North Korea vs U.S. tensions

[Moonlight Graham]

I don't think there's a thread on this yet, which is surprising since it's a very big story right now. So what does everyone think of the recent events? What do you make of the North Korean threats & the US B-52 and B-2 stealth bomber drills/flyovers in Korea? What do you think about N.Korean nuclear and missile capabilities & potential to strike the US or Japan/South Korea? What do you think the response from US should be, or Canada's role in all of this? Is N.Korea at all justified in some of it's rhetoric and nuclear build-up?

Recent BBC article on the latest events: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-21963369

Analysis of the events from the article by Andrea Berger of the British think tank "Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies" (RUSI):

At present, the risk is not one of large-scale war or nuclear attack, but one
of miscalculation.

North Korea continues to search for new ways to issue threats - partly in an
attempt by the regime to consolidate power at home, and partly in the hope that
the US cancels its exercises as President Clinton did. As Pyongyang does so, the
West calls their bluff and continues to carry out drills and B-52 flights over
the peninsula.

This concerning pattern occurs in the absence of any regular engagement
between the US and North Korea. Should it persist, the risk of miscalculation by
either side will rise.

North Korea could read a future US move incorrectly and determine that an
imminent and existential threat to the regime exists - then choose to pre-empt
it. Or, if too many of its bluffs are called, Pyongyang may feel that its
rhetoric no longer deters. It may decide that more aggressive action is needed
to match its words.

[Guest Derek L]

Well we did have this thread:

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums/topic/22430-north-korea-can-blow-up-my-house-what-about-yours/

But like all threads.........

[Topaz]

Well, the new leader is in his twentys we know how their brains work, and he did go to school in the US, didn't he? If so, he knows how things are in the US and he just might do something stupid and hopeful his advisors can have some control over his decisions.

[DogOnPorch]

Is North Korea a loose cannon that needs to be tied? Or is it a cornered rat that will soon lash-out? Remember, NK sank a SK Corvette-Destroyer pretty much just because. Launching a missile...an attack on South Korea...air-to-air combat...anything and all is quite possible, unfortunately.

[Shady]

Well, the new leader is in his twentys we know how their brains work, and he did go to school in the US, didn't he? If so, he knows how things are in the US and he just might do something stupid and hopeful his advisors can have some control over his decisions.

No, he didn't go to school in the United States.

[-TSS-]

I'm all in for the insane leadership of North-Korea to be wiped out. Any decent person would be of that opinion, don't you agree?

People in North-Korea are eating grass just to survive while the Kim-Ils continue to live in luxury. If the west concocted an excuse of WMD*s to attack Iraq 10 years ago one should not be too hard to find another excuse to remove these filthy bastards of the government of North-Korea.

[bush_cheney2004]

I'm all in for the insane leadership of North-Korea to be wiped out. Any decent person would be of that opinion, don't you agree?

Sure....let Finland lead the way this time.

[DogOnPorch]

I'm all in for the insane leadership of North-Korea to be wiped out. Any decent person would be of that opinion, don't you agree?

People in North-Korea are eating grass just to survive while the Kim-Ils continue to live in luxury. If the west concocted an excuse of WMD*s to attack Iraq 10 years ago one should not be too hard to find another excuse to remove these filthy bastards of the government of North-Korea.

The Arab soldier and the average NK trooper are two different critters. Full belly or not.

[DogOnPorch]

Sure....let Finland lead the way this time.

Excellent troops. Kicked Russia's butt on a few occasions.

[-TSS-]

Sure....let Finland lead the way this time.

This is my humble concession that I agree whenever there is the case that something needs to be done in order to remove filthy dictators, unfortunately, it is the US who actually do the work of removing those dictators while us Europeans keep on moaning about what should be done.

[eyeball]

NK is China's bastard, the US isn't the only bastard spawning super-rogue out there besides which they only seem to know how to cock things up worse these days.

That said we should be doing a lot more to provoke China to take responsibility for the messes it leaves. As for our other best frienemies forever, the Russians, we should be cracking the whip under their noses to get their asses in gear about the abomination they created in Syria.

[GostHacked]

I'm all in for the insane leadership of North-Korea to be wiped out. Any decent person would be of that opinion, don't you agree?

You really all in? Can we expect you on the front lines?

[Guest Derek L]

And in today's news:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/31/us-korea-north-usa-f-idUSBRE92U09V20130331

U.S. F-22 stealth jets join South Korea drills amid saber-rattling

(Reuters) - The United States sent F-22 stealth fighter jets to South Korea on Sunday to join military drills aimed at underscoring the U.S. commitment to defend Seoul in the face of an intensifying campaign of threats from North Korea.

The advanced, radar-evading F-22 Raptors were deployed to Osan Air Base, the main U.S. Air Force base in South Korea, from Japan to support ongoing bilateral exercises, the U.S. military command in South Korea said in a statement that urged North Korea to restrain itself.

"(North Korea) will achieve nothing by threats or provocations, which will only further isolate North Korea and undermine international efforts to ensure peace and stability in Northeast Asia," the statement said.

Meanwhile, the North is preparing their missiles for a pre-emptive strike:

Edited April 1, 2013 by Derek L

[Guest Derek L]

NK is China's bastard, the US isn't the only bastard spawning super-rogue out there besides which they only seem to know how to cock things up worse these days.

That said we should be doing a lot more to provoke China to take responsibility for the messes it leaves. As for our other best frienemies forever, the Russians, we should be cracking the whip under their noses to get their asses in gear about the abomination they created in Syria.

