Victory At Last

[xul]

I'll give it 10 years max in both Iraq and Afghanistan after U.S. troops leave when the "democratic" governments are overthrown and replaced with authoritarian regimes.

So Shady can proudly claim:

My ex-president has established not only democracy for Iraqi and Afghan, but also two massive irreversible military fortresses for America.....

[Guest American Woman]

So Shady can proudly claim:

My ex-president has established not only democracy for Iraqi and Afghan, but also two massive irreversible military fortresses for America.....

Shady's a Canadian.

[Sir Bandelot]

"According to UNHCR estimates, over 4.7 million Iraqis have been displaced since the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003.

Most ventured to Jordan and Syria, creating demographic shifts that have worried both governments. A fear persisted in both countries, and others hosting sizable Iraqi refugee populations, that sectarian tensions would spill over amongst the exiles. These refugees were estimated to have been leaving Iraq at a rate of 3000-per-day by December 2006.

Roughly 40% of Iraq's middle class is believed to have fled, the U.N. said. Most are fleeing systematic persecution and have no desire to return.

Entire neighborhoods in Baghdad were ethnically cleansed by Shia and Sunni militias and sectarian violence has broken out in every Iraqi city where there is a mixed population. Satellite shows ethnic cleansing in Iraq was key factor in "surge" success. Some areas are being evacuated by every member of a particular secular group due to lack of security, moving into new areas because of fear of reprisal killings.

As of 2007, the title "Kidnapping Capital of the World" belongs to Baghdad.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Refugees_of_Iraq

"Victory at last!" - Shady

Edited March 31, 2010 by Sir Bandelot

[scorpio]

Complete nonsense. But it's nice of you to characterize the view of democracy in the Middle East, sitting in your cozy democracy with rights and freedoms here in Canada.

Lol, we have less rights and freedoms now than before 911. Been to an airport lately?

[waldo]

that's right... 100,000+ civilian deaths... millions displaced across Iraq and into Syria, Jordan and other countries... ethnic cleansing... a tenuous balance holding it all together... corrupt elections... theocracy in waiting... but don't deny Shady his best Braveheart battle cry, "Victory At Last!" (Shady caveat: "yabut, an infant democracy is bound to have problems")

Unable to Return Home Safely, Uprooted Iraqis Grow Destitute and Desperate

17 Feb 2010 - Seven years into the Iraq conflict, millions of Iraqi civilians remain uprooted and desperate, but ongoing strife and persecution, occupied and ruined homes and lack of vital services in their communities of origin preclude most from returning home safely, says the International Rescue Committee’s Commission on Iraqi Refugees.

[Michael Hardner]

Sure, we have slightly less freedom than before 9/11. A major attack will do that. But it's a minimal level of restriction.

As for Iraq, surely it's not as outwardly peaceful as under the dictatorship, but things are definitely improving. Read the column and blog from this Canadian Iraqi in the NYT:

http://atwar.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/03/22/back-to-baghdad/

I have a mixture of feelings, sadness because I knew it from 10 years ago, and relief because people were saying, “It’s much better now than it was a few years ago.”

http://atwar.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/03/30/back-in-iraq-with-fresh-eyes/

The woman immediately blurted out: “I went and voted for Maliki. I jeopardized my life to vote.” She carried on: “Yet I am not bitter at Allawi’s win. Everybody who supervised the elections said there was no wrongdoing.” Mockingly, she added: “My son thought it was like a soccer game, whoever wins takes the trophy home and that is that,” then cited a Baghdadi proverb about a long, difficult and complicated process; “We never knew that it was measles and pox.”

Apparently Allawi has bonded with the people this past week; he is reaching out to them by reiterating his tragic experiences with the Baath regime. No longer is he appearing as an aloof figure coming from abroad to impose his Western ideals on the people. “Dude, he seems like a good person,” said the vendor in a low voice to his co-worker.

“Whoever sits on that chair will bear in mind to save the blood of the Iraqis. Is that too much to ask for?” said a passer-by. She paid the vendor and was hastily ushered hastily out by the clerk. “Isn’t that what democracy is all about?” she said, as she was leaving.

There's no reason to believe that people will not continue to work for peace once they have lived it.

[Shady]

As of 2007

I see, so you pick the worst and most chaotic year in Iraq, and superimpose that on 2010. The only victory in your post is for intellectual dishonesty.

[Born Free]

The number of car bombings in Iraq have dropped off considerably....

[M.Dancer]

The number of car bombings in Iraq have dropped off considerably....

