complain about having to show ID to watch their porn.  Think of all the poor incels...🤣