Western Society: Over and Out

[dialamah]

Neither the Evil Islamic Horde (EIH) nor Climate Change spells the end of society as we know it.   Peter Turchin, a Russian-American scientist who specializes in cultural evolution predicts the collapse of society within a decade.   

Quote

 

The professor has tracked 40 factors in society that hit some kind of turning point in the 1970s. They include such aspects as wealth inequality, stagnating well-being, growing political fragmentation and governmental dysfunction.

The key to society’s armageddon will be “elite overproduction” in which the number of rich grow larger while the majority of society grapples with a stagnant standard of living and poor fiscal health, he believes. 

 

NASA agrees, though their studies give us a little bit longer:

Quote

With rising population, depleting natural resources and stretching social divide, civilization could be facing collapse within the next few decades, according to a scientific study funded by NASA.  

 

Edited January 7, 2017 by dialamah
Typo

[Guest]

Yeah, I can see that.  I didn't read the article, but that we are all doomed is no surprise to me.

 

[DogOnPorch]

It will be like the Permian Die-Off...only human generated.

Edited January 7, 2017 by DogOnPorch

[Derek 2.0]

12 minutes ago, dialamah said:

a Russian-American scientist who specializes in cultural evolution predicts the collapse of society within a decade.

 

The end of the World prediction market has been around for sometime, with that said, this one could have merit. Combine this prediction with the Federal governments recent economic forecast out to the middle of the century (or any other countries) and it does look bleak for the next generation. 

[dialamah]

17 minutes ago, Derek 2.0 said:

 

The end of the World prediction market has been around for sometime, with that said, this one could have merit. Combine this prediction with the Federal governments recent economic forecast out to the middle of the century (or any other countries) and it does look bleak for the next generation. 

Yup, a religious group claiming God's revenge on evildoers is a little less believable than a scientist examining history and noting repeated patterns.   I know history repeats itself, but I kinda thought this repeat of an empire's decline would happen well after I was dead; it'll be interesting to see if I've been wrong about that.   

[eyeball]

When the waterhole gets small the animals will get meaner. Whatever else is to blame it'll probably be the right-wing's fault for making our species transit through The Bottleneck even more unpleasant.

That said, I still think the meek will inherit the Earth.

[Michael Hardner]

1 minute ago, eyeball said:

When the waterhole gets small the animals will get meaner. 

Will get ?  So the waterhole hasn't shrunk yet.  

[eyeball]

It's a process. We haven't seen anything yet.

[Michael Hardner]

5 minutes ago, eyeball said:

It's a process. We haven't seen anything yet.

We have seen western concepts and prosperity spreading across the world, though.  Freedom of expression and rights as an ideal, democratic government too.  Middle class life.  But we should always think and talk about it.

[Guest]

16 minutes ago, eyeball said:

When the waterhole gets small the animals will get meaner. Whatever else is to blame it'll probably be the right-wing's fault for making our species transit through The Bottleneck even more unpleasant.

That said, I still think the meek will inherit the Earth.

Well, that's nice. I'm glad they're getting something, 'cause they have a hell of a time.

Edited January 7, 2017 by bcsapper

[Derek 2.0]

16 minutes ago, dialamah said:

Yup, a religious group claiming God's revenge on evildoers is a little less believable than a scientist examining history and noting repeated patterns.   I know history repeats itself, but I kinda thought this repeat of an empire's decline would happen well after I was dead; it'll be interesting to see if I've been wrong about that.   

Its not just previous religious groups predicting the end is nigh, but established scientists worried about a nuclear World War III........today the Doomsday clock is closer to midnight then what its been through most of the Cold War.

 

 

The thing about it, with our global economy, remove a couple of cards and the entire thing will collapse.........It could very well collapse from within, but in my opinion, a third World War would be the far more likely outcome. Of course said war could very well be caused by the very economic woes this author is suggesting, without a doubt, the aftermath of a third world war would change the economic landscape of the planet for generations.

 

As member Eyeball has said countless times, the animals are circling the dwindling waterhole....... 

[Derek 2.0]

19 minutes ago, eyeball said:

When the waterhole gets small the animals will get meaner. Whatever else is to blame it'll probably be the right-wing's fault for making our species transit through The Bottleneck even more unpleasant.

