Britain Sets Date for EU Referendum -- Brexit

[BC_chick]

The stock markets have now fully recovered from the post-Brexit shock.

Those of you who were worried about your stock portfolios can now reshizzle your holdings to limit British exposure without penalty. Go! Go now!

-k

Markets like predictability and as the dust settles, the Brexit side is appearing less and less like it's going to be able to get what they want. That brings more stability to the market.

PM resigned spectacularly leaving theExit camp to clean up the mess they started. They all went into hiding and when they finally resurfaced, there was talk of Britain remaining as a 'single market' and much a 'part of Britain' even though it' seen stipulated thoroughly that the single market comes with movement of people. They're not going to have their cake and eat it too as much as they think they will. This is a huge reality that has sink in.

Boris Johnson threw in the towel today leaving the job for someone else to clean up. There is virtiually noindication of invoking Article 50 any time soon and with Scotland threatening to veto, I think at this point the market is becoming more hopeful that the status-quo will continue.

Once Article 50 is invoked and Britain is denied special privileges it'll be ugly. The only reason the panic subsided is because it still isn't certain that the referendum will amount to anything.

[kimmy]

Once Article 50 is invoked and Britain is denied special privileges it'll be ugly. The only reason the panic subsided is because it still isn't certain that the referendum will amount to anything.

"Guys! Wait! Guys! The sky could still fall, guys! It could still happen! Come on, guys!"

-Chicken Little.

-k

[BC_chick]

"Guys! Wait! Guys! The sky could still fall, guys! It could still happen! Come on, guys!"

-Chicken Little.

-k

Actually, the point you seem to have missed about my post is that it doesn't appear Brexit will be happening any time soon. If ever. Edited July 1, 2016 by BC_chick

[Wilber]

What alternatives are being offered? If people are only given a choice between the status quo and a lunatic people will pick the lunatic if the pushed enough. The blame rests with the establishment that figured they could just ignore these issues.

If you chose to pick a lunatic who offers no alternative, that isn't someone else's fault. The irony is, this could prompt the EU to deal with some of its problems and once dealt with, Britain would be on the outside looking in.

[kimmy]

If you chose to pick a lunatic who offers no alternative, that isn't someone else's fault. The irony is, this could prompt the EU to deal with some of its problems and once dealt with, Britain would be on the outside looking in.

Without this kick in the nuts, what makes you think the EU would have ever gotten around to dealing with any of those issues?

-k

[kimmy]

Actually, the point you seem to have missed about my post is that it doesn't appear Brexit will be happening any time soon. If ever.

Don't you think it's more likely that with the uncertainty of the outcome removed and a week to recover from their incorrect last-minute bets on Remain, the markets have righted themselves because of stability, not because they secretly still think Britain will stay?

- k

[eyeball]

What will happen is that the angst will continue to build and extremists will take extremism to the next level(s).

[kimmy]

What will happen is that the angst will continue to build and extremists will take extremism to the next level(s).

We are getting closer to the proletariat uprising you have dreamed of! You should be excited!

-k

[BC_chick]

Don't you think it's more likely that with the uncertainty of the outcome removed and a week to recover from their incorrect last-minute bets on Remain, the markets have righted themselves because of stability, not because they secretly still think Britain will stay?

- k

Honestly, no, I think Brexit (or lack thereof I should say) is the key point driving that stability.

Exit wants the best of both worlds (Boris Johnson saying they'll remain part of the single market without accepting the people's movement part of the deal) and I'd be very surprised if EU ends up giving them what they want. The fact that Johnson opted out of cleaning his own mess shows how complicated it is. This is my speculation but even he knows it's not good for the country and he doesn't want to be at helm of destroying things.

A fundamental rule in finance is that the markets thrive in stability. This was mentioned to you earlier by MG when you questioned why stocks would fall if nothing concrete happened.

The referendum shook up the world and gave us a glimpse into what may await but as the week passed and Brexit started showing cracks and the chances of it actually happening subsided, the markets stabilized.

If (not when) it happens, yes, I have doubt the markets will turn again.

[overthere]

"Guys! Wait! Guys! The sky could still fall, guys! It could still happen! Come on, guys!"

-Chicken Little.

-k

At this point, 44% of British exports go to the EU. It is easily Britains largest customer. Once the UK invokes Section 50, there is no reason for the EU not to immediately apply tariffs, just as it does on other non-EU importers. The economy of the UK would have a shattering and immediate blow, since there is no way to immediately find another captive market like the EU .

Exit wants the best of both worlds (Boris Johnson saying they'll remain part of the single market without accepting the people's movement part of the deal) and I'd be very surprised if EU ends up giving them what they want.

There is a very simple way for the UK to stay in the EU, and to slow immigration.

