North America Recession Coming?

[Scott Mayers]

I interpret the link in the OP as presenting the fact that the 'suppliers' are withholding product or services for things competitively. As such, this is an indicator of trouble. When the suppliers lack concern to require trading by stocking up, this indicates they have confidence to withhold actual competition by the very 'free market' to which they most likely also lobby the strongest for. This indicates stronger ownership (or 'power of control', in general) to fewer people who are holding the majority hostage by forcing them to accept their terms. Then we start to see junk quality goods and services being imposed upon us with lesser real options. This IS happening. Then inflation takes hold as the greed escalates by others using their own powers to do the same as they don't want to miss on the same potential profiting when they can in their own luxury.

The propaganda attempts to dismiss these concerns is as flawed because it is in the very interest of those in power to deflate the doubt within the majority because it means they would demand more government controls and regulations against such forces.

We ARE in a recession right now. It is a continuation of the previous case but is being continuously transferred between political borders like a hot potato. Example? (my own biased hypothesis here) The scandal of Target to have set up in Canada precisely when they were breached of security in the U.S. . Why would they open up shop here when they had such a loss? We have an agreement in our two countries (among others) that assert any corporate entity or 'ownerships' remain "domestic". Before, a Canadian company in the U.S. and vice versa were enabled to treat those entities as liable to their own sovereignty. So a company BEFORE had to go bankrupt in their own country should they establish base in another. However, with those like Target, their established setup here in Canada was likely NOT meant to be permanent but to transfer the debt of the losses from the U.S. entity to us as Canadians through their bankruptcy here. This means Target (U.S.) was 'saved' by transferring their losses to us. This is just one example of what I mean by passing the hot potato.

But this is occurring everywhere and it cannot be kept up continuously. The problems of the mortgage bubbles in the U.S. IS happening NOW here!! I warned of this when I noticed our population suddenly increased dramatically here in Saskatoon via the "Temporary Worker" laws. They were intentionally designed to draw false population pressure by their apparent 'temporary' demand on housing. As such, our rents (and thus mortgages) all went up fast. The expectation of those exploiting this here has to do with those in construction-related industries using this to create new income. But such growth in housing WITHOUT any actual growth in other Prime Industries, is like staging a new Reservation up North with housing but with no economy to keep it going. This is a Ponzi scheme.

The "Temporary workers" were sold on us as means for others to come here to fulfill jobs that we here supposedly wouldn't take. It treated the situation as though McDonalds was unable to get people here to work for them so desperately needed foreign workers to 'temporarily' fulfill these menial positions. BUT, how the hell does this get 'sold' to the foreigner? Certainly this cannot appeal to the desperately poor of some place like Ethiopia who need some job they can't get even there at their home and are so desperate for. If this was the case, you have to ask HOW could a poor person from such an impoverished country AFFORD to even come here to get such a job? Then, HOW could such poor people even be able to expect to save on some McJob to send home OR to even afford the ticket back? It doesn't make sense without it actually having a hidden motive.....to entice actual wealthy people who DON"T need McJobs to come here and buy up or invest in those construction industries. Such a 'temporary worker' is thus more likely to be the wealthier of those foreign countries expecting to come here to buy a real piece of Canada either expecting latter "non-temporary" status, or to go home with the money earned from their investments leaving the country via things like expected rent or other sales.

The construction industries here, including real estate owners capitalize on the exchanges quickly. It is not a concern that such a thing could collapse since if this occurs, it is the foreign 'owner' now at default and so these become available as foreclosures when everything collapses and the very industries that capitalized on this scheme can buy BACK these at even cheaper prices to recycle the whole thing again. It's a win-win for the most powerful, such as those like Trump, for instance.

And in general, we ALL pay for this as such schemes create a false sense of demand to which those in other services then control and limit the supply making the majority to require paying more for less.

Edited June 27, 2016 by Scott Mayers

[msj]

I interpret the link in the OP as presenting the fact that the 'suppliers' are withholding product or services for things competitively. As such, this is an indicator of trouble. When the suppliers lack concern to require trading by stocking up, this indicates they have confidence to withhold actual competition by the very 'free market' to which they most likely also lobby the strongest for. This indicates stronger ownership (or 'power of control', in general) to fewer people who are holding the majority hostage by forcing them to accept their terms. Then we start to see junk quality goods and services being imposed upon us with lesser real options. This IS happening. Then inflation takes hold as the greed escalates by others using their own powers to do the same as they don't want to miss on the same potential profiting when they can in their own luxury.