Don't know about the methods but the tally of dead has dropped quite a bit

Feb 10 -32 ISF-- 204 Civilians (run up to election)

Feb 09 -39 ISF--163 Civilians

Feb 08 -110 ISF --564 Civilians

Feb 07 -150 ISF --2864 Civilians

http://icasualties.org/Iraq/IraqiDeaths.aspx

[Born Free]

Don't know about the methods but the tally of dead has dropped quite a bit

Feb 10 -32 ISF-- 204 Civilians (run up to election)

Feb 09 -39 ISF--163 Civilians

Feb 08 -110 ISF --564 Civilians

Feb 07 -150 ISF --2864 Civilians

http://icasualties.org/Iraq/IraqiDeaths.aspx

Things are really looking up over there...

[Sir Bandelot]

I see, so you pick the worst and most chaotic year in Iraq, and superimpose that on 2010. The only victory in your post is for intellectual dishonesty.

I heard it on the news two days ago, Canada has pledged to accept more refugees. This is coming from the Harper government. During the press conference, the minister invited an Iraqi refugee family as his guest, as an example of the type of people who need help and should be allowed into Canada. More refugees allowed in, from this right wing government? That prompted me to look into it. In light of your post here, these refugees are still displaced, yes, as of 2007. As it says, they cannot return home out of fear they will be killed. Thats your new democratic Iraq. Democracy does not work well in such environments. Witness Yugoslavia... decades under dictatorship. Harsh regime, yes. But often the only way to run a country, when the people are not tolerant enough to live amongst one another peacefully.

Why don't you do some research before you post this kind of misinformation? It would help more if you knew what you were talking about.

[xul]

Shady's a Canadian.

Thank you for reminding me....and God save the Queen....

[Oleg Bach]

So Shady can proudly claim:

My ex-president has established not only democracy for Iraqi and Afghan, but also two massive irreversible military fortresses for America.....

FREEDOM! Two more nations added to the evil empire...maybe they are the big satan and the east is the younger smaller brother.

[xul]

Don't know about the methods but the tally of dead has dropped quite a bit

Feb 10 -32 ISF-- 204 Civilians (run up to election)

Feb 09 -39 ISF--163 Civilians

Feb 08 -110 ISF --564 Civilians

Feb 07 -150 ISF --2864 Civilians

http://icasualties.org/Iraq/IraqiDeaths.aspx

Maybe it is just because most Americans have hidden inside the wall of Green Zone so AQs are having problem of finding targets.....

[M.Dancer]

Maybe it is just because most Americans have hidden inside the wall of Green Zone so AQs are having problem of finding targets.....

Yeah sure...civilian deaths have been out pacing US for a few years. Something in the order of 10 to 1. Many Iraqis hate their fellow iraqi more than the Americans...

It isn't paradise there, but the improvement can't be ignored of laughed off.

[Born Free]

Yeah sure...civilian deaths have been out pacing US for a few years. Something in the order of 10 to 1. Many Iraqis hate their fellow iraqi more than the Americans...

It isn't paradise there, but the improvement can't be ignored of laughed off.

Nobodys laughing. Its good to see such wonderful Sunni-Shia Relations in Iraq

[Shady]

Thats your new democratic Iraq.

Nope, that's the new emerging democratic Iraq. Listen, you can keep your head buried in the sand all you want, but it doesn't negate the significant progress made there over the last several years. And it won't negate the progress that's made there over the next several more. But by then, you'll move on to a brand new critique.

Why don't you do some research before you post this kind of misinformation? It would help more if you knew what you were talking about.

I did. That's why I had to call you on your cherry-picked 2007 reference. Not sure if you're aware, but it's 2010.

[Sir Bandelot]

Listen, you can keep your head buried in the sand all you want, but it doesn't negate the significant progress made there over the last several years. And it won't negate the progress that's made there over the next several more. But by then, you'll move on to a brand new critique.

My head is not buried Shady, I'm just trying to help you understand what you wrote is a gross oversimplification. The reports show there are lots of people suffering in Iraq, even now. It's debatable whether the situation is truly better than before. Different, yes, and I suspect better in some ways, but worse in others. One can only hope that as time goes on things will continue to improve and Iraq will actually become "better". But there are many complicating factors to consider in making that kind of assessment. The fact that there is a long-standing hatred between different religious groups makes it less than certain for a good outcome the long run. Democracy requires cooperation. When there is no willingness to cooperate and compromise between different people, then the choices become very limited. Then it's either ethnic cleansing, civil war or dictatorship.

That's why I had to call you on your cherry-picked 2007 reference. Not sure if you're aware, but it's 2010.

