Canadian Political Polls

[myata]

Layton as the leader of official opposition? Layton star political performer? Layton uniting progressive political forces in the country?

OMG. It would have been funny if it wasn't so .. boring.

[normanchateau]

Why would a devout RC vote for a party who's leader is a protestant?

I suspect that a devout RC would vote for an Evangelical Christian like Stephen Harper. They have a lot in common.

[normanchateau]

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_june_17.pdf

The poll figures, analyzed by province and prorated for provincial populations reveal the following:

Outside of Alberta, which can only deliver Harper a maximum of 28 seats, the CPC now has 24.7% of decided voters.

The Liberals have 26.1%, a lead of 1.5% over the CPC in the rest of Canada.

Both major parties would likely benefit from a change in leadership.

[Oleg Bach]

What is this evangelical right garbage? Are you taking Frank Graves advice? If public opinion is what you say it is on this issue the NDP would be polling higher. To all but a small group legalizing pot is a non issue on the national stage. It simply isn't an issue, that many canadian's really care about.

Pot laws have nothing to do with the evangelical right - pot suppression is a mental and phyical health issue and not a religious or even moral one. As I mentioned the quality and the chemical composition of pot has changed _ it is no longer the take it or leave it mild weed of the 70s - It is now a hard drug. I see lots of young users that simply can not do without the substance - I see young and older people who simply can not think straight - it is much like alcohol and the insidious effects of daily drinking - it creates a mood that dictates to the logical mind that "everything is just jolly and all right as is" - This is a major national problem - many of our bright and talented kids are wired to this shit - and they do not have a sober day in order to evalutate their position or progress in life.

This phenomena is very similar to the scourge of opium that swept though China destroying young potential leadership - and it opened the door to communistic slavery-- There are those that rationalize the chronic use of the substance with 70s justification..that it is "natural" ---"a gift from God" - IT IS NO LONGER NATURAL AND IT CERTAINLY HAS BECOME A CURSE...

[normanchateau]

- This is a major national problem -

Relative to alcohol and nicotine addiction?

[madmax]

Both major parties would likely benefit from a change in leadership.

How many times do the Liberals have to change their leadership before they benefit?

And are you thinking the CPC could bring in the Next Stockwell day in order to give the LPC a shot at government?

[Shakeyhands]

How many times do the Liberals have to change their leadership before they benefit?

And are you thinking the CPC could bring in the Next Stockwell day in order to give the LPC a shot at government?

He's probably suggesting that the CPC replace Harper in order to gain a majority. They won't get one with him.

[Jack Weber]

He's probably suggesting that the CPC replace Harper in order to gain a majority. They won't get one with him.

If there is an election,and Haprer only gets another minority,he's as good as done...

[YEGmann]

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_june_17.pdf

The poll figures, analyzed by province and prorated for provincial populations reveal the following:

Outside of Alberta, which can only deliver Harper a maximum of 28 seats, the CPC now has 24.7% of decided voters.

The Liberals have 26.1%, a lead of 1.5% over the CPC in the rest of Canada.

Please, do not confuse voters in Canada with people answering the poll. I mean numerically. You simply cannot draw conclusions with accuracy of 0.1% for the country based on opinion of 1725 people.

[Remiel]

Please, do not confuse voters in Canada with people answering the poll. I mean numerically. You simply cannot draw conclusions with accuracy of 0.1% for the country based on opinion of 1725 people.

You can, to +/- 3%, 19 times out of 20.

[Hydraboss]

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_june_17.pdf

The poll figures, analyzed by province and prorated for provincial populations reveal the following:

Outside of Alberta, which can only deliver Harper a maximum of 28 seats, the CPC now has 24.7% of decided voters.

The Liberals have 26.1%, a lead of 1.5% over the CPC in the rest of Canada.

Both major parties would likely benefit from a change in leadership.

Well, Norm, since you're so good at math could you please figure out the following...

What would the CPC/Liberal numbers be if you didn't include the greater Toronto area (since they only deliver 22 or 23 seats to the Liberals)? What about if you didn't include Ontario as it only gave the Liberals 38 seats or maybe Kwebek because it only delivered 14?

Lets see...2008 election the Libs only got 77 seats; minus the 52 from Ontario and Kwebek and that gives them 15 seats of a possible 256 = 5.86% of seats.

If we calculate the same thing for the CPC, we get the 143 they got in 2008. Deduct the 61 they received from Ontario and Kwebek, and they're left with (143-61=82) 82 seats elected out of 256 available = 32.03% of seats.

The CPC have 32.03%, a lead of 26.17% over the Liberals in the rest of Canada.

There. Fixed that for ya.

You're right Norm, it IS fun to play with numbers until they say something you like...

