And Just Like That..... All the Polls Say it's a TIE! Whodathunkit?

CdnFox · Tuesday at 05:36 AM

even posters like ecos with the absolutely detestable Frank Greaves who swore he would use his powers to defeat poilievre now show the liberals and conservatives at basically a tie after weeks of insisting that there was double digit spreads between them

I don't know why but a lot of posters this election put their thumbs on the scales I think. You look at their methodologies and you look at what they said and there were a few that were fairly honest but most were less so.

As I predicted a few days ago now that we're getting close to the end they're all going to pretend that they're pulling is saying it's magically a tie. Last night, everybody changed their minds and that hugely leads vanished and wow it's actually a tie now who'da thunk it

This will allow them to pretend that they were at least close no matter who wins.

It's pretty obvious from some of the commentary that they believe that the conservatives are trending right now and have momentum. The poles are currently showing a liberal minority. I have a funny feeling we're going to see a conservative minority in reality but you never know.

If that happens I expect that mark carney will drop out of politics and go do something else despite having promised that he was in it for the long haul win or lose. Hopefully at that point the conservatives will call a snap election and say seeing as they got A free ride in the last leadership race there's no point in waiting for them to finish this one

August1991 · Tuesday at 05:58 AM

A federal Liberal minority is a win. With the NDP, the Liberals have a majority - under control.

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I have not done the seat count yet - Canada is regional, Ontario is hard - but I reckon that it will be a federal Liberal minority.

August1991 · Tuesday at 06:08 AM

Singh will no longer be NDP leader. But I fear that this model in Canada of "religious/cult people" choosing a leader will not end.

Fortunately, we ordinary Canadians have a long history of voting across religious lines.

CdnFox · Tuesday at 06:25 AM

25 minutes ago, August1991 said:

A federal Liberal minority is a win. With the NDP, the Liberals have a majority - under control.

If the polling is accurate there will be no NDP. They won't even have official party status. They won't be in a position to prop up anybody.

And if there are enough NDP to make a difference that would come at the expense of liberal seats and then they probably wouldn't have a minority, the conservatives would.

Right now based on polling specifically I would say that it would be a liberal minority with a CPC opposition and the block holding the balance of power. The NDP wouldn't even be on the radar

West · Tuesday at 06:34 AM

The nazis are trying to suppress the vote and intimidate people into compliance

August1991 · Tuesday at 06:39 AM

In America, they have only had two Catholic presidents: JFK and Biden.

In this federal Canadian election, as many others, both Carney and Poilievre are Catholic -raised, baptised.

An issue in the past - not now.

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I was surprised with the French language of Carney, Poilievre and Singh. (It is hard to speak any language in public - ask Kamala Harris.)

These Anglo guys can speak French like Turner - but not like Mulroney.

August1991 · Tuesday at 06:46 AM

16 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

If the polling is accurate there will be no NDP. They won't even have official party status. They won't be in a position to prop up anybody.

And if there are enough NDP to make a difference that would come at the expense of liberal seats and then they probably wouldn't have a minority, the conservatives would.

Right now based on polling specifically I would say that it would be a liberal minority with a CPC opposition and the block holding the balance of power. The NDP wouldn't even be on the radar

I haven't done the numbers/seats.

But I reckon the NDP will keep enough seats to keep status.

And the federal Liberals will not win a majority.

Boges · Tuesday at 02:19 PM

The CPC won the popular vote last election and still lost.

The FPTP system rewards broad-based support. If PP can't do well in Ontario and Quebec, who cares if he has extraordinary support out East and West.

Michael Hardner · Tuesday at 02:32 PM

11 minutes ago, Boges said:

The FPTP system rewards broad-based support.

And results in odd effects such as the BQ being invited to participate in debates

Moonbox · Tuesday at 03:03 PM

33 minutes ago, Boges said:

The CPC won the popular vote last election and still lost.

The FPTP system rewards broad-based support. If PP can't do well in Ontario and Quebec, who cares if he has extraordinary support out East and West.

He's getting clobbered out East as well, by almost 17 points. He's +10 points down in Ontario and 16 points down in Quebec.

I'd love to see where genius is getting his polling information from though, because the only pollster I've been able to find showing the race is a tie is Mainstreet Research.

I'm not prepared to make any prediction here. The polls still look really bad for Poilievre from what I can tell, but I find it hard to believe the Liberals can actually get re-elected after Trudeau pooped all over Canada.

Michael Hardner · Tuesday at 03:06 PM

2 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

I'd love to see where genius is getting his polling information from though, because the only pollster I've been able to find showing the race is a tie is Mainstreet Research.

Look at that... why you are right 😮

https://338canada.com/polls.htm

Didn't realize that at all. They ARE rated A- which is a high rating.

Moonbox · Tuesday at 03:19 PM

6 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

Look at that... why you are right 😮

https://338canada.com/polls.htm

Didn't realize that at all. They ARE rated A- which is a high rating.

Yeah I think they are fine. They're supposedly the 4th-5th most reliable in Canada, which sounds bad but is actually pretty good.

I'm just confused by where we get "All the Polls say it's a TIE" when it appears to only be a single pollster out of many. 😑

Michael Hardner · Tuesday at 04:17 PM

55 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

I'm just confused by where we get "All the Polls say it's a TIE" when it appears to only be a single pollster out of many. 😑

I'm not sure who is saying it, not appearing in my feed but most of us who quote the "polls" seem to be circumspect when looking at it. And that's how it should be.

Moonbox · Tuesday at 04:23 PM

1 minute ago, Michael Hardner said:

I'm not sure who is saying it, not appearing in my feed but most of us who quote the "polls" seem to be circumspect when looking at it. And that's how it should be.

