Canadian Political Polls

[normanchateau]

Harris Decima

CPC= 29%

LPC= 27%

NDP= 20%

Regional Breakdowns.

The Bloc Quebecois, meanwhile, tightened its grip on Quebec, scoring 45 per cent to the Liberals' 21 per cent and the NDP's 12. The Tories trailed with the Greens at 10 per cent.

In Ontario, the Liberals were ahead with 36 per cent. The Conservatives were at 31, the NDP at 19, and the Greens at 12.

The Liberals also led in Atlantic Canada, with 39 per cent, with the Tories at 31, the NDP at 24 and the Greens at five.

In B.C., the NDP pulled into a slight lead, with 31 per cent compared to 30 for the Tories, 21 for the Liberals and 18 for the Greens.

In Manitoba-Saskatchewan, the Conservatives were down eight points to 39 per cent, followed by the NDP at 31 per cent, the Liberals at 16, and the Greens at 12.

The Tories remained unchallenged in Alberta, with 56 per cent to the Liberals' 16, the NDP's 12, and the Greens' 14.

Among women voters, the Liberals, Tories and New Democrats were in a virtual three-way tie, with 28, 26 and 24 per cent respectively.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5i9f8UB2zdikwWwi2T_5gGGHQBQ2Q

Isn't Allan Gregg, who worked for both the US Republicans and Progressive Conservatives, CEO of Harris-Decima? Can we trust a Conservative pollster any more than we can trust a Liberal pollster like Frank Graves?

[ToadBrother]

Isn't Allan Gregg, who worked for both the US Republicans and Progressive Conservatives, CEO of Harris-Decima? Can we trust a Conservative pollster any more than we can trust a Liberal pollster like Frank Graves?

I'm still waiting for someone to demonstrate that there are problems with EKOS's polling. I mean, has anyone actually said "The methodologies are slanted to give the Liberals extra points?" I could care less about Graves' political leanings. What I care about is that a pollster might abuse statistical methods, or even defy them, to support their political party. Since no one has made that accusation, nor has any evidence been provided to demonstrate any issues of integrity, I think the whole thing is a tempest in a teapot.

[normanchateau]

I'm still waiting for someone to demonstrate that there are problems with EKOS's polling. I mean, has anyone actually said "The methodologies are slanted to give the Liberals extra points?" I could care less about Graves' political leanings. What I care about is that a pollster might abuse statistical methods, or even defy them, to support their political party. Since no one has made that accusation, nor has any evidence been provided to demonstrate any issues of integrity, I think the whole thing is a tempest in a teapot.

Don't hold your breath. If any Conservative strategist could find fault with EKOS' methodology, we would have heard about it by now. Similarly, if Allan Gregg's political leanings created bias in his polling, some Liberal strategist would have pointed out the flaws in the Harris-Decima methodology.

[Jack Weber]

http://www.examiner.com/examiner/x-22884-Canada-Politics-Examiner~y2010m4d27-Ignatieff-should-ignore-Frank-Graves

When I saw the results of the poll you posted, I was thinking it's interesting the drop of Conservative support seems to have gone to the NDP and not the Liberals.

I suspect that comes from the interior of BC where the Cons have bled to the Dips...That's generally a very close race,riding by riding.The rise in the NDP numbers might be because scandal seems to have infected both the traditonal ruling parties and the NDP might be taking advantage of the fact that they simply are'nt the other two?

[normanchateau]

I suspect that comes from the interior of BC where the Cons have bled to the Dips...That's generally a very close race,riding by riding.The rise in the NDP numbers might be because scandal seems to have infected both the traditonal ruling parties and the NDP might be taking advantage of the fact that they simply are'nt the other two?