That said, I still think the meek will inherit the Earth.

 

Hah, didn't see your post before I replied to the one above.......the waterhole is very apt.

[Derek 2.0]

11 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

We have seen western concepts and prosperity spreading across the world, though.  Freedom of expression and rights as an ideal, democratic government too.  Middle class life.  But we should always think and talk about it.

 

Western concepts and prosperity have led many in the West to feel left out........"Prosperity" has become a shrinking waterhole, a zero sum game......look no further then a factory worker in the West that had lost his job to the third world.............Western concepts have now resulted in the rise of Nationalism around the globe, a modern term that is clearly a revision of tribalism........differing tribes circling the same waterhole will lead to bloody conflict.

[Michael Hardner]

6 minutes ago, Derek 2.0 said:

Western concepts and prosperity have led many in the West to feel left out........"Prosperity" has become a shrinking waterhole, a zero sum game......look no further then a factory worker in the West that had lost his job to the third world.............Western concepts have now resulted in the rise of Nationalism around the globe, a modern term that is clearly a revision of tribalism........differing tribes circling the same waterhole will lead to bloody conflict.

it is not a zero sum game.  The overall economy will continue to improve and the factory worker is collateral damage.  He/she has to adapt or die.  That's the essence of our economy - you sell your skills on the market.  For every factory job lost, another one is added in another part of the country.

I don't see differing tribes warring more than in the past, I see them trading more.

[Derek 2.0]

Just now, Michael Hardner said:

The overall economy will continue to improve and the factory worker is collateral damage.  He/she has to adapt or die.

 

Adapt or die.........or vote in their own Donald J Trump.

1 minute ago, Michael Hardner said:

That's the essence of our economy - you sell your skills on the market.  For every factory job lost, another one is added in another part of the country.

 

And to what will happen when even more people in the West find their skills worthless, be it due to outsourcing or the continued advancements in A.I./robotics? This generation in the West will be the first worse off economically then the ones it preceded.........That will result in more Trumps, resulting in more scapegoats for their problems.

 

5 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

I don't see differing tribes warring more than in the past, I see them trading more.

 

Perhaps first world tribes, but the World is never without conflict..........the change will be when more and more tribes are forced to "adapt or die", and they elect to blame someone else through the nationalistic words or a perceived strongman (or women). Eventually there will be too many strongmen blaming each other and that will result in yet another global conflict.

The waterhole is only so big.

 

Hitler didn't come to power so much as through force, but due to Germans needing a wheelbarrow full of money to buy a loaf of bread........Trump has come to power by the votes of unemployed and underemployed rust belt workers that refuse to "adapt or die", but pine for the return of "greatness" that the feel they once knew........both men, like others before and after them, we able to sell a return of greatness to a public that didn't want to "adapt or die".  

 

[dialamah]

34 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

it is not a zero sum game.  The overall economy will continue to improve and the factory worker is collateral damage.  He/she has to adapt or die.  That's the essence of our economy - you sell your skills on the market.  For every factory job lost, another one is added in another part of the country.

I don't see differing tribes warring more than in the past, I see them trading more.

It could be a zero-sum game if currently trading nations decide to stop trading and become more nationalistic?   Isn't that in part what Brexit and Trump are about?   

It's true we've been through an unprecedented period of peace; on the other hand, didn't the Pax Romana last for a couple of hundred years?

Edited January 7, 2017 by dialamah

[Michael Hardner]

19 minutes ago, Derek 2.0 said:

1) And to what will happen when even more people in the West find their skills worthless, be it due to outsourcing or the continued advancements in A.I./robotics? This generation in the West will be the first worse off economically then the ones it preceded.........That will result in more Trumps, resulting in more scapegoats for their problems.

2) Perhaps first world tribes, but the World is never without conflict..........the change will be when more and more tribes are forced to "adapt or die", and they elect to blame someone else through the nationalistic words or a perceived strongman (or women). Eventually there will be too many strongmen blaming each other and that will result in yet another global conflict.

3) The waterhole is only so big.

4)Hitler didn't come to power so much as through force, but due to Germans needing a wheelbarrow full of money to buy a loaf of bread........Trump has come to power by the votes of unemployed and underemployed rust belt workers that refuse to "adapt or die", but pine for the return of "greatness" that the feel they once knew........both men, like others before and after them, we able to sell a return of greatness to a public that didn't want to "adapt or die".  

