Ukraine Can't Win the War

[Perspektiv]

"The long-awaited counteroffensive last year failed. Russia has recaptured Avdiivka, its biggest war gain in nine months. President Volodymyr Zelensky has been forced to quietly acknowledge the new military reality"

"The implication of Ukraine standing indefinitely on the defensive—even if it does so successfully—is that the territories currently occupied by Russia are lost. Russia will never agree at the negotiating table to surrender land that it has managed to hold on the battlefield."

With a looming US election and the realities on the battleground, one can't help but wonder why one would want to delay the inevitable any longer.

[I am Groot]

51 minutes ago, Perspektiv said:

With a looming US election and the realities on the battleground, one can't help but wonder why one would want to delay the inevitable any longer.

The inevitable is that Russia gobbles up Ukraine. If you think that a ceasefire would hold Russia back longer than it takes for them to reequip and rearm his military you're mistaken. Putin has made it clear that Ukraine - ALL of it - is part of Russia. 

He has made it almost as clear that he intends to rebuild the Soviet Union. Once he's done with Ukraine, the Baltic states and Georgia will be next. Belarus will be annexed, and then the new and mightier Russia will go for Poland.

Western states are now starting to rearm, except Canada. They're pouring money into armament plants and tripling orders for missiles, tanks and other weapons, except Canada. They need time before a confident Putin can push into NATO territory.

Edited February 25 by I am Groot

[Moonbox]

1 hour ago, I am Groot said:

Western states are now starting to rearm, except Canada. They're pouring money into armament plants and tripling orders for missiles, tanks and other weapons, except Canada. They need time before a confident Putin can push into NATO territory.

BUT we have a thriving public sector bureaucracy populated by minorities, at least.  That's got to count for something, right?  Stand with Ukraine Justin.  Show them how you're meeting your diversity quotas.  😑

[herbie]

We just promised to give what could be our increased NATO spending to Ukraine.

But you're suggesting we should abandon the Ukraine to it's fate and buy time to  arm ourselves for when Russia comes after us.

Chamberlains and surrender monkeys

[Perspektiv]

9 hours ago, I am Groot said:

They need time before a confident Putin can push into NATO territory.

I don't see how Russia can successfully do this on it's own, when its military struggled with Ukraine, albeit not using the full weight of it's force, but nonetheless highly embarrassing.

[Perspektiv]

5 hours ago, herbie said:

But you're suggesting we should abandon the Ukraine to it's fate

I don't see how negotiating an end to this conflict is abandoning Ukraine, considering their allies would be on the hook to further defend them from further aggression as well as assisting with them rebuilding their country.

There is no way out of this conflict. Period.

There is no way Ukraine wins. This is essentially the west trying to deplete Russia as much as possible, by keeping them entangled in this war as long as they possibly can. There is no possibility of any advancement, any regaining of land.

Russia has heavily booby trapped the land they have acquired, making it suicide for Ukraine to do anything about it, without heavy handed air support.

Zelensky is aware of this, even conceding to this. The west will eventually tire from pouring billions into this conflict, with zero gains being made.

Ultimately, what should have happened from the onset, will be how this comes to an end.

Any leader who talks Ukraine, without an end game, isn't in support of Ukraine. They're in support of trying to fight Russia via Ukraine and inflict as much loss to them as they possibly can, while aware this is a futility drill.

[I am Groot]

24 minutes ago, Perspektiv said:

I don't see how Russia can successfully do this on it's own, when its military struggled with Ukraine, albeit not using the full weight of it's force, but nonetheless highly embarrassing.

A lot of corrupt and incompetent generals have been quietly shot, or sent forward to die bravely at the front, while companies that made hugely overpriced gear are now making free gear to make up for it. And they have drafted in hundreds of thousands of replacement troops, and are trying to make sure that, unlike the cannon fodder they used in year one and much of year two, they are properly equipped.

[Perspektiv]

2 minutes ago, I am Groot said:

A lot of corrupt and incompetent generals have been quietly shot, or sent forward to die bravely at the front, while companies that made hugely overpriced gear are now making free gear to make up for it. And they have drafted in hundreds of thousands of replacement troops, and are trying to make sure that, unlike the cannon fodder they used in year one and much of year two, they are properly equipped.

I just don't see that holding up against NATO, should they poke the bear too much.

Putin is calculated. A lot in the west want to paint him as a loose cannon. He is far from it. The globe would be under threat if he was.