The rise in NDP numbers in BC might also reflect the fact that the provincial NDP is now at 47% in the polls whereas the governing party, the BC Liberals whose policies are more aligned with those of the federal Conservatives than the federal Liberals, has dropped to 29%.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/35380/ndp_holds_double_digit_lead_in_british_columbia/

[capricorn]

The rise in NDP numbers in BC might also reflect the fact that the provincial NDP is now at 47% in the polls whereas the governing party, the BC Liberals whose policies are more aligned with those of the federal Conservatives than the federal Liberals, has dropped to 29%.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/35380/ndp_holds_double_digit_lead_in_british_columbia/

It looks like the same dynamic is at play in Quebec where Charest's popularity is tanking.

The Bloc still leads with 38 per cent, the Liberals are at 21 – a drop of 4 points since last month and 6 months lower than in the January poll. The Conservatives are stable at 17 per cent, tied with the NDP, which has risen by 3 points in the past month.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/spector-vision/federal-liberals-down-ndp-up-charest-craters/article1531062/

[normanchateau]

It looks like the same dynamic is at play in Quebec where Charest's popularity is tanking.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/spector-vision/federal-liberals-down-ndp-up-charest-craters/article1531062/

Good point. The numbers do differ somewhat in the latest Harris-Decima poll:

"The Bloc Quebecois, meanwhile, tightened its grip on Quebec, scoring 45 per cent to the Liberals' 21 per cent and the NDP's 12. The Tories trailed with the Greens at 10 per cent."

Both the Liberals and Conservatives seem to be bleeding support to the Bloc.

[Smallc]

It's funny, a year ago, the Liberals were tied with the Bloc. How the crappy have fallen.

[charter.rights]

It's funny, a year ago, the Liberals were tied with the Bloc. How the crappy have fallen.

Even funnier that a year ago the Conservatives were ahead of the Liberals in Quebec. How crappy to be in third place in the province that made the difference in the last election.

[Smallc]

Even funnier that a year ago the Conservatives were ahead of the Liberals in Quebec. How crappy to be in third place in the province that made the difference in the last election.

I'm not sure if those were the exact numbers....but yes, both crappy parties fell...and the other one that's even crappier went up.

[punked]

Even funnier that a year ago the Conservatives were ahead of the Liberals in Quebec. How crappy to be in third place in the province that made the difference in the last election.

4th place really, I think if you look at likely voters right now the NDP would edge them out.

[punked]

I'm not sure if those were the exact numbers....but yes, both crappy parties fell...and the other one that's even crappier went up.

The NDP? I would clump them in with the other two crappy parties.

[Smallc]

The NDP? I would clump them in with the other two crappy parties.

No, I meant the one who's goal it is to break up the rest of the country.

[punked]

No, I meant the one who's goal it is to break up the rest of the country.

Yeah those guys blow, but they wont last forever.

[charter.rights]

Yeah those guys blow, but they wont last forever.

Actually for democracy's sake I think parliament will become more fractured as regional parties pop up to represent their constituents. Getting rid of the 3 or 4 party system is a good thing as real democracy isn't bulldozed through but is discussed and debated from every angle and point of view. Ducceppe is probably the only party leader who has remained true to his mandate.

[punked]

Actually for democracy's sake I think parliament will become more fractured as regional parties pop up to represent their constituents. Getting rid of the 3 or 4 party system is a good thing as real democracy isn't bulldozed through but is discussed and debated from every angle and point of view. Ducceppe is probably the only party leader who has remained true to his mandate.

That just isn't true. Sometimes you need change to happen. Look to the US right now and tell me the process of slowing down much needed legislation is a good thing?

[msdogfood]

Harris Decima

CPC= 29%

LPC= 27%

NDP= 20%

Regional Breakdowns.

The Bloc Quebecois, meanwhile, tightened its grip on Quebec, scoring 45 per cent to the Liberals' 21 per cent and the NDP's 12. The Tories trailed with the Greens at 10 per cent.

In Ontario, the Liberals were ahead with 36 per cent. The Conservatives were at 31, the NDP at 19, and the Greens at 12.

The Liberals also led in Atlantic Canada, with 39 per cent, with the Tories at 31, the NDP at 24 and the Greens at five.

