Evil Russian Empire invades defenseless Ukraine.

[Dougie93]

that complete idiot Lukahsenko in Minsk

has given a briefing to his General Staff, which was filmed

on the film is the map of the operation, showing the arrows as to where they are going

most of it was obvious, Kiev, Kharkiv, Kherson

but there was one set of arrows which we didn't know

that was from the forces breaking out of Crimea

pointing towards a link up with Transnistria in Moldova

talk about OSINT

[Dougie93]

Ukrainian reporter confronts Boris Johnson

demands NATO impose a No Fly Zone

accuses the United Kingdom of cowardice in effect

it might cause World War Three ?

she says it has already started

 

 

[Dougie93]

ghosts of Belgian Neutrality

this is how the First World War broke out

the Liberal government in the United Kingdom did not want to intercede

yet slowly but surely they were dragged into the war

as the public clambered for war in light of their brutal subjugation of the Belgians

Churchill was in the coalition government

he said, if they didn't intervene in the war, he would cross the floor to the Tories

this is how the Liberal government of the day was incited to join the war, in the name of Belgian Neutrality

thus is how over 600,000 Canadian soldiers ended up in Flanders

56,638 of them killed, 141,418 wounded, taken prisoner, or missing

by the end of the war at Mons,  on 11 November 1918

Edited March 2, 2022 by Dougie93

[Dougie93]

so I always wondered how this would go, since Ukraine is between two Russian Military Districts

Western Military District headquartered at Petrograd

Southern Military District headquartered at Rostov-on-Don

who would lead the operation ?

the answer is neither, there are two completely separate operations

Southern Military District is running the operation in the south, Donbass, Crimea, Black Sea coast

Western Military District is running the operation in the north, Kiev to Kharikiv, the hot zone

the Russians are apparently doing well in the south, that operation is making progress, is oscar mike

then in the north the Russians are conceding that the underestimated the Ukrainians

but now they are bringing the main force, and they fell like they have things back on track

[Dougie93]

Belarus has announced that they are jettisoning their Non Nuclear State protections

Belarus is now officially a Nuclear Power

hosting Russian nuclear weapons on their territory

here come the theater thermonuclear forces into play now

first stages of Nuclear Deescalation, moving the tactical nuclear weapons into position against NATO

[Dougie93]

 

[Dougie93]

taking fire from a Russian tank in urban terrain

 

[Dougie93]

Rick Hillier was gung-ho to fight the Afghanistan War

he's gung-ho to fight World War Three next

 

[Dougie93]

the Russians have a serious problem here now

they deployed a 200,000 man ground force expecting a walkover

now they are facing a population fully mobilized for total war

so now the Russians are surrounded and massively outnumbered in a riled up hornet's nest

for whatever reason, the Russian air force is not flying, so there's only minimal air support

this is what happens when your try to take a Boutique Army to war

there are some shiny models in the showroom

but behind that, there is nothing in the warehouse

the Russians lack logistics, command & control, deconfliction, precision etc

it's a Potenmkin Village, a facade

all they really have as leverage in the end, is their thermonuclear weapons

all war is logistics plus human will

the Russians don't got it

even if they take Ukraine, they're not going to be able to hold it

this is all leading to Nuclear Deescalation in the end

the nukes are the only thing they got at the end of the day

explosive lenses are reliable to implode plutonium pits into second stage lithium deuteride fusion

that's the only thing they can rely on, because it's 1950's tech

Edited March 2, 2022 by Dougie93

[Dougie93]

The Mysterious Case of the Missing Russian Air Force

Justin Bronk

28 February 20227 Minute Read

Share

 

---

On the fifth day of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, one of many unanswered questions is why Russia has launched a military campaign at huge cost with maximalist objectives, and then declined to use the vast majority of its fixed wing combat aircraft.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine began as expected in the early hours of 24 February: a large salvo of cruise and ballistic missiles destroyed the main ground-based early warning radars throughout Ukraine. The result was to effectively blind the Ukrainian Air Force (UkrAF), and in some cases also hinder aircraft movements by cratering runways and taxiways at its major airbases. Strikes also hit several Ukrainian long-range S-300P surface-to-air missile (SAM) batteries, which had limited mobility due to a long-term lack of spares. These initial stand-off strikes followed the pattern seen in many US-led interventions since the end of the Cold War. The logical and widely anticipated next step, as seen in almost every military conflict since 1938, would have been for the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) to mount large-scale strike operations to destroy the UkrAF. With its early warning chain blinded and some runways cratered, the UkrAF was left vulnerable to raids by strike aircraft like the Su-34 with guided munitions, or even multirole Su-30 fighters with predominantly unguided munitions. If present in significant numbers, escorting Su-35 and Su-30 fighters would have overwhelmed the Ukrainian fighters, even if they did manage to take off for sorties conducted at very low altitudes with limited situational awareness.

This did not happen.

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/mysterious-case-missing-russian-air-force

Edited March 2, 2022 by Dougie93

[Iceni warrior]

22 minutes ago, Dougie93 said:

The Mysterious Case of the Missing Russian Air Force

Justin Bronk

28 February 20227 Minute Read

 

 

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/mysterious-case-missing-russian-air-force

That's a pretty damning description of the state of Russian command structures and training.

