2015 Federal Election Prediction

[socialist]

I'll be the first to say it: LIBERAL MAJORITY

Trudeau is doing in Canada what Obama did in the USA. People want real change, not the same old style politics. Normally I am an NDP supporter, but Trudeau with his charisma has made me a Liberal supporter. The thing that gets me very excited is the fact that the young vote will be huge in 2015. I talk to many 18=-23 year - olds and all of them are excited about having Trudeau as PM because they can relate to him. Many of them have told me that they'v never voted before, but will make sure to get out and vote for Justin. This is an exciting time to be a Canadian.A ll we have to do is weather the next 2 years. It's exciting to see someone bring integrity back to Canadian politics.

Anyone else with a prediction? I don't even know if the CPC will get 90 seats. I see the Greens makin some headway too, as Elizabeth May has shown that she'll be able to work with the open Trudeau.

[bush_cheney2004]

Trudeau is doing in Canada what Obama did in the USA. People want real change, not the same old style politics.

Trudeau hasn't done anything yet, and he sure isn't going to be anything like Obama "in the USA", as President Obama continued most of President Bush's domestic and foreign policies. Real change !!

[scribblet]

Trudeau is hardly going to bring change so far nothing new and nothing of importance.

I'll predict a conservative minority with the Liberals as opposition.

[socialist]

Trudeau is hardly going to bring change so far nothing new and nothing of importance.

I'll predict a conservative minority with the Liberals as opposition.

I respect your prediction. However, with the trend being set in the recent by-elections, there is now way the CPC win.

[socialist]

Trudeau hasn't done anything yet, and he sure isn't going to be anything like Obama "in the USA", as President Obama continued most of President Bush's domestic and foreign policies. Real change !!

He will do lots. What do you know about Trudeau? Do you follow Canadian politics closely or what?

[bush_cheney2004]

He will do lots. What do you know about Trudeau? Do you follow Canadian politics closely or what?

Of course...doesn't the whole world follow Canadian politics so they can make comparisons to "Obama" ? Trudeau is just the latest flop sweat in failed leadership for a Liberal Party banished to wander in the political desert for 40 years for crimes against Canada.

[socialist]

Of course...doesn't the whole world follow Canadian politics so they can make comparisons to "Obama" ? Trudeau is just the latest flop sweat in failed leadership for a Liberal Party banished to wander in the political desert for 40 years for crimes against Canada.

Ummmm...have you been following the senate scandal? How you gonna blame Justin for that...huh?

[Guest Derek L]

Trudeau is hardly going to bring change so far nothing new and nothing of importance.

I'll predict a conservative minority with the Liberals as opposition.

I'm sticking with a (slightly) larger Tory majority based on economic news/tax breaks targeted at middle income Canadians, the new seats and vote splitting.......As to the by-elections, as often mentioned, said elections are often used as a tool by the public to “send a message” and protest the sitting Government……As evident by the most recent ones, the Tories will have to learn to update their nomination procedures so as to prevent a disgruntled son of a former Tory MP running as a Liberal……Other then that, status quo…….

A few months ago I was certain we’d see the Trudeau Liberals displace the NDP as the official opposition, but it seems once Trudeau really starts opening his gab and out farts rainbows and unicorns, it will ultimately be up to Mulcair to lose his current title……Flakiness alone, Trudeau would be a better fit as leader of the NDP flying circus, well the more grown-up Mulcair, the moderate centrists in the Liberal Party.

[socialist]

I'm sticking with a (slightly) larger Tory majority based on economic news/tax breaks targeted at middle income Canadians, the new seats and vote splitting.......As to the by-elections, as often mentioned, said elections are often used as a tool by the public to “send a message” and protest the sitting Government……As evident by the most recent ones, the Tories will have to learn to update their nomination procedures so as to prevent a disgruntled son of a former Tory MP running as a Liberal……Other then that, status quo…….

A few months ago I was certain we’d see the Trudeau Liberals displace the NDP as the official opposition, but it seems once Trudeau really starts opening his gab and out farts rainbows and unicorns, it will ultimately be up to Mulcair to lose his current title……Flakiness alone, Trudeau would be a better fit as leader of the NDP flying circus, well the more grown-up Mulcair, the moderate centrists in the Liberal Party.

I hope you are still here in 2015 when the Liberals win. I have no doubt Trudeau wins. I have spoken to numerous women who tell me they don't care about politics, but they will vote for Justin. Those people who traditionally don't vote or don't have a keen interest will want to be part of TrudeauMania part 2. It's more of a movement than anything Canada has ever seen.

But I did get a good chuckle at your CPC majority prediction.

Trudeau is growing stronger and more confident by the day.

And the senate scandal is here for the long haul, and it will be fresh in everyone's mind come 2015, which isn't that far off.

[ReeferMadness]

It's way too soon to start making predictions about the election. However, I do predict that there are a lot of nervous Conservative hangers on looking at other career options.

[bleeding heart]

It's way too soon to start making predictions about the election.

I agree, and nothing sends this message harder than...the last Federal election.

I remember well the discussions on MLW during the run-up...and first of all, hardly anyone, including Conservatives, predicted a Majority; status quo (that is, minority gov't) remained the overwhelming consensus.

