Federal Election Polls

[Derek 2.0]

You can't prorogue Parliament until it sits.

Sure.......and as I said, there is no requirement to face a confidence vote until early 2016........when said Minority Tory Government would present its speech from the Throne and new budget.......

[Queenmandy85]

I have a sense that the election may have begun to shift in the last day or so. I think Harper might just pull it off. I think he will get a large minority. I base this on the fact that Harper is one of the best politicians since MacKenzie King. He hasn't been a good Prime Minister, but he's a good politician.

I'm almost never been right.

[cybercoma]

I have said the other two parties could and likely would defeat the Tories on the Throne Speech. That isn't a coalition. You're trying to invoke a private definition for a very well understood and well defined political term to win a debate through semantics. Two or more parties voting the same way on a motion before the House is not a coalition.

I suspect if the Libeals are in third then they wouldn't vote down the throne speech. Derek's right about the Liberals playing second fiddle to the NDP. It's never going to happen. They're the Bay St. Party and when Trudeau was initially talking about co-operation, he got his knuckles smacked and changed his tune quickly. Moreover, the opposition parties won't have the funding necessary for another election if the Governor General decides to buck Westminster precedence around the world and actually drops the writs again. Even if they did, the public is so ignorant about our political institutions that the Tories would easily market it as the opposition trying to pull a coup and compare it to South American dictatorships. In order to avoid all this, I'm sure the Liberals would prop up the Tories, saying they believe they can work together to affect positive change.

[ToadBrother]

Sure.......and as I said, there is no requirement to face a confidence vote until early 2016........when said Minority Tory Government would present its speech from the Throne and new budget.......

The general rule is that a government is supposed to face Parliament at the earliest opportunity, and there's little excuse for a government to not recall Parliament until the New Year, other than to evade a potential defeat.

[ToadBrother]

I have a sense that the election may have begun to shift in the last day or so. I think Harper might just pull it off. I think he will get a large minority. I base this on the fact that Harper is one of the best politicians since MacKenzie King. He hasn't been a good Prime Minister, but he's a good politician.

I'm almost never been right.

Shift? It looks more to me like circling the 30% mark. Lots of time for someone to make a break for a larger chunk, and the assumption is the Tories, with higher vote efficiency, have a easier hill to climb.

We will see.

[Derek 2.0]

The general rule is that a government is supposed to face Parliament at the earliest opportunity, and there's little excuse for a government to not recall Parliament until the New Year, other than to evade a potential defeat.

Right, like in 2008/09.........

[ToadBrother]

Right, like in 2008/09.........

So basically, the plan here is to evade a Throne speech as long as possible to maximize the chances the GG would call new elections rather than ask someone else to govern.

[Derek 2.0]

So basically, the plan here is to evade a Throne speech as long as possible to maximize the chances the GG would call new elections rather than ask someone else to govern.

It is but one plausible scenario.

[ToadBrother]

It is but one plausible scenario.

Well, it may work, but I have a feeling that the conditions placed on the Prime Minister by Michaëlle Jean when she agreed to the 2008 prorogation might apply even where a minority government is attempting to delay a confidence test will apply here. One thing that the King-Byng Affair makes very clear is that the Governor General is not just a mindless automaton doing exactly what a Prime Minister wants, but rather that the Reserve Powers are significant enough to allow a Governor General to place conditions upon even an incumbent government attempting to use the Royal Prerogatives to its advantage.

Time will tell. It may even be that the Tories, or one of the others, gets such a large minority, or even a majority that this ends up being a soon forgotten "what if".

[The_Squid]

It is but one plausible scenario.

It's not plausible at all. That party would fail miserably at the polls. Talk about political suicide...

[Derek 2.0]

Well, it may work, but I have a feeling that the conditions placed on the Prime Minister by Michaëlle Jean when she agreed to the 2008 prorogation might apply even where a minority government is attempting to delay a confidence test will apply here. One thing that the King-Byng Affair makes very clear is that the Governor General is not just a mindless automaton doing exactly what a Prime Minister wants, but rather that the Reserve Powers are significant enough to allow a Governor General to place conditions upon even an incumbent government attempting to use the Royal Prerogatives to its advantage.

That is dependent on the GG believing said minority CPC Government, replacing its leader, then facing the House, is doing so for its own advantage, versus the advantage of good government for Canadians.

Time will tell. It may even be that the Tories, or one of the others, gets such a large minority, or even a majority that this ends up being a soon forgotten "what if".

And that is largely my point, in such a scenario, I feel it would very much so play out as described, if the Tories won a "healthy" plurality in the ~150+ seat range........in such a case, I would doubt very much the Liberals (if junior to the NDP's seat total) would vote against the Government (initially).

[ToadBrother]

That is dependent on the GG believing said minority CPC Government, replacing its leader, then facing the House, is doing so for its own advantage, versus the advantage of good government for Canadians.

I think it would be dependent on many things; proximity to an election, attempt to evade a confidence motion, the likelihood of the current Parliament being able to produce a stable government. But King-Byng makes it clear that a GG has a pretty wide latitude. His job is to assure Canada has a government

And that is largely my point, in such a scenario, I feel it would very much so play out as described, if the Tories won a "healthy" plurality in the ~150+ seat range........in such a case, I would doubt very much the Liberals (if junior to the NDP's seat total) would vote against the Government (initially).

