Conservatives win longtime Liberal stronghold Toronto-St. Paul's in shock byelection result - Will Trudeau Step Down?

[CdnFox]

Conservatives win longtime Liberal stronghold Toronto-St. Paul's in shock byelection result | CBC News

Conservative candidate Don Stewart has won the longtime federal Liberal stronghold of Toronto-St. Paul's, a stunning result that raises questions about Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's future.

Stewart's victory is shocking because the seat has been held by the Liberals for more than 30 years — even through the party's past low points, such as the 2011 federal election that returned just 34 Liberal MPs to Parliament.

The Liberals' poor showing in a stronghold like this could prompt some soul-searching for Trudeau, who has seen his popularity plummet as inflation, the cost of living crisis, high home prices and surging immigration levels drive voter discontent.

This Conservative upset is likely to lead to some anxiety in the Liberal caucus because such a dramatic vote swing could put other supposedly "safe" seats in play for the Conservatives in the next general election.

[Michael Hardner]

Agree and disagree.  The question is not about his "future" which is as a political "was" but about his immediate plans.  It wouldn't be shocking if he resigned in the coming months or even weeks.

[CdnFox]

It wasn't even really a squeaker - 42.1 to 40.5.  A clear victory. 

This will put ENORMOUS pressure on trudeau to step down. 

Having said that you're back to the same old problem of who is going to replace him? The liberals have very much become the party of Trudeau rather than the party of the liberals and there really is nobody who would stand a great chance against Poilievre. They would risk pulling a Kim Campbell and destroying the party.

Not to mention the fact that there is not much time between now and the next election in order to hold a leadership race

[Nefarious Banana]

1 minute ago, Michael Hardner said:

Agree and disagree.  The question is not about his "future" which is as a political "was" but about his immediate plans.  It wouldn't be shocking if he resigned in the coming months or even weeks.

Hope Trudeau stays . . . 

[CdnFox]

Just now, Michael Hardner said:

Agree and disagree.  The question is not about his "future" which is as a political "was" but about his immediate plans.  It wouldn't be shocking if he resigned in the coming months or even weeks.

It could really go either way. If it were any other leader in our history i'd be sure he'd resign.  But i think his ego and such may very well compel him to stay if he can.  I think there's going to be a lot of back room revolt action happening and that kind of division can cause permanent rifts in a party. 

And truth be told it IS theoretically possible things can get better for trudeau. They might convince themselves that he still a winning horse and it will come down to a campaign.

But I think that they will be worried that it only gets worse from here and they could face a complete collapse. I think if they can find a plausible replacement that will be able to stave off disaster they will probably try and push him out, they may even try and force an election if he refuses to step down

[Michael Hardner]

5 minutes ago, Nefarious Banana said:

Hope Trudeau stays . . . 

It does not matter.  There is only a slight chance a new leader could do better than Trudeau against Poilievre at this point and with the time remaining.   Oct 2025 is the next election I think.

[CdnFox]

5 minutes ago, Nefarious Banana said:

Hope Trudeau stays . . . 

Yeah i think that's our best option   but honestly it could very well kim campbell on them if they switch too. What support the liberals do have right now is mostly their core base which still believes in trudeau. Take that away and they could be in even worse shape and have even more trouble getting people out to the polls come election day.

Remember, any new leader would become Prime Minister instantly. They would still have to run the country and they would still have to own the track record and probably inherit a lot of the unhappiness with the liberals.

[CdnFox]

1 minute ago, Michael Hardner said:

It does not matter.  There is only a slight chance a new leader could do better than Trudeau against Poilievre at this point and with the time remaining.   Oct 2025 is the next election I think.

Yes, it's October 2025. Or sooner if the NDP decides to do a backstab.

And in that time they would not only have to hold a leadership convention which takes 6 to 9 months, but then the new leader would have to clean house and prepare for an election campaign, a process that normally takes about a year and a half by itself.

Which means it'll all be rushed and corners would have to be cut and worse  the new leader would instantly be prime minister and have to actually run the country. Which means you can't focus on getting ready for the next election and you have to wear every political issue that comes up while you are technically prime minister

The liberals have no great choices right now. They could still sink lower with Trudeau and worse they may find that they can't get their vote out. Meaning even if their support doesn't drop their support on polling day could easily fall by 50%. We saw something similar with the provincial liberals and NDP during the last Ontario election

[Nefarious Banana]

14 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

It does not matter.  There is only a slight chance a new leader could do better than Trudeau against Poilievre at this point and with the time remaining.   Oct 2025 is the next election I think.

Hoping he stays . . . to realize the contempt that the majority of Canadians have for him.  

[CdnFox]

Just now, Nefarious Banana said:

Hoping he stays . . . to realize the contempt that the majority of Canadians have for him.  

The guy is getting quarter million dollar airplane food for free. I think he holds us in such low regard that he doesn't care what we think, we're just here to pay his bills and shut up. 

[ExFlyer]

30 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

The guy is getting quarter million dollar airplane food for free. I think he holds us in such low regard that he doesn't care what we think, we're just here to pay his bills and shut up. 

