Federal Election Polls

[Shady]

Bad news for the NDP in Ontario. They trail badly in 3rd place now. The Conservstives are only 2 points behind the Librtals. Uh oh! Here comes Harper!

[Canada_First]

The socialists are dead in the water in the province of Ontario.

[Shady]

Last night's Nanos tracking:

Looks like reports of Harper's demise have been greatly exaggerated, or at very premature at the very least. Edited September 14, 2015 by Shady

[ToadBrother]

Looks like reports of Harper's demise have been greatly exaggerated, or at very premature at the very least.

As are any reports that the others are out for the count.

All the Nanos nightly releases are showing us is that all three parties are orbiting 30%.

[Canada_First]

As are any reports that the others are out for the count.

All the Nanos nightly releases are showing us is that all three parties are orbiting 30%.

It's going to be close all the way unless a party really blunders.

[Vancouver King]

I agree. It's been almost 10 years of Tory in power. After any government in power for that long people want change. I'm sure that even after NDP in power for 10 years we'd have a long list of things to mutually complain about.

It's going to be a real toss up. For sure. It's anyone's game right now. One serious blunder in anyone's campaign could be the difference.

Ask yourself this: If somebody told you one of 3 major parties contesting the current election had the following happen on their watch:

Two separate recessions, $150 billion of accumulated budget deficits, prominent senate appointee before courts and national tv for weeks, the party found in contempt of parliament, it's parliamentary ethics spokesman shackled and cuffed and led off to jail, it's PMO found covering up a scheme to deceive the public, etc. etc.

Now, if I told you the same party is neck and neck for first place you would undoubtedly find it hard to believe. So, I assume, do it's opponents.

[ToadBrother]

It's going to be close all the way unless a party really blunders.

And if the Tories actually want to form a government that's going to last, they need to at least gain a meaningful number of seats in excess of the other two. If we end up with a scenario where the Tories are only a handful of seats greater than their nearest rival, they won't have long as a government.

The Tories are going to need gain more ground in Ontario.

[cybercoma]

Innovative Research findings from Sept. 4-10 at the following link. http://www.innovativeresearch.ca/sites/default/files/pdf%2C%20doc%2C%20docx%2C%20jpg%2C%20png%2C%20xls%2C%20xlsx/150913_IRG_Wave_3_Integrated_Deck.pdf

Result top lines:

