North America Recession Coming?

Topaz · May 18, 2016

The following article that North America may be going into another recession like in 2008 and one sign is some warehouse are filling up and goods not being sold and IF the US is hit with another recession Canada will feel the effects also. So, do u think NA could go into another recession and are u prepared? http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/05/14/recession-odds-us-canada_n_9972474.html?utm_hp_ref=canada-business&ir=Canada+Business

msj · May 18, 2016

Google "zerohedge recession call" and look back for about 10 pages or so.

Zerohedge is a group of 2/3 people who are permabears.

Everything in the world is going to go down to zero (or worse!) according to these guys.

Every once in a while they get it right because something bad does happen.

The rest of the time, however, they are dead wrong.

kimmy · May 18, 2016

Every week for the past 5 years I have been seeing predictions from some guy or another that a new recession is about to hit that will make 2008 look minor by comparison. Gerald Celente is one of the guys who keeps saying this, there are numerous others whose names I can't remember. Who are these guys, and what are they selling? How do they profit by issuing these doomsday predictions and continuing to be wrong all the time?

-k

PIK · May 18, 2016

Say something long enough ,it will eventually happen.

Big Guy · May 18, 2016

Say something long enough ,it will eventually happen.

The Leafs will win the cup, the Leafs will win the cup, the Leafs will win the cup, the Leafs ...

dre · May 20, 2016

In Canada at least there are a number of troubling macroeconomic conditions that make some kind of recession over the next couple of years possible or even likely. Things like extremely high household debt levels, a huge housing bubble, and low oil prices.

Also Canadians have an extremely pessimistic outlook on the economy... the worst in more than 20 years...

To those that don't believe a recession is coming, I would ask this.... If near zero interest rates, and massive economic easing through the credit system, and ever increasing amounts of tax payer backed mortgages is sustainable economic policy that does not cause adverse effects, then why not do it on a permanent basis? Interest free money for all! The answer: You can only do this for so long before things fall apart on you.

msj · May 20, 2016

It is not that there will not be a day of reckoning (especially for Canada), it is that the economy can keep going for much longer than anyone's imagination to think otherwise.

It certainly feels like we have had low interest rates on a permanent basis.

Canada has lots of problems - Fort Mac in particular, oil/commodity prices in general, and huge household debt used to buy overpriced and unproductive assets.

The US is a different situation although I have heard (but not yet seen) that the yield curve is inverting so that would be sign of a coming recession within the next 12 - 18 months. But would rather wait and see what happens in June as that is probably the last chance to raise interest rates prior to the election.

Yes, a recession will happen one day.

But that's not very helpful is it?

msj · May 22, 2016

The US is a different situation although I have heard (but not yet seen) that the yield curve is inverting so that would be sign of a coming recession within the next 12 - 18 months.

Well, of course I haven't seen it yet because it hasn't inverted yet - duh.

Should know better than to give any credence to seeing the offhand tweet or overhearing some clip from some permabear doomer and then let it have any room in my brain.

taxme · May 22, 2016

Every week for the past 5 years I have been seeing predictions from some guy or another that a new recession is about to hit that will make 2008 look minor by comparison. Gerald Celente is one of the guys who keeps saying this, there are numerous others whose names I can't remember. Who are these guys, and what are they selling? How do they profit by issuing these doomsday predictions and continuing to be wrong all the time?

-k

Exactly. I have been listening to this dooms day nonsense for decades now. Someone has to be making money off this bull, and Gerald Celente is one of them. There are many out there who keep predicting but nothing ever happens. They say just join my club and receive my newsletters for a slight sign up fee, and I will keep you up to date on what is going to happen soon. It's all about the money, and these doomsayers make lots of money from those who listen and believe their nonsense. Like my father-in-law use to say "it's all yankee bull---t". I am beginning to believe that he was right.

msj · May 23, 2016

No doubt the makers of the boom doom and gloom reports make money off their crap.

I can't remember the name of the newsletter now, but I recall someone pointing out that one newsletter had subscribers in the many thousands and it had been talking about inflation being under reported for years and years and then calling for hyperinflation thanks to all the QE, which of course was also being hidden.

Its annual price?

Hadn't changed in over 10 years.

bush_cheney2004 · May 23, 2016

Canada's economy was still in recession at this time last year (2015)...so it's not all "crap".

msj · May 23, 2016

Yes, how helpful of you to remind us of the "technical recession" Canada experienced.

Of course, if the NDP or Liberals were in power it would be Canada's GREAT RECESSION but since the CPC were in power it was "technical" and barely a recession.

To be fair, it was, by measurement of employment, hours worked, GDP, a technical recession.

But now that the Liberals are in power I suppose it is better to play it up as more than that to set it up as the scary prologue as conservatives everywhere continue to hope for an outright recession as if the ones during GW Bush's time has had any impact on his legacy, at least in the opinion of those same hypocritical conservatives.....

Topaz · May 23, 2016

I listen to both the US and Canadian business channels on TV and the US is watching China and what their economy is going and perhaps China can affect the US outlook.

msj · May 23, 2016

There's your problem.

Never listen to 24/7 business or news channels.

They have too much time to fill so they have low standards as to who to have on to fill that time.