No I don't mean by looking at the calendar to find out what year it is Shady, I meant learning that the Iraqi refugee crisis is real and substantial. It may have peaked in 2007 during the worst part of the violence, but these people are still out of Iraq now, today and can probably never go home. At least Canada is now trying to do something about that.

So it appears you didn't know about this situation at all, but this forum is a great place to learn about many different things, don't you agree?

[Dithers]

All this talk on the legitimacy and success of the "emerging democracy in Iraq" has me wondering whether it is generally accepted that placing agreeable, democratic governments in foreign nations is a valid casus belli for war. If so, the United States has alot of crusading ahead to do.

Edited April 2, 2010 by Dithers

[xul]

Yeah sure...civilian deaths have been out pacing US for a few years. Something in the order of 10 to 1. Many Iraqis hate their fellow iraqi more than the Americans...

In the early years of American occupation, Bush administration tried to build a western-styled ture democracy, so American soldiers scattered in the cities and towns to disarm Saddam's army and all local warlords's militias. Obviously, these guys didn't like that, so they, of course and AQs bombed everywhere to sabotage American's rule and efforts.

In the last year of Bush's second term, American changed their mind and way. They mainly retreated into the Green Zoo and let the local warlords to rule their own regions, though all militias and ex-soldiers and ex-officers of Saddam's army have to wear new national army's uniforms to over up what they truly were. Since most of ex-paymasters of the suicide bombers have got their offices in the local governments even in the central government, they, and their ex-ally AQ of course don't need to bomb something to sabotage themself's rule.

It isn't paradise there, but the improvement can't be ignored of laughed off.

I agree with you on this---Bush went into a casino, after lost $1 million, now he and his successor has managed to win back $20 thousand......

Edited April 2, 2010 by xul

[bush_cheney2004]

All this talk on the legitimacy and success of the "emerging democracy in Iraq" has me wondering whether it is generally accepted that placing agreeable, democratic governments in foreign nations is a valid casus belli for war. If so, the United States has alot of crusading ahead to do.

Yes...that's how the United Stated was founded. Bye bye Crown!

[Sir Bandelot]

Yes...that's how the United Stated was founded. Bye bye Crown!

No it's not primarily about establishing democracy per se, but more specifically about establishing cooperation with the US regime. I'm sure you know that, but let me clarify-

In the Kirkpatrick Doctrine established under President Ronald Reagen, it was argued that stable dictatorships are useful especially when they oppose communism and are inclined towards western cooperation. It did not matter that the people in those countries enjoyed western style liberties.

"[Traditional autocrats] do not disturb the habitual rhythms of work and leisure, habitual places of residence, habitual patterns of family and personal relations. Because the miseries of traditional life are familiar, they are bearable to ordinary people who, growing up in the society, learn to cope . . . ."

"[Revolutionary Communist regimes] claim jurisdiction over the whole life of the society and make demands for change that so violate internalized values and habits that inhabitants flee by the tens of thousands . . . ."

So having pointed that out, let us now ask, who are the revolutionaries?

[Michael Hardner]

So having pointed that out, let us now ask, who are the revolutionaries?

The game, of course, has changed since the cold war ended, so that reference (20 years old) is even less helpful than the 3-year old reference on the situation in Iraq.

[Sir Bandelot]

The game, of course, has changed since the cold war ended, so that reference (20 years old) is even less helpful than the 3-year old reference on the situation in Iraq.

Some of you keep referring to the "three year old reference on the situation in Iraq", all the while ignoring how the fact remains, these people are still displaced and likely not going home.

But I know, that was SO yesterday...

Allow me to elaborate on the last point I brought up. Forget for a moment about the dates of things, think about the meaning of the definition of "victory". If you look beyond the immediacy of the reference to ccld war, and to the meaning of what Jean Kirkpatrick said about societies, you will understand why I posted it. We can't claim victory, unless the situation is proven as stable. Under Saddam's dictatorship, brutal as it was for the people of Iraq, it was stable and according to Kirkpatricks definition, successful societies are about stability. Although, Saddam was not cooperative with the west. Now we (ie. the US) have created a revolution in Iraq, destabilized it. In this sense alone it is "victorious". Kirkpatricks observation about inhabitants fleeing by tens of thousands, is quite timely in this regard.

[Michael Hardner]

You can claim victory at any time. GW Bush declared victory as soon as Saddam was gone, i.e. Mission Accomplished.

Or you could wait until Iraq becomes like Canada.

Ignoring the title of this thread, the OP contains this:

Something that looks an awful lot like democracy is beginning to take hold in Iraq

I think it's apt. I also continue to oppose war, on principle. It's usually a response to a problem that was ignored for too long. But I can see that good things can come from bad things too.