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With growth in clean energy 'unstoppable,' fossil fuels will peak by 2030, energy agency says


CdnFox

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https://www.cbc.ca/news/climate/iea-report-world-energy-outlook-2023-1.7005194

The way the world is powered will change dramatically by the end of the decade, thanks to surging demand for electric vehicles and clean energy technologies, a new report from the International Energy Agency says.

The IEA projects that by 2030: 

  • Nearly half of the world's electricity supply will come from renewable energy.

  • Ten times as many electric cars will be on the road.

  • Heat pumps and other electric heating systems will outsell fossil fuel boilers.

  • There will be three times as much investment in new offshore wind projects than coal- and gas-fired power plants.

  • Solar energy will generate more electricity than the entire U.S. power system currently does.

The projections, which are based on government policies that are already in place worldwide, are part of the IEA's annual World Energy Outlook, released Tuesday.

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Just a little eye-candy for the environmentally sensitive on the forum :)

Frankly it feels optimistic.  We've heard the whole 'peak oil' argument before and i suspect there will still be growth in the oil industry beyond 2030 given the demand we're seeing today. 

but - who knows.

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Of course there will be. They'll figure out there's money to be made from oil besides by burning it.
ie Plastic. Plastics are made from oil, people also gripe about plastic pollution because it doesn't degrade. So make things that need to last a long long time out of it, and you 'capture' the carbon in the oil instead of burning it. You'll see a hell of an increase in plastic based building materials soon.

Just one of the uses for oil where demand will increase.

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5 minutes ago, herbie said:

Of course there will be. They'll figure out there's money to be made from oil besides by burning it.
ie Plastic. Plastics are made from oil, people also gripe about plastic pollution because it doesn't degrade. So make things that need to last a long long time out of it, and you 'capture' the carbon in the oil instead of burning it. You'll see a hell of an increase in plastic based building materials soon.

Just one of the uses for oil where demand will increase.

If plastic consumption quintupled - it would still be light years less than what we burn :)   If that's all that's left of the oil industry in 2030 then it's a dead industry.

There are other uses for oil for sure. But - nothing that would justify anywhere near the current production.

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Just now, Nefarious Banana said:

You couldn't even push your electric vehicle into your garage without petroleum based components.  

Sure -  but if you think a can of oil is going to replace the 50 litres of gas you used to use i think you're being optimistic ;)

Not to mention 3/4 of the world burns oil or gas to produce the electricity in the first place.

I just don't see consumption going down that much or even peaking in the next 6 years.  Maybe 16 or 26 but i think that gas use will be expanding for a while even if it slows down a little.

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27 minutes ago, OftenWrong said:

:o:o:o

Whatever shall we do!!
 

:lol:

 

Burn in a firey lake as the earth vaporizes according to Greta and of course Justin.  I'd believe him more about the end of the world if he'd quit putting money in long term investments tho.  It's hard to believe when he says the world will end tomorrow while he's picking up 10 year GIC's.

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2 hours ago, CdnFox said:

Burn in a firey lake as the earth vaporizes according to Greta and of course Justin.  I'd believe him more about the end of the world if he'd quit putting money in long term investments tho.  It's hard to believe when he says the world will end tomorrow while he's picking up 10 year GIC's.

Yep. Somebody tell him, we got some primo real estate in Tuktoyaktuk going for dirt cheap. Will be a tropical resort when the Global Warming comes!   :D

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9 minutes ago, OftenWrong said:

I shit you people not . . . .

Canada could be a huge climate change winner

No diesel fuel to till the land/harvest the crops . . . . oh, wait!  no big deal, no fertilizer to make the crops grow.  

Typical CBC drivel . . . . oh, wait again,  no big deal, turn on CBC and get all the smelly Liberal fertilizer fresh from the mouth of Justin Trudeau.

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25 minutes ago, Nefarious Banana said:

No diesel fuel to till the land/harvest the crops . . . . oh, wait!  no big deal, no fertilizer to make the crops grow.  

Typical CBC drivel . . . . oh, wait again,  no big deal, turn on CBC and get all the smelly Liberal fertilizer fresh from the mouth of Justin Trudeau.

This is something Trudeau doesn't want people to know. Climate change is natural and cannot be stopped.

Look, it's going even faster now than all their stupid modeling software and theories could predict. Now they're scrambling for excuses to figure it out. Same as with other things. They insert fiction into the narrative to support some cockamamie theory.

"Gravity"

"Big Bang"

"Dark Matter"

"Evolution"

"Masks Help Covid"

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1 hour ago, Michael Hardner said:

Right because six years is forever right?

What a useless statement.

As usual - no argument to be made, just make a dumb statement and run away.

The whole point is 6 years is no time at all - we're not going to convert our economies to 'oilless' ones in that time or even get to the point where we can stop burning more oil that we do now.

But noooo - lets not have a discussion, by all means just say something !diotic and pointless and flee like the leftie you are.

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20 hours ago, Nefarious Banana said:

You couldn't even push your electric vehicle into your garage without petroleum based components.  

So?  This topic is about burning fossil fuels for energy, which I believe is >95% of all petroleum production. 

 

 

14 hours ago, Nefarious Banana said:

No diesel fuel to till the land/harvest the crops . . . . oh, wait!  no big deal, no fertilizer to make the crops grow.  

Those will be replaced when suitable alternatives are available. Nobody is suggesting that they be discontinued without replacement. 
 

13 hours ago, OftenWrong said:

They insert fiction into the narrative to support some cockamamie theory.

"Gravity"

"Big Bang"

"Dark Matter"

"Evolution"

"Masks Help Covid"

Lol are these all your examples of what you think are “cockamamie theories”?

 

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4 minutes ago, impartialobserver said:

I am not so sure about this.. Reaching peak consumption and/or production is hard to predict. 

It seems extremely far fetched.  Solar is great - in the summer.  In the south. During daytime.

We're not going to be able to produce nothing but electric cars by 2030 as some gov'ts want. That's just not a thing unless we have a major breakthrough in battery tech.

Most of the world doesn't have canada's hydro reserves - they ain't gonna all build nukes or hydrogen reactors to keep up with population growth by 2030.

And we don't have electric jets just yet :)  Nor are we going back to sailing ships for world transport of goods.

Maybe if the population shinks?  But otherwise, i just don't see it.

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2 minutes ago, BeaverFever said:

So?  This topic is about burning fossil fuels for energy, which I believe is >95% of all petroleum production. 
 

Good lord no. About 30 percent is power generation, about 30 percent is transportation, and about 30 percent is industrial.  The rest is split up between residential and commercial applications.

I have no idea where you got the idea that 98 percent was for energy but it's nothing like that.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/244429/us-fossil-fuel-energy-consumption-by-sector/

Quote

Those will be replaced when suitable alternatives are available. Nobody is suggesting that they be discontinued without replacement. 

In 6 years? nope. And they are absolutely suggesting it would be discontinued without replacement if they're thinking we're going to pull it off in 6 years.

I just don't see how they can even come close to stopping growth in 6 years without a halt in population growth.

 

 

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9 minutes ago, impartialobserver said:

I am ok with less fossil fuels but good old realism gets in the way. We are just not at the point where we can phase out fossil fuels and the products made from them.. not yet. For example.. plastics. We can recycle plastics but even that has some pretty sizeable limitations as of yet. 

I think that nobody expects there to be NO oil - as you say, plastics, cosmetics etc.   But if we stopped burning it for energy or transportation that would wipe out something like 60 percent of it's use. 

But - i don't think we're even in a position to end the expansion of its use right now, or in 6 years

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