Ahhh, you're juts pissed cause you didn't get to lick the plate LOL

Get over it...old old news LOL

Oh and you are right, he does not give a rats ass what you think

[CdnFox]

Just now, ExFlyer said:

Ahhh, you're juts pissed cause you didn't get to lick the plate LOL

dude - you have got some of the weirdest fantasies out there. And that's saying something  

And sorry - we'll be rubbing the liberal's nose in that for a long time to come. Get ready for 3 terms of Conservatives kiddo,  as this byelection proves people are done with the woke. 

[Moonbox]

44 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

It does not matter.  There is only a slight chance a new leader could do better than Trudeau against Poilievre at this point and with the time remaining.   Oct 2025 is the next election I think.

There's over a year until the election.  That's plenty of time for a leadership race.  If the Liberals are so unpopular under Trudeau that they're giving up seats they've held for over 30 years, none of his MPs are safe.  They'd be crazy to go to election with him in charge - political seppuku.  

Crazy sometimes happens, of course, but I this is the writing on the wall.  I'd be surprised if Trudeau isn't forced to resign before the end of summer, and it would be long overdue. 

[CdnFox]

Just now, Moonbox said:

There's over a year until the election.  That's plenty of time for a leadership race. 

It's time enough for the race, but the new leader would require about a year and a half to get ready for an election in practical terms. If you think a new leader can just immediately launch into an election campaign you are woefully unaware of how politics works.

And in this case they will also have to run the country. And any problems that come up at all they will wind up wearing.

Look at Poilievre. After he won the leadership, it took a solid year of him going out there and working like a dog to raise his profile and sell his message so that voters would vote for him. And he's still working on it. Even if they have an abbreviated leadership race of 6 months that only leaves them 10 months to put together an entire election campaign, so the image of the new leader to Canadians as somebody who's different than Justin, and run the country and deal with any issues that come up like poor economy or a crisis or anything.

While it is technically possible it is practically impossible. Nobody's ever done it. They always drop compared to the last election. It was true for Campbell, Turner, martin, anyone who's ever tried.

[Legato]

4 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

There's over a year until the election.  That's plenty of time for a leadership race.  If the Liberals are so unpopular under Trudeau that they're giving up seats they've held for over 30 years, none of his MPs are safe.  They'd be crazy to go to election with him in charge - political seppuku.  

Crazy sometimes happens, of course, but I this is the writing on the wall.  I'd be surprised if Trudeau isn't forced to resign before the end of summer, and it would be long overdue. 

[CITIZEN_2015]

No wonder they lost.  Watch this what happened to Canada since Liberals took over in 2015:

The dark side of Canada

 

Edited June 25, 2024 by CITIZEN_2015

[CdnFox]

1 minute ago, Legato said:

Crazy sometimes happens, of course, but I this is the writing on the wall.  I'd be surprised if Trudeau isn't forced to resign before the end of summer, and it would be long overdue. 

They can't actually force him. They can only pressure him enormously, or they could actually force an election but then they have to go with him in charge.

And the thing is they're all going into their ridings right now. They won't gather again until the end of summer when they have their fall caucus

So unless he steps down of his own free will which is pretty unlikely given his track record it's probably going to be September before he steps down if he steps down at all. And now you're talking one year away from the next election and that is just begging for disaster

[Michael Hardner]

11 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

There's over a year until the election.  That's plenty of time for a leadership race.  If the Liberals are so unpopular under Trudeau that they're giving up seats they've held for over 30 years, none of his MPs are safe.  They'd be crazy to go to election with him in charge - political seppuku.  

Crazy sometimes happens, of course, but I this is the writing on the wall.  I'd be surprised if Trudeau isn't forced to resign before the end of summer, and it would be long overdue. 

The candidate who replaces him would be instantly skewered and done in politics in all probability.  

3 minutes ago, CITIZEN_2015 said:

No wonder they lost.  Watch this what happened to Canada since Liberals took over in 2015:

Do we really need a manufactured video to put the idea together ?  I say no.

[Moonbox]

6 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

Look at Poilievre. After he won the leadership, it took a solid year of him going out there and working like a dog to raise his profile and sell his message so that voters would vote for him. And he's still working on it.

This is more about the implosion of the Trudeau Liberal brand than Poilievre's efforts.  He's still wildly disliked and mistrusted, though strongly preferred over the even more wildly disliked and mistrusted Justin.  

7 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

While it is technically possible it is practically impossible. Nobody's ever done it. They always drop compared to the last election. It was true for Campbell, Turner, martin, anyone who's ever tried.

Martin won an election.  There's almost no chance a new Liberal leader will, but that's not what this is about.  It's about survival.  If Liberal MPs want any hope of keeping their seats, they need to shed the anchor around their necks that is Justin Trudeau.  

9 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

The candidate who replaces him would be instantly skewered and done in politics in all probability.

Maybe, but even an interim straw-leader would offer a better chance for Liberal MPs to keep their seats than Trudeau's poisonous presence.  

