The Smalling World

[August1991]

Decades ago, on the cusp of freedom, I travelled in India and China. Heck, I got a Soviet transit visa in Beijing - and boarded the train with a guy from Boston. 

As a Canadien, I have little patience for people like Brennan - let alone Obama.  I met both types of Americans while travelling then. (Later, I reckoned the Obama should have given a far better speech when speaking about the relations ...  I digress....) 

Nowadays, China is richer. India is richer. Billions of people in India and China are better off.

======

Here's my two points:

1. In Canada, America, everyone is thinking that we will have too many people.

2. What about a world where there are fewer people? Fewer ideas? Less people to do stuff?

Edited September 18, 2022 by August1991

[August1991]

The world population will peak at 9 billion people in 2050, then it will staivirt to fall.

I saw the population pyramid of India recently. Amazing.

====

Iceland has a population of some 300,000. A society sustainable for a thousand years or more. The Icelanders are crazy by my standards - but they`re, civilised.

Newfoundlanders, similar.

Et les Québécois?  

Edited September 18, 2022 by August1991

[Dougie93]

7 hours ago, August1991 said:

2. What about a world where there are fewer people? Fewer ideas? Less people to do stuff?

actually, this is Canada

Canada is collapsing do to a lack of population

America & Mexico actually had enough children, and so continue to grow

Canada did not have enough children, and so is actually collapsing

and no, immigration is not even coming close to making up the difference

and Canada is not the land of ideas

creativity is practically banned by the nanny police state government in Canada now

ideas are a threat to the rule of the Canadian apparatchiks

[Dougie93]

7 hours ago, August1991 said:

 

As a Canadien, I have little patience for people like Brennan - let alone Obama. 

 

only Democrat party plantation aristocrats and their useful idiots have any time for Brennan and Obama

conservative America looks to men like Rand Paul or Ron DeSantis

Donald Trump is simply the Anti-Obama, a reaction to the total failure of the Washington elites

[Michael Hardner]

1 hour ago, Dougie93 said:

conservative America looks to men like Rand Paul or Ron DeSantis

IOW horrible opportunists.

[Dougie93]

7 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

IOW horrible opportunists.

with crisis comes opportunity

to crush the Democrat traitors to the Republic

yeehaw

Edited September 18, 2022 by Dougie93

[I am Groot]

15 hours ago, August1991 said:

Decades ago, on the cusp of freedom, I travelled in India and China. Heck, I got a Soviet transit visa in Beijing - and boarded the train with a guy from Boston. 

As a Canadien, I have little patience for people like Brennan - let alone Obama.  I met both types of Americans while travelling then. (Later, I reckoned the Obama should have given a far better speech when speaking about the relations ...  I digress....) 

Nowadays, China is richer. India is richer. Billions of people in India and China are better off.

======

Here's my two points:

1. In Canada, America, everyone is thinking that we will have too many people.

2. What about a world where there are fewer people? Fewer ideas? Less people to do stuff?

1. Almost all immigrants wind up in the biggest cities. They don't come here to colonize northern Ontario or the Yukon. They're not dragging their families out onto the arctic tundra or the mountains of Alberta. We can still have vast, empty areas while being horribly crowded where most of us live. 

2. Under Harper our population was already growing and would have continued to grow, with a forecasted 2100 population of 51 million. There was no need to increase immigration to 431,000 this year, and a scheduled 447,000 next year (with continued increases indefinitely. These enormous numbers mean more crowding, heavier pressure on our healthcare systems, increases in housing prices, more CO2 emissions, more overall pollution, less farmland, etc. It results in stagnating wages, and requires that we loosen our standards and accept a lower overall quality of immigrants in order to meet immigration targets.

As far as I can see the only positive to importing this mass of people is for corporate Canada to have bigger domestic markets, and for boomers to keep seeing their house prices rise. So this is largely good for the haves, and very bad for the have-nots. Including young people who see no hope of ever owning their own home as our standard of living declines.

Edited September 18, 2022 by I am Groot

[Moonlight Graham]

8 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

IOW horrible opportunists.