The OP linked to a post that discussed one statistic: business inventories.

When business inventories build it is because of a lack of sales.

Inventory is just cash sitting on the shelf doing nothing - it is not even liquid like cash and it is possible that it could become obsolete so business has no incentive to stock up and hold inventory unless they think it will turn over quickly.

Perhaps if we were in a high inflation economy then there would be an incentive to withhold inventory but even that is doubtful.

Once again, it is a matter of turning over the inventory that is profitable.

Holding inventory just costs money - storage, security, rent, finance charges so only fools hold more inventory than they need.

[Scott Mayers]

The OP linked to a post that discussed one statistic: business inventories.

When business inventories build it is because of a lack of sales.

Inventory is just cash sitting on the shelf doing nothing - it is not even liquid like cash and it is possible that it could become obsolete so business has no incentive to stock up and hold inventory unless they think it will turn over quickly.

Perhaps if we were in a high inflation economy then there would be an incentive to withhold inventory but even that is doubtful.

Once again, it is a matter of turning over the inventory that is profitable.

Holding inventory just costs money - storage, security, rent, finance charges so only fools hold more inventory than they need.

No, "lack of sales" is NOT the only reason for not selling product. This is only 'true' if the products are NOT in demand. Take how food, like meat, gets tossed out rather than to reduce the price for consumers instead. You see the shelves filled with mostly unfresh sources. Do you suppose that people are just all collectively quitting meat to become vegetarians? And this has been done for too long. I also notice other quality of food products for instance that are in high demands being limited from being sold altogether to force people to choose what is 'next' available with inevitably lower demand.

[Scott Mayers]

Funny example: I kept my last jar (empty) of "Last Mountain's Old Fashioned Saskatoon Berry" jam to try to seek out why here in Saskatoon we have no supply when it is in such high demand. The site, "CanadasFood.com", asserts you can even locate this by indicating your region in the list. Our jam supposedly is from berries grown locally too. Yet, the site does not even HAVE Saskatoon listed anymore! Of all places, what would the likelihood that our shelves are specifically denied "Saskatoon Berry" jam IN the city of Saskatoon?

Would you, msj, think this is some mere proof of lack of demand? I think rather that the company has some deal to withhold their product even though IN DEMAND to sell us less desirable stock instead. I just contacted them now by email to see if they'll respond. Since they appear to be a collective company, I'm guessing jam by this company is still being sold here but via another lesser brand-named version and to the less demanded flavors.

[msj]

Sure, there is spoilage.

If you think a business enjoys paying for meat and then ends up throwing it out at a loss then you know nothing about business.

If you have not gone to your supermarket and never bought those "Maui ribs" before and given any kind of thought as to what they really are (near rotten meat covered up in a very strong BBQ sauce) then you do not understand diarrhea.

If you do not notice that meat does often go on sale near and on the expiry days then your consumer skills are lacking.

[msj]

If you want locally made jam then I suggest you make it yourself.

Otherwise, too bad, you have to pay the going price.

[Scott Mayers]

msj,

As to the meat, NO, the prices are NOT lower! They also have limited the range of qualities. AND, to give another example, what was considered, "lean" or "extra lean" for beef, is NOT what they claim considering I've had to dump unusual amounts of grease when cooking these now.

As to the jam, THERE IS NO SASKATOON BERRY JAM for ANY location here.

I'm guessing by your defensiveness that you have your own preference for the present status? ...or not noticing? ...or relatively fortunate?

[sharkman]

msj,

As to the meat, NO, the prices are NOT lower! They also have limited the range of qualities. AND, to give another example, what was considered, "lean" or "extra lean" for beef, is NOT what they claim considering I've had to dump unusual amounts of grease when cooking these now.

As to the jam, THERE IS NO SASKATOON BERRY JAM for ANY location here.

I'm guessing by your defensiveness that you have your own preference for the present status? ...or not noticing? ...or relatively fortunate?

