Federal Election Polls

[cybercoma]

I'm pretty intune with current affairs and I've never ever heard of that polling company.

Weird. They're a major public opinion firm.

[ToadBrother]

Another interesting one a friend just sent me:

Not sure if CROP is reliable or not, but there you go......

He wouldn't be the first leader of a major political party to lose his own seat, even as his party's fortunes are on the upswing. Happened in 2013 in BC, when Christy Clark lost her own seat even as the BC Liberals more than recovered from pre-election polling woes. Some nice accommodating MLA in a safe seat stood aside and she was elected handily.

[cybercoma]

Another interesting one a friend just sent me:

Not sure if CROP is reliable or not, but there you go......

CROP is reliable. They're a Québec firm. I saw Warren Kinsella talking about this one, but I couldn't find the actual CROP poll before posting it. I want to see their methods and other details on this one.

[Derek 2.0]

Judging by the behavior of the campaigns, I'd wager internal polling is just as confused. The only useful analysis I've seen is that none of the three actually knows how to fight a three way race, so each party is fighting a nightmare two front war.

I think this is largely what you would expect from a true three-way race, where everything is clouded in margins of error. The only real question I've have is whether the pollsters' assumptions about the relative vote efficiency of the three parties still holds true. There's still quite a tendency to lean towards the Tories having the upper hand, and thus, even when they fall behind popular vote, of stilling getting more seats for it. I think the region and riding level data we're beginning to see suggests that, at least in BC and Ontario, the Tories may be losing that advantage. The Liberals appear poised to dominate Ontario, which really is the Tories' nightmare scenario.

From internal polling versus public polling in the media, I don't think the picture you paint is quite accurate in regards to the Tories....from published polls, the Tories appear to be rising once again in Ontario, and in BC, I put little stock in an orange wave, like I did several years ago with Dix versus Clark.

[cybercoma]

That CROP poll was in the field Sept 11-14 and hit up 375 people. The margin of error is 5.06%. The issue is that it was commissioned by the NDP though that shouldn't matter, since CROP is a reputable firm in Québec. As long as their methodology is sound, the results should be accurate. Another issue is that 25% of the respondents said they may still change their vote.

[Triple M]

It will be interesting to see how the 3way race plays out in the debates. The LPC/NDP have been forcibly going after each other this week and Harper has been attacking both daily. I would think the person who is able to stand back while his opponents attack each other stands to benefit

[ReeferMadness]

It will be interesting to see how the 3way race plays out in the debates. The LPC/NDP have been forcibly going after each other this week and Harper has been attacking both daily. I would think the person who is able to stand back while his opponents attack each other stands to benefit

Broken voting system.

[capricorn]

Broken voting system.

That's what they all say when their guy is not in the driver's seat.

[Derek 2.0]

Another interesting poll that could hurt both the Liberals and NDP:

Liberal and New Democratic leaders have vowed to reverse the increase, but 67 per cent of respondents in a poll conducted by the Angus Reid Institute were opposed to the rollback.

When asked if Ottawa should limit yearly TFSA contributions to $5,500, only 33 per cent of respondents agreed. The remainder said the federal government should allow annual contributions up to $10,000.

Inversely though, it also found that:

The strong support in the survey for the higher TFSA contribution limits doesn’t amount to a blanket endorsement of Conservative proposals. An even larger majority – 81 per cent of respondents – liked Liberal and NDP proposals to maintain eligibility for Old Age Security at 65 years, rather than gradually increasing it to 67 as Conservatives plan.

So the choice for many is the increased contribution for their TFSA or the new eligibility for OAS.......

[ReeferMadness]

That's what they all say when their guy is not in the driver's seat.

I don't believe the point of an electoral system is to pick "a guy". The point of an electoral system is to represent the views of Canadians. Even Canadians who have different views than me.

Sorry to disappoint you.

[capricorn]

I don't believe the point of an electoral system is to pick "a guy".

You may not believe that but the fact is look at all the attention given to the party leaders. So "the guy" has an important role and place in our politics.

The point of an electoral system is to represent the views of Canadians.

On this point, we agree fully.

[ReeferMadness]

The point of an electoral system is to represent the views of Canadians.

On this point, we agree fully.

Great. We have a system today that leaves millions of voters unrepresented and puts strains on national unity by artificially painting regions under the color of a single party. Conservatives in Victoria, Toronto and Quebec. Liberals on the prairies. NDP supporters in the Maritimes. If you look at the HoC, you would get the impression they don't exist. They do exist and they deserve representation.