[CdnFox]

1 minute ago, Moonbox said:

This is more about the implosion of the Trudeau Liberal brand than Poilievre's efforts.  He's still wildly disliked and mistrusted, though strongly preferred over the even more wildly disliked and mistrusted Justin.  

Anybody that the liberals hire will be disliked and mistrusted. Freeland? Any of the others? They're all wearing to those stink.

At the best of times as I said history shows it takes time to prepare for an election and get your name out there. And time is something they just don't have until the next election. And there is always the risk that the NDP will choose to be opportunists and stab them in the back early.

Quote

Martin won an election.

Martin lost a strong majority. As i said, they always do worse. And in a minority that means you didnt win the election, you lost less badly than the others. 

Now if Trudeau had a really strong  majority right now maybe they'd only drop to a minority.  But as things stand it's going to be a lot worse than that

 

Quote

There's almost no chance a new Liberal leader will, but that's not what this is about.  It's about survival.  If Liberal MPs want any hope of keeping their seats, they need to shed the anchor around their necks that is Justin Trudeau.  

That's what the conservatives said about Mulroney. Anything is better than this they said. What did they wind up with again? Two seats? Four?

Now Justin and the liberals don't have a version of the reform party to deal with but it could still go Michael Ignatieff bad for them in a heartbeat

 

Quote

Maybe, but even an interim straw-leader would offer a better chance for Liberal MPs to keep their seats than Trudeau's poisonous presence.  

That just isn't guaranteed. Any of the brand name liberals that have any kind of recognition in Canada are completely tainted with Justin and it would take a lot of effort to get people to overlook that. Effort that they won't get time to put in. And what very frequently happens is people stay home in droves because they're mad at the liberals and they don't know and don't care about the new leader.

Trudeau has remained relatively stable in the polls for the last four or five months. He's between 23 and 27%. That is a devastating defeat there is no doubt, but he doesn't seem to be sinking lower. And there is always the possibility of something happening to reduce Poilievres chances Between now and the next election, or the economy might take a sudden positive turn and people might feel less anger and frustration.

 

There is no white night savior sitting in the wings waiting to save the liberal party. Carney can't, he's never even won a seat before. The rest are tainted. It would be a huge risk to replace Trudeau right now and they absolutely could do worse with someone else. That is a very real possibility

[ExFlyer]

43 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

dude - you have got some of the weirdest fantasies out there. And that's saying something  

And sorry - we'll be rubbing the liberal's nose in that for a long time to come. Get ready for 3 terms of Conservatives kiddo,  as this byelection proves people are done with the woke. 

Hey loser, that is how Canadian politics works,  3 terms liberal, 3 terms conservative. That is how it has been and will remain to be. LOL

Oh and while it is good the liberals lost it was by a pretty small margin. Ontario needs to drop a lot of liberals to ensure trudeau gets the boot.

Edited June 25, 2024 by ExFlyer

[blackbird]

The liberals still have a year and a half to promise to spend billions on everything under the sun. That is their strategy.

[taxme]

3 hours ago, CdnFox said:

Yes, it's October 2025. Or sooner if the NDP decides to do a backstab.

And in that time they would not only have to hold a leadership convention which takes 6 to 9 months, but then the new leader would have to clean house and prepare for an election campaign, a process that normally takes about a year and a half by itself.

Which means it'll all be rushed and corners would have to be cut and worse  the new leader would instantly be prime minister and have to actually run the country. Which means you can't focus on getting ready for the next election and you have to wear every political issue that comes up while you are technically prime minister

The liberals have no great choices right now. They could still sink lower with Trudeau and worse they may find that they can't get their vote out. Meaning even if their support doesn't drop their support on polling day could easily fall by 50%. We saw something similar with the provincial liberals and NDP during the last Ontario election

Those great pensions will keep the NDP from going against the dictator in Ottawa. The NDP needs the dictator in Ottawa to push the election date back one week in order for them to get their NDP undeserved pensions. It has always been and about and for the NDP party and not for we the people. Sadly, we are stuck with the Marxist dictator and his Marxist bum  buddy in Ottawa for anther year and a half. By then, Canada could be burnt down to the ground. Just saying. 😒

[taxme]

2 hours ago, CITIZEN_2015 said:

No wonder they lost.  Watch this what happened to Canada since Liberals took over in 2015:

The dark side of Canada

 

I remember when his old man won the election in 1980. The first words out of his Marxist mouth were "welcome to the new Canada".  Yup, we sure did end up with a new Marxist like country. And his punk kid pretty much said the same thing. Welcome to the new Canada. Thanks to those two Marxist misfits Canada cannot be recognized as it once did numerous decades ago. It has become close to looking like a third world hell hole. 👎

[CdnFox]

2 hours ago, ExFlyer said:

Hey loser, that is how Canadian politics works,  3 terms liberal, 3 terms conservative.

There hasn't been three terms of either since long before the 90s.  ROFLMAO!!!

But hey, thank's for showing up and giving us all a laugh and pointing out you're dumber than a brick