 

1) What will happen ?  Economic theory says that people will find other work of value to do.  Policy changes will happen, too.  Shorter work weeks, and other changes will happen.  Worse off economically is not solely a function of labour reduction, but how wealth is distributed.

2) The "adapt or die" maxim is less often a wedge to pit tribes against each other as it is economic classes, and classes of labour.

3) No - the waterhole is the economy and it gets bigger.  

4) The odd thing is that the people you mentioned have chosen a class of people who have benefited greatly from the economic changes of the last generation at their expense.  The greatness they pine for is from a bygone era.  It seems like the same conditions that prompted their grandparents to vote for hard left policies in the mid 20th century.

 

[Hal 9000]

I don't think this is the first person to predict an overpopulation crisis, However it should be noted that there are few (if any) western countries that have a birth ratio that can even sustain their country or race, whereas the muslims are all at birth rates that can easily double or triple their populations in a generation.

[dialamah]

6 minutes ago, Hal 9000 said:

I don't think this is the first person to predict an overpopulation crisis, 

It's not just an overpopulation crisis; it's also about the way in which wealth is distributed.   It's a huge watering hole but a very few individuals have kept most of the water for themselves; the majority left with little water are contemplating just how strong the 'guards' are around that huge expanse of water.

9 minutes ago, Hal 9000 said:

 However it should be noted that there are few (if any) western countries that have a birth ratio that can even sustain their country or race, 

True, which is why immigration is considered important by politicians, if not by citizens.

 

10 minutes ago, Hal 9000 said:

 whereas the muslims are all at birth rates that can easily double or triple their populations in a generation.

Birth rates around the world seem more correlated to standard of living than religion.   An overall higher standard of living = lower birth rate; thus, Saudi Arabia and Israel have almost identical birth rates, as do Uganda and Niger.   

[Derek 2.0]

31 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

1) What will happen ?  Economic theory says that people will find other work of value to do.  Policy changes will happen, too.  Shorter work weeks, and other changes will happen.  Worse off economically is not solely a function of labour reduction, but how wealth is distributed.

 

Economic theorist John Maynard Keynes gave his answer long ago:  

Quote

“In the long run we are all dead”

 

I think we're at the end of the beginning of the end of our collective system of what is the global economy.......its harder to distribute the "wealth" of a Mexican autoworker making $5 an hour to a out of work autoworker in Ontario or Michigan.

 

37 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

2) The "adapt or die" maxim is less often a wedge to pit tribes against each other as it is economic classes, and classes of labour.

 

In a historic sense sure, but apply it to a dwindling middle class voter in North America versus a worker in China..........Trump may be able to get the North American worker his job back in some sense, but then that Chinese worker will pine for someone to "Make China Great Again"..........

 

40 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

3) No - the waterhole is the economy and it gets bigger.

 

The modern global economy is a myth reliant upon faith based belief and confidence........tell the out of work oil worker in Alberta or auto worker in Michigan that their economy is getting bigger.

 

44 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

4) The odd thing is that the people you mentioned have chosen a class of people who have benefited greatly from the economic changes of the last generation at their expense.  The greatness they pine for is from a bygone era.  It seems like the same conditions that prompted their grandparents to vote for hard left policies in the mid 20th century.

 

Ahh but its not a bygone era if a Trump, a Putin, a Farage, etc promise to make it "Great Again".......    

 

[Michael Hardner]

3 minutes ago, Derek 2.0 said:

1) I think we're at the end of the beginning of the end of our collective system of what is the global economy.......its harder to distribute the "wealth" of a Mexican autoworker making $5 an hour to a out of work autoworker in Ontario or Michigan.

2) In a historic sense sure, but apply it to a dwindling middle class voter in North America versus a worker in China..........Trump may be able to get the North American worker his job back in some sense, but then that Chinese worker will pine for someone to "Make China Great Again"..........

3) The modern global economy is a myth reliant upon faith based belief and confidence........tell the out of work oil worker in Alberta or auto worker in Michigan that their economy is getting bigger.

4) Ahh but its not a bygone era if a Trump, a Putin, a Farage, etc promise to make it "Great Again".......    

