Obama vs Romney - POTUS 2012

[BubberMiley]

Sounds like Romney not answering questions about his tax returns because it would just give the Democrats ammunition. Isn't that an admission that he would be unelectable if the truth about him were known?

[j44]

I’m still leaning in the I think Ryan wasn’t a great pick.

I could be wrong and he could ignite the base enough to make the difference. Most polls show things are pretty close and for months I have been of the mind that this will be a very close election. Maybe Romney felt that he could compete with independents enough but really needed more enthusiasm from the base.

While initially I thought it was a base pick (I’m not so sure how it will keep the enthusiasm up for months but who knows?) the more I think about it the more I think that it was done partly to change the subject from Mitt’s taxes, Bain and everything else he has been attacked for. And of course make Romney look like a true fiscal conservative and make the choice clearer. Because in my opinion, if this was just a base pick it wasn’t a good decision. Not that it didn’t excite the base but because that is all it may have done (while of course causing problems with Medicare).

For about three weeks now Mitt has not been on message about the economy. Granted, I didn’t feel his campaign was doing well in the message category and he has been on his back foot for the most part even with the jobless rate and overall economic situation but why?

Character wise he was being destroyed pretty successfully by Chicago and The White House and then he went overseas and made some stupid comments that didn’t help him. Then he comes back and announces the Ryan pick which changes the narrative (for a little while at least) to Ryan and (whether intentional or not) Medicare. As much as I think Ryan will help Romney be more at ease and more personable on the trail I don’t think talking about Medicare is good for Mitt.

While I think most reasonable people would agree that Medicare needs reform I don’t think it is a winning message. To me, whether you agree with Ryan’s ideas or not that is beside the point with regard to the politics of it. Ryan’s ideas get into details. To win, Mitt needs to get independent voters and people who don’t...pay attention... to the gritty details of policies and plans. And I think this is a huge problem.

So while I think Ryan excites a certain segment of the GOP it also could (and most certainly will) turn off some independents because even people that are concerned about government debt and the economy still like their entitlements. Whether Ryan excites more of the base than he turns off independents is something we will have to wait until November to see.

I am an Obama supporter but he isn’t running on ideas-at least not on ideas that will work. While I think increasing taxes on the rich is a good idea in this case and it is great politics it isn’t a solution. I am not saying he doesn’t have some ideas about how to solve the country’s fiscal problems but he is not running on them. And for the record I think he would (if re-elected) strike a deal and seriously work toward dealing with the debt.

And let’s face it, increasing taxes a few points on a small percentage of the population isn’t going to solve anything. But like I said, it is a good campaign message.

Maybe Mitt thought that his campaign needed a boost by picking an ideas guy to change the narrative and show the American people that Mitt isn’t a flip flopper but I’m not sure people will be thinking that come November.

Even if the job numbers continue on their current path I don’t think Mitt will win if he continues on his current path. Unless the economic numbers get worse (maybe they have to get much worse) he will not unseat the President.

Romney might have some things up his sleeve that he will come out with after (or during) the convention but he needs to change some things. I, of course, have no idea how he can do that. If I didn’t I would be running his campaign but am I the only one that thinks he is on a losing path unless the economy gets worse and worse?

There is always an October surprise. That could be the economy or it could be something else. Obama could bomb Iran and get re-elected by a landslide. At the same time, that would spike oil prices and possibly ruin and already fragile world economy and then President Romney.

Also, there is a reason Mitt isn’t talking about the economy. I think if they really wanted to his campaign would be talking about it more. It is difficult to stay on message with these foolish rape comments and everything that gets in the way but is it just me or if Boston more off message than they should be?

Mitt’s policies might or might not work to get the economy going again. I think if you summed up his tax policies to the average voter he or she wouldn’t really get behind them. Maybe that is it. Maybe he was getting hit too hard on the ‘Mitt wants to lower taxes for rich people like him.’ Maybe that is why they aren’t on message.

Maybe Mitt hopes the jobs numbers keep going down and when November comes he will have a better shot.

Does he have anything else?

