Evil Russian Empire invades defenseless Ukraine.

[Dougie93]

Putin is not a politician, he is a KGB Lt. Colonel

so doubting his resolve to use nuclear weapons is probably not a safe stance to take

if he feels it is necessary, he will use them

[Dougie93]

the Russian doctrine is not the same as NATO

Russian doctrine is to use tactical nuclear weapons just like any other tactical weapon

the way to make it even more convincing

is that Putin would release authority to launch the tactical nuclear strike to his battlefield commanders

so if they are about to be overrun by the Ukrainians, they have the nuclear option at their immediate disposal

these can be very small nuclear warheads in the grand scheme of things

even as as small as a tactical nuclear 152mm gun artillery shell

something similar to the American "Atomic Annie "

 

[Dougie93]

when you are talking tactical nuclear weapons

these are not nuclear deterrent weapons

"tactical" means "to fight"

so these tactical or battlefield weapons are meant to be used

as a result, the warhead yields are quite small, compared to an ICBM strategic warhead for example

tactical nuclear warheads are generally in the 1 to 10 kiloton range

so these are not doomsday bombs which could never be used

America used to detonate bombs like this right outside Las Vegas in the 1950's

my father used to sit in his backyard at night and watch the nuclear flashes in the sky from Los Angeles as a boy

[Dougie93]

the politicians, press & public are all vastly underestimating the odds of tactical nuclear weapons being used here

these are not doomsday bombs which the Russians would be too terrified to use

 

so the idea that the Russians, if they were losing badly, would never resort to the use of, is deeply misguided

[Dougie93]

in terms of how America could respond

under the updated Obama Doctrine 'SIOP'

America could, but would not necessarily respond with nuclear weapons

the Obama Doctrine is in essence a return to the 1960's doctrine of Flexible Response

America would more likely leverage NATO's conventional superiority, and decline to use the B61 right away

but it would probably be World War Three fully engaged at that point

and it would begin to escalate to something like the Cuban Missile Crisis on steroids

[Dougie93]

as to NATO tactical nuclear weapons

that is the B61 free fall tactical thermonuclear bomb

FUFO "Fully Fused Option"

that is "Dial-a-Yield"

the B61 can be set to detonate at a yield as low as 0.3 kilotons for battlefield use

all the way up to 300 kilotons yield for theater thermonuclear counterforce option

these bombs can be dropped by any NATO aircraft, including Canadian CF-18's

the B61's are stored at four locations

the Netherlands, Germany, Italy & Turkey

[Dougie93]

due to exponentially fiercer resistance than they were clearly expecting

the Russians may be downsizing now, calling an audible

taking all of Ukraine is a bridge too far

yet there is no going back now

so consolidate all forces to the east of Dnieper to make an East Ukraine with a trace along the defensible river line

[CITIZEN_2015]

• Civilian death toll now stands at 352 people, including 14 children, Ukraine’s health ministry says.

[CITIZEN_2015]

Ukraine should not have given up its arsenal of nuclear weapons. Russia would not dared to invade.

[DogOnPorch]

20 minutes ago, Dougie93 said:

due to exponentially fiercer resistance than they were clearly expecting

the Russians may be downsizing now, calling an audible

taking all of Ukraine is a bridge too far

yet there is no going back now

so consolidate all forces to the east of Dnieper to make an East Ukraine with a trace along the defensible river line

 

I'm dubious of the Operation. Only 200k troops...draftees by the looks, mostly. This needed almost Barbarossa type numbers to work as intended....or was it intended?

[Aristides]

1 hour ago, Dougie93 said:

no, Russia has more thermonuclear warheads

NATO could attempt a theater thermonuclear counterforce perhaps

but the Russians maintain survivable second strike

Russian ballistic missile submarines in the Barents Sea & under the polar ice cap

there is more than enough firepower on a single ballistic missile submarine

to reduce all of Western Europe or North America to an irradiated wasteland in 10 minutes

the Russians likely have at least three at sea at any moment

at least one would be hidden be under the ice in the arctic, but possibly all three at this point

 

Between them, the US, Britain and France have 22 SSBM's

Edited February 28, 2022 by Aristides

[Dougie93]

5 minutes ago, DogOnPorch said:

 

I'm dubious of the Operation. Only 200k troops...draftees by the looks, mostly. This needed almost Barbarossa type numbers to work as intended....or was it intended?

seems like Putin may have started to believe his own press releases

and so was expecting this to be a relative walkover like the Crimea operation in 2014 on a larger scale

[Dougie93]

1 minute ago, Aristides said:

Between them, the US, Britain and France have 22 SSBM's

"SSBN"

the Russians have 12, but that's more than enough to get the job done

and Russia has more nuclear warheads overall, particularly tactical nuclear warheads for battlefield use

[Aristides]

1 minute ago, Dougie93 said:

"SSBN"

the Russians have 12, but that's more than enough to get the job done

and Russia has more nuclear warheads overall, particularly tactical nuclear warheads for battlefield use

Typo

[DogOnPorch]

2 minutes ago, Dougie93 said:

"SSBN"

the Russians have 12, but that's more than enough to get the job done

and Russia has more nuclear warheads overall, particularly tactical nuclear warheads for battlefield use

 

The Bulava was a bit of a pill to get working, but they seem to have finally worked the bugs out.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSM-56_Bulava

Edited February 28, 2022 by DogOnPorch

[Dougie93]

France has a completely separate & independent national nuclear deterrent

only the US & UK have a joint nuclear deterrent

so it's not 22

it's 14 American + 4 British

then 4 French independent of that

[Dougie93]

2 minutes ago, Aristides said:

Typo

Ship Submersible Ballistic missile Nuclear

the Russians actually call theirs : Nuclear Powered Ballistic Missile Carrier Heavy Submarine Cruiser

[DogOnPorch]

Then there's the assortment of cruise missile flingers like the Bear, Blackjack & Backfire.

[Dougie93]

5 minutes ago, DogOnPorch said:

 

The Bulava was a bit of a pill to get working, but they seem to have finally worked the bugs out.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSM-56_Bulava

they keep the DELTA IV going just in case

16 x RSM-54 Sineva SLBM each

176 x 200kt MIRV

just one is more than enough to get the job done for survivable second strike in the bastion of the Barents

or can be used for offensive posture as well

particularly as DELTA IV can go up under the ice into a first strike position against Minuteman III on the Great Plains

but the threat I see here is much more theater thermonuclear war with tactical nuclear weapons below the strategic level

[Dougie93]

5 minutes ago, DogOnPorch said:

Then there's the assortment of cruise missile flingers like the Bear, Blackjack & Backfire.

plus SSGN

Oscar II & Yasen type Nuclear Powered Guided Missile Carrier Heavy Submarine Cruisers

[Dougie93]

just a quick primer on the types of nuclear war

Strategic Thermonuclear War : global exchange of ICBM / SLBM

Theater Thermonuclear War : use of tactical nuclear weapons in a single or multiple theater of war

Counterforce : nuclear strike of military targets only

"Battlefield Nukes"

Countervalue : nuclear strike of enemy population centers 

"City Killers"

Edited February 28, 2022 by Dougie93

[DogOnPorch]

Those RSM-56 are half n' half so they still need dangerous hypergolic fuels sloshing around inside the hull. They need to fill the missile before launch...no ever-ready with hypergolic fuels. It uses a weird pop-charge method to get it spinning and out of the water at the same time.

 

[Dougie93]

5 minutes ago, DogOnPorch said:

Those RSM-56 are half n' half so they still need dangerous hypergolic fuels sloshing around inside the hull. They need to fill the missile before launch...no ever-ready with hypergolic fuels. It uses a weird pop-charge method to get it spinning and out of the water at the same time.

I don't expect the Russians to be relying on them

I would submit, road mobile RT2PM2 Topol-M NATO Reporting Name SS-27 Mod II Sickle B is their main deterrent

I would surmise that the SLBM's are all for counterforce against Minuteman III from under the ice

[DogOnPorch]

Topol and Yars are the kings. Hard to find. They are ever-ready.

Edited February 28, 2022 by DogOnPorch

[Dougie93]

2 minutes ago, DogOnPorch said:

Topol and Yars are the kings. Hard to find. They are ever-ready.

I view RS-24 Yars to be in the same family, basically an upgraded Topol-M