So Mj is getting defensive about matters economic again? That's like saying the sky is blue today, but just keep your head about you, get your info from several sources and it never hurts to be fiscally conservative.

[msj]

I'm not being defensive at all.

As for saskatoon berry jam - I doubt that would make it into the statistics that the OP was referring to in the first place.

If you think that a business is going to make money by paying for storage costs versus turning over inventory, especially when it comes to something as trivial as jam, then you really do not understand business.

Yes, some rich people do that kind of thing with oil - store it in container ships. But that proves to be a speculation that cuts both ways.

As for meat - prices go up and down all the time. Depends on the time of year. Also use a freezer so do have some storage on hand.

Don't notice ground beef though since I only get the local organic kind from a friend of mine so have no idea what it is like in the grocery store.

But stay away from those Maui ribs because they will make you spill out of both ends.

[Scott Mayers]

So Mj is getting defensive about matters economic again? That's like saying the sky is blue today, but just keep your head about you, get your info from several sources and it never hurts to be fiscally conservative.

Yes, I am fine on my own. And I simply refuse to bother buying what is being forced on us where I am able to. But speaking up will at least encourage others to speak up too without thinking they are simply only interpreting their own similar conditions as merely "local". This is what the conservative is attempting to hide. They don't like the skepticism that might threaten their own bottom line as they jump into the con KNOWING they are as guilty for participating in this scheme.

[msj]

So Mj is getting defensive about matters economic again? That's like saying the sky is blue today, but just keep your head about you, get your info from several sources and it never hurts to be fiscally conservative.

Um, I am fiscally conservative.

I want higher consumption taxes, lower income taxes, and enough government spending as to ensure the people are civilized and don't revolt.

I suppose that is defensive but also smart.

[msj]

Yes, I am fine on my own. And I simply refuse to bother buying what is being forced on us where I am able to. But speaking up will at least encourage others to speak up too without thinking they are simply only interpreting their own similar conditions as merely "local". This is what the conservative is attempting to hide. They don't like the skepticism that might threaten their own bottom line as they jump into the con KNOWING they are as guilty for participating in this scheme.

I am curious as to what is being hidden?

Besides Saskatoon berry jam?

[Scott Mayers]

I'm not being defensive at all.

As for saskatoon berry jam - I doubt that would make it into the statistics that the OP was referring to in the first place.

If you think that a business is going to make money by paying for storage costs versus turning over inventory, especially when it comes to something as trivial as jam, then you really do not understand business.

Yes, some rich people do that kind of thing with oil - store it in container ships. But that proves to be a speculation that cuts both ways.

As for meat - prices go up and down all the time. Depends on the time of year. Also use a freezer so do have some storage on hand.

Don't notice ground beef though since I only get the local organic kind from a friend of mine so have no idea what it is like in the grocery store.

But stay away from those Maui ribs because they will make you spill out of both ends.

I don't even KNOW what "Maui ribs" are. I assure you, supply has been limited to more than simply jam or meat. It is to all products lately. This is why you have to recognize how the supply-side is being NON-competitive and likely a hint of the monopolies that are actually occurring. Much of this is hidden by companies creating multiple brands merely to create the illusion of non-monopoly conditions. But when you notice how high normal-demand products are limited this way, the stocking of them is suspicious at least.

Take chocolate as another example. The quality of chocolate has been drastically reduced in the last few years when we actually had previous high qualities for almost a decade. I pay attention to the details. For instance, there used to be a chocolate bar called, "Zero" which had luxury Belgian chocolate and in high demand. The company, however, was 'silently' bought out by Kraft AND without the recipe with it. Kraft denied it but were on record doing this. Then the same bars were switched to the new low quality chocolate (bait and switch). I noticed immediately but the bars remained on the shelves for about a year before the loyal chocolate lovers realized the con.

The same occurred with Becel's product line, "I can't believe it's not Butter". They had increased their quality up to about 2008 when suddenly they changed their product to a lower quality version that no longer tasted like butter. They asserted that people 'demanded' this change but the taste was clearly too different. Then later, Becel came out with the same identical flavor but now in their "Becel" brand when people complained about it. This too is a "bait-and-switch" tactic intended to diminish the quality AND raise the prices at the same time.