In B.C., the NDP pulled into a slight lead, with 31 per cent compared to 30 for the Tories, 21 for the Liberals and 18 for the Greens.

In Manitoba-Saskatchewan, the Conservatives were down eight points to 39 per cent, followed by the NDP at 31 per cent, the Liberals at 16, and the Greens at 12.

The Tories remained unchallenged in Alberta, with 56 per cent to the Liberals' 16, the NDP's 12, and the Greens' 14.

Among women voters, the Liberals, Tories and New Democrats were in a virtual three-way tie, with 28, 26 and 24 per cent respectively.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5i9f8UB2zdikwWwi2T_5gGGHQBQ2Q

Now that is very interesting!!.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

Those numbers spell big trouble for the Conservatives. With a lead in only Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba they will loss their minority government without doubt.

[Smallc]

New EKOS poll:

Conservatives: 31.9

Liberals: 26.6 (wow)

NDP: 17.6

Green: 10.9

Bloc: 9.7 (I don't like when the Bloc goes above 9)

Other: 3.3

Only 20% of people think that Ignatieff is doing a good job vs 33% for Harper...Layton stands at 43% (again, WTF?)

http://www.cbc.ca/politics/story/2010/04/29/ekos-poll-april-29.html

[capricorn]

It seems that regardless of what the opposition raises against the Conservatives, nothing is sticking to the point wiping out the government's lead in the polls. Let's see. The Afghan detainees issue has been been pounded by the opposition for some four years now. The opposition's outrage at the December prorogation yielded little long term hurt. The Jaffer matter has had wall to wall media coverage for some six months. All these files have dominated Question Period in the House and Parliamentary Committee business. And of course intermittently, we've had a variety of stuff like Wayne Easter's doorknob scandal and waffergate. For political junkies, it's all quite spectacular to watch and interpret.

[Dave_ON]

December prorogation yielded little long term hurt.

On this point I'm starting to wonder actually. The CPC hasn't really recovered the numbers they had prior to the furor surrounding December prorogation. I would have thought they would have been back up to their 10 point lead they were enjoying in late fall of 09 by now. The CPC may not be going down steadily but they certainly aren't moving up any time soon either. This poll only shows us that we haven't really moved anywhere for well over 4 months now.

[ToadBrother]

It seems that regardless of what the opposition raises against the Conservatives, nothing is sticking to the point wiping out the government's lead in the polls. Let's see. The Afghan detainees issue has been been pounded by the opposition for some four years now. The opposition's outrage at the December prorogation yielded little long term hurt. The Jaffer matter has had wall to wall media coverage for some six months. All these files have dominated Question Period in the House and Parliamentary Committee business. And of course intermittently, we've had a variety of stuff like Wayne Easter's doorknob scandal and waffergate. For political junkies, it's all quite spectacular to watch and interpret.

Oh come on. The Tories had a 10+ point lead in the polls last fall. Now the best they can muster is a very marginal point or two up from the Liberals passed the margin of error. They've damaged themselves heavily. The story is that Iggy has utterly failed to capitalize on the Government's weakness. The prorogation blew a hole in Tory support that hasn't returned, despite all this talk of Haiti and Olympic feel-goodism saving the day.

But spin spin spin if you like.

[capricorn]

Oh come on. The Tories had a 10+ point lead in the polls last fall.

I know that. My observations were with regard to the fact they're still leading in the polls in spite of all the negatives piling up. I never addressed the span of the lead they held then and now.

But spin spin spin if you like.

What have I spun?

[eyeball]

I never addressed the span of the lead they held then and now.

What have I spun?

You spun out when you dodged the span.

Edited April 29, 2010 by eyeball

[ToadBrother]

I know that. My observations were with regard to the fact they're still leading in the polls in spite of all the negatives piling up. I never addressed the span of the lead they held then and now.

What have I spun?

Trying to make what amounts to at most a two point spread past the margin of error as a positive sign for the Tories.