[punked]

"No one every asked to see my Birth certificate"- Mitt Romney Aug 24th 2012.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fM-qqmu-wuI&feature=player_embedded

Nope but almost 70% of America did ask to see those tax returns you are hiding there Rmoney. Romney no only a birther before it was cool like Shady but also a birther after everyone in the world including Shady stopped being one. This man wants to be president seriously he is more extreme then even Shady.

[waldo]

"No one every asked to see my Birth certificate"- Mitt Romney Aug 24th 2012.

video removed... updated video link below:

the guy has no campaign smarts - none whatsoever! If Romney, himself, is this brazen... it can only speak to an even more escalating and downward spiral for... both... campaigns, as the mud really gets thrown about! This is the guy who claims to want to keep the campaign focused on the economy! Oh my!

[Topaz]

Then you don't remember that there were many people running for US president in 2008:

Barack Obama, U.S. Senator from Illinois

Hillary Clinton, U.S. Senator from New York

John Edwards, former U.S. Senator from North Carolina

Bill Richardson, Governor of New Mexico

Dennis Kucinich, U.S. Representative from Ohio

Joe Biden, U.S. Senator from Delaware

Mike Gravel, former U.S. Senator from Alaska

Christopher Dodd, U.S. Senator from Connecticut

Tom Vilsack, former Governor of Iowa

Evan Bayh, U.S. Senator from Indiana

John McCain, U.S. Senator from Arizona

Mike Huckabee, former Governor of Arkansas

Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts

Ron Paul, U.S. Representative from Texas

Fred Thompson, former U.S. Senator from Tennessee

Duncan Hunter, U.S. Representative from California

Rudy Giuliani, former Mayor of New York City

Alan Keyes, former U.S. ECOSOC Ambassador from Maryland

Tom Tancredo, U.S. Representative from Colorado

Sam Brownback, U.S. Senator from Kansas

Tommy Thompson, former Governor of Wisconsin

Jim Gilmore, former Governor of Virginia

Ralph Nader

Bob Barr

Chuck Baldwin

Cynthia McKinney

So how many were invited to Bilderberg meetings ?

The only ones that I've read about are Clinton,Obama and Romney, Romney was at the last meeting.

[j44]

Chris Dodd. There is a name I haven't heard in a long time.

[punked]

Chris Dodd. There is a name I haven't heard in a long time.

He is leading the lobbying for the MPAA I believe he had a big hand in SOPA which crashed and burned. Lets put this way the internet hates that guy.

Edited August 24, 2012 by punked

[-TSS-]

It's going to be one of the dirtiest campaigns ever. However, I think that as there is no feel good-factor at the present people will listen again the candidate who promises a change and new hope, the same tired old rhetoric used time and again but every time it appeals to the people.

Obama will no doubt make Medicare as the center of the campaign as not Romney himself but his running-mate Paul Ryan has made statements how the whole system should be slashed. The American people regardless of their political persuasion like Medicare and want it to be kept but as the population is rapidly ageing it needs some reform to remain affordable.

[j44]

He is leading the lobbying for the MPAA I believe he had a big hand in SOPA which crashed and burned. Lets put this way the internet hates that guy.

Yeah, I Googled him and saw his current gig but didn't know about SOPA.

[punked]

Yeah, I Googled him and saw his current gig but didn't know about SOPA.

Reddit who brought down SOPA hates the guy for sure.

[j44]

I wonder if the Democrats spent too much time on those idiotic rape comments. Don't get me wrong the comments should have attacked and I think there are more women than men voters but did the Democrats take their foot off Ryan and his Medicare plans?

Maybe it was more of the media shredding Akin and his comments but it seems to me that if the Democrats kept on the attack Ryan would be on the defensive going into the convention and maybe have to explain his ideas more. And we all know that, in politics, when you are explaining you are losing.

Maybe it'll be easy to get back on message and attack Ryan and maybe it was worth connecting Akin to Ryan and Romney because it plays into their narrative that the GOP ticket is extreme. But wouldn't it have been better for the Democrats to be talking about Medicare?

[punked]

I wonder if the Democrats spent too much time on those idiotic rape comments. Don't get me wrong the comments should have attacked and I think there are more women than men voters but did the Democrats take their foot off Ryan and his Medicare plans?