I like that GOP guy with the eye patch.

[Michael Hardner]

3 hours ago, I am Groot said:

As far as I can see the only positive to importing this mass of people is for corporate Canada to have bigger domestic markets, and for boomers to keep seeing their house prices rise. So this is largely good for the haves, and very bad for the have-nots. Including young people who see no hope of ever owning their own home as our standard of living declines.

I find it odd that after reciting some classic fallacies about immigration, you acknowledge that domestic economy would grow but state that only the corporation and boomer would profit.

Why wouldn't the home renovation guy, dog walker, or chef?

[I am Groot]

15 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

I find it odd that after reciting some classic fallacies about immigration,

The world 'fallacy" suggests a lie or mistake. I would not choose to write anything which was false. Please show me the error of what I've written so I know better in future.

15 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

you acknowledge that domestic economy would grow but state that only the corporation and boomer would profit.

Why wouldn't the home renovation guy, dog walker, or chef?

A larger economy is meaningless. Increasing our gross domestic product in tandem with an increasing population does not suggest any improvement in the wealth or living standards of those already here.

The home renovation guy, dog walker and chef will have more business and there will be more home renovation guys, dog walkers and chefs to compete with them. 

There will be more tax dollars collected and more requirement for tax dollars to be spent on health care and expanding infrastructure.

The only profit is for our protected corporations. The banks and telecom companies will have more customers but there will not be more banks or more telecom companies to compete with them.

There will be more demand for homes, especially detached homes, and thus their prices will rise to the benefit of the boomers who bought them when homes were affordable.

I paid $175,000 for my house. It's now mortgage free and worth just shy of a million dollars. Good on me. Meanwhile my son and daughter couldn't hope to afford their own place on their own, though they have decent jobs. They live in condos I've purchased and pay me considerably less than market rent. Lucky them for having a successful parent.

As for most of the others, they're shit out of luck.

Edited September 19, 2022 by I am Groot

[Michael Hardner]

48 minutes ago, I am Groot said:

1. The world 'fallacy" suggests a lie or mistake. I would not choose to write anything which was false. Please show me the error of what I've written so I know better in future.

2. A larger economy is meaningless. Increasing our gross domestic product in tandem with an increasing population does not suggest any improvement in the wealth or living standards of those already here.

3. The home renovation guy, dog walker and chef will have more business and there will be more home renovation guys, dog walkers and chefs to compete with them. 

4. The only profit is for our protected corporations. The banks and telecom companies will have more customers but there will not be more banks or more telecom companies to compete with them.

5. I paid $175,000 for my house. It's now mortgage free and worth just shy of a million dollars. Good on me. Meanwhile my son and daughter couldn't hope to afford their own place on their own, though they have decent jobs. They live in condos I've purchased and pay me considerably less than market rent. Lucky them for having a successful parent.

 

1. No no, not a lie.  I wouldn't accuse you of that as you have thoughtful posts.  

Some of these have been addressed on here on other threads but are not 100% correct as inevitable results of immigration.  

-pressure on our healthcare systems
-increases in housing prices,
-stagnating wages

2. Those are also separate issues.  The economic stagnation of the middle class has many causes.

3.  Seems like the fixed pie fallacy

4. Ok, interesting angle.  

5. Yes, again there are unknown factors at play here such as foreign investment, air bnb and an increased % of empty homes, money laundering etc.

[August1991]

On 9/18/2022 at 5:04 PM, I am Groot said:

1. Almost all immigrants wind up in the biggest cities. They don't come here to colonize northern Ontario or the Yukon. They're not dragging their families out onto the arctic tundra or the mountains of Alberta. We can still have vast, empty areas while being horribly crowded where most of us live.

In the past, that was not true.

Around 1900, Canada received its largest number of immigrants (by percentage and even raw numbers) and yet most lived outside cities. 

[August1991]

9 hours ago, I am Groot said:

....

A larger economy is meaningless. Increasing our gross domestic product in tandem with an increasing population does not suggest any improvement in the wealth or living standards of those already here.

....

This is closer to my OP.