Air Supremacy is usually the first goal for invading forces and it doesn't appear to have been achieved yet after a week's fighting.

Would you say that is mostly a result of Russian restraint, hoping for a quick surrender without too much loss of life, or Russia's inability due to a lack of logistics and inadequate training?

 

[Dougie93]

11 minutes ago, Iceni warrior said:

That's a pretty damning description of the state of Russian command structures and training.

Air Supremacy is usually the first goal for invading forces and it doesn't appear to have been achieved yet after a week's fighting.

Would you say that is mostly a result of Russian restraint, hoping for a quick surrender without too much loss of life, or Russia's inability due to a lack of logistics and inadequate training?

 

it's almost as if it is political

it's like the Russian air force is slow walking this, because they oppose Putin

this would explain why the Russian navy is not doing much neither

nor is there much Spetsnaz being employed in this fight

it's almost as if the elite forces of Russia are refusing to go down with Putin

the only guys he can intimidate into fighting at all, are the lowly conscripts of the conventional ground troops

Edited March 2, 2022 by Dougie93

[Dougie93]

basically, Putin only has two real levers here

he has massed artillery to raze cities to the ground from standoff range

and he has thermonuclear weapons, to take that to the next level

Edited March 2, 2022 by Dougie93

[Dougie93]

and if Ukraine starts to receive the drones in quantity ?

the Turkish & Israeli drones like Azerbaijan has ?

the tide could turn fast

this could become a drone war

and then the Russians are going to get mauled

think about how a Loitering Munition works

you need no training to operate one, it's like running your iPhone

you are some Ukrainian civilian, I give you a box of these ?

you can launch these from your apartment, control them with your laptop

it flies out over the battlefield, it's too small for the Russians to detect

you just fly it around looking for something to kill with the camera on the drone

you see something worth killing, you drop the drone on it, the warhead is like a Javelin missile

wash rinse repeat

the Russians are using 1980's tech

forty years old

if at some point 21st century drone tech is brought to bear agains them

the Russians will get cut to pieces

Edited March 2, 2022 by Dougie93

[Iceni warrior]

45 minutes ago, Dougie93 said:

it's almost as if it is political

it's like the Russian air force is slow walking this, because they oppose Putin

this would explain why the Russian navy is not doing much neither

nor is there much Spetsnaz being employed in this fight

it's almost as if the elite forces of Russia are refusing to go down with Putin

the only guys he can intimidate into fighting at all, are the lowly conscripts of the conventional ground troops

So what are the chances of Putin being obeyed if he ordered the use of theatre nuclear weapons? I'm guessing that they are not in the hands of conscripts.

[Dougie93]

4 minutes ago, Iceni warrior said:

So what are the chances of Putin being obeyed if he ordered the use of theatre nuclear weapons? I'm guessing that they are not in the hands of conscripts.

exactly

the Strategic Rocket Troops are hand picked for their reliability

but it's more than that

with nuclear weapons, it's all muscle memory

a missileer is conditioned to launch the weapon before he considers the ramifications

[Dougie93]

it's like on 26 September 1983

it's not that Stan Petrov refused to do his duty

if he had thought it was a real American attack, he would have launched on warning

all Petrov said is that he didn't trust the Oko satellite

the Oko satellite was janky, he knew

so all he said was;  this is a false alarm, he did not believe that was a real Minuteman III inbound

Edited March 2, 2022 by Dougie93

[Dougie93]

so now it becomes a question of which Russian nuclear forces are most reliable ?

so again, I would say that is the ground troop conscripts

Putin is using tactical ballistic & cruise missiles instead of the unreliable air force

so I would surmise that is what he would resort to with nuclear weapons as well

which most likely means Iskander road mobile tactical ballistic missile with 50kt warhead

and P-800 Oniks road mobile supersonic cruise missile with 100kt warhead

[Dougie93]

just for reference, this is a 100 kiloton thermonuclear detonation here

Operation Dominic Yukon, 8 May 1962

 

[Dougie93]

50 kilotons, airburst

Operation Dominic Muskegon, three days later, on 11 May 1962

 

 

[Dougie93]

Operation Crossroads Baker

25 July 1946

this is only 22 kilotons

a tactical yield warhead

the size of the Nagasaki "Fat Man" bomb

 

[Dougie93]

in terms of a thermonuclear strike against Canada as part of NORAD ?

using Toronto as a reference target ?

everything south of Bloor Street is gone

Bloor Street to Steeles Ave is completely wrecked

north of Steeles Ave, you are probably okay

[Dougie93]

it's actually more survivable than you think

similar to being hit by a tornado

stay in your home

flying glass is the biggest threat

tape up your windows

get in the bathtub

in terms of radiation ?

just taping up thick plastic sheets over the window & doors is actually very effective

and drink vodka, lots of vodka, it's a prophylactic against radiation poisoning

[Dougie93]

you wont have to stay in your home forever

but right after the strike

strontium-90 is going to fall in the form of black rain

so you need to stay indoors until that abates

[Dougie93]

lots of people survived Hiroshima & Nagasaki

lived to a ripe old age after

most people died of infection from burns

don't get burned

be indoors,  follow some simple steps, you can survive this too

thinking of the long terms effect of the fallout ?

if you dodge the black rain

after that, it's no worse than being a pack a day smoker

Edited March 2, 2022 by Dougie93