Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives widen their lead over Justin Trudeau’s Liberals with vast majority of Canadians wanting change, poll suggests

[CdnFox]

https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2023/06/13/pierre-poilievres-conservatives-widen-their-lead-with-vast-majority-of-canadians-wanting-change-poll-suggests.html

The latest survey from Abacus Data has Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives leading the Liberals by seven percentage points, while more than 80 per cent of respondents said its time for a new government in Ottawa.

OTTAWA—Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives are pulling further ahead of the governing Liberal party in national voting intentions amid a widespread desire for change across the country, a new poll suggests.

Here's the abacus poll details: https://abacusdata.ca/canadian-politics-polling-abacus-data-june-2023/

Abacus tends to come in a little low for the conservatives. That's not necessarily bias, but some methodologies are going to produce slightly different results consistantly, and if there's 5 polls done the same week generally speaking Abacus will show the worst results for the cpc by a small amount.

ALL the polls seem to suggest that people are slowing becoming more comfortable with PP and at the same time more fed up with Justin Trudeau and the liberals and what they are doing to Canada.

37.5 percent is about the borderline for a majority gov't for the CPC, after that point the chances of a majority start rocketing up very quickly.   And  it is EASILY possible for a good campaign to pick up 5 percent above polls at the start.

So right now Pierre has a path to a majority gov't. I suspect by 2024 people are going to be so sick of the libs that the CPC will already be polling in majority territory. 

If it goes to 2025 for an election it could be a severe blow out for the CPC.  I suspect that Jaggers is going to be afraid of that happening and going down with the liberal ship, so after he qualifies for his pension in 2024 i suspect they'll be looking to pull the plug on the non-coalition coalition. 

Election fall 2024? I'd say the chances are climbing  

Edited July 8, 2023 by CdnFox

[Guest]

I would honestly vote for Bubbles from Trailer Park Boys at this point. 

Anything is better than Trudeau. 

However the slight lead, tells me people are weary Poilievre will bring more of the same divisive tactics. 

He tones down his message, and he mops the floor with Trudeau. 

[I am Groot]

It's meaningless at this point in time. They need their popularity to rise above forty to get a majority or they won't be allowed to form a government. 

Plus, if Trudeau quits in a year or so and the Liberals get a new leader much of that demand for change will fade. The Liberals ruled for 15 years in Ontario by simply dumping Dalton McGuinty when he got highly unpopular and bringing in someone new. 

[CdnFox]

42 minutes ago, Perspektiv said:

I would honestly vote for Bubbles from Trailer Park Boys at this point. 

Anything is better than Trudeau. 

However the slight lead, tells me people are weary Poilievre will bring more of the same divisive tactics. 

He tones down his message, and he mops the floor with Trudeau. 

PP's popularity has been rising the whole time as well.

I think people WERE leery of him initially but as they get to see more of him they're starting to come around. People always say they don't like confrontational politics or negative politics - but they always vote for it. 

time is not on justin's side.  The more people see of PP the more they seem to think "he may be a dick, but he seems like a pretty competent dick".

[CdnFox]

43 minutes ago, I am Groot said:

It's meaningless at this point in time. They need their popularity to rise above forty to get a majority or they won't be allowed to form a government. 

 

That is just patently wrong. '

First, Even at 38 percent the chances of them forming a majority is greater than the chances of them not forming a majority.  40 percent is almost certainly a COMFORTABLE majority.  They don't need to be above that at all.

and secondly,  If they fail to get a majority and get them minority OF COURSE they can still form gov't.  Unless it's a bare minority the bloc will almost certainly agree to not vote against them. It's in their interests. 

All they have to do is survive 6 months. After that the GG will call an election instead of allowing a coalition by tradition. And the LAST thing the libs OR the dips want is to be seen as being a coalition during the election, which is why the libs always dodge the question hard when asked during elections.

A strong minority or better will see the CPC in power.  And they're already polling right on the edge of that.  Considering how much campaigns matter they're in a very good position, with two more years to go.  They'd have a decent chance right now with a good campaign of walking away with a majority.

[Queenmandy85]

As of July 2, according to 338, the grits would be projected to win 144 seats to the socreds 134 in an election held on July 2.

[CdnFox]

38 minutes ago, Queenmandy85 said:

As of July 2, according to 338, the grits would be projected to win 144 seats to the socreds 134 in an election held on July 2.