Edited June 21, 2010 by Hydraboss

[Jerry J. Fortin]

The only numbers that count are tabulated on election day, and may that day come soon.

[LastViking]

Has the Liberal Party had enough of CBC personalities and pundits helping it yet? TrendLines Research gives Harper a 141-93 seat projection lead over Ignatieff, had a writ been dropped in early June. And when this result is averaged with the six other models, their riding projection chart shows the Conservatives have a 136-87 lead over the Liberal Party.

Edited July 2, 2010 by LastViking

[Jack Weber]

Has the Liberal Party had enough of CBC personalities and pundits helping it yet? TrendLines Research gives Harper a 141-93 seat projection lead over Ignatieff, had a writ been dropped in early June. And when this result is averaged with the six other models, their riding projection chart shows the Conservatives have a 136-87 lead over the Liberal Party.

This is why I suspect that Mr.Harper might try and rig an election for the early fall...Every time he's out of the publics eye,the Con numbers go up..The Lib numbers went down even when the House was sitting..

Iggy's a boat anchor on that party's fotunes...This might be Harper's best shot at getting the majority he craves by going in the fall...

Edited July 2, 2010 by Jack Weber

[PIK]

I remember a poll showing mulroney with 20% of the vote only to win the largest majority at the time.lol

[PIK]

Come election day harper will make up ground in BC and the atlantic ,with some more 905 seats ,he will have the majority.

[ToadBrother]

Come election day harper will make up ground in BC and the atlantic ,with some more 905 seats ,he will have the majority.

Bwahahaha! The Tories will be extremely lucky in BC if the anti-HST movement doesn't start cutting into their MPs.

[ToadBrother]

I remember a poll showing mulroney with 20% of the vote only to win the largest majority at the time.lol

And I remember the Tories having high 30s numbers nine months ago only to blow it because they prorogued Parliament again, even though they kept insisting Canadians didn't care.

It's amazing how often you use these forums for your strange Harper masturbation sessions.

[TimG]

The Tories will be extremely lucky in BC if the anti-HST movement doesn't start cutting into their MPs.

The anti-HST movement is a bizarre coalition of anti-tax types that want spending cut and soak-the-rich types that want corporate/income taxes raised instead. I would not make any assumption about where those votes go in an election.

[Keepitsimple]

Latest Ekos Poll - July 8th - Libs hit new low:

Conservatives: 34.4%

Liberals: 23.9

NDP: 17.9

Greens: 11.2

Bloc: 10.0

Link: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/grave-doubts-rising-in-liberal-land-as-support-hits-new-low/article1632695/

[Michael Hardner]

Latest Ekos Poll - July 8th - Libs hit new low:

Conservatives: 34.4%

Liberals: 23.9

NDP: 17.9

Greens: 11.2

Bloc: 10.0

Link: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/grave-doubts-rising-in-liberal-land-as-support-hits-new-low/article1632695/

Fall election - here we come.

[TimG]

Fall election - here we come.

I would be very surprised if conservatives are dumb enough to pull trigger after the prorogation blowback. My bet is this minority will make it 4 years. Edited July 8, 2010 by TimG

[Wild Bill]

I would be very surprised if conservatives are dumb enough to pull trigger after the prorogation blowback. My bet is this minority will make it 4 years.

4 years? You might be right! What an astonishing thing for Canadian politics, to have a minority government last 4 years!

Is this one for the record books? Should Harper consider this a feather in his cap?

[August1991]

Fall election - here we come.

Why?

From link:

That’s nearly 11 points back of the Conservatives who had the support of 34.4 per cent, which Mr. Grave predicts would give them 142 seats.

[ToadBrother]

4 years? You might be right! What an astonishing thing for Canadian politics, to have a minority government last 4 years!

Is this one for the record books? Should Harper consider this a feather in his cap?

If he reaches that point, yes, I think so. The Westminster system rarely breeds stable minorities. Of course, Harper owes a lot to a confused Liberal party with an obnoxiously inept and ineffective leadership. Look at the major near head-on collision, the battle over Parliamentary privilege. The revolt against the Government wasn't exercised by any of the opposition leaders. Now maybe they were content to let others take credit, but it's been my experience that party leaders are very quick to take the credit, or at least to have it "shared" with them. I really have a pretty good hunch that Iggy, at least, was rather ambivalent about that issue, not surprising if you consider he wants to be PM, and obviously no more wants to be constrained by an ornery Parliament than Harper does.

Still, if it does go full term, it will be the only minority government in modern times in the Westminster system that I am aware of that made it a full term (the National Governments like those in the UK during WWII don't count, they were coalitions).

Edited July 8, 2010 by ToadBrother