The Coronavirus

[Zeitgeist]

1 hour ago, Moonlight Graham said:

The Canadian economy is in big trouble. Because of this virus, the S&P 500 and DOW (the US market) has dropped down to what it was valued back in 2017.  However, the TSX dropped so much it's now valued what it was back in 2010.  10 years of growth completely wiped out. Investors on the fence about the Canadian economy have completely abandoned it and will go elsewhere once global markets start to recover.  We're effed.

I wouldn’t say that.  Canada has tremendous wealth in the land on a per capita basis.  We can produce pretty much anything and have tremendous resources.  Canada will brave this and many other challenges.  Our policies are responsive to a well-informed public.  So let’s see what our measures and resolve can do.  It’s a matter of how much damage is inflicted and how quickly we can bounce back.

I never thought I’d say this, but I like the NDP plan.  It’s actually a combination of the US plan and some European plans, though the Liberal plan may be more sustainable if this goes on for a long while:

“Singh said Monday that he wants the Liberal government to give $2,000 and $250 per child to all Canadians and Indigenous peoples immediately. Singh also said he wants the federal government to supplement at least 75 per cent of people's lost wages, as countries such as the U.K., Denmark and France have pledged to do.

"To save these jobs and to make sure workers continue to get paid, the government needs to step up and offer a bigger wage subsidy like other countries have done," Singh said. "We shouldn't wait for more people to lose their jobs before taking the next steps. Let's do what needs to be done and implement a firing freeze right now."

Edited March 24, 2020 by Zeitgeist

[Guest ProudConservative]

5 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said:

I wouldn’t say that.  Canada has tremendous wealth in the land on a per capita basis.  We can produce pretty much anything and have tremendous resources.  Canada will brave this and many other challenges.  Our policies are responsive to a well-informed public.  So let’s see what our measures and resolve can do.  It’s a matter of how much damage is inflicted and how quickly we can bounce back.

Some of the best opportunities to make money are in economic depressions. You can buy everything cheap and get quick returns. If it takes 10 years for the economy to bounce back, that's 10 years to day trade and become rich.

It's not fun to invest when economies are booming, you have to be on guard every day for a downturn.

Edited March 24, 2020 by ProudConservative

[Dougie93]

1 hour ago, Moonlight Graham said:

The Canadian economy is in big trouble. Because of this virus, the S&P 500 and DOW (the US market) has dropped down to what it was valued back in 2017.  However, the TSX dropped so much it's now valued what it was back in 2010.  10 years of growth completely wiped out. Investors on the fence about the Canadian economy have completely abandoned it and will go elsewhere once global markets start to recover.  We're effed.

The ten years weren't wiped out, you buy low, sell high, having taken your profits as you went

The stock market is not the real economy, it's the real economy in the future

[Dougie93]

8 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said:

I wouldn’t say that.  Canada has tremendous wealth in the land on a per capita basis.  We can produce pretty much anything and have tremendous resources.  Canada will brave this and many other challenges.  Our policies are responsive to a well-informed public.  So let’s see what our measures and resolve can do.  It’s a matter of how much damage is inflicted and how quickly we can bounce back.

1,000,000 Canadians laid off in a single week

This is going to be a depression

Not The Great Depression per se, but it's going to be more than a recession

[bush_cheney2004]

1 hour ago, Moonlight Graham said:

The Canadian economy is in big trouble. Because of this virus, the S&P 500 and DOW (the US market) has dropped down to what it was valued back in 2017.  However, the TSX dropped so much it's now valued what it was back in 2010.  10 years of growth completely wiped out. Investors on the fence about the Canadian economy have completely abandoned it and will go elsewhere once global markets start to recover.  We're effed.

 

Not so fast, as Canada's entire economy is not represented by the TSX any more than the U.S. economy is reflected by the Dow Jones 30.   Wiping out stock market growth and insanely high stock P/E multiples just last month is not the same as destroying fundamentals of the economy.    Canada had a strong economy that did better than most in 2008-2009, and was threatened by commodity price wars (e.g. oil) before the virus hit.

More than half of Canada's economy is based on domestic consumption, which will continue at some (reduced) level, depending on benefits and those who can remain employed.    Debt will go up no doubt, and some sectors will be hit harder than others.   But oil and softwood lumber have seen this before...so has the airline industry.

The economic history that you reference before and associated bounce back should give some reason for optimism in the long term.   It's just that most people are going to get a "haircut".

 

[Zeitgeist]

1 minute ago, Dougie93 said:

1,000,000 Canadians laid off in a single week

This is going to be a depression

Not The Great Depression per se, but it's going to be more than a recession

Meh, whatever.  Print the money and shift industry temporarily to fighting the virus, hunker down with strict public health measures for 4-6 weeks then ease back to small social groupings gradually, ensuring the vulnerable are extra careful and isolating any new cases.  

[Guest ProudConservative]

Like I told ya all along... You can make money as the stock market crashes... Learn about shorting. When the stock prices drop you make money. I told all of you to short when the dow was 26000. Now it's 18600. Without using leverage you would of made a 29% return. If you used 3x leverage, you would of made an 84% return.

Edited March 24, 2020 by ProudConservative

[Dougie93]

Bear in mind what is actually going on right now, this is conscription

Authority to ;

Search without warrant

Restrict movement

Seize private property

Conscript labor

Detain for the duration of the emergency

This is national mobilization for war

To wit, you're all in the army now

[Dougie93]

Just now, Zeitgeist said:

Meh, whatever.  Print the money and shift industry temporarily to fighting the virus, hunker down with strict public health measures for 4-6 weeks then ease back to small social groupings gradually, ensuring the vulnerable are extra careful and isolating any new cases.  

