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Covid exit strategy


myata

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1 hour ago, Aristides said:

Sure, as already mentioned, I accept commissions. Not looking for anything much, just reasonable compensation for real work comparable to paid for its absence or imitation.

And by the way, the number itself, without context is meaningless. What is 125, in length? Look it just went from 3 to 11!

What is the total ICU capacity in the province? What was the average occupation, before the pandemic? And what was the peak occupation in flu seasons?

When Joe from the street is clueless in some remote to him issue that's no problem. But what if professionals and experts' show clear signs of that in their direct area of responsibility? Should we, I mean broader society, be concerned and pay attention?

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31 minutes ago, myata said:

Sure, as already mentioned, I accept commissions. Not looking for anything much, just reasonable compensation for real work comparable to paid for its absence or imitation.

And by the way, the number itself, without context is meaningless. What is 125, in length? Look it just went from 3 to 11!

What is the total ICU capacity in the province? What was the average occupation, before the pandemic? And what was the peak occupation in flu seasons?

When Joe from the street is clueless in some remote to him issue that's no problem. But what if professionals and experts' show clear signs of that in their direct area of responsibility? Should we, I mean broader society, be concerned and pay attention?

You have the numbers, they went from low teens to over 90 in less than a month and a half. That is not 3 to 11. That is over 90 ICU beds that aren't available for heart attacks, traffic accidents, strokes, natural disasters or any other non Covid emergency. I guess you figure the province has more than 90 ICU beds it doesn't need. What if ICU cases continue to increase at the same rate as they have in the past couple of weeks? How many ICU beds can we tie up with Covid cases? What about the highly skilled personnel that are required to look after those patients. You don't just hire them off the street, to become a RN in Canada is a four year bachelor of science degree yet people don't seem to care that many are quitting because they are burnt out.

Edited by Aristides
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1 minute ago, Aristides said:

You have the numbers, they went from low teens to over 90 in less than a month and a half. 

Right. And it makes all the difference if the total capacity is 110 or 11,000 and whether the peak occupancy in a flu season was 30 or 300. But sure, so much easier shout aiii! it's coming! And of course, some of us are even paid for it.

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6 minutes ago, myata said:

Right. And it makes all the difference if the total capacity is 110 or 11,000 and whether the peak occupancy in a flu season was 30 or 300. But sure, so much easier shout aiii! it's coming! And of course, some of us are even paid for it.

When will it sink in that these Covid cases are in addition to all the other causes, not replacing them?

You have no clue what the capacity is but refuse to believe public health officials when they say the system is being stressed and workers are complaining of burn out.

Edited by Aristides
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22 minutes ago, Aristides said:

When will it sink in that these Covid cases are in addition to all the other causes, not replacing them?

You have no clue what the capacity is but refuse to believe public health officials when they say the system is being stressed and workers are complaining of burn out.

In reality it is actually replacing hospitalizations due to many of the respiratory causes, including flu and common cold, also a common cause of complications in elderly and immuno-compromised.

And why should we believe blindly, just on word anybody? How was this unconditional trust earned and when, if I'm allowed to ask? And what would be the problem with reporting it clearly, accurately and honestly, just like the description says and what is the money paid for by the public, not creative gimmicks with statistics?

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North American Covid data claiming knowledge of vaccinated versus unvaccinated is pretty close to worthless.

This one in the Epoch Times explains why:

Who’s Really Being Hospitalized?

But it all boils down to this:

Quote

“We don’t have accurate numbers,” insists Dr. James Neuenschwander, an expert on vaccine safety based in Ann Arbor, Michigan.

But what we do know, Neuenschwander says, is that the vaccines are not as effective as public health officials told us they would be. “This is a product that’s not doing what it’s supposed to do. It’s supposed to stop transmission of this virus and it’s not doing that.”