People like Joe Biden and Justin Trudeau seem to think that a country with more people is good. Well, where do these people come from? What about a world where there is fewer people?

Current homeowners and real estate agents like more people moving in. But what about a world where the population is the same - or smaller?

-----

IMHO, the further west you go, the more crazy (risk loving) people are. Icelanders are the Albertans of Scandinavians.

Then again, maybe it's the fishing. Like Newfoundlanders, what a lottery to be gamed.

Edited September 20, 2022 by August1991

[Michael Hardner]

9 hours ago, August1991 said:

 But what about a world where the population is the same - or smaller?

-----

This is the world that awaits us, this century possibly.

Economists will be watching Japan to study what happens with a zero growth population.

[Nationalist]

The whole idea that Canada needs to import people to be sustainable, is nonsense IMO.

What Canada needs is a new lease on life and family. We need to be promoting the concept of family.

But in our "liberality" we've shat upon the concept of family. We've encouraged our kids to forsake starting a family, in lieu of careers. We've allowed our own housing markets to be artificially inflated to the point of unaffordability. We've allowed own moral base to be eroded in lieu of "inclusion" of a very small minority of deviants of all sorts.

We've failed our forefathers.

Canada has more than enough resources to be self-sustaining. All we need to do is use them.

Edited September 20, 2022 by Nationalist

[I am Groot]

15 hours ago, August1991 said:

In the past, that was not true.

In the past we were a rural, agrarian nation. 

We're not any more.

[I am Groot]

On 9/19/2022 at 1:00 PM, Michael Hardner said:

Some of these have been addressed on here on other threads but are not 100% correct as inevitable results of immigration.  

-pressure on our healthcare systems
-increases in housing prices,
-stagnating wages

I do not claim any particular expertise in economics, housing or healthcare. I do believe I'm reasonably intelligent, though, and read a lot, and try to think a lot. And I do not claim immigration is solely responsible for any of these issues. Usually, when something large fails, there are several factors, several things which went wrong together.

I have read a number of posts and comments regarding the number of elderly immigrants arriving here. A small city's worth every year, I have read. That would certainly put pressure on healthcare resources. All the people coming in as immigrants, foreign students, temporary foreign workers and the International Mobility Program bring in approximately 1.7 million people per year consisting of: Immigration (417k this year 440k next), international students (621k), TFW (100k) and IWP( 445k). I can't imagine how that demand is not resulting in higher prices as well as lower wages.

To that end. CIBC says wage growth is lagging here due to immigration. This commentary agrees.

And then there's this, and this which relates to the cost of housing. 

Again, not saying this is the only reason, but A reason, and one which no one is willing to address.

On 9/19/2022 at 1:00 PM, Michael Hardner said:

3.  Seems like the fixed pie fallacy

Disagree. I'm not saying things are fixed. I'm saying that if you increase the number of workers you increase the demand for services and the supply of that demand will rise to meet the demand.  So people aren't worse off (except for inflation) but nor are they better off. Except for corporations like Bell and Rogers and Telus and the banks because these are largely protected.

 

On 9/19/2022 at 1:00 PM, Michael Hardner said:

5. Yes, again there are unknown factors at play here such as foreign investment, air bnb and an increased % of empty homes, money laundering etc.

And the huge number of foreigners coming into this economy with its very slow, bureaucratic approach to approving new housing developments. Or anything, really. It takes longer to go through the process of getting approval than it does to build a new home. I do not see that changing, however, as all levels of government in Canada are committed to very high levels of bureaucracy and regulation.

Edited September 20, 2022 by I am Groot

[I am Groot]

9 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

This is the world that awaits us, this century possibly.

Economists will be watching Japan to study what happens with a zero growth population.

It's not something that is going to happen in Canada in our lifetimes. The population was going to rise to 51 million by the year 2100 under Harper's immigration numbers. That's now going to happen in 2040. So by 2100 our population will most likely be closer to 100 million.

[DogOnPorch]

Just now, I am Groot said:

So by 2100 our population will most likely be closer to 100 million.

 

The majority packed into the GTA.

?