Ben Shapiro made a good quote, describing how some soldiers would use their bayonets (to describe how soft the west have been). I.E If they feel mush, keep pushing. Once you feel iron, stop. Am paraphrasing what he said, but that describes Putin to a T.

He knows where the weakness is, considering how brazen his attack on Ukraine was. If he felt there would have been push back, he wouldn't have dared.

I don't have the answers as to what the west needs to do--but the deterrence must make him know an attack would lead to his doom, or expect them to continue, until he gobbles the entire country.

[I am Groot]

10 hours ago, Perspektiv said:

I just don't see that holding up against NATO, should they poke the bear too much.

I don't know if you've been paying much attention to military matters, but the West ain't no bear. Germany, for example, had, at one point not that long ago, about four fighter aircraft that were fully functional, and barely enough missiles to equip them. Their tanks are mostly not working. All of their units are greatly understrength. The British have hugely reduced the size of their infantry, and meanwhile their air force was involved in a huge scandal when it emerged that part of the reason they were short of pilots was they were refusing to recruit white men. All of the Nato countries (except the Americans) have let their militaries run down. And right now only the Americans have much ammunition stored. Canada has almost none, and I doubt more than a handful of our tanks are fully functional in working condition. Same goes for our fighter aircraft. Our subs spend most of their time at dock, and there's not enough crew to man our frigates.

A country that can draft in several hundred thousand men and equip them can rebuild and rearm and take a lot more punishment than European countries can right now. Of course, I haven't mentioned Turkey, but then, Turkey isn't exactly a reliable ally. 

10 hours ago, Perspektiv said:

Ben Shapiro made a good quote, describing how some soldiers would use their bayonets (to describe how soft the west have been). I.E If they feel mush, keep pushing. Once you feel iron, stop. Am paraphrasing what he said, but that describes Putin to a T.

Yes, agreed. Which is why I think Canada's military should be better equipped and positioned up north. 

10 hours ago, Perspektiv said:

I don't have the answers as to what the west needs to do--but the deterrence must make him know an attack would lead to his doom, or expect them to continue, until he gobbles the entire country.

It needs to rearm. Fast. The Europeans are starting to do that, but in typical western fashion for many of them. Almost every nato country but Canada has voted big increases in spending but it will take a while for that to show up in increased military abilities. Ie, the Germans hugely increased their spending two years ago but haven't really spent anything yet because the effort to buy new weapons is tied up in procurement and contracting. Sweden reinstituted the draft, but I doubt many Western countries would stand for that. 

[Moonbox]

11 hours ago, Perspektiv said:

Putin is calculated. A lot in the west want to paint him as a loose cannon. He is far from it. The globe would be under threat if he was.

He's calculated, but operating within a dictatorship where the information that flows to the top has been what Putin wants to hear, rather than the reality.  He'd never have invaded Ukraine in the first place if not for the misguided belief it would be over quickly, that the Ukrainians wouldn't resist tooth-and-nail, and that the Russian "bear" was even remotely as capable as everyone had previously understood.   

11 hours ago, Perspektiv said:

He knows where the weakness is, considering how brazen his attack on Ukraine was. If he felt there would have been push back, he wouldn't have dared.

Exactly.  Whoops. 

The self-serving delusion that democracies are soft and incapable of showing resolve or defending themselves is one that has led many dictators to their doom.  

 

[Perspektiv]

6 hours ago, I am Groot said:

I don't know if you've been paying much attention to military matters, but the West ain't no bear.

They rely on the US having claws. In Biden, they have a teddy bear, at best. 

A Build a Bear prior to stuffing, no less. Just a lifeless hollowed out carcass. Thats what is keeping the world safe. 

Thats like having a note on your car telling people to think twice of stealing your belongings, vs an actual alarm and GPS. 

Underlining the twice two times, to show you mean business.

Canada's military is a joke, but at least they likely would have tampons in the men's washrooms which will be useful for first aid if anyone ever challenged us militarily.

6 hours ago, Moonbox said:

He's calculated, but operating within a dictatorship where the information that flows to the top has been what Putin wants to hear

Thats his massive handicap. Hitler's downfall. That and going big vs efficient, and other things.

But he has nukes, which tends to stop people in their tracks. 

But an incredibly incompetent circle of power to use them.

6 hours ago, Moonbox said:

has led many dictators to their doom.  

I don't think this will be the case with Putin, but he will stand to lose any global standing he could have had.