In the meantime what they're seeing across the water is stuff like this:

israel-confirmed-cases-1-600x454.jpg

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What percentage of the population will need to be fully vaccinated for ample protection?   70%, 80%, 90%, 95%?  What percentage of our ICU capacity dedicated to Covid is too much?  10, 20, 50?  How many daily Covid-related deaths on average are acceptable?  0, 3, 5, 50?   It’s on elected governments, not health officials, ultimately, to decide, because there are so many differences of opinion on what constitutes acceptable risk.   The truth is that Covid isn’t going away, not everyone who is eligible will get vaccinated, and some fully vaccinated people (mostly with fragile health) will die.  We can’t shut down or restrict social behaviour to achieve perfect health outcomes that are unachievable.  We have to set realistic targets that are achievable in the short term because people and businesses can’t handle continued restrictions.  We have to shift to personal responsibility and acceptable risk.  The health authorities support the lofty puritanical realm of perfect public health outcomes.  We need honest leaders who see the bigger picture and can articulate a balanced approach.  We’re essentially holding 90% of the population hostage to save 10% of the population from themselves.

 I actually think Ford is trying to find that balance.  Biden is puritanical.  Trudeau is  more on the puritanical end.  It’s dysfunctional.   Vaccine mandates and passports seem to be the cure-all, but we’re seeing that they can be too harsh and, interestingly, their imposition may not remove restrictions because the people who support them the most also support restrictions the most.  At some point soon we need to lift restrictions and accept the risks or we’ll never exit the pandemic.   Don’t forget that one way or another antibodies must spread throughout the population, either through vaccination or viral spread.  It’s about how we get there, how slow we want to go, how much death we want to accept, how much mental illness we want to accept, and how much we’re willing to let businesses suffer and public debt rise.   I believe we have to brave the risks, take personal responsibility, and remove mandatory restrictions as soon as possible.  

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35 minutes ago, Infidel Dog said:

North American Covid data claiming knowledge of vaccinated versus unvaccinated is pretty close to worthless.

This one in the Epoch Times explains why:

Who’s Really Being Hospitalized?

But it all boils down to this:

In the meantime what they're seeing across the water is stuff like this:

israel-confirmed-cases-1-600x454.jpg

If almost everyone is fully vaccinated then almost all cases will be among the vaccinated eventually because there are so few unvaccinated.  The question to ask is, what percentage of fully vaccinated are dying from Covid versus unvaccinated?   Another important question to ask once most of the population is vaccinated (as in Canada) is, what percentage of the population is dying from Covid without restrictions versus other illnesses such as flu?  If we’re close to flu levels with occasional spikes as immunity wanes and/or variants emerge, then that’s similar to the flu which can be addressed with annual boosters.  The population is basically maintaining immunity with areas of vulnerability.  That’s quite typical.  We can live normal lives with that.  

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1 hour ago, Aristides said:

 

Like what? Where are you going to get people from when every other health system is under the same kind of stress?

There’s a solution. Not just shrugs. 

Even the goddam Chinamen did better than us. Maybe our superstar celebrity politicians should spare a brain cell, ad some bucks.

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59 minutes ago, Aristides said:

 Your Israeli data is for cases, not hospitalizations.

Yet the data seem to indicate that vaccinated transmit almost as much as non vaccinated. Otherwise the incidence of cases in that group could be expected to be lower than in the non vaccinated one. That's a bit of tension with the story we're hearing here, but it's more in line with the patterns of cases what can be seen. Again, why is it so hard just to know what's going on? Isn't like a small army of experts etc just turn on any channel in this country, are paid generous and some can say outrageous compensations by the public just for that?

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5 hours ago, Accountability Now said:

I'm not saying you're lying. I'm sure they said it but I would like to see what they said exactly and what data they are using. 

I have been following the UK who has been going through the delta variant for much longer with many more cases and thus far 60% of deaths are among the double vaxxed. BC and the rest of Canada is just starting on this delta spike so time will tell. 

You might be able to find the detailed data via a search engine.  I don't know.  I am not an NDP supporter, but  I have no reason for disbelieving Dr. Henry.  She is not a politician;  she is working for the government as Chief medical officer for the province I believe (or some such title).  I think she is the most popular medical authority in Canada.  She will probably receive some hero's awards and Order of Canada when this is all over.

Edited by blackbird
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the government can't do shit about COVID

the problem is we have people who think it can and support draconian crackdowns on the basis of that delusion

this not only makes the problem worse, but it creates additional problems on top of it

actually helping is a far distant second to thinking they are helping, to these misinformed government worshipping sheeple

the road to hell is paved with good intentions

Edited by Yzermandius19
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And so it's here: vaccine passports went live in Quebec. For the background, vaccinations in Quebec, mostly voluntary till now, are at 86% of above 12 population. To that can be added up to 10% recovered from Covid (equivalent to fully vaccinated, including unreported cases) plus medical exceptions, with the remaining non vaccinated minority of only a few percent. This is not mandatory vaccinations as passport applies to "non-essential activities" at least for now, however some interpreted it as a coercion.