Further, I remember ONE single poster predicting the "Orange Wave"...EVERYONE else considered the idea of 100 seats to be a preposterous idea. Totally Out There, man!

Further, virtually no one (and maybe literally no one) here predicted the size of the Liberal defeat.

And in the current scenario, we're talking years, rather than weeks.

Election predictions are fun, but completely useless. And the confidence of so many on the subject is something I find strange.

[Vancouver King]

Prediction: Conservative weak minority with NDP official opposition. Trudeau will about double Liberal seats at Tories expense. Expect the resulting circus to last less than a year.

[Keepitsimple]

Sooner or later, Trudeau will actually have to speak about matters of substance. The few times that he has spoken in QP, he reads from a script and is completely uninspiring. As for the polls, when Canadians finally get to actually listen to him, he'll have nowhere to go but down. The media have created an illusionary character in Trudeau. "He's in over his head" is not an attack.....it's a clear statement of fact, obvious to any non-partisan who pays attention. Marc Garneau had it right - but the Liberal Backroom Boys told him to cool it. Liberals will once again pay the price for trying to take the "easy" way back to power.

[PIK]

It could very well happen. If the women flock to him like his old man, then we could be in trouble and again it shows that women should not be allowed to vote. ;)The polls say the women are flocking to him, not because of his policies they just want to do him. And we could have a obama, all style and no substanced and obama has proved that well.

Edited December 2, 2013 by PIK

[g_bambino]

Trudeau is doing in Canada what Obama did in the USA. People want real change, not the same old style politics.

So, you mean running a campaign full of emotional rhetoric and no substance. The American political machine looks no different after 5 years with Obama.

I talk to many 18=-23 year - olds and all of them are excited about having Trudeau as PM because they can relate to him.

That's sad.

Many of them have told me that they'v never voted before, but will make sure to get out and vote for Justin.

Also sad they think they vote for the PM.

[socialist]

So, you mean running a campaign full of emotional rhetoric and no substance. The American political machine looks no different after 5 years with Obama.

That's sad.

Also sad they think they vote for the PM.

All that matters is votes. A vote for the Liberals is a vote for Trudeau. Trudeau can relate to the middle class and that is resonating with middle class Canadians.

The senate scandal will still plague the CPC come 2015. Voters are tired of scandal after scandal and won't let this serious scandal slide.

[g_bambino]

Trudeau can relate to the middle class and that is resonating with middle class Canadians.

That's rather an insult to middle class Canadians. Or, you're right; they vote without reason, just emotion. Which still doesn't say much at all for Trudeau Jr. and the Liberals. Which makes one wonder: why are you preemptively celebrating their ascent to government?

Voters are tired of scandal after scandal...

Well, Trudeau Jr. must have their ire warming up.

[eyeball]

Also sad they think they vote for the PM.

It's kind of funny how many Canadians when they vote do so to simply get rid of a PM don't you think, or is that even sadder? Something tells me it should be.

[socialist]

I don't drink the kool-aid.

[-1=e^ipi]

Socialist is such a good troll, lol.

Sooner or later, Trudeau will actually have to speak about matters of substance. The few times that he has spoken in QP, he reads from a script and is completely uninspiring. As for the polls, when Canadians finally get to actually listen to him, he'll have nowhere to go but down. The media have created an illusionary character in Trudeau. "He's in over his head" is not an attack.....it's a clear statement of fact, obvious to any non-partisan who pays attention. Marc Garneau had it right - but the Liberal Backroom Boys told him to cool it. Liberals will once again pay the price for trying to take the "easy" way back to power.

While it is difficult to predict the results of an election in 2 years time, I think something along the lines of a 3 way tie seems reasonable.

[dre]

I think a vote roughly split between the three parties is likely. Probably a conservative or liberal minority government.

[socialist]

Socialist is such a good troll, lol.

While it is difficult to predict the results of an election in 2 years time, I think something along the lines of a 3 way tie seems reasonable.

I will stick by my prediction. Trudeau is rallyng Canadians.

You are a concern troll.

[Spiderfish]

Many of them have told me that they'v never voted before, but will make sure to get out and vote for Justin.

On what basis? His admission of pot use and stance on legalization of it?

Or is it his youth, his shiny hair and charisma?

Anyone else with a prediction?

Sure...Trudeau opens his mouth...Liberal leadership convention sometime early in 2016.

Edited December 3, 2013 by Spiderfish

[carepov]

IMO, the most likely outcome is CPC majority with Liberals taking a few CPC and NDP seats. The main factor is the unemployemnt rate being not significantly higher than 7.5%. The Liberals cannot do any worse than 2011 and the NDP/CPC cannot do any better.

With an recession, the CPC will loose many seats, especially in Ontario. The Liberals will have a chance at a majority with a "Red Wave" as Quebecers may sieze the oportunity to regain a significant voice in Ottawa.

The Bloc is dead, I think.

[Jimmy Wilson]

As long as the NDP are polling around 24 to 26 %,there is no majority in the Liberals future...

Expect the tired line from the Lib's about how they are the only ones who can stop the dastardly Conservatives from Ralph Goodale and Marc Garneau in the not too distant future...