Meh, whatever, I'm prepped to hunker down indefinitely, and I bought low and sold high

[SpankyMcFarland]

I’m not thinking about the economy/pensions/investments/house prices right now, just hoping that me, my family, my friends and as many other Canadians as possible survive the next few months. Some of us have pre-existing conditions, like loads of miles on the clock for starters. One thing I saw discussed today for the US but could apply here - a Cloud-based platform to create a national clearinghouse for ventilators and PPE. Not that I anticipate too many places with enormous surpluses in these things if we really get hit hard. For now I’m mainly depending on the fact that I live on a sparsely populated island. 

Edited March 24, 2020 by SpankyMcFarland

[Zeitgeist]

Just now, Dougie93 said:

Meh, whatever, I'm prepped to hunker down indefinitely, and I bought low and sold high

That’s right.  When one door closes another opens.  

[Dougie93]

Just now, Zeitgeist said:

That’s right.  When one door closes another opens.  

Chaos is a ladder

[Guest ProudConservative]

People seem to forget that this virus is global. If there're no wealthy countries to trade with us, it will make the situation worse. China isn't really that hungry for oil right now.

Edited March 24, 2020 by ProudConservative

[Zeitgeist]

1 minute ago, ProudConservative said:

People seem to forget that this virus is global. If there are not wealthy countries to trade with us, it will make the situation worse. China isn't really that hungry for oil right now.

Energy East!

[bush_cheney2004]

1 minute ago, ProudConservative said:

Like I told ya all along... You can make money as the stock market crashes... Learn about shorting. When the stock prices drop you make money. I told all of you to short when the dow was 26000. Now it's 18600. Without using leverage you would of made a 28% return. If you used 3 leverage, you would of made an 84% return.

 

True, but it is safer for novices to use leveraged contrarion ETFs, and not run the risks of margin calls.

Or just pick your entry point for an index fund ETF for a longer time horizon.

I was able to make a princely sum based on the volatility of leveraged oil ETFs, but it requires the focus and reflexes of a day trader and is not for the faint of heart.

Bond funds should also be rising after the dust settles and interest rates remain close to zero.

[Dougie93]

2 minutes ago, ProudConservative said:

People seem to forget that this virus is global.

Exactly.   Brace for depression.   Not the end of the world, but much worse than a recession

Edited March 24, 2020 by Dougie93

[Guest ProudConservative]

3 minutes ago, Dougie93 said:

Exactly.   Brace for depression.   Not the end of the world, but much worse than a recession

Don't cry about it, see it as an opportunity... and then prepare yourself for when this kind of thing happens again... I'll never go without 4 weeks of food and water on hand. I might even invest in a small solar system.... Just to keep a freezer running in the future. 

Besides, if you build it right... It will pay for itself over the years... since you don't have to pay the extra electricity.

Do you know how many people got rich from investing in Las Vegas real estate in 2009?

Edited March 24, 2020 by ProudConservative

[Zeitgeist]

4 minutes ago, Dougie93 said:

Exactly.   Brace for depression.   Not the end of the world, but much worse than a recession

It just has to be a scaled down situation for a while, keeping it simple with family and home cooked meals, board games and walks, with smart money and household management on the side.  Everyone wants to keep the ball rolling, and it will. Ask Sisyphus.  

Edited March 24, 2020 by Zeitgeist

[Guest ProudConservative]

Just now, Zeitgeist said:

It just has to be a scaled down situation for a while, keeping it simple with family and home cooked meals, board games and walks, with smart money and household management in the side.  Everyone wants to keep the ball rolling, and it will. Ask Sisyphus.  

Imagine if every Canadian became a small prepper after this. There would be far less panic, the next time around. Maintaining a stockpile of supplies, ins't hording... If makes you less problem, for the government to deal with, when there is a crisis.

[Dougie93]

2 minutes ago, ProudConservative said:

Don't cry about it, see it as an opportunity...

I already saw the opportunity and made a shitload of money out of it, now I can just chill because I'll never have to work again, the derpression is not going to impact me

Rather, I can now circle like a vulture feasting on the carnage

[Guest ProudConservative]

Just now, Dougie93 said:

I already saw the opportunity and made a shitload of money out of it, now I can just chill because I'll never have to work again, the derpression is not going to impact me

Rather, I can now circle like a vulture feasting on the carnage

Have you made any money since the crash? Or have you made enough money in the past, where... it doesn't really matter any more?

[Guest ProudConservative]

I feel sorry for Donald Trump... He works his ass off to give us a booming economy, and now his legacy will be the Great Depression president.

[Dougie93]

1 minute ago, ProudConservative said:

Have you made any money since the crash? Or have you made enough money in the past, where... it doesn't really matter any more?

I entered the bear market at the bottom, rode the bull market all the way up, late cycle I was watching for the Black Swan, when I saw it Wuhan I wrapped my position up

Pocketed all the money from the Federal Reserve free money party,  set for life now, although I'm old, so that's not going to be forever.

[bush_cheney2004]

Older folk...please take the young ones aside and tell them about hard times in the past.   They may not want to hear it, but it serves to assure them that we have survived such things before.    The coronavirus outbreak will pass into history and will be the story for their grandchildren.

I am seeing some amazing local efforts to mobilize resources and distribution organically, without government direction.   I am sure this is happening in Canada as well.

[bush_cheney2004]

2 minutes ago, ProudConservative said:

I feel sorry for Donald Trump... He works his ass off to give us a booming economy, and now his legacy will be the Great Depression president.

 

...and that's OK.   "Live by the sword (economy)...die by the sword (economy)."