Evil Russian Empire invades defenseless Ukraine.

[Aristides]

2 minutes ago, Dougie93 said:

as if NATO is in control of anything here

America is not in control, so NATO is not in control

but Turkey has a separate role, which predates NATO and even the Second World War

it's called the Montreux Convention of 1936

The NATO charter also applies to Turkey. No one is in control right now, least of all Putin. He has dug himself a giant hole and with any luck he will get buried in it.

The Montreax Convention puts limits on military shipping.

[Dougie93]

14 minutes ago, Aristides said:

The NATO charter also applies to Turkey.

the Washington Treaty doesn't actually stipulate that a NATO member has to contribute anything specific

even if Article V is invoked, it doesn't stipulate what any member has to contribute

so like America is the only country to ever Invoke Article V, for Afghanistan

what did NATO actually provide ?

not that much

so just invoking Article V has already been proven to be underwhelming in terms of effects

the public is vastly overrating Article V as being something that is actually preventing anything

[-TSS-]

A bank run  has begun Russia. People are despretaly emptying their accounts and changing their money into a foreign currency before the rouble becomes worthless.

[Aristides]

48 minutes ago, Dougie93 said:

the Washington Treaty doesn't actually stipulate that a NATO member has to contribute anything specific

even if Article V is invoked, it doesn't stipulate what any member has to contribute

so like America is the only country to ever Invoke Article V, for Afghanistan

what did NATO actually provide ?

not that much

so just invoking Article V has already been proven to be underwhelming in terms of effects

the public is vastly overrating Article V as being something that is actually preventing anything

Article V is more in Europe's interest than the US (as it was originally) and it has never been invoked there. No NATO nations were directly threatened in Afghanistan other than by the possibility of Afghan based terrorists. This is completely different.

One could easily say that Article 5 was was what prevented the Cold War from becoming a hot war. Hopefully it will do the same today.

Edited February 28, 2022 by Aristides

[Dougie93]

15 minutes ago, Aristides said:

One could easily say that Article 5 was was what prevented the Cold War from becoming a hot war. Hopefully it will do the same today.

very different situation then

only 12 members, 277,000 American troops on the ground in Europe underpinning

a clear mission, a unified America, a unitary chain of command

and a purely defensive alliance along the trace of the Inner German Border

this is a much different NATO, much different world

that being said, the Russians are not the Soviets.  Russia is a just a fraction of that

so it's not NATO which is deterring them per se

it's Poland to the west, and Turkey to the south

those are Russia's two main opponents now, and the two countries which are also the main allies of Ukraine

[Aristides]

I think it is a sweet irony that Putin's effort to put a nail in NATO's coffin has in fact resulted in its rebirth.

Considering what the Soviets did to Poland, it is no wonder they joined NATO. Same goes for the other former Soviet satellites in Eastern Europe. Seriously, what threat do Poland and Turkey pose to Russia. Is the Russian military that bad? Watching the Ukraine during past four days, maybe it is.

Edited February 28, 2022 by Aristides

[Aristides]

Sweden offering military aid to Ukraine for the first time since the Soviet invasion of Finland in 1939.

[DogOnPorch]

Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union in 1939.

[DogOnPorch]

Levity...

 

[Dougie93]

artillery rocket fire in the Battle of Kharkiv

sounds like BM-21 Grad 122mm

 

[Dougie93]

Russian MT-LB vs Ukrainian MRAP

 

[Dougie93]

Russian POW's from the 25th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade, which is 6th Combined Arms Army

[Dougie93]

Ukrainian CCO special forces hunting saboteurs in Kiev

 

[Aristides]

53 minutes ago, DogOnPorch said:

Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union in 1939.

This the first time Sweden has offered military aid to anyone since 1939.

[DogOnPorch]

43 minutes ago, Aristides said:

This the first time Sweden has offered military aid to anyone since 1939.

 

Sweden while neutral during WW2 only remained that way as a result of a free passage agreement and access to Sweden's iron ore. They avoided an invasion thusly.