The UK has had loads of immigrants for generations. What they object to now is waves of poor European Union migrants, mostly from poor east European countries. The reason they come is because there is easy access to generous social benefits, and less outright discrimination/xenophobia (as there is, for example, in France) . If the UK wants to stop the flood in its tracks, they have to change their social welfare programs to drastically limit benefits . By doing so, they mnake Britain far less atractive as a destination for resettlerment. Of course, the mighty turd on the table is that they would have to limit those benefits for everybody, not just EU immigrants. Their population is long accustomed to a generous cradle -to grave social contract.

It s a tough choice for them. I doubt they have the stones to take the hard road of cutting benefits. So it will be 'hello independence'. Oddly enough, it is very likely that their economy will be so grim they will have to radically slash that plump social contract anyway. I doubt the Leave voters and campaigners saw this unintended consequence, but I expect they will soon but too late.

[Argus]

An interesting... albeit lengthy ... non-partisan explanation of HOW the UK got to where it has.

From the Guardian? Hardly non-partisan.

However, there was this piece which struck me as the heart of the matter:

When leaders choose the facts that suit them, ignore the facts that don’t and, in the absence of suitable facts, simply make things up, people don’t stop believing in facts – they stop believing in leaders. They do so not because they are over-emotional, under-educated, bigoted or hard-headed, but because trust has been eroded to such a point that the message has been so tainted by the messenger as to render it worthless.

Instead of sputtering about xenophobia and stupidity the political and media elites, who are incestuously intertwined, should give a thought to how they lost touch with so much of the country - presuming they even understand they have, or care.

[Argus]

They all went into hiding and when they finally resurfaced, there was talk of Britain remaining as a 'single market' and much a 'part of Britain' even though it' seen stipulated thoroughly that the single market comes with movement of people.

No, the EU is stubbornly sticking to that requirement. Canada and the US have free trade but not the free movement of people.

[Argus]

At this point, 44% of British exports go to the EU. It is easily Britains largest customer.

And it runs a trade deficit. Drying up trade with the UK would harm the EU.

Once the UK invokes Section 50, there is no reason for the EU not to immediately apply tariffs, just as it does on other non-EU importers.

And yet, somehow, those other nations survive.

The economy of the UK would have a shattering and immediate blow, since there is no way to immediately find another captive market like the EU .

You don't know what percentage of exports would be affected, or what the countervailing reduction in imports would do, nor what agreements the UK might reach with the EU or other countries, including Canada. Nor do you know what percentage of the UK economy is made up by exports.

[Wilber]

Without this kick in the nuts, what makes you think the EU would have ever gotten around to dealing with any of those issues?

-k

They would have to deal with them regardless of what the UK does, this might just speed it up a little.

[BC_chick]

The UK has had loads of immigrants for generations. What they object to now is waves of poor European Union migrants, mostly from poor east European countries. The reason they come is because there is easy access to generous social benefits, and less outright discrimination/xenophobia (as there is, for example, in France) . If the UK wants to stop the flood in its tracks, they have to change their social welfare programs to drastically limit benefits . By doing so, they mnake Britain far less atractive as a destination for resettlerment. Of course, the mighty turd on the table is that they would have to limit those benefits for everybody, not just EU immigrants. Their population is long accustomed to a generous cradle -to grave social contract.

It s a tough choice for them. I doubt they have the stones to take the hard road of cutting benefits. So it will be 'hello independence'. Oddly enough, it is very likely that their economy will be so grim they will have to radically slash that plump social contract anyway. I doubt the Leave voters and campaigners saw this unintended consequence, but I expect they will soon but too late.

If they don't come to a reasonable agreement, it's a tough choice for both EU and Britain - not just Britain. The EU loses a major player and Britain, a net importer, loses their single market.

If the EU crumbles, they will come out with the most losses, but if they manage to stay intact, Britain will be the one bearing the bigger loss.

[Derek 2.0]

Boris Johnson threw in the towel today leaving the job for someone else to clean up. There is virtiually noindication of invoking Article 50 any time soon and with Scotland threatening to veto, I think at this point the market is becoming more hopeful that the status-quo will continue.

Johnson threw in the towel because he was outflanked and sandbagged by Micheal Gove (In true Shakespearean fashion), who Johnson thought was his biggest backer within the Tories, all the while Gove (and his wife) were gaining the support within the party establishment.........Gove was able to do so through using Johnson's own words and painting Johnson as a "leave" moderate that would seek Free Trade with the EU for the free movement of people.

And I doubt the status-quo will continue.......once the Tories select a new leader.

[Derek 2.0]

At this point, 44% of British exports go to the EU. It is easily Britains largest customer. Once the UK invokes Section 50, there is no reason for the EU not to immediately apply tariffs, just as it does on other non-EU importers. The economy of the UK would have a shattering and immediate blow, since there is no way to immediately find another captive market like the EU .