 

[Michael Hardner]

3 hours ago, I am Groot said:

1. I do not claim any particular expertise in economics, housing or healthcare.

2. I have read a number of posts and comments regarding the number of elderly immigrants arriving here. A small city's worth every year, I have read. That would certainly put pressure on healthcare resources.

3. To that end. CIBC says wage growth is lagging here due to immigration. This commentary agrees.

4. Disagree. I'm not saying things are fixed. I'm saying that if you increase the number of workers you increase the demand for services and the supply of that demand will rise to meet the demand.

5. And the huge number of foreigners coming into this economy with its very slow, bureaucratic approach to approving new housing developments.

 

3 hours ago, I am Groot said:

6. It's not something that is going to happen in Canada in our lifetimes. The population was going to rise to 51 million by the year 2100 under Harper's immigration numbers. That's now going to happen in 2040. So by 2100 our population will most likely be closer to 100 million.

1. I used to believe such arguments and I have no specialized training in economics but I have been reading about it for a long time.    The fixed pie fallacy was an early 

2. All services need to be managed to handle growth.  

3. Whoa.  You (and I) thought the banks were pro-immigration.  That's something new.

4. Yes we talked about this above... more dog walkers, ie. more jobs... fewer people means fewer dogs and dog walkers become unemployed...

5. I think we talked about housing... there are a lot of factors there....  Japan's house prices are going up also despite zero growth.  Real estate is hot...

6. I don't think we're going to get anywhere with this... this is economic growth and economic orthodoxy says that that is a good thing.  

You have admitted you don't have deep economic training nor do I.  I know enough of the flawed criticisms of immigration though, but I can't defend "growth".  It's just orthodoxy.  And for the record I'm not really in favour of our current immigration levels either.
 

[I am Groot]

15 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

2. All services need to be managed to handle growth.  

Oh Canadian governments are very good at handling things. They devote enormous amounts of manpower and forests worth of paperwork to managing things. They just do it very, very slowly.

15 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

3. Whoa.  You (and I) thought the banks were pro-immigration.  That's something new.

I think you presumed the bank was complaining. I took it as being quite satisfied with the stagnant wages.

 

15 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

4. Yes we talked about this above... more dog walkers, ie. more jobs... fewer people means fewer dogs and dog walkers become unemployed...

I have no issue with dog-walkers becoming unemployed. In a society with anything like a labour shortage they will simply wind up doing something else. For the same reason, I do not care if Tim Hortons can't find enough workers. If they have to raise their prices due to wage rises then fewer people will go there, some of the restaurants will close and we will have an equilibrium. The people who lose their jobs will find employment elsewhere. This is the nature of capitalism.

15 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

5. I think we talked about housing... there are a lot of factors there....  Japan's house prices are going up also despite zero growth.  Real estate is hot...

Japan's house prices rise because the Japanese build very low quality houses and buildings. They're not intended to last They're intended to be replaced regularly. So with inflation, yes, the cost is rising.

 

15 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

6. I don't think we're going to get anywhere with this... this is economic growth and economic orthodoxy says that that is a good thing.  

GDP rises due solely to population increases are not 'better' for a country than no increase in either population or GDP.  It is GDP per capita that actually matters.

\https://betterdwelling.com/canadian-gdp-per-capita-is-still-down-may-indicate-drop-in-living-standards-stat-can/

15 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

You have admitted you don't have deep economic training nor do I.  I know enough of the flawed criticisms of immigration though, but I can't defend "growth".  It's just orthodoxy.  And for the record I'm not really in favour of our current immigration levels either.

Growth for its own sake brings nothing of value. Even the argument that it will bring a larger native market with the economic efficiencies that brings fades in importance given we already have the available US market through free trade.

[August1991]

On 9/18/2022 at 5:04 PM, I am Groot said:

1. Almost all immigrants wind up in the biggest cities.

....

Cities? Foreigners come to Canada as a way to go to America.

(An Australian reminded me of this: referring to net immigration stats.)

=====

Trump? Anyone with a house/land in a North American city loves foreigners. A larger population increases the value of the property.

But what happens in a world where there are fewer people?