Doug Ford and Covid 19

[Boges]

Facts

https://www.iheartradio.ca/newstalk-1010/news/toronto-hospital-already-seeing-increase-in-holiday-related-covid-19-cases-1.14296007?fbclid=IwAR0Jy0O8tqvC-b-Gh_3EXTRK-3X2z-b4G1E7slBhbjrIASc9L-8h5_7XPRY

Quote

 

New records are being reached nearly every day when it comes to Ontario's healthcare system capacity, and things may only get worse in the weeks ahead.

Dr. Michael Warner, the medical director of critical care at Michael Garron Hospital, tells the Globe and Mail that his hospital has already started to see an increase in COVID-19 patients linked to holiday gatherings.

"What we have now is people with privilege who think that they are somehow different, and rationalize to themselves that it's okay that they get together over the holidays with one, two, four, five people because they deserve it," he told the Globe. "What has happened is now those people are getting COVID-19."

 

Simply dividing the number of COVID-19 hospitalizations by the number Hospitals in the province isn't a relevant fact. 

If a person getting sick in Toronto has to go to Dryden to get ICU care, that's not exactly a good thing. 

[oops]

49 minutes ago, Boges said:

Facts

https://www.iheartradio.ca/newstalk-1010/news/toronto-hospital-already-seeing-increase-in-holiday-related-covid-19-cases-1.14296007?fbclid=IwAR0Jy0O8tqvC-b-Gh_3EXTRK-3X2z-b4G1E7slBhbjrIASc9L-8h5_7XPRY

Simply dividing the number of COVID-19 hospitalizations by the number Hospitals in the province isn't a relevant fact. 

If a person getting sick in Toronto has to go to Dryden to get ICU care, that's not exactly a good thing. 

If you lock down, and close the hospitals, no one gets treated. If you leave the hospitals open, and have a need for space, you could move emergency patients to space in community centers or temporary shelters, move post op to the emergency rooms, and use the beds made available for ICU. If you want to reduce hospitalizations, do more testing, and isolate the appropriate people. Of course hospital professionals would know better how to make appropriate space available if they were not too busy running around crying "the sky is falling."

[Boges]

37 minutes ago, oops said:

Of course hospital professionals would know better how to make appropriate space available if they were not too busy running around crying "the sky is falling."

I'm sure they can walk and chew gum at the same time. 

Field Hospitals are certainly not a long term solution. And if you're forced to open field hospitals you're conceding that every other element of the Emergency Healthcare system is suffering. 

Imagine getting a heart attack right now and having to go to a hospital full of COVID-19 patients? 

[oops]

9 minutes ago, Boges said:

Field Hospitals are certainly not a long term solution.

If we did more testing and isolating the appropriate people, maybe we wouldn't need a long term solution. Big picture we need a healthy economy to provide a healthy health care system.

 

12 minutes ago, Boges said:

And if you're forced to open field hospitals you're conceding that every other element of the Emergency Healthcare system is suffering. 

Now is not the time to save face, now is the time to save lives. 

[Boges]

1 minute ago, oops said:

If we did more testing and isolating the appropriate people, maybe we wouldn't need a long term solution. Big picture we need a healthy economy to provide a healthy health care system.

So you'd force people in "at-risk" groups to isolate then? Many are. If you're older or have a co-morbidity you're probably already taking COVID-19 very serious. But many don't have the economic freedom to "isolate". 

They live in shared accommodation or they work in an industry where social distancing is very hard. And those are the people that are suffering from COVID-19 the most. They're also the people least likely to be able to work from home or stay with school-age children who are forced to learn from home.  

I think after this lockdown, assuming numbers don't appreciably drop (which I don't expect them to) governments will have to realize that business isn't what's driving spread. Allow places to open back up. 

It's social gatherings that are the culprit. And if COVID-19 is to be contained before the vaccine steps in, some form of enforcement for social gatherings need to take place. 

[oops]

2 hours ago, Boges said:

So you'd force people in "at-risk" groups to isolate then? Many are. If you're older or have a co-morbidity you're probably already taking COVID-19 very serious. But many don't have the economic freedom to "isolate". 

Laws are actually made to force people to avoid harming others.

 

2 hours ago, Boges said:

But many don't have the economic freedom to "isolate". 

The government could find accommodation for those unable to unable to manage it on their own.  

[Boges]

16 minutes ago, oops said:

Laws are actually made to force people to avoid harming others.

The government could find accommodation for those unable to unable to manage it on their own.  

What if you're a 45 year old that's 350 lbs? Does the government pay you to stay home? 

Like if you reach a certain BMI you're asked to not go outdoors because the government can't afford to handle it if you get COVID-19. 

You're having a party, because free people should be allowed to party. The party can be as large as you want. BUT, if you invite someone with a Co-morbidity $10,000 ticket. 

[oops]

1 hour ago, Boges said:

Like if you reach a certain BMI you're asked to not go outdoors because the government can't afford to handle it if you get COVID-19.