[Moonbox]

1 hour ago, Perspektiv said:

Canada's military is a joke, but at least they likely would have tampons in the men's washrooms which will be useful for first aid if anyone ever challenged us militarily.

Sadly yes.  Well-trained infantry, no equipment or support.  

1 hour ago, Perspektiv said:

Thats his massive handicap. Hitler's downfall. That and going big vs efficient, and other things.

But he has nukes, which tends to stop people in their tracks. 

It stops people from trying to invade Russia.  It is not an effective threat for bullying your neighbours.  "Give us your territory or we nuke you" is a one-way ticket to the end of the world.  Whatever threats Russia makes around that, you have to assume even the servile donkeys in the Russian military wouldn't trigger Armageddon and consign their families to fiery deaths for the sake of one man's vanity. 

1 hour ago, Perspektiv said:

I don't think this will be the case with Putin, but he will stand to lose any global standing he could have had.

 He already has no global standing.  Russia's a pariah state and quickly becoming a client of China.  

Edited February 26 by Moonbox

[Aristides]

7 hours ago, I am Groot said:

I don't know if you've been paying much attention to military matters, but the West ain't no bear. Germany, for example, had, at one point not that long ago, about four fighter aircraft that were fully functional, and barely enough missiles to equip them. Their tanks are mostly not working. All of their units are greatly understrength. The British have hugely reduced the size of their infantry, and meanwhile their air force was involved in a huge scandal when it emerged that part of the reason they were short of pilots was they were refusing to recruit white men. All of the Nato countries (except the Americans) have let their militaries run down. And right now only the Americans have much ammunition stored. Canada has almost none, and I doubt more than a handful of our tanks are fully functional in working condition. Same goes for our fighter aircraft. Our subs spend most of their time at dock, and there's not enough crew to man our frigates.

A country that can draft in several hundred thousand men and equip them can rebuild and rearm and take a lot more punishment than European countries can right now. Of course, I haven't mentioned Turkey, but then, Turkey isn't exactly a reliable ally. 

Yes, agreed. Which is why I think Canada's military should be better equipped and positioned up north. 

It needs to rearm. Fast. The Europeans are starting to do that, but in typical western fashion for many of them. Almost every nato country but Canada has voted big increases in spending but it will take a while for that to show up in increased military abilities. Ie, the Germans hugely increased their spending two years ago but haven't really spent anything yet because the effort to buy new weapons is tied up in procurement and contracting. Sweden reinstituted the draft, but I doubt many Western countries would stand for that. 

All the Scandinavian countries and Finland have conscription. As does Switzerland.

Edited February 26 by Aristides

[Dougie93]

there was a moment where Russia was reeling and Ukraine was poised to win decisively

but then NATO simply failed to provide Ukraine with military hardware in sufficient quantities

instead of hundreds of tanks, armoured fighting vehicles & artillery pieces

Ukraine was provided with dozens

and NATO dithered for a full year before deciding that Ukraine needed F-16's

in the meantime, the Kremlin was able to regroup and dig in,  with a massive defence in depth

so the window of opportunity for the Ukrainians to win outright has been closed

allowing the Russians to reimpose a stalemate with a Russian bridgehead in the Donbass

[Nationalist]

Meh...a treaty was inevitable. Only those who want a proxy war thought otherwise. 

They were wrong.

[Perspektiv]

14 hours ago, Moonbox said:

It stops people from trying to invade Russia.  It is not an effective threat for bullying your neighbours. 

I would agree in most cases as you're correct, but the US has taken an incredibly cautious tone vs Putin's sabre rattling about nuclear strikes. RE: to the tune of looking weak.

He's drawn tons of red lines in the sand and put hypothetical nukes behind them. 

Ukraine called the bluff and not a single nuclear strike.

But am not in those closed caucuses but to me it seems to be one of the reasons behind the immense hesitancy from Biden’s administration to send the weapons Ukraine needed, and quickly.

But yeah, nukes don't work as if someone truly calls your bluff you have no choice to commit political suicide by using them, knowing the retaliatory strikes for doing so, would be a near extinction level event for your country.

Not even Kim Jong Un is that crazy, even though he would love the world to think that he is.

15 hours ago, Moonbox said:

He already has no global standing.

He still has sprinklings of influence, but in the shadows of China  

So, not quite Somalia pirates bad, or North Korea drug rings bad, but discount prostitute that still owns a car, bad.

It sucks, but it's still somewhat respectable when you consider who he does business with.