• 8-in-10 likely to vote, up since August
• Half have made up their mind already; Liberals and Undecideds want to hear more
• More people identify as Liberals in the ROC; QC 3-way tie in identities with Liberals, NDP, and Bloc
• Decided vote stands at 31% NDP, 30% LPC, 28% CPC
• Regional Breakdown
  • BC: 31% CPC, 22% LPC, 36% NDP
  • AB: 48% CPC, 23% LPC, 24% NDP
  • PR: 35% CPC, 31% LPC, 28% NDP
  • ON: 28% CPC, 39% LPC, 26% NDP
  • QC: 15% CPC, 21% LPC, 41% NDP, BQ 17%
  • AT: 24% CPC, 39% LPC, 29% NDP
• NDP captures the most party identifiers; Undecided split between NDP and LPC
• Combined vote (decided + lean) NDP 27%, LPC 27%, CPC 25%, Undecideds 8%
• Combined Regionals look much the same as above
• CPC is the second choice of only 5% of voters
• 57% of Liberal voters choose NDP as their second choice
• Outside QC: LPC-NDP swing is 15%, LPC-CPC swing is 6%, NDP-CPC swing is 3%
• Potential voters for LPC and NDP almost the same at 37% and 39% respectively
• 2 out of 5 voters would never vote for the CPC
• Desire for change/will to kick Harper out up since August
• Number of "time for a change Tories" voting CPC down 20% (8 points) since July
• Harper is the most familiar leader
• Trudeau up 5 points on net favourability, Harper down 8 points.
• Mulcair's favourability index plateaued, while Trudeau and May close the gap
• Mulcair most liked by his own base and undecided voters
• Net Leadership Impressions by region
  • Harper–BC -33%, AB 5%, PR -32%, ON -30%, QC -42%, AT -43%
  • Trudeau–BC 14%, AB -4%, PR 19%, ON 30%, QC 7%, AT 45%
  • Mulcair–BC 27%, AB -10%, PR 14%, ON 31%, QC 41%, AT 41%
  • May–BC 27%, AB 4%, PR 26%, ON 26%, QC 11%, AT 34%
• ​Mulcair seen as best PM by 32% with Harper close behind at 30%. Trudeau 26%.
• Leader Attributes
  • Harper seen as competent but too negative
  • Trudeau seen as least negative and represents positive change, but least competent
  • Mulcair seen as competent and representing positive change, not seen as too negative
  • May seen as standing for what people believe in and representing positive change
  • Duceppe too negative, but stands for what people believe in and is competent
• Liberals strong on protecting the middle class, representing Canada abroad, and having a vision for the future
• Conservatives strong on the economy, representing Canada abroad and job creation; weak on protecting the middle class
• NDP strong on understanding the needs of people, protecting the middle class, and having a vision for the future
• Top concerns: Economy, jobs, healthcare, and accountable government; 4% say refugees
• Most likely to say the Syrian refugee crisis is the top issue are NDP identifiers and CPC identifiers who think it's time for change
• Conflicted NDP voters up 4% since last month
• Half of what voters read/saw/heard about CPC recently has to do with the Syrian refugees and "pee-gate"
• Both the refugee crisis and pee-gate left people with less favourable impressions of the CPC
• "Time for change" CPC identifiers felt more favourable about what they saw/read/heard
• People read/saw/heard more about the LPC in the past month, but favourability didn't change
• Top things people RSH about the LPC involved the Syrian refugee crisis, ads for and against the LPC, and changes to EI
• The Syrian Crisis, EI changes, and higher taxes appear to be helping the LPC
• Time for change CPC and NDP identifiers liked what they heard about the LPC this month
• People recall more about reading/seeing/hearing about the NDP, but it's less favourable than last month
• Syrian Crisis is by far the top mention for Mulcair and the NDP
• NDP slightly positive on refugees and tech jobs, but negative on balancing the budget
• Nearly half of time for change Tories and over 1-in-3 LPC identifiers feel more favourable about the NDP this month
• 2/3 of voters are following the Syrian Crisis, which has a neutral to negative impact on CPC
• People uncertain about refugee application, time for change tories and voters hostile to CPC think it's true
• 1/3 of voters think the LPC would do a better job handling Syrian Refugees
• Plurality believe we're doing less than other countries to help
• 51% support increasing the number of Syrian Refugees admitted
• time for change tories want to see more military involvement with ISIS
• Canadians undecided whether military should be withdrawn in favour of humanitarian aid
• 49% support making it faster and easier for Syrian Refugees to enter Canada
• Plurality of voters want a humanitarian only response to refugee crisis (as opposed to military, mixed, or isolationist)
• CPC supporters want military or joint solution, plurality of time for change tories want humanitarian solution
• Most are aware of the controversies around Tory candidates, highest awareness with CPC identifiers
• Half feel the controversies are a symptom of deeper problems in the party, including 55% of unaligned voters
• Over 1-in-3 time for change Tories think it's symptomatic of deeper issues in the party
• CPC controversies have no impact on most voters, but 2/5 say they're less likely to vote CPC
• After hearing about the controversies time for change tories are more likely to vote for the CPC than even the core voters
• Recession has most attention in Ontario and the West, amongst Tories and Lib voters
• 3/4 say we're in a recession, highest in Alberta and amongst Libs and NDP
• More than half the respondents think the government needs to be an active partner to businesses, rather than taking a passive tax-cutting approach to the economy
• Libs and Tories split on best to handle the recession; time for change Tories side with CPC
• Those following the recession closely now pick the LPC instead of the CPC as best to handle the recession
• Trudeau economic plan (deficit spending) splits voters; slightly positive from time-for-changeTories and slightly negative from undecideds

[Vancouver King]

And if the Tories actually want to form a government that's going to last, they need to at least gain a meaningful number of seats in excess of the other two. If we end up with a scenario where the Tories are only a handful of seats greater than their nearest rival, they won't have long as a government.

The Tories are going to need gain more ground in Ontario.