I could go on. But I'm totally disgusted by today's blatant abuses of the public. And I have to ask, what do you think in regards to the other issues I raised of creating false demand through the 'temporary worker' project? This too is a form of shaping success non-competitively. They falsely created the illusion of population that put pressure as a demand against the population's interest. It favored the 'demand' of the greedy construction and real estate industries, but to the disadvantage of the population, as we'll soon realize when the mortgages begin to default in the next few years.

[msj]

I think in a free market business is allowed to buy out other companies and change products.

As a consumer you have the right to not buy those products and switch loyalties.

The same as it ever was.

Regardless, this has virtually nothing to do with the OP which is with respect to business inventories which would include things like automobiles and clothing and durables.

As to temporary workers - yes, I was not happy with Harper's foreign worker program and expect to see the same under Trudeau.

It really is a matter of Tim Horton's not wanting to pay more in wages so they find a way to get foreign workers (to use one example I am all too aware of in my local community).

Of course, they don't want to pay more because they don't want to jack up their prices so, once again, same as it ever was.

[Scott Mayers]

I am curious as to what is being hidden?

Besides Saskatoon berry jam?

The pretense of things being 'fine' economically when they are NOT. You no doubt live in a nice self-owned house, have two cars, and two kids but believe you represent the 'repressed' for having to pay taxes no matter how well off you could be doing. [not accusing you, just a statement of the average conservative supporter.] But we ALL have to pay attention. If you also feed into trend to capitalize in these ways, you become part of the problem too.

I don't even "know" which political ideal is 'ideal' but know that the present conditions here are what occurred in the U.S. already and we are not noticing or ignoring it.

[Scott Mayers]

I think in a free market business is allowed to buy out other companies and change products.

As a consumer you have the right to not buy those products and switch loyalties.

The same as it ever was.

Regardless, this has virtually nothing to do with the OP which is with respect to business inventories which would include things like automobiles and clothing and durables.

As to temporary workers - yes, I was not happy with Harper's foreign worker program and expect to see the same under Trudeau.

It really is a matter of Tim Horton's not wanting to pay more in wages so they find a way to get foreign workers (to use one example I am all too aware of in my local community).

Of course, they don't want to pay more because they don't want to jack up their prices so, once again, same as it ever was.

Ownership is becoming consolidated and today large businesses are more capable than ever of acting in ways that can intellectually hide their accountability. The jam example likely hints at a sincere monopoly. You can't assert we can buy what is not even being presented AS available. This is what the link in the OP represents for the stocking. They are pushing least quality products when in either monopoly or virtual forms of it and holding back the better quality to just enhance a false need for increased demand. It is thus not naturally 'free', but contrived only to 'appear' this way.

[msj]

You know nothing about me: do not own a home, own a business, own one car, no kids.

All things done by choice because I understand that my wife and I have most of the control over our life - from saving to birth control.

Also, I do not support the CPC's - Harper is/was repugnant to me primarily on a fiscal level - he lowered the GST, he increased boutique tax credits - the man was an idiot, imo.

I think this is a simple case of commodity prices going down and it has hit many people in AB and SK hard.

That's a pity but we do have programs in place to help out - EI in particular.

And it is always wise to save during the good times just in case there are bad times. That is something most people can control but often choose to buy the big shiny truck instead.

So be it, not my problem.

[msj]

Ownership is becoming consolidated and today large businesses are more capable than ever of acting in ways that can intellectually hide their accountability. The jam example likely hints at a sincere monopoly. You can't assert we can buy what is not even being presented AS available. This is what the link in the OP represents for the stocking. They are pushing least quality products when in either monopoly or virtual forms of it and holding back the better quality to just enhance a false need for increased demand. It is thus not naturally 'free', but contrived only to 'appear' this way.

The link in the OP is talking about business inventories and is taking one statistic and trying to imply that that means the US is already in a recession or that a recession is/was coming. It does not go into the quality of that inventory.

It is dealing with the very simple point that businesses have purchased stock and that stock has not been sold as the businesses hoped so they are hanging onto that stock and, presumably, reducing future purchases of stock to allow existing inventories to turnover.