Just our resident genius, it seems. He probably got it from the fine "journalists" at Rebel News. 🫠

eyeball · Tuesday at 04:23 PM

5 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

I'm not sure who is saying it,

The OP's toaster.

It's probably tuned to Rebel News.

Moonbox · Tuesday at 04:24 PM

Just now, eyeball said:

The OP's toaster.

It's probably tuned to Rebel News.

beat you to it, sucka.

eyeball · Tuesday at 04:25 PM

Just now, Moonbox said:

beat you to it, sucka.

You must be closer to Rosie's antenna.

CdnFox · Tuesday at 04:41 PM

9 hours ago, August1991 said:

I haven't done the numbers/seats.

But I reckon the NDP will keep enough seats to keep status.

And the federal Liberals will not win a majority.

If the ndp keeps status it's questionable if the libs will get a minority, or if they do it will be so small that the cpc and any other party will knock them out. THe ndp won't have the balance of power based on the polls right now

CdnFox · Tuesday at 04:44 PM

2 hours ago, Boges said:

The CPC won the popular vote last election and still lost.

The FPTP system rewards broad-based support. If PP can't do well in Ontario and Quebec, who cares if he has extraordinary support out East and West.

It's worth noting that harper won his majority without needing a single seat in Quebec. If he hadn't gotten a single Quebec seat he still would have had a majority.

At the end of the day no system is perfect But in this day and age you still need decent support in the west unless you're going to have a weak minority

2 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

And results in odd effects such as the BQ being invited to participate in debates

Wouldn't they be even more likely to be invited to participate in debates in one of the other models? I'm not sure how fptp results in them being invited to the debates where others wouldn't?

CdnFox · Tuesday at 04:47 PM

1 hour ago, Moonbox said:

He's getting clobbered out East as well, by almost 17 points. He's +10 points down in Ontario and 16 points down in Quebec.

I'd love to see where genius is getting his polling information from though, because the only pollster I've been able to find showing the race is a tie is Mainstreet Research.

I'm not prepared to make any prediction here. The polls still look really bad for Poilievre from what I can tell, but I find it hard to believe the Liberals can actually get re-elected after Trudeau pooped all over Canada.

LOL what, you were too afraid to ask me directly? ROFLMAO! I guess it makes sense seeing as you always wind up looking stupid

Nanos:

LPC 42.6, CPC 37.1 - basically withn their margin, last week had libs at 45

Mainstreet

LPC 39, CPC 40

Ekos

lpc 43 cpc 40 again, pretty close to margin, they had the libs with a 12.5 lead only a couple of days ago.

Angus

libs 44 cpc 39, still showing an actual liberal lead but considering they were 10 points apart 2 days ago it magically tightened overnight,

And so on.

The various pollsters had widely different results last week with a huge range of results, a number in the double digits for the spread. As i mentioned at the time, the polls were not appearing to be accurate and there were serious issues. I predicted that the polls would suddenly all show something very close to a tie going into the last week and explained why.

Don't hate me because i'm right and you're wrong again

Edited Tuesday at 04:55 PM by CdnFox

Moonbox · Tuesday at 04:55 PM

6 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

LOL what, you were too afraid to ask me directly? ROFLMAO! I guess it makes sense seeing as you always wind up looking stupid

You're the one looking stupid here, muppet.

Why bother asking you directly? You so regularly prove yourself full of shit that it felt safe to assume this was another example of you clowning yourself. Feel free to prove otherwise. 🙄

CdnFox · Tuesday at 04:58 PM

32 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

Just our resident genius, it seems. He probably got it from the fine "journalists" at Rebel News. 🫠

31 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

beat you to it, sucka.

32 minutes ago, eyeball said:

The OP's toaster.

It's probably tuned to Rebel News.

Awww look at that guys, the 'cdnfox made me cry" club showed up You guys must be getting a little worried it would seem. It's not looking good for a liberal majority which i'm sure you thought was in the bag last week

Nice to see you guys hugging each other for emotional support like that i know it's tough having to cope with having your stupidity highlighted so often

CdnFox · Tuesday at 05:02 PM

3 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

You're the one looking stupid here, muppet.

Sure kiddo You didn't have the balls to ask me directly about something and I'm the one that's looking stupid

Quote

Why bother asking you directly? You so regularly prove yourself full of shit that it felt safe to assume this was another example of you clowning yourself. Feel free to prove otherwise. 🙄

HAHAHAA!!! Well that's about as strong an admission of failure on your part as i can imagine

Oh maybe you reply to this without reading things carefully but I have already provided the evidence long before you wrote this.

So that still leaves you as being not only a coward, but also an !diot and someone who is so desperately neurotic that they will write someone else to ask a question Instead of just asking me and they're only defense is that the question wasn't really worth asking even though you asked it

What a damaged little person you are LOL

Moonbox · Tuesday at 05:07 PM

Just now, CdnFox said:

Sure kiddo You didn't have the balls to ask me directly about something and I'm the one that's looking stupid

I just did dumdum. Show us where all of the polls say it's a tie, or we can safely conclude that you've clowned yourself...again.

As for the rest, make up your mind over which fantasy you're going to subscribe to. Am I the coward too afraid to engage you, or am I the sad puppy following you and engaging you everywhere? 🫠

eyeball · Tuesday at 05:20 PM

9 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

It's not looking good for a liberal majority which i'm sure you thought was in the bag last week

It's looking a lot better for the minority government I'd much rather see. Which way matters less really. A little humble pie for Conservatives from having to negotiate what it wants to do instead of just ramrodding everything through would suit me just fine too.

Remember when you were crowing about a three term Conservative/Poilievre future? Maybe Canada's greatest PM you said. That cookies sure crumbled hasn't it?