Questions:

1. Will the policy require the return to the full normal for those with the passport, as claimed and promised, or only to the previous quasi-normal, i.e. a moving reward?

2. What is the term and conditions of prolongation and mechanisms of independent, non-partisan oversight? Are there any?

3. How will the effectiveness of the policy be monitored and evaluated?

The danger for the society's freedoms related to p.3 is that any shortfalls of the policy such as increases in cases would be immediately and automatically blamed on non vaccinated, whether it can be substantiated or not by the evidence, leading into a spiral of tightening restrictions on the entire society. This could open the path, depending on the virus that nobody can predict at this time, all the way to indefinite in time and measures medically-justified authoritarianism.

And before we head on, by default and without much reflection into the funnel of self-escalating mandates and restrictions, can we spend a minute on the answer: what was wrong with the voluntary compliance in the first place? (as in the beginning)?

Why can't we spend that minute? Who or what is making us run, run, run somewhere, right where you're told, to constant and incessant drumming?

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15 hours ago, OftenWrong said:

There’s a solution. Not just shrugs. 

Even the goddam Chinamen did better than us. Maybe our superstar celebrity politicians should spare a brain cell, ad some bucks.

Bucks for what? Do you think more money will keep people from burning out? The Chinese put in restrictions most Canadians wouldn't stand for, let alone the "it's just another flu" crowd. 

 

They are your bucks, how much do you want to spend?

Edited by Aristides
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41 minutes ago, Aristides said:

The Chinese put in restrictions ...

Great, now we're getting to the point and why being shy about it? Another thing they did by the way is keeping the news of the dangerous epidemics from the world and their own population for months. And guess what, we can do something like that too! And they have concentration camps too, if by another name, by the way. And the question is now, what can't we and wouldn't do, from what Chinese did and put? Surprisingly, no?

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1 minute ago, myata said:

Great, now we're getting to the point and why being shy about it? Another thing they did by the way is keeping the news of the dangerous epidemics from the world and their own population for months. And guess what, we can do something like that too! And they have concentration camps too, if by another name, by the way. And the question is now, what can't we and wouldn't do, from what Chinese did and put? Surprisingly, no?

No, we can't do things like that and we can't put the army around cities and not let anyone in or out. So pointing at the Chinese as an example is useless.

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2 minutes ago, Aristides said:

No, we can't do things like that and we can't put the army around cities and not let anyone in or out.

And how would you know that though? After two or three cycles of mandatory boosting and not around cities but only non vaccinated holdouts aka scapegoats (in the absence of evidence)? What, cannot happen here? "War measures act"? Arbitrary internment of hostile aliens? Residential schools? I would be careful wishing on Chinese practices what if they could come true.

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6 minutes ago, myata said:

And how would you know that though? After two or three cycles of mandatory boosting and not around cities but only non vaccinated holdouts aka scapegoats (in the absence of evidence)? What, cannot happen here? "War measures act"? Arbitrary internment of hostile aliens? Residential schools? I would be careful wishing on Chinese practices what if they could come true.

The War Measures Act was replaced by the Emergencies Act in 1988 to bring it into compliance with the Charter of Rights.

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2 hours ago, Aristides said:

The War Measures Act was replaced by the Emergencies Act in 1988 to bring it into compliance with the Charter of Rights.

As seen right now around you? Rights that can be curbed for any "safety" pretext, without convincing evidence, due process, oversight and impartial arbiter?

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20 hours ago, blackbird said:

She is not a politician;  she is working for the government as Chief medical officer for the province I believe (or some such title).  I think she is the most popular medical authority in Canada.  She will probably receive some hero's awards and Order of Canada when this is all over.

I don't distrust her either but like all people, she has an agenda. Her agenda of course is to convince as many people as possible to get vaccinated for the good of their health. Nothing wrong with that but still I've seen other health authorities use interesting choice of word or stats to drive home their agenda when its misleading. For example, you see a lot of authorities say they are seeing more kids hospitalized when what they are referring to is the ratio and not the absolute number.  That's why I wanted to see what she said about the increase in 18-49 year old group. 

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