What is your definition of "meaningful"

[The_Squid]

The polls indicate that it's still all-good for the country.... It looks like the worst that could happen is a CPC minority by a handful of seats.

A coalition government easily takes that away...

[Vancouver King]

The polls indicate that it's still all-good for the country.... It looks like the worst that could happen is a CPC minority by a handful of seats.

A coalition government easily takes that away...

Harper would sooner remove his own spleen with a pickle fork than head a formal coalition. Pray he ends up with under 150 seats - that way he is doomed and the country can finally close the file on this prime minister.

[ToadBrother]

What is your definition of "meaningful"

As a rough guess, a minimum of 20 seats greater than the Official Opposition.

Let's put it this way, in 2006 the Tory minority had 21 seats more than the Liberals. In 2008 the Tories had 66 seats more than the Liberals. The 2006 count was enough to make it work on a vote by vote basis, and the Liberals under Ignatieff all but agreed to prop up the much larger Tory minority from 2009 until the no confidence vote in 2011.

The Tories also had to face a highly divided Opposition after those two elections, with the Bloc still holding a prominent number of seats (51 in 2006 and 49 in 208). Any kind of deal to topple them would have required cooperation with the Bloc (which the Liberals and NDP found out was poison to any kind of government-toppling coalition). If things square up the way they are now, the Bloc will not represent a significant force in Parliament, and the Liberals and NDP will likely have more than enough votes together to bring the Tories down.

This is why I think comparisons to the two previous Tory minorities go far astray. It's likely that there will be a considerably different dynamic than 2006 and 2008, so even if the Tories get themselves 10 or 12 seats extra, I still think the NDP and Liberals will likely bring the Tories down.

The only caveat to this is if Harper tries to delay recalling Parliament until the New Year. He told Mansbridge he would bring Parliament back fairly quickly after the election, so if he wins only a narrow plurality, and he keeps his word, it's almost certain the Tories won't survive the first Speech from the Throne. While in some other time and place the Tories might convince one of the opposition parties to support his government by offering them some significant policy compromises, for the opposition, and in particular, Trudeau to support the Tories now would be poison.

[Derek 2.0]

Trudeau to support the Tories now would be poison.

Ahh but for Trudeau to support the NDP, playing second fiddle, would be suicide for not only Trudeau, but the Liberal party brand..........once the Liberal Party of Canada plays junior party in an NDP government, they are no longer politically relevant..........inversely, allowing a Tory minority to govern for 12-18 months can be spun as saving Canada from the dangerous socialist policies of the NDP, well keeping the next CPC leader in check, well attempting to work together blah, blah,blah etc.........

I think the only possible coalition that we could see is a Liberal led government with the NDP as junior partner, assuming the Tories only held a slim margin or outright lost in terms of total seats to the benefit of the Liberals.

[Derek 2.0]

Looks like reports of Harper's demise have been greatly exaggerated, or at very premature at the very least.

I'm not surprised the least, as I've been holding firm to my prediction of another Tory majority since the last election.

[ToadBrother]

Ahh but for Trudeau to support the NDP, playing second fiddle, would be suicide for not only Trudeau, but the Liberal party brand..........once the Liberal Party of Canada plays junior party in an NDP government, they are no longer politically relevant..........inversely, allowing a Tory minority to govern for 12-18 months can be spun as saving Canada from the dangerous socialist policies of the NDP, well keeping the next CPC leader in check, well attempting to work together blah, blah,blah etc.........

I think the only possible coalition that we could see is a Liberal led government with the NDP as junior partner, assuming the Tories only held a slim margin or outright lost in terms of total seats to the benefit of the Liberals.

I think any fear of the Liberals drying up and dying off can be swept aside. HArper's great project to destroy the party has been one of his most profound failures.

I think if the Liberals return to what they did from 2006 to 2008, and support a minority NDP government on a vote by vote basis, there's no great tainting.

[Keepitsimple]

I think any fear of the Liberals drying up and dying off can be swept aside. HArper's great project to destroy the party has been one of his most profound failures.

I think if the Liberals return to what they did from 2006 to 2008, and support a minority NDP government on a vote by vote basis, there's no great tainting.