You are being misinformed by idiots with opinions based on nothing that signify nothing.

Get thee to Calcuted Risk's site at once and learn about the importance of using data to inform rather than cherry picking data to backup one's opinions: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com

msj · May 23, 2016

watching China and what their economy is going and perhaps China can affect the US outlook.

What effect did Japan, at one time the world's second largest economy, have on the US economy for the past 25 years?

Oh, and keep in mind that Japan has been in perpetual recession during this time.

bush_cheney2004 · May 23, 2016

Get thee to Calcuted Risk's site at once and learn about the importance of using data to inform rather than cherry picking data to backup one's opinions: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com

Great....dedicate more time to an American blogger with a cult-like following that focuses on the U.S. economy, not Canada or Mexico.

Business media knows nothing and other economies don't matter ?

msj · May 23, 2016

Business media knows nothing and other economies don't matter ?

Pretty much.

The correlation between Canada and the US is large - other than a housing crash in Canada which would be clearly domestic related (and even politically caused thanks to years of stupid policy), Canada goes up and down with the US.

The noise of oil prices can amplify or dampen things of course.

As for business media - yes, they don't matter.

Quality over quantity.

Sort of like you at 42,000 posts and me at 4,900.

bush_cheney2004 · May 23, 2016

Pretty much.

The correlation between Canada and the US is large - other than a housing crash in Canada which would be clearly domestic related (and even politically caused thanks to years of stupid policy), Canada goes up and down with the US.

There's more to the North American economy than just Canada and the USA. Commodity prices are set globally....central banks impact currency valuations...M&As impact multinational corps. I get real time, "actionable" information from financial media that is far more useful than a prescient American blogger. Currently, Bloomberg is my fave....pointed me to the train wreck that is Valeant for a nice payday.

The noise of oil prices can amplify or dampen things of course.

Ya think ? Another brilliant thought from Calculated Risk ? Bloomberg provides risk based projections as well, for Europe, Americas, and Asia.

As for business media - yes, they don't matter.

Quality over quantity.

Sort of like you at 42,000 posts and me at 4,900.

OK...but I'm comfortably retired already ...you're not.

msj · May 24, 2016

There's more to the North American economy than just Canada and the USA. Commodity prices are set globally....central banks impact currency valuations...M&As impact multinational corps. I get real time, "actionable" information from financial media that is far more useful than a prescient American blogger. Currently, Bloomberg is my fave....pointed me to the train wreck that is Valeant for a nice payday.

I like Bloomberg too.

Ya think ? Another brilliant thought from Calculated Risk ? Bloomberg provides risk based projections as well, for Europe, Americas, and Asia.

Don't need CRisk nor any macroeconomics stuff to make investment decisions so don't see your point here.

OK...but I'm comfortably retired already ...you're not.

Yes your portfolio is bigger than mine.

But I'm decades younger than you so I'm okay with that.

taxme · May 24, 2016

If one really wants to know what is really going on and what is going to happen in the near future, then go talk to one of those elite cabal banksters on Wall St. They know and set the money markets and all in their favor. We peons will never really know anything as to how the money game is played.

If one really wants to try and get a handle on how the money/markets work then go to website RT.com and go listen to The Keiser Report. Max Keiser and his guests pretty much sum it all up. The banksters pretty much control the money/market game. They are the owners and coaches of that team, and we are just the players.

Argus · May 26, 2016

If one really wants to know what is really going on and what is going to happen in the near future, then go talk to one of those elite cabal banksters on Wall St. They know and set the money markets and all in their favor. We peons will never really know anything as to how the money game is played.

If one really wants to try and get a handle on how the money/markets work then go to website RT.com and go listen to The Keiser Report. Max Keiser and his guests pretty much sum it all up. The banksters pretty much control the money/market game. They are the owners and coaches of that team, and we are just the players.

You really need to learn to differentiate between legitimate news and opinion sources and wingnuts, fascists and lunatic sites.

I get the idea you're not really a bad guy at heart, but you're taking this bullshit you get on the internet for truth, and it just ain't.

eyeball · May 26, 2016

No doubt taxme will be straightened out in no time under Argus' careful tutelage. :lol:

taxme · May 26, 2016

You really need to learn to differentiate between legitimate news and opinion sources and wingnuts, fascists and lunatic sites.

I get the idea you're not really a bad guy at heart, but you're taking this bullshit you get on the internet for truth, and it just ain't.

I think that I am quite capable of knowing as to who is throwing around the crap and who isn't. And my listening to Max Kieser has showed me the way, and has given me a perspective on how this crooked system works. So far, no one here has. The internet has been good for you and me, us peons, and has done more harm than good for the elite cabal who pretty much enjoy every day trying to spread misinformation and lies around.

taxme · May 26, 2016

No doubt taxme will be straightened out in no time under Argus' careful tutelage.

No disrespect to Argus but I think that my sources have done wonders for me in trying to make me understand as to how this stinking politically correct crooked system of ours has done to all of us. This present system of ours has been forced on all of us with no mandate. The elite with their politically correct programs and agendas have pushed their beliefs on we the people that we did not ask for it. And we are suffering because of it.

Maybe it is you that should try to straighten your own self out by going to the many of the websites that I have posted. Those websites won't bite.