You seem to have a firm grip on the obscure and absurd. Don't let trying to see the big picture take that away from you.

[Boges]

16 hours ago, oops said:

You seem to have a firm grip on the obscure and absurd. Don't let trying to see the big picture take that away from you.

You're the one that says "isolate the vulnerable". Yet you really haven't put a whole lot of thought into who that may be. 

The reason the Death toll in the US is so high is that a lot of Americans are vulnerable. 

[OftenWrong]

22 hours ago, Boges said:

If a person getting sick in Toronto has to go to Dryden to get ICU care, that's not exactly a good thing. 

It is how the health care system works. It is done all the time in Cancer care, and for the northern areas there are very few "local" hospitals.

Sorry if that's inconvenient, but better than staying local and dying. Also less inconvenient for everyone else in the province who is healthy, who need not be quarantined.

[Boges]

1 minute ago, OftenWrong said:

It is how the health care system works. It is done all the time in Cancer care, and for the northern areas there are very few "local" hospitals.

Sorry if that's inconvenient, but better than staying local and dying. Also less inconvenient for everyone else in the province who is healthy, who need not be quarantined.

You're talking about people from outside coming to Toronto for care. That's where the big hospitals are. That makes sense. 

But it's the Toronto area hospitals that are filling up. 

My point is, dividing the number of hospitals by the number of hospitalized Covid-19 patients isn't exactly an accurate way of gauging how full certain hospitals are becoming.

Do the staff go to these other hospitals as well? 

[OftenWrong]

17 minutes ago, Boges said:

The reason the Death toll in the US is so high is that a lot of Americans are vulnerable. 

What do you mean?

I say one reason is they are testing and recording their results far more diligently than many other countries.

The death toll is not "so high"

As of late 2020-
EU cases   17,348,349
EU deaths   427,798
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

USA (today)
Cases  21,353,051
Deaths 362,000 (worldometer)

 

Remarkably similar.

[Boges]

1 minute ago, OftenWrong said:

What do you mean?

I say one reason is they are testing and recording their results far more diligently than many other countries.

The death toll is not "so high"

As of late 2020-
EU cases   17,348,349
EU deaths   427,798
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

USA (today)
Cases  21,353,051
Deaths 362,000 (worldometer)

Remarkably similar.

I think we can all admit caseload is irrelevant without hospitalization and death figures attached. 

One thing about deaths per capita is that they consider deaths from the beginning of the pandemic where treatment was spotty. Many European nations experienced very high death tolls last Spring but are relatively lower now. 

The US death toll is the highest it's ever been. 

In Ontario we're seeing 3,000, or so, cases a day but still don't see more than a few dozen deaths at the worst. 

The truth is, everywhere is suffering from COVID-19 right now. It's proving to be impossible to contain. 

[OftenWrong]

1 minute ago, Boges said:

I think we can all admit caseload is irrelevant without hospitalization and death figures attached. 

One thing about deaths per capita is that they consider deaths from the beginning of the pandemic where treatment was spotty. Many European nations experienced very high death tolls last Spring but are relatively lower now. 

The US death toll is the highest it's ever been. 

In Ontario we're seeing 3,000, or so, cases a day but still don't see more than a few dozen deaths at the worst. 

The truth is, everywhere is suffering from COVID-19 right now. It's proving to be impossible to contain. 

My view is that the consideration should include excess deaths. People die every day, especially when they are in their 90's. Being fixated on purely death alone, leads to frightening conclusions.

[Boges]

Just now, OftenWrong said:

My view is that the consideration should include excess deaths. People die every day, especially when they are in their 90's. Being fixated on purely death alone, leads to frightening conclusions.

How about Hospitalizations? That leads to a cascading effect of increasing the death toll because of rationing of care and people dying of other things because so many resources are being focused on COVID-19. 

https://globalnews.ca/news/7553428/ontario-coronavirus-cases-january-4-covid19/

[OftenWrong]

9 minutes ago, Boges said:

How about Hospitalizations? That leads to a cascading effect of increasing the death toll because of rationing of care and people dying of other things because so many resources are being focused on COVID-19. 

https://globalnews.ca/news/7553428/ontario-coronavirus-cases-january-4-covid19/

Yes, but what has been actively done about that problem? It's been a year now since the shit began and not one move, barely, to help people out in this regard. Things can be done. But instead wheelbarrows of cash are being delivered right to people's front door, to keep them at home and safe. Pure unadulterated political idiocy and garbage.

So after of years of neglect and slashing the health care system to the bone (dubbed "re-engineering" by politicians), we have no overhead capacity to deal with a national emergency. We're on our knees, thanks to the politicos. Rich people's kids. Rather than put money into changes for the better, we are told to shut everything down stay the heck home. In the outside world ,the outbreaks in LTCs rage on. They want to call in the army again, and Doug Ford is fighting them while he does nothing. He makes cheesecakes.

As a wise old man once said to me, a lack of planning on your part does not demand an emergency response on my part.