[cybercoma]

Not the PR thread, unless there's current polling on it

[capricorn]

Great. We have a system today that leaves millions of voters unrepresented and puts strains on national unity by artificially painting regions under the color of a single party. Conservatives in Victoria, Toronto and Quebec. Liberals on the prairies. NDP supporters in the Maritimes. If you look at the HoC, you would get the impression they don't exist. They do exist and they deserve representation.

Isn't that the price we pay for having such a large country, with vastly diverse resources scattered throughout resulting in special interests along geographical lines? The country has survived 150 years under the present system in spite of these challenges and I can't see the country breaking apart anytime soon.

[eyeball]

Definitely. Who saw the endless campaigns in the US and thought "we need some of that"?

Conservative campaign strategists on the financial and advertising side of the team would be my guess.

[ReeferMadness]

Isn't that the price we pay for having such a large country, with vastly diverse resources scattered throughout resulting in special interests along geographical lines? The country has survived 150 years under the present system in spite of these challenges and I can't see the country breaking apart anytime soon.

No. It's the price we pay for having a voting system that's a leftover from the 19th century. In 2015, we have the technology to create constituencies on other bases than simply geography.

HoC representation is based on geography and then we select senators based on a larger geographic area. On top of that, we have provincial governments. All of the governmental institutions are based on geography.

The country only barely survived in 1995.

[SpankyMcFarland]

If people stay loyal to the one of the opposition parties when another is clearly ahead in their riding, they are simply giving Steve another term. To beat someone like this, you've got to be flexible and recognize that party loyalty does not fit well in a FPTP system.

Edited September 21, 2015 by SpankyMcFarland

[Vancouver King]

Today's new Nanos sounding has an interesting regional battle in BC. All three major parties are in a 3-way lock with almost identical numbers to the national standings'

The Greens are polling 10.7 in BC - probably most of it at the expense of the NDP.

[CITIZEN_2015]

Nanos tracking: Three-way national race very close

The Nanos poll numbers for Sept 18.

Edited October 5, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015
removed slur against Conservatives

[cybercoma]

Yeah. They're not trailing. That's a statistical tie still.

[ReeferMadness]

That CROP poll was in the field Sept 11-14 and hit up 375 people. The margin of error is 5.06%. The issue is that it was commissioned by the NDP though that shouldn't matter, since CROP is a reputable firm in Québec. As long as their methodology is sound, the results should be accurate. Another issue is that 25% of the respondents said they may still change their vote.

It seems like there is some controversy over this poll.

A dubious poll purporting to show Justin Trudeau trailing in his own Montreal riding has set off alarm bells in an industry already struggling to regain credibility after some spectacular failures to gauge election outcomes.

As part of its survey, CROP asked respondents how they voted in the 2011 election: 32 per cent said NDP, just 14 per cent said Liberal -- a far cry from the vote share each party actually scored last time, 28 and 38 per cent respectively.

Some deviation can be expected; people forget or lie about how they voted. But such a big discrepancy should have raised "huge questions" about how representative the survey sample truly was, said Christian Bourque, executive vice-president of Leger Marketing.

[ToadBrother]

Yeah. They're not trailing. That's a statistical tie still.

While I don't expect it to last, threehundredeight is projecting a tie between the Tories and NDP. I wonder how it would shake out if that situation were how it landed on election night. Harper has claimed (wrongly) that it is the party with the most seats who gets to form government, but in a tie between the Tories and someone else, the old rule that the incumbent government gets first shot would seem the most logical course of action, unless Harper truly believes there's no way he can produce a Throne Speech that will get enough votes.

I should add that in such a tight race, suddenly which provider provides the Speaker becomes awfully important, since the Speaker will only vote to break a tie.

Edited September 19, 2015 by ToadBrother

[Big Guy]

Before the last debate, an NDP commissioned poll resulted in Justin 11 points behind the NDP in his riding. After some questioning 4 other pollsters took their poll. Their result war that Trudeau was running 5 points ahead.

You folks still believe what these pollsters are telling you?

[cybercoma]

While I don't expect it to last, threehundredeight is projecting a tie between the Tories and NDP. I wonder how it would shake out if that situation were how it landed on election night.

Like you said, in the event of a tie, Harper gets the first opportunity to govern.

[cybercoma]

Before the last debate, an NDP commissioned poll resulted in Justin 11 points behind the NDP in his riding. After some questioning 4 other pollsters took their poll. Their result war that Trudeau was running 5 points ahead.

You folks still believe what these pollsters are telling you?

If what you say is true, then 4 out of 5 pollsters had similar results. So yeah. I believe those.