Bonam Posted December 22, 2016 Report Share Posted December 22, 2016 3 minutes ago, kactus said: With the US vowing to increase Their nuclear arsenal is the arms race about to resume? It's the nuclear arms race all over again... https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-nukes-nuclear-weapons2016-12 Donal Trump's tweet is confusing to say the least. Well, US nuclear weapons and delivery systems were state of the art in the 1980s. But they haven't improved much since then. Doomsday systems like MIRVs were essentially un-counterable in the 80s, but today the US nuclear arsenal would possibly be insufficient to saturate concentrated ABM defenses. Any strategic tension between the US, Europe, Russia, and China will inevitably lead to the technological advancements of the last 40 years being incorporated into strategic nuclear arsenals and delivery systems. Likely the first casualty of renewed tensions would be the Outer Space Treaty, which the US and the USSR essentially agreed to to not bankrupt themselves. But today, launches are much cheaper and placing weapons in orbit reduces their delivery time to targets from 30-60 minutes to just 2-5 minutes and eliminates the need for forward nuclear bases in countries near the target. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bush_cheney2004 Posted December 22, 2016 Report Share Posted December 22, 2016 48 minutes ago, Smallc said: A country with an economy about that size of Canada's is going to have a rough time of going against the rest of the Western World. Putin is not concerned about the entire western world...only those nations with the means and will to react with military force, not flaccid sanctions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kactus Posted December 22, 2016 Report Share Posted December 22, 2016 I am wondering if this is war of words from Trump directed to China. Between the two country the US has a deficit in export to China. Flexing muscles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bush_cheney2004 Posted December 22, 2016 Report Share Posted December 22, 2016 (edited) 37 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said: Ha. You are correct. But we're now in strange territory as Trump tweet/escalated today. Not sure what to think... Start with some facts...like the many billions that the U.S. has spent and will spend modernizing strategic and tactical nuclear weapons warheads and delivery systems long before Trump ever ran for office. Start with the layered ballistic missile defense system that the U.S. and willing allies have invested in (not Canada, of course). Putin understands these things better that most Chicken Littles in the "western world". Edited December 22, 2016 by bush_cheney2004 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bush_cheney2004 Posted December 22, 2016 Report Share Posted December 22, 2016 24 minutes ago, kactus said: With the US vowing to increase their nuclear arsenal is the arms race about to resume? It's the nuclear arms race all over again... https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-nukes-nuclear-weapons2016-12 Donald Trump's tweet is confusing to say the least. On one hand he wants to improve relations with Putin and on the other hand remains unpredictable as usual. Quite scary times for the world with a new president who will be sworn to office soon and his trigger happy finger on that nuclear button... This is exactly what U.S. policy has been and should be for Putin and any other rival. Too bad if the "world" is scared. If you want peace...prepare for war. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bush_cheney2004 Posted December 22, 2016 Report Share Posted December 22, 2016 6 minutes ago, kactus said: I am wondering if this is war of words from Trump directed to China. Between the two country the US has a deficit in export to China. Flexing muscles. Mods said we can only talk about Putin....sorry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonlight Graham Posted December 23, 2016 Report Share Posted December 23, 2016 5 hours ago, The_Squid said: They aren't going to invade USA.... just Latvia... Estonia... etc, etc. Those countries are a part of NATO. Ukraine wasn't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wilber Posted December 23, 2016 Report Share Posted December 23, 2016 3 hours ago, Bonam said: Troops that can be hastily pulled back. It's unlikely Putin would deliberately prevent their departure or target them. He wants to enhance his own power and Russia's power, not engage in an apocalyptic war. Except for possibly Gorbachev and Yeltsin, Russian expansionism has been the doctrine of every Russian ruler since Peter the Great, if not before. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyeball Posted December 23, 2016 Report Share Posted December 23, 2016 4 hours ago, Smallc said: A country with an economy about that size of Canada's is going to have a rough time of going against the rest of the Western World. OTOH a country nearly as big as Canada's that's also armed with lots of nukes could easily drag the rest of Western World with it into oblivion. Heck, I bet Al-Qaeda will probably manage to pull that off with just a handful. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bonam Posted December 23, 2016 Report Share Posted December 23, 2016 51 minutes ago, Wilber said: Except for possibly Gorbachev and Yeltsin, Russian expansionism has been the doctrine of every Russian ruler since Peter the Great, if not before. Well, expansionism has generally been the doctrine of almost every ruler of every country throughout all of human history up until WWII. It's only since then that the international regime of essentially fixed borders has been a thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wilber Posted December 23, 2016 Report Share Posted December 23, 2016 1 minute ago, Bonam said: Well, expansionism has generally been the doctrine of almost every ruler of every country throughout all of human history up until WWII. It's only since then that the international regime of essentially fixed borders has been a thing. But you don't see Britain, France, Germany, Austria and Japan wanting their empires back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bonam Posted December 23, 2016 Report Share Posted December 23, 2016 1 minute ago, Wilber said: But you don't see Britain, France, Germany, Austria and Japan wanting their empires back. And? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wilber Posted December 23, 2016 Report Share Posted December 23, 2016 3 minutes ago, Bonam said: And? Russia does. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bonam Posted December 23, 2016 Report Share Posted December 23, 2016 1 minute ago, Wilber said: Russia does. Yep. That's pretty much what I said too. I just think Putin is pretty discerning when it comes to what places he thinks he can get away with trying to restore his empire in and which places would have too high a risk of serious confrontation with the West. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omni Posted December 23, 2016 Report Share Posted December 23, 2016 I wonder when he's going to start putting nukes back into Crimea. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Squid Posted December 23, 2016 Report Share Posted December 23, 2016 2 hours ago, Moonlight Graham said: Those countries are a part of NATO. Ukraine wasn't. Is Canada willing to go to war for Latvia? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smallc Posted December 23, 2016 Report Share Posted December 23, 2016 If the West is not willing to confront Russia over Lativa, than we're doomed. I don't think we'll nuke them over Latvia. That line is somewhere between Berlin and Frankfurt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek 2.0 Posted December 23, 2016 Report Share Posted December 23, 2016 8 hours ago, Smallc said: Possibly, if it went there. A conventional war would be very bad for Russia. MAD is but simply an escalation........a conventional war ~30 years ago in Europe, at best, would have been a stalemate. With the level of NATO forces currently in Europe, despite a generation+ lead in terms of technology, a war with Russia over the Baltic states would be very bad for said States and NATO........several lightly armed mixed NATO brigades, at best, would be a speed bump for the several Russian mechanized armies already in theater......30 years ago NATO had far greater forces in Europe, in addition enough prepositioned equipment for several additional armored divisions (more with National Guard units being activated) to be flown over within 72 hours (see REFORGER), and most important of all, enough POL and munitions for 30+ days of hostilities. If NATO had the political gumption to attempt to stop a Russian invasion of the Baltic (and Eastern Europe), their only choice (with the current level of forces) would be tactical nukes, including strikes inside Russia against reserves and supplies supporting the invasion....... the first side to flinch with nukes then opens up Pandora's box. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wilber Posted December 23, 2016 Report Share Posted December 23, 2016 1 hour ago, Bonam said: Yep. That's pretty much what I said too. I just think Putin is pretty discerning when it comes to what places he thinks he can get away with trying to restore his empire in and which places would have too high a risk of serious confrontation with the West. He will keep pushing until someone pushes back hard enough. Why not? Rhineland, Austria, Sudetenland, Czechoslovakia, before Poland became enough. Will we see the same kind of appeasement as we did between 1936 and 1939? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek 2.0 Posted December 23, 2016 Report Share Posted December 23, 2016 6 hours ago, bush_cheney2004 said: Putin is not concerned about the entire western world...only those nations with the means and will to react with military force, not flaccid sanctions. Exactly, in my opinion, he's far more concerned with the Chinese. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omni Posted December 23, 2016 Report Share Posted December 23, 2016 1 minute ago, Derek 2.0 said: Exactly, in my opinion, he's far more concerned with the Chinese. Of course he is now he has Trump in his pocket. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek 2.0 Posted December 23, 2016 Report Share Posted December 23, 2016 13 minutes ago, Wilber said: Will we see the same kind of appeasement as we did between 1936 and 1939? Why not? The West/NATO didn't go to war with them over Eastern Europe in the 50s or 60s. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek 2.0 Posted December 23, 2016 Report Share Posted December 23, 2016 Just now, Omni said: Of course he is now he has Trump in his pocket. Trump has nothing to do with it.......the current state of NATO has been decades in the making and countless governments, of its member states, are to blame. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omni Posted December 23, 2016 Report Share Posted December 23, 2016 1 minute ago, Derek 2.0 said: Trump has nothing to do with it.......the current state of NATO has been decades in the making and countless governments, of its member states, are to blame. Trump shouldn't have pissed off China then. And he hasn't even got into office yet. Just wait. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek 2.0 Posted December 23, 2016 Report Share Posted December 23, 2016 1 hour ago, The_Squid said: Is Canada willing to go to war for Latvia? Of course not, nor would any of the far more powerful members of NATO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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