The thing you're waxing over is that the UK has a trade deficit with the EU.........any (WTO defined) tariffs would be met with the same......the UK is one of the biggest markets for German goods, and is why the Germans are taking a far more diplomatic approach.

[Derek 2.0]

And it runs a trade deficit. Drying up trade with the UK would harm the EU.

Exactly, which is why the serious EU economies aren't suggesting tariffs, and they will bargain or see their own economies cratered.

[Derek 2.0]

If they don't come to a reasonable agreement, it's a tough choice for both EU and Britain - not just Britain. The EU loses a major player and Britain, a net importer, loses their single market.

The UK has a trade deficit with the EU, namely the Germans and French......inversely of their five largest partners that import UK goods & services, three aren't even in the EU (USA, the Swiss and Chinese).

[-TSS-]

Britain is a major important country and despite brexit both the EU and Britain have common interests; therefore the idea that the EU would somehow "revenge" is ludicrous as they possible couldn't do so without hurting themselves too.

If a minor country like Finland quit the EU the revenge would totally annihilate Finland. No doubt about that. Therefore I am not warming up to some people's idea of having a similar referendum here. There's a world of difference between Britain and Finland.

[dre]

Britain is a major important country and despite brexit both the EU and Britain have common interests; therefore the idea that the EU would somehow "revenge" is ludicrous as they possible couldn't do so without hurting themselves too.

If a minor country like Finland quit the EU the revenge would totally annihilate Finland. No doubt about that. Therefore I am not warming up to some people's idea of having a similar referendum here. There's a world of difference between Britain and Finland.

I don't think they will act out of a desire for revenge... But if they want to keep the EU together and stop other countries from leaving then they cant just let Britain pick and choose which parts it wants take part in.

After all, if you can take back control of your own laws, and still benefit from the economic union then why would ANY nation stay?

[-TSS-]

Because Britain is Britain and Finland is Finland. Can you imagine that London would lose its position as the joint financial hub in the world together with Wall Street? Me neither.

Britain will be treated differently and there will be a cordial break-up as both would only lose if they started a trade-war.

Simultaneously the EU will tell Finland and similar minnows not to even think about doing likewise if they don't fancy the living standards of the 1950's.

[SpankyMcFarland]

The thing you're waxing over is that the UK has a trade deficit with the EU.........any (WTO defined) tariffs would be met with the same......the UK is one of the biggest markets for German goods, and is why the Germans are taking a far more diplomatic approach.

Both stand to lose a lot. Britain's banks need access to the EU:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a3a92744-3a52-11e6-9a05-82a9b15a8ee7.html#axzz4DBZ7yfcE

Germany may prefer a cosy deal but many countries in Eastern Europe do not want to see the EU break up, given the recent pronouncements of Trump on NATO and behaviour of Putin to his neighbours. The desire for a tough line to be taken will not come from France alone. Farage better tone down his antics and Britain should hope for fewer 'Polish vermin' signs sprouting up.

The Brexiteers seem keen to delay things now into an indefinite Brelimbo but many on the other side want a faster break.

Edited July 1, 2016 by SpankyMcFarland

[Derek 2.0]

Both stand to lose a lot. Britain's banks need access to the EU:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a3a92744-3a52-11e6-9a05-82a9b15a8ee7.html#axzz4DBZ7yfcE

The United Kingdom's largest banking clients are in the United States, Asia and the Middle East......The UK still has a massive trade deficit with the EU, hence by the numbers, the EU would be hurt more.........of course Brexit won't result in either camps economic skies falling.

I don't know the reason for your link, its behind a paywall......by all means, quote something from it if you wish to address it.

Germany may prefer a cosy deal but many countries in Eastern Europe do not want to see the EU break up, given the recent pronouncements of Trump on NATO and behaviour of Putin to his neighbours.

That makes zero sense........the UK hasn't suggested its relations with NATO would be changed one bit.....I doubt the Germans, nor anyone else in the EU, is going to tell the UK to take its nuclear umbrella and go home

The desire for a tough line to be taken will not come from France alone.

It won't come from France either, as the current administration doesn't have a hope in hell of being reelected......the French could very well elect their own Euro-skeptics, which are competitive in early polling.

Farage better tone down his antics and Britain should hope for fewer 'Polish vermin' signs sprouting up.

Why? Are you suggesting there aren't any racial tensions in Europe proper?

[Bryan]

Both stand to lose a lot.

Britain isn't going to lose anything. Once the dust settles, they'll be ahead of where they were the day before the vote. They absolutely WILL have open access to the European common market, just as several other non-EU countries do.