Finland was an Axis member, of course, starting in 1941. But it refused to advance further than their historically claimed territory. They were also the north side of the Siege of Leningrad...Summer of 1941 to early 1944.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transit_of_German_troops_through_Finland_and_Sweden

[Dougie93]

current situation map of Russian forces in Ukraine

in the south east Russian forces are moving from the Kharkiv and Mariipol fronts to attempt an encirclement

there is a column of almost 1000 Russian vehicles driving south from Belarus to Kiev

[Dougie93]

more BM-21 Grad 122mm rocket fire in the Battle of Kharkiv

 

[CITIZEN_2015]

Ukrainian army and civilian defense will repel this aggressions by murderous Russian military bastards.

[Dougie93]

Putin has altered the Russian nuclear forces alert status

Russia does not use Defense Condition ( DEFCON ) like America

the Russian alert status is binary, either 'Peacetime' or 'Combat'

'Peacetime' alert has the Russian strategic deterrent in a launch on warning mode, which is launch only if attacked

under 'Peacetime' alert status, no offensive use of nuclear weapons can be authorized

by upgrading to 'Combat' alert status, Putin now has authority to launch offensive nuclear strikes

thus 'Combat' alert mode is for the use of tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield

this would include Oniks supersonic or Kalibr long ranged cruise missiles with 100kt thermonuclear warheads

Iskander-M tactical ballistic missiles with 50kt thermonuclear warhead

Edited February 28, 2022 by Dougie93

[Dougie93]

3 minutes ago, CITIZEN_2015 said:

Ukrainian army and civilian defense will repel this aggressions by murderous Russian military bastards.

in the two places the Russians would have expected to have little trouble overruning

Kharkiv & Mariupol

the Russians have instead faced the fiercest resistance and are as a result bogged down

Putin is in way over his head here

there is a real threat of him resorting to Nuclear Deescalation if this continues to deterioate

that would be the use of a tactical nuclear weapon as a kind of warning shot, to force NATO to negotiate

[Dougie93]

as Nuclear Deescalation is a warning shot in effect

the Russians would not likely drop the tactical nuclear weapon on Ukraine itself in the initial phase

it is more like a live fire nuclear test to demonstrate resolve to use nuclear weapons imminently

so perhaps they would detonate the weapon out over the Black Sea at high altitude

there's no way to be sure, if they were about to be overrun on the battlefield in Ukraine

at that point they may choose demonstrate resolve

with the use of a small tactical nuclear artillery weapon directly on a military target in Ukraine

[Dougie93]

another option for Nuclear Deescalation is to demonstrate resolve at the strategic level

to wit, threaten NATO directly by the breach of the Test Ban Treaty

so this would be a live fire test of a strategic warhead at Novaya Zemlya in the arctic

similar to what Khrushchev did in the Cold War with RDS-220 on 30 October 1961 leading up the Cuban Missile Crisis

 

[-TSS-]

30 years ago the failed coup attempt by the Janajev-junta precipitated the disintegration of the Soviet Union.

It could well be that this adventure will not only be the end of Putin, that is 100% certain that his days as Russian-leader are numbered, but the end of the whole regime as well. 

[CITIZEN_2015]

24 minutes ago, Dougie93 said:

i

Putin is in way over his head here

there is a real threat of him resorting to Nuclear Deescalation if this continues to deterioate

About 6 feet over his head, I hope.

Use of nuclear weapon where? On Ukrainian cities? This would be mass murder which will guarantee his hanging. Use it in the front lines? No because his own troops only few miles away will die too. Use them on Nato for no reason because Nato has not intervened militarily? Then half of Russia's population will evaporate including Putin himself because Nato altogether has a lot more nuclear weapons than damn Russia.

[Dougie93]

8 minutes ago, CITIZEN_2015 said:

About 6 feet over his head, I hope.

Use of nuclear weapon where? On Ukrainian cities? This would be mass murder which will guarantee his hanging. Use it in the front lines? No because his own troops only few miles away will die too. Use them on Nato for no reason because Nato has not intervened militarily? Then half of Russia's population will evaporate including Putin himself because Nato altogether has a lot more nuclear weapons than damn Russia.

no, Russia has more thermonuclear warheads

NATO could attempt a theater thermonuclear counterforce perhaps

but the Russians maintain survivable second strike

Russian ballistic missile submarines in the Barents Sea & under the polar ice cap

there is more than enough firepower on a single ballistic missile submarine

to reduce all of Western Europe or North America to an irradiated wasteland in 10 minutes

the Russians likely have at least three at sea at any moment

at least one would be hidden be under the ice in the arctic, but possibly all three at this point

 

Edited February 28, 2022 by Dougie93