[oops]

1 hour ago, Boges said:

You're talking about people from outside coming to Toronto for care. That's where the big hospitals are. That makes sense. 

But it's the Toronto area hospitals that are filling up. 

My point is, dividing the number of hospitals by the number of hospitalized Covid-19 patients isn't exactly an accurate way of gauging how full certain hospitals are becoming.

Do the staff go to these other hospitals as well? 

Are you saying that we shouldn't do what we can, because it might be too hard? Just let the people die we can't help you.

[Boges]

19 minutes ago, oops said:

Are you saying that we shouldn't do what we can, because it might be too hard? Just let the people die we can't help you.

I'm saying that it's not using theoretic Hospital Capacity from Hospitals very far away shouldn't minimize the crisis situation in Hospital capacity in Hot Zones. 

Also, and ICU bed isn't just a bed, it comes with staff and technology that can't just be transported. 

 

[Boges]

Nope, nothing to see here. 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/jo-brant-1.5861580

Quote

 

Ontario's first field hospital built during the pandemic is taking patients this week as COVID-19 infections strain the health care system.

The Burlington, Ont., facility, built on the grounds of Joseph Brant Hospital, was ready to treat patients as of Monday.

The hospital says it's responding to increased pressure on hospital capacity across the southern Ontario region that includes Hamilton, Niagara, Haldimand County and Burlington.

Rob MacIsaac, CEO of Hamilton Health Sciences, says opening the field hospital is a necessary step as the health-care system is stretched to its limits.

 

 

[oops]

Henry Ford said 'Whether you think you can, or you think you can't--you're right.' Lets hope that we can find some people who think we can, people who will do the best they can with the people and resources we have. I have faith in the people who are looking for solutions, not cowering from the difficulties they face.

 Here is something to consider about lock downs though. Our governments pay for the cost of providing their services in part  through income tax. They effectively use part of your earnings for the benefit of all. When a government runs a deficit they borrow money to address the shortfall. In order to borrow money you need to have collateral. The government's  collateral is their ability to tax your future income. Every month  that they run a deficit is another month that they are selling more  of your (and your children's) future earnings to their lenders.

[oops]

5 hours ago, Boges said:

You're the one that says "isolate the vulnerable". Yet you really haven't put a whole lot of thought into who that may be. 

 

I don't say isolate the vulnerable. When you choose to speak for others, you should be more accurate. I say test as many as you can, and isolate those who are likely to infect others.

4 hours ago, Boges said:

The reason the Death toll in the US is so high is that a lot of Americans are vulnerable.  isn't that partly because of the lock downs?

Edited January 5, 2021 by oops

[Boges]

1 minute ago, oops said:

I don't say isolate the vulnerable. When you choose to speak for others, you should be more accurate. I say test as many as you can, and isolate those who are likely to infect others.

I think that's already the reality. You're supposed to self-isolate if you have a positive diagnosis or if you've been exposed to someone that's been positive. 

 

Quote

The reason the Death toll in the US is so high is that a lot of Americans are vulnerable.  isn't partly because of the lock downs?

The US is, by and large, an unhealthy country. Lots of obesity, heart disease etc. 

Certain, more liberal places, have seen lockdowns, but much of the country has few restrictions. 

[oops]

1 hour ago, Boges said:

I think that's already the reality. You're supposed to self-isolate if you have a positive diagnosis or if you've been exposed to someone that's been positive. 

I say that we are missing some infections because we aren't doing enough testing. Some people have no symptoms, so won't necessarily be tested.  Knowledge of a problem is one of the best tools in resolving it, we need more knowledge of where the virus is. 

 

1 hour ago, Boges said:

The US is, by and large, an unhealthy country. Lots of obesity, heart disease etc.

Lock downs will not make for less obesity, or less heart disease.

[Boges]

20 minutes ago, oops said:

I say that we are missing some infections because we aren't doing enough testing. Some people have no symptoms, so won't necessarily be tested.  Knowledge of a problem is one of the best tools in resolving it, we need more knowledge of where the virus is. 

I don't disagree. Just not sure how that looks in practice. Can they be made as widely available as pregnancy tests? 

 

Quote

Lock downs will not make for less obesity, or less heart disease.

Depends how you eat. I suspect you can still go for walks or exercise at home. I know I quit my Gym Membership and it hasn't particularly made me less healthy because I continue to keep relatively active. 

[oops]

33 minutes ago, Boges said:

I don't disagree. Just not sure how that looks in practice. Can they be made as widely available as pregnancy tests?

This article was posted 7 weeks ago.

Where are Canada’s rapid at-home coronavirus tests?

Infectious disease experts have been asking themselves — and public health officials — this for months.

“If every Canadian had that in their medicine cabinet, we might be able to test our way out of this,” said Colin Furness, an infection control epidemiologist and assistant professor at the University of Toronto.

https://globalnews.ca/news/7469571/coronavirus-canada-rapid-at-home-tests/