Maybe it was more of the media shredding Akin and his comments but it seems to me that if the Democrats kept on the attack Ryan would be on the defensive going into the convention and maybe have to explain his ideas more. And we all know that, in politics, when you are explaining you are losing.

Maybe it'll be easy to get back on message and attack Ryan and maybe it was worth connecting Akin to Ryan and Romney because it plays into their narrative that the GOP ticket is extreme. But wouldn't it have been better for the Democrats to be talking about Medicare?

There is plenty of time to fill the news cycle. The rape comments won the day for the Dems for close to week with out having to really debate it. They will continue to talk about it because Obama is winning women big time and Romney wants to take away many womens health rights with his repeal of the ACA AND limiting of abortion. It is a winning argument for them.

[j44]

There is plenty of time to fill the news cycle. The rape comments won the day for the Dems for close to week with out having to really debate it. They will continue to talk about it because Obama is winning women big time and Romney wants to take away many womens health rights with his repeal of the ACA AND limiting of abortion. It is a winning argument for them.

But that's my point. Obama is winning the women vote. Winning it by more is great but isn't winning older voters more important?

And it's not a matter of filling the news cycle. After all, it is important to keep a candidate on the defensive about what he perceives as his biggest positive.

[punked]

But that's my point. Obama is winning the women vote. Winning it by more is great but isn't winning older voters more important?

And it's not a matter of filling the news cycle. After all, it is important to keep a candidate on the defensive about what he perceives as his biggest positive.

The point is among registered voters Obama leads by like 9 points. Among non registered voters he leads by like 30 points. This means Obama will win as long as he motivates his voters so hitting on issues that motivate his people to go the polls is good for him. This is a different election then just convincing people to vote for you it is now about getting your people to the polls.

Edited August 26, 2012 by punked

[j44]

The point is among registered voters Obama leads by like 9 points. Among non registered voters he leads by like 30 points. This means Obama will win as long as he motivates his voters so hitting on issues that motivate his people to go the polls is good for him. This is a different election then just convincing people to vote for you it is now about getting your people to the polls.

I think it is much closer than that and more complicated.

[punked]

I think it is much closer than that and more complicated.

It is much closer on the Likely voter models which is why Obama is playing to his voters. His problem isn't that majority doesn't support him his problem is 5% of his voters don't care enough yet. Seriously look at any poll that have registered voters instead of Likely voters or has those numbers buried in the poll somewhere. Obama is killing Romney with the public at large (this explains why it looks ties but every battle ground state poll has Obama just killing Romney). The thing is the people that support Romney hate Obama so much that they know they are voting, the people who are supporting Obama like Obama but his record leaves something to be desired.

If the Republicans want a referendum on Obama. Obama is trying to make it a question between himself and Romney.

[j44]

It is much closer on the Likely voter models which is why Obama is playing to his voters. His problem isn't that majority doesn't support him his problem is 5% of his voters don't care enough yet. Seriously look at any poll that have registered voters instead of Likely voters or has those numbers buried in the poll somewhere. Obama is killing Romney with the public at large (this explains why it looks ties but every battle ground state poll has Obama just killing Romney). The thing is the people that support Romney hate Obama so much that they know they are voting, the people who are supporting Obama like Obama but his record leaves something to be desired.

If the Republicans want a referendum on Obama. Obama is trying to make it a question between himself and Romney.

I'll have to see this poll breakdown for myself. As much as I want it I don't believe he is 'just killing Romney' in battleground states and is 'killing Romney with the public at large.'

I think you're being too optimistic, sorry.

[punked]

I'll have to see this poll breakdown for myself. As much as I want it I don't believe he is 'just killing Romney' in battleground states and is 'killing Romney with the public at large.'

I think you're being too optimistic, sorry.

Well check out the latest CNN poll, check the latest fox news poll, the last cnn poll. In fact look at any poll that has registered voters instead of their own Likely voter model.