 

1) Are you saying that Canada has no comparative advantage with Mexico ?  I don't think it works that way.

2) Trump won't be able to bring America back with isolationism.

3)4) You're mixing up the big picture with the point of view of someone who has lost out in marketing their skills.  Is it really a myth or do these losers in the economic game think is is ?

[Derek 2.0]

5 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

1) Are you saying that Canada has no comparative advantage with Mexico ?  I don't think it works that way.

 

 

There are economic levers and dials between every country, but at best, they will delay the eventual collapse of the house of cards.

 

7 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

2) Trump won't be able to bring America back with isolationism.

 

 

I don't think Trump (or anyone) can "bring America back" (or any country)......he may grant it a reprieve with varying levels of protectionism, that in turn will result in more countries looking to their own leaders to make things "Great Again".......there lies the end game, circling the watering hole.

 

10 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

3)4) You're mixing up the big picture with the point of view of someone who has lost out in marketing their skills.  Is it really a myth or do these losers in the economic game think is is ?

 

The "Big picture" resulted in Trump.....Brexit....Putin......we'll see the upcoming French and German results.

 

Economic "winners" can become "losers" in minutes due to loss of faith in our economic myth..........said "winners" are but only upon the top of the house of cards.

[Michael Hardner]

3 minutes ago, Derek 2.0 said:

 

1) There are economic levers and dials between every country, but at best, they will delay the eventual collapse of the house of cards.

2) I don't think Trump (or anyone) can "bring America back" (or any country)......he may grant it a reprieve with varying levels of protectionism, that in turn will result in more countries looking to their own leaders to make things "Great Again".......there lies the end game, circling the watering hole.

3) The "Big picture" resulted in Trump.....Brexit....Putin......we'll see the upcoming French and German results.

4) Economic "winners" can become "losers" in minutes due to loss of faith in our economic myth..........said "winners" are but only upon the top of the house of cards.

1) Why ?  Why will global economic progress just end after it has provided centuries of improved living, reduced poverty ?

2)3) These things have happened in the past, ie. protectionism.  It doesn't end economic progress.

4) But you didn't answer my question - why is it a myth ?  Because these "losers" say so ?  The house of cards has a lot of people in the middle too.  They tend to live in cities.

[Derek 2.0]

3 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

1) Why ?  Why will global economic progress just end after it has provided centuries of improved living, reduced poverty ?

 

 

Because its finite........a "winner" in the third world factory is not a sense of relief for the out of work factory worker in the West.

 

5 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

2)3) These things have happened in the past, ie. protectionism.  It doesn't end economic progress.

 

It curbs it, and contributed to the American entrance of the Second World War.

 

6 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

4) But you didn't answer my question - why is it a myth ?  Because these "losers" say so ?  The house of cards has a lot of people in the middle too.  They tend to live in cities.

 

Its a myth because its reliant upon all participants to have faith in it........loose the faith, there goes the economy. The house of cards and those within the middle, living in said cities, are in said house atop a bubble ready to burst...... 

[Michael Hardner]

6 minutes ago, Derek 2.0 said:

 

1) Because its finite........a "winner" in the third world factory is not a sense of relief for the out of work factory worker in the West.

2) It curbs it, and contributed to the American entrance of the Second World War.

3) Its a myth because its reliant upon all participants to have faith in it........loose the faith, there goes the economy. The house of cards and those within the middle, living in said cities, are in said house atop a bubble ready to burst...... 

1) It's not finite.  Economic progress continues and I don't know how it's limited unless you're talking about the resources of the earth, which is a valid point but not what we're discussing.  The collapsing house of cards you mentioned still doesn't have a cause from what I can see.  The unemployed factory worker doesn't collapse the house, you haven't shown that.

2) Still doesn't stop economic progress.  If countries isolate themselves they can try that if they like.

3) Economics doesn't require all participants to have faith in it, that's preposterous.  If a majority of those participating don't have faith then you get a Trump, maybe, but your doomsdayism doesn't seem to have any reason that you have expressed.

---

In summary:

Economic growth hasn't been finite and has progressed.

People unhappy with their lot in the economy will express their dissatisfaction but it won't stop progress and it won't turn back the clock on global trade or automation.

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You seem to just be saying "people have lost jobs due to globalization/automation and they're unhappy about that".  On that we can agree.