Well, that much we can agree on. I think at 150 seats, the Tories would likely have a safe minority in the short term at least. It would be much harder for the opposition parties to justify bringing the government down, and much harder without some sort of formalized agreement (coalition or confidence and supply) to convince the Governor General that they should be given the opportunity to govern.

However, if we're talking about a slim majority of ten or fifteen seats, then it is possible providing the next largest party can demonstrate it has the support of enough third party and other MPs to make a stab at governing, I do believe the GG would give them the opportunity to govern, particularly if the slim Tory minority were to make a stab at avoiding the return of Parliament to the New Year. If King-Byng and what we know of the terms Michaëlle Jean imposed on Harper in return for prorogation (a short recess followed by a guarantee of support in Parliament), it would not surprise me in the least that if Harper attempted another prorogation, or even simply to avoid recalling Parliament until two or three months after the election, it very well could involve a Lord Byng style condition "Very well, Prime Minister, the House will not sit until January, but if you cannot command the confidence of Parliament, I will ask the Opposition to form a government."

And, as King-Byng makes clear, a GG is perfectly within his or her right to do so.

[Derek 2.0]

I think it would be

---SNIP---

within his or her right to do so.

Good, we're in agreement.

Edited September 16, 2015 by Charles Anthony
---SNIP---

[ToadBrother]

Good, we're in agreement.

On what exactly? Considering you basically excised my entire post to quote mine it, I question what your motives might be.

[Derek 2.0]

On what exactly? Considering you basically excised my entire post to quote mine it, I question what your motives might be.

Your post's conclusion echoed my point from several pages ago.......in that a large Tory minority would survive (for a time) and a small minority (or a loss of plurality) wouldn't, denouncing the thought of some that any thing less than a Tory majority will result in a change in Government.

[cybercoma]

Polling Tracker updated to include polls up to Sept. 15, shows a drop in Conservative support of 0.7% and the NDP still leading popular support at 31.5%. However, the seat forecast has the CPC in the lead at 116 seats to 114 NDP and 107 LPC.

http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/poll-tracker/2015/index.html

[Vancouver King]

Polling Tracker updated to include polls up to Sept. 15, shows a drop in Conservative support of 0.7% and the NDP still leading popular support at 31.5%. However, the seat forecast has the CPC in the lead at 116 seats to 114 NDP and 107 LPC.

http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/poll-tracker/2015/index.html

Perhaps more important than Nanos' usual 3-way tie is it's measure of the undecided at only 9.7%.

"Based on the tracking completed last night, the proportion of undecided voter stands at 9.7% which is lower than usual for the distance to election day. One month ago, near the beginning of the campaign, the undecided stood at 16.7%."

[cybercoma]

Nanos overnight polling last week.

[ToadBrother]

Your post's conclusion echoed my point from several pages ago.......in that a large Tory minority would survive (for a time) and a small minority (or a loss of plurality) wouldn't, denouncing the thought of some that any thing less than a Tory majority will result in a change in Government.

Well yes, a large minority guarantees probably a year or two of continued Tory rule. A small minority (say the tiny plurality the Tories are being projected to have today) wouldn't likely stand very long at all, even if the GG agreed not to recall Parliament until the New Year.

[ToadBrother]

Nanos overnight polling last week.

As I've been saying, the three parties are orbiting 30% and have been for weeks. If the Tories are counting on a majority or a large minority, they've got a month to figure out how to get it. Thus far, they've been pretty spectacular in their failure.

[cybercoma]

As I've been saying, the three parties are orbiting 30% and have been for weeks. If the Tories are counting on a majority or a large minority, they've got a month to figure out how to get it. Thus far, they've been pretty spectacular in their failure.

You know what the wedge issue is? Pipes. The LPC and NDP base are split on that. Of course, Harper's spectacular failure to deliver pipelines thus far also suggests he's not the best person to get them built either.

Edited September 16, 2015 by cybercoma

[ToadBrother]

You know what the wedge issue is? Pipes. The LPC and NDP base are split on that. Of course, Harper's spectacular failure to deliver pipelines thus far also suggests he's not the best person to get them built either.

Well, maybe. I can't imagine any of the parties wanting to draw that much attention to it in BC, where skepticism about pipeline safety is still pretty high. Certainly not the Tories, who have serious problems in Lotus Land.

And what's to be gained right now? With the price of oil doomed to be depressed for much of the rest of the decade, I don't think even Enbridge is in a hurry.

[Vancouver King]

Well yes, a large minority guarantees probably a year or two of continued Tory rule. A small minority (say the tiny plurality the Tories are being projected to have today) wouldn't likely stand very long at all, even if the GG agreed not to recall Parliament until the New Year.

Yesterday you said a 155 - 165 seat Tory minority was doomed. What changed in 24 hours?

[ToadBrother]

Yesterday you said a 155 - 165 seat Tory minority was doomed. What changed in 24 hours?

Then I misspoke. I don't think the Opposition would attempt to defeat the Tories if they had that count.

[Triple M]

Canadians don't elect leaders.......

i'm well aware of that just mentioned it because it could stabilize a hung parliament minority situation. If the NDP/LPC don't bring down Harper that might hurt one of them in the polls. However if the 3rd party doesn't have to worry about replacing harper then they might not want to risk propping up the official opposition.