I am not being optimistic because it doesn't matter who would vote for Obama. It is about who will what will the 55% of the public who show up on voting day look like. This is why Obama is running these adds. If it is a referendum on Obama he could very well lose because while people like him, do they like him enough to show up. Obama needs to push his voters the same way Bush did in 2004.

Nate Silver has Obama's chances at reelection right now at 70%. That isn't close at all.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Edited August 26, 2012 by punked

[Shady]

Nate Silver has Obama's chances at reelection right now at 70%. That isn't close at all.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

A popular vote of 50 - 48 is pretty close punked, you're being disingenious.

[punked]

A popular vote of 50 - 48 is pretty close punked, you're being disingenious.

Read the very first post in article Shady. It is about how the LVs split in a huge way from RVs in the polls to date and how it effects all models. Sorry Shady you are ignoring the things you don't think about the polls. Which is fine but Romney hasn't gained any voters the models are just favorable because his base is motivated. A split from LVs to RV of 5 points is crazy and just wont happen. Romney needs to close the gap because come election day it wont be the polls or their models deciding.

There is a whole article on it here.

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/morning-jay-how-read-polls_650668.html

[Shady]

Read the very first post in article Shady. It is about how the LVs split in a huge way from RVs in the polls to date and how it effects all models. Sorry Shady you are ignoring the things you don't think about the polls. Which is fine but Romney hasn't gained any voters the models are just favorable because his base is motivated. A split from LVs to RV of 5 points is crazy and just wont happen. Romney needs to close the gap because come election day it wont be the polls or their models deciding.

There is a whole article on it here.

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/morning-jay-how-read-polls_650668.html

I don't listen to you when it comes to election predictions. You're always wrong, and you always post inaccurate information. Remember when you said Coakly would beat Scott Brown? And then you insisted Jon Corzine would beat Chris Christie. And then you told us that Creigh Deeds would beat Bob McDonnell. And then you told us that Scott Walker would lose, then you said he'd be recalled, and lose. And then you argued with me over how many seats the Republicans would win in the midterms. You said around 20. It was a record 70+ seats. So your credibility is pretty much zero when it comes to elections. This is the best quote from you...

This aint 1993 we are going to see that soon.

You were kinda right. It was even bigger than '93!

[punked]

I don't listen to you when it comes to election predictions. You're always wrong, and you always post inaccurate information. Remember when you said Coakly would beat Scott Brown? And then you insisted Jon Corzine would beat Chris Christie. And then you told us that Creigh Deeds would beat Bob McDonnell. And then you told us that Scott Walker would lose, then you said he'd be recalled, and lose. And then you argued with me over how many seats the Republicans would win in the midterms. You said around 20. It was a record 70+ seats. So your credibility is pretty much zero when it comes to elections. This is the best quote from you...

You were kinda right. It was even bigger than '93!

Ok a bet it is then. If Obama wins you don't post for 2 months. If Romney wins I will do the same. Time to put our money where our mouths are.

Edited August 28, 2012 by punked

[punked]

Ok a bet it is then. If Obama wins you don't post for 2 months. If Romney wins I will do the same. Time to put our money where our mouths are.

[j44]

Apparently Christie turned down the VP spot. I have a feeling Rubio did too.

Interesting rule that affects some governors.

http://www.propublica.org/article/how-an-obscure-federal-rule-could-be-shaking-up-presidential-politics

Anonymous sources told the paper that Romney demanded Christie agree to resign the governorship if he was offered vice president on the GOP ticket. Christie was said to have declined since he didn't think Romney would win.

The possible need for Christie's resignation arises from federal rules that forbid the employees of Wall Street firms from giving money to state officials running for federal office if the firms do business with that state. The rules affect firms that underwrite municipal bonds or advise state pension systems on their investments. If the public official — in this case, the governor of New Jersey — has any influence, directly or indirectly, in selecting the pension investment advisers or bond underwriters, the firms can't give campaign contributions.

[GostHacked]

Ok a bet it is then. If Obama wins you don't post for 2 months. If Romney wins I will do the same. Time to put our money where our mouths are.

Here is your chance Shady. You have an obvious willing challenger who is stepping up. Should I up the anti and not post myself for two weeks (even though that will be hard) if Romney wins? Hmmmmm.