......and if they don't? If most of the extra support the Liberals seem to have collected scrambles back to the Conservatives in the voting booth - and Libs are once again relegated to third party status with a Conservative majority......what then?

[Derek 2.0]

I think any fear of the Liberals drying up and dying off can be swept aside. HArper's great project to destroy the party has been one of his most profound failures.

I think if the Liberals return to what they did from 2006 to 2008, and support a minority NDP government on a vote by vote basis, there's no great tainting.

What is the upside for the Liberals to join in a coalition, as junior partner, when polls indicated they are on an upswing from their last showing? If the Government does well, in the next election, the NDP gain seats at the Liberal's expense, if it does poorly, the NDP and Liberals are painted with the same brush.......hence why Trudeau is ruling out a coalition.

Without a formal coalition, if the Tories won ~150 seats, on defeat, the GG will send us back to the polls (based on convention post King-Byng affair)........The Tories are the only ones that can afford an election........

[The_Squid]

Harper would sooner remove his own spleen with a pickle fork than head a formal coalition. Pray he ends up with under 150 seats - that way he is doomed and the country can finally close the file on this prime minister.

Haha

I meant the other two parties would form a coalition to defeat any CPC minority.

[ToadBrother]

......and if they don't? If most of the extra support the Liberals seem to have collected scrambles back to the Conservatives in the voting booth - and Libs are once again relegated to third party status with a Conservative majority......what then?

Then they're in trouble.

If most of those Red Tories preparing to vote Liberal do end up voting Liberal, then what for the Tories? It strikes me that Conservative partisans love to talk about how the Liberals are dying, but don't want to consider the possibility of a third place finish for the Tories.

[ToadBrother]

What is the upside for the Liberals to join in a coalition, as junior partner, when polls indicated they are on an upswing from their last showing? If the Government does well, in the next election, the NDP gain seats at the Liberal's expense, if it does poorly, the NDP and Liberals are painted with the same brush.......hence why Trudeau is ruling out a coalition.

Without a formal coalition, if the Tories won ~150 seats, on defeat, the GG will send us back to the polls (based on convention post King-Byng affair)........The Tories are the only ones that can afford an election........

Are we talking about the same King-Byng Affair. In the one in my history books, that's where Mackenzine King's attempt to call an early election in defiance of his agreement to not do so for two years as a condition of the Liberals retaining power despite not having a plurality of seats lead to the appointment. In particular, King attempted to call for dissolution avoid inevitable defeat, and when the GG refused his request, he had little choice but to resign and then Byng asked Meighen's Conservatives to form a government. Of course, the Liberals were able to quickly respond by getting the Progressives to help bring down the Meighen government, so in the end King got the election he wanted anyways.

The King-Byng Affair was ultimately about defining the powers that a GG could exercise during a hung Parliament, including the notion of putting conditions upon even a government that decides to continue governing even after it has lost a plurality.

As to whether a GG is required to drop the writ if a minority government is defeated on a confidence motion, the King-Byng Affair largely says the opposite to what you're saying and does suggest that even seven or eight months after an election, the GG is still within his right to ask another party to form a government.

[Canada_First]

If the Liberals and NDP are planning a coalition then they should run it as part if the respective party platforms. Let the public know up front of this plan.

[Smallc]

If the Liberals and NDP are planning a coalition then they should run it as part if the respective party platforms. Let the public know up front of this plan.

How could you plan for such a thing?

[ToadBrother]

If the Liberals and NDP are planning a coalition then they should run it as part if the respective party platforms. Let the public know up front of this plan.

What if they're not planning to form a coalition. The Tories demonstrated between 2006 and 2011 that a minority government can work without a coalition, so why is it you think the NDP or Liberals would be any different?

[Canada_First]

If the Tory win the most seats.

And the NDP and Grits are planning to run a coalition to defeat the Tory immediately without letting Harper govern. Then they should say so upfront. Let the people know that if they don't win they plan to vote against Harper no matter what he does or says.

[ToadBrother]

If the Tory win the most seats.

And the NDP and Grits are planning to run a coalition to defeat the Tory immediately without letting Harper govern. Then they should say so upfront. Let the people know that if they don't win they plan to vote against Harper no matter what he does or says.

Ah, I see. You've invented your own private definition of the word "coalition".