To look at only one stat is pretty foolish - best to look at several statistics to try and gauge the probability of a recession - the best one being the slope of interest rate yields.

With Brexit even the US now faces a prospect of a recession. Canada also almost certainly must put it on the table - our economy is at the whim of commodity prices and real estate which must be a major concern for a government that will have very little influence over either.

Commodities are subject to world prices. We can only hope that world demand increases and/or shortage of supply for whatever reason happens elsewhere (crop failures in foreign lands, war in Libya, etc is good for Canada).

Our real estate debt bubble has grown worse and worse and I feel sorry for any politician looking for an easy fix when Canadians are as stupid as they have been racking up debt like their is no tomorrow (especially after seeing the American example - we should know better from their experience).

But we have had the choice all along so to a large extent we should point the finger at ourselves for allowing this to happen.

[Scott Mayers]

Cool. Like I said, I can't confidently back any one economic ideal but do believe that if we at least discuss it, others will listen and hopefully play their own role at trying to be responsible too. If that link was only one point in determining what IS or is NOT a 'recession', I can't argue their specific definition as this is a political/economic term only. A 'recession' can be a term to merely describe people not spending money when the majority could actually be generally 'happy' for what they already have. Spending, even where more are desperate can be considered a 'good' economy only because those in business define it this way.

[msj]

In the US they have a committee that determines a recession.

It is always determined after the fact and usually requires two consecutive quarters of negative GDP among other factors (employment, wages etc).

In Canada it is generally two quarters of negative GDP - hence our "technical recession" last year which was borderline by a hair.

As to what it feels like - that is different for everyone.

No doubt O&G people/business suffers.

Meanwhile, tourism is doing really well right now in BC thanks to the low dollar.

Like anything in life there are good and bad effects.

Regardless, people like to come up with the usual scapegoats - foreigners, big business, big government etc...

[bush_cheney2004]

... Then, HOW could such poor people even be able to expect to save on some McJob to send home OR to even afford the ticket back? It doesn't make sense without it actually having a hidden motive.....to entice actual wealthy people who DON"T need McJobs to come here and buy up or invest in those construction industries.

There are many channels to encourage and facilitate the relocation of foreign workers to North America. Recruiting is very active in nations around the world. Just like capital, cheap labour is now very portable. Trade agreements include provisions to streamline the flow of such labour/ workers.

[Scott Mayers]

Our "temporary worker" policy occurred in the Conservative's reign to which they would likely have a profit motive in mind but usually their usual disapproval of immigrants for other issues raises doubt about this. The 'temporary' status of this however, and to the fact that poor people from other nations would not actually be the real ones to come over here means that it is an exploit intended for another reason. They likely expected the wealth that HAS come over. As soon as this sudden population occurred a couple years ago here in Saskatoon (August 2012/13?) most of the people I'm aware of as such (neighbors) have more fortune than the average middle class already here. There's no way that they could afford such luxuries that I'm witnessing personally on McJobs! This is NOT the same thing as Mexicans crossing the border that ARE poor and require the same McJobs out of desperation.

[Scott Mayers]

P.S. The temporary work could be akin to 'work vacations' where wealthy citizens here would go to third world places to both work, learn of cultures, and still get paid to survive while there. But those coming here are not intended to serve to fulfill those needed jobs that we aren't taking in reality unless it is out of trivial intent in kind to those work vacationers abroad. So they are not only not 'desperate' but may merely take such jobs here while they can see what they could possibly do to invest here AND find some hope to be permanent, rather than 'temporary' as this is likely sold.

[bush_cheney2004]

....So they are not only not 'desperate' but may merely take such jobs here while they can see what they could possibly do to invest here AND find some hope to be permanent, rather than 'temporary' as this is likely sold.

But the worker influx represents far more than that ....example...Canada/U.S. actively recruit workers for their health care systems (like nurses from The Philippines). Skilled and unskilled workers will always strive to go where there is greater opportunity. American, Canadian, and Mexican citizens do this as well.

[Scott Mayers]

I don't have a problem with Immigration, bush_cheney2004. I think it should be done with permanence unless it is simply as a 'vacation', for being 'temporary'.