Oh you mean the site owned by CBC?  LOL

They have a funny 'weighting' system for which pollsters they listen to. Lets look at the actual polls they post for June and july

 

 

So - EVERYONE has the cpc above 5 points ahead - some as high as 8

But the 338 prediction is 3.    You see the problem?   Their weighting is such that the highest lib numbers are put against the lowest cpc numbers, but when you look at individual polls EVERYONE agrees the cpc is at least 2 times as high as the 338 aggregate.

And the latest ledger poll we're just discussing isn't posted yet, which is fine - they update sundays.

So when you crunch the ACTUAL numbers it's a strong minority for the CPC.  With a decent campaign they're into majority territory.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, CdnFox said:

"he may be a dick, but he seems like a pretty competent dick".

Competent dick or rude dick, as long as he gets the job done and minimizes internal drama and puts a tight noose on corruption, I would vote for him for life.

We have had such a low standard for the last few years, honestly, "don't break anything and don't touch anything you don't intend to fix" would likely be the provided disclaimer. 

Forget progress. Just "don't f*** s*** up."

His bar is so low, he just has to show up and not be a m*ron. 

[OftenWrong]

34 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

With a decent campaign they're into majority territory

Plus, now that Poillievre's fixed his glasses and hair, he'll get more of the gay and women's votes.

 

[OftenWrong]

7 minutes ago, Perspektiv said:

His bar is so low, he just has to show up and not be a m*ron. 

Plus, it would be fitting if Justin Trudeau was defeated by someone named Pierre.

[Michael Hardner]

1 hour ago, CdnFox said:

Oh you mean the site owned by CBC?  LOL

 

Got a cite for this?

So it doesn't matter if the CPC is ahead in the polls if it's losing in seat rich Ontario and Quebec.

And 338 themselves publish their accuracy Metrics.

But it's 100% aligned that you wouldn't support any source that doesn't produce information to make you happy.

You're like someone who looks at a gif of the sun when they want the weather report, I suppose.

[Queenmandy85]

It isn't about the popular vote. It's all about the seats. Even if the socreds win more seats than the liberals, unless they get a majority, they are not going to be able to act on Mr. Poilievre's bizarre promises. The only splinter party who might support them is the BQ and that would be an exciting bit of entertainment.

2 hours ago, CdnFox said:

Oh you mean the site owned by CBC?

In my conversation with my MP last week, we talked about Mr. Poilievre's promise to defund the CBC. He told me that when he ran in 2015, knocking on doors was discouraging because so many houses had signs that read "I vote CBC." He wins every election inspite of that because he is such a good MP.

 

Edited July 8, 2023 by Queenmandy85

[WestCanMan]

57 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

Got a cite for this?

So it doesn't matter if the CPC is ahead in the polls if it's losing in seat rich Ontario and Quebec.

And 338 themselves publish their accuracy Metrics.

But it's 100% aligned that you wouldn't support any source that doesn't produce information to make you happy.

You're like someone who looks at a gif of the sun when they want the weather report, I suppose.

The pollsters always predict that the libs will win considerably more votes and yet the CPC actually won the popular vote the last two elections in a row. 

Canadian pollsters are no more reliable or honest than our MSM. "Polls" are just a prop that the MSM uses to say "the racists and populists are in second place, the golden child is winning! Love is triumphing over hate!" 

[Michael Hardner]

26 minutes ago, WestCanMan said:

The pollsters always predict that the libs will win considerably more votes and yet the CPC actually won the popular vote the last two elections in a row. 

Canadian pollsters are no more reliable or honest than our MSM. "Polls" are just a prop that the MSM uses to say "the racists and populists are in second place, the golden child is winning! Love is triumphing over hate!" 

You're complaining about honesty, and yet your statements are way off.

I decided to check the polls in the last 2 days before the last election, 1/3 had the Tories winning, 2/3 had the Liberals winning. Only one poll out of 13 overstated the vote for either party, and that was for Liberal s.  

They make their money based on how accurate they are, so it doesn't make sense that they would be lazy or dishonest or no one would believe them.

Of course there's always a bunch of people who sit back with their feet up and say that the polls are dishonest or lazy... and we all count on you guys to be out there filling the room with noise.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Canadian_federal_election

Edited July 8, 2023 by Michael Hardner

[I am Groot]

4 hours ago, OftenWrong said:

Plus, now that Poillievre's fixed his glasses and hair, he'll get more of the gay and women's votes.

 

?

[I am Groot]

6 hours ago, CdnFox said:

That is just patently wrong. '

First, Even at 38 percent the chances of them forming a majority is greater than the chances of them not forming a majority.  40 percent is almost certainly a COMFORTABLE majority.  They don't need to be above that at all.

It depends on how the votes fall, especially if the NDP vote remains low.

 

6 hours ago, CdnFox said:

A strong minority or better will see the CPC in power.  