Kind of like a homeless person I heard talking while taking a power walk downtown.

He was talking about how one of his buddies had just rationed his money, and managed to buy a bike:

"Wow, a bike? Damn, dude has ambition" He was talking to a woman, who was in full agreement with him.

Thats Russia. Shameful to most, but to North Korea you have bodyguards running along the president's vehicle.

A bicycle looks rather luxurious in proper perspective.

[QuebecOverCanada]

17 hours ago, Moonbox said:

 He already has no global standing.  Russia's a pariah state and quickly becoming a client of China.  

Please tell me how this is a good development for the Western World, to have two very strong countries that were apart on many aspects and have territorial/influence conflicts, and now to have them allied or subservient to one another. How is it a good thing for us?

[Moonbox]

3 hours ago, Perspektiv said:

But am not in those closed caucuses but to me it seems to be one of the reasons behind the immense hesitancy from Biden’s administration to send the weapons Ukraine needed, and quickly.

I think early on the hesitancy was around the belief that Ukraine wouldn't last more than a few weeks, and that giving modern NATO weapons to a country that would be quickly overrun was a bad idea.  Some of what you're saying is probably also true.

At this stage, most of the hesitancy is coming from Republicans (and especially Trump) holding up any funding. 

1 hour ago, QuebecOverCanada said:

Please tell me how this is a good development for the Western World, to have two very strong countries that were apart on many aspects and have territorial/influence conflicts, and now to have them allied or subservient to one another. How is it a good thing for us?

Not too very strong countries.  One very strong country, and one weak and rotten one pretending to be.  

Russia being subservient to China isn't a good thing for us, but letting them overrun Ukraine would have been worse.  Everyone has to make the best of the mess Russia made.  

[QuebecOverCanada]

4 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

Not too very strong countries.  One very strong country, and one weak and rotten one pretending to be.  

Double speak example;

Russia is extremely dangerous and is extremely strong, is about to conquer Europe if we don't save Ukraine!

Russia is extremely weak, the second best army in Ukraine and rotten to the core!

So, what is it?

[Moonbox]

3 minutes ago, QuebecOverCanada said:

Double speak example;

Russia is extremely dangerous and is extremely strong, is about to conquer Europe if we don't save Ukraine!

Russia is extremely weak, the second best army in Ukraine and rotten to the core!

So, what is it?

I didn't say either, so I guess the better question is what game are you playing at? 

[QuebecOverCanada]

Just now, Moonbox said:

I didn't say either

Quote

Not too very strong countries.  One very strong country, and one weak and rotten one pretending to be.  

Once, again, double speak... on the double speak.

Which game am I playing? None. I'm pushing your contradictions to your face, because they are very obvious and have a goal of pushing war against Russia, which I oppose 100%.

[Moonbox]

Just now, QuebecOverCanada said:

Which game am I playing? None. I'm pushing your contradictions to your face, because they are very obvious and have a goal of pushing war against Russia, which I oppose 100%.

There are no contradictions.  You can be weak and rotten, but still dangerous.  🙄

[QuebecOverCanada]

24 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

There are no contradictions.  You can be weak and rotten, but still dangerous.  🙄

And still, you find the increasing cooperation, or even vassalization between Russia and China a good thing overall?

So our game to intimidate Russia through sanctions and military supply/covert ops made our enemies much more powerful and united.

[Moonbox]

Just now, QuebecOverCanada said:

And still, you find the increasing cooperation, or even vassalization between Russia and China a good thing overall?

Is that what I said, or did I say this?

45 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

Russia being subservient to China isn't a good thing for us, but letting them overrun Ukraine would have been worse.  Everyone has to make the best of the mess Russia made.  

😑

[QuebecOverCanada]

16 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

Russia being subservient to China isn't a good thing for us, but letting them overrun Ukraine would have been worse.  Everyone has to make the best of the mess Russia made. 

OK, my bad.

I think you're still wrong though. The occupation of Ukraine would have been difficult to say the least, and the youth is incredibly more European than Russian culturally speaking.

In the event as to which Putin would have conquered Kiev in 2022 and installed a puppet State, there would be many friction behind the scene as Putin has only a few years ahead of him.

The popular pressure would have mounted up and Ukraine would eventually be in the EU, over a few decades maximum. Putin would not have invaded a NATO member. MAD exists.

I think Russia is even more powerful now than it was before the war. And even more dangerous, as it has less economic ties with the West.