Will it?

But here’s what’s new. There is a real chance of them forming a government next time, even if they don’t win the most seats: finishing behind the Conservatives, that is, not only in the popular vote, but also in seats won. 

Assuming the NDP were game to repeat the arrangement, the Liberals could make a persuasive case that they stood a greater chance of forming a stable government than the Conservatives. Given the special loathing the present Conservative Leader, Pierre Poilievre, excites among progressives, moreover – the sense, often expressed, that he represents something new and dark in Canadian politics – they may well feel entitled, if not morally obliged, to do whatever it takes to keep him away from the reins of power.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-rule-by-the-second-place-the-coming-crisis-of-legitimacy-in-federal/

[Michael Hardner]

 

The new look...

What do you think guys, does he look like the kind of guy who would steal your girl on Saturday night?

[I am Groot]

12 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

 

The new look...

What do you think guys, does he look like the kind of guy who would steal your girl on Saturday night?

It's an improvement, but he needs to do more about that hair. It's less shiny now but still combed back. A more casual look would be brushed across the forehead. I think he should grow a beard, actually. I think that would give him an older look.

I remember when McGuinty first started. He had glasses and bad hair. They gave him a makeover that included dumping the glasses and better hair. They also changed his voice, so it sounded deeper, and he won the next election.

Yes. People are exactly that shallow. I think half the disdain felt towards him is because he looks like a smartass little nerd from the math club, and all the cool kids can't help curling their lips in contempt. He has a couple of goofy positions on WEF and the bank of canada that will amount to nothing, and on the other side of the ledger is pro choice and gay friendly. But there's more active dislike for him on the Left than there was for deeply religious Christers who were defiantly anti-abortion like Scheer and Harper.

Edited July 8, 2023 by I am Groot

[SpankyMcFarland]

There’s nothing overwhelming about these numbers until they are converted into seats in Canada’s FPTP system. The Conservatives are getting just over a third of the popular vote here. Whoever wins should bear in mind the large majority of voters who didn’t choose them before contemplating any radical change. 

[SpankyMcFarland]

18 minutes ago, I am Groot said:

But there's more active dislike for him on the Left than there was for deeply religious Christers who were defiantly anti-abortion like Scheer and Harper.

I’d say most people recognize his ability. He must be one of the best debaters in the House.
 

Was Harper ‘defiantly anti-abortion’? He didn’t want his MPs talking about it. 

[I am Groot]

6 minutes ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

I’d say most people recognize his ability. He must be one of the best debaters in the House.
 

Was Harper ‘defiantly anti-abortion’? He didn’t want his MPs talking about it. 

Yeah, he kept them quiet about it but there was never any doubts about how HE felt about abortion. The man is an Evangelical Christian. So there were deep suspicions that once he got in he would bring in a law against abortion. And maybe against gays and lesbians. That he never tried has not lessoned the paranoia among the Left toward every Conservative leader.

[SpankyMcFarland]

Parties should go into coalition more often in Canada. This is even more appropriate these days when the major parties are significantly less dominant on their own than they used to be in popular vote terms. 

22 minutes ago, I am Groot said:

Yeah, he kept them quiet about it but there was never any doubts about how HE felt about abortion. The man is an Evangelical Christian. So there were deep suspicions that once he got in he would bring in a law against abortion. And maybe against gays and lesbians. That he never tried has not lessoned the paranoia among the Left toward every Conservative leader.

But does it matter how a politician feels about something if that’s not reflected in their political behaviour? 

Edited July 8, 2023 by SpankyMcFarland

[CdnFox]

6 hours ago, Perspektiv said:

Competent dick or rude dick, as long as he gets the job done and minimizes internal drama and puts a tight noose on corruption, I would vote for him for life.

 

I think a lot of people are seeing it that way.

Harper was a dick and had all the personality of a yeast infection.  But - he got the job done and people loved him for that.

 

[eyeball]

6 hours ago, Perspektiv said:

...and puts a tight noose on corruption, I would vote for him for life.

So would I but I'm not expecting much given the lousy job at instituting accountability and transparency his old boss Harper did. The SNC Lavalin affair should not have happened even with a simple strangle-hold on corruption.

[Army Guy]

1 hour ago, Michael Hardner said:

 

The new look...

What do you think guys, does he look like the kind of guy who would steal your girl on Saturday night?

Well he has nice hair, not sure about the socks, got to have the socks seems those are minimum requirements for Canadians.. lets not forget will he dance in the gay pride parade ?.... .Now can he lecture other nations leaders about LGBTQ rights that we will have to wait and see...