And how would we provoke the Chinese to do that? Clearly the Chinese like having a sporadic pit-bull by their side to act as vocal distraction to the other Asian powers (and the United States) well they play their own game of Realpolitik with their neighbours………On the flip-side, if the North fell, and the Koreas were reunited, the next logical step would be the withdrawal of all US forces from mainland Asia, coupled with a cataclysmic hit to the South Korean economy, caused by the inclusion of the poverty stricken North, hence devaluing the new Korean currency……a net benefit to the Chinese, who have the South as one of their largest current trading partners in terms of high tech western imports…….

The Chinese would win either way regardless of the outcome, so why should they expend political capital on a nonexistent threat to themselves?

[eyeball]

And how would we provoke the Chinese to do that?

Trade sanctions obviously.

Clearly the Chinese like having a sporadic pit-bull by their side to act as vocal distraction to the other Asian powers (and the United States) well they play their own game of Realpolitik with their neighbours………On the flip-side, if the North fell, and the Koreas were reunited, the next logical step would be the withdrawal of all US forces from mainland Asia, coupled with a cataclysmic hit to the South Korean economy, caused by the inclusion of the poverty stricken North, hence devaluing the new Korean currency……a net benefit to the Chinese, who have the South as one of their largest current trading partners in terms of high tech western imports…….

The Chinese would win either way regardless of the outcome, so why should they expend political capital on a nonexistent threat to themselves?

Again and obviously, they need our resources. i.e. our trade. Yes, I realize our economy would take a hit but that's the nature of sacrifice when living up to one's oft-stated principles.

That said if money is the only principle at stake here then why not just say screw SK? According to you it sounds like they will be in any case.

[Guest Derek L]

Trade sanctions obviously.

Again and obviously, they need our resources. i.e. our trade. Yes, I realize our economy would take a hit but that's the nature of sacrifice when living up to one's oft-stated principles.

That said if money is the only principle at stake here then why not just say screw SK? According to you it sounds like they will be in any case.

You are aware of the result of the last major bout of trade sanctions imposed on an Asian power by the West right?

[eyeball]

Yes but we obviously cocked that up because we only did so to make our rich people richer. Not a very principled reason, wouldn't you agree?

[GostHacked]

I'd love to see the USA throw trade sanctions on China. That would be fun to watch.

[Guest Derek L]

Yes but we obviously cocked that up because we only did so to make our rich people richer. Not a very principled reason, wouldn't you agree?

Don’t get me wrong, I think an actual third kick at the can is inevitable, perhaps not in our lifetimes mind you, but will come about none the less………Perhaps there would be advantages to kick-off sooner rather then later……..Clearly the post war economic boom had a net benefit for the middle class in the West after the second war, perhaps by reducing today’s global economic competitors manufacturing and economic base to cinders would also have a economic benefit to North America’s “middle class” as well as the “rich”….

Would you be prepared for a negative reaction on the part of the Chinese if we poke them in their economic eye?

[Guest Derek L]

I'd love to see the USA throw trade sanctions on China. That would be fun to watch.

They could......wouldn't that help to solve the plight of the American "middle class"?

[Canuckistani]

WWIII would be like no other war before it - most of humanity wiped out. Not some happy economic boom for the "victor." So we'll have more and more proxy wars of one kind or another that keep things contained, I guess. Or we just surrender dominance to the Chinese and make them our new overlords.

[Guest Derek L]

WWIII would be like no other war before it - most of humanity wiped out. Not some happy economic boom for the "victor." So we'll have more and more proxy wars of one kind or another that keep things contained, I guess. Or we just surrender dominance to the Chinese and make them our new overlords.

Not necessarily, for the Chinese ability to contribute to “wiping out humanity” is rather meek when contrasted with the former Soviet Union, combined with the Obama administrations recent signal to expand National Missile Defence and the signing into law several months (National Defence Authorization Act ) ago a policy clarifying the legalities of a pre-emptive nuclear strike on China………Added to this Obama’s Pacific pivot and the rebasing of the majority United States Navy’s nuclear deterrent in the Pacific, a third world war with China is quite winnable without the perquisite loss of life that would have been associated with an exchange with the Soviets…….

The recent sabre rattling through the usage of the USAF’s B-2 bomber in a training exercise isn’t only for the North Koreans benefit……..Clearly put, it was a demonstration of the American’s ability to launch a indefensible (and without prior raid warning) decapitation strike on both leadership and nuclear weapons facilities of a potential adversary.

[Canuckistani]

How does winnable work with all that radiation around from a full nuclear exchange, even if one side is weaker here than the other? And, you're going by today's China, not the China of twenty years from now. But, even with what you describe, I think it would be a Pyrric victory, with the Russians becoming top dog of the plant by default. What's left of the planet, anyway.

[Guest Derek L]

How does winnable work with all that radiation around from a full nuclear exchange, even if one side is weaker here than the other? And, you're going by today's China, not the China of twenty years from now. But, even with what you describe, I think it would be a Pyrric victory, with the Russians becoming top dog of the plant by default. What's left of the planet, anyway.

It wouldn’t require a nuclear exchange as envisioned during the Cold War……The USAF via their B-2 force could wipe out the Chinese land based component of their nuclear arsenal without prior warning and the first signal being mushroom clouds in a remote area of central China……..The USN Navy has been continually tracking the minuscule Chinese sub based force since the 80s whenever it sorties out to sea, as such, said force is a Mk48 away from being crab food.

The inevitable fallout would be a fraction of what was associated with nuclear testing in the 50s……a short drive away from Las Vegas……..

[Canuckistani]

I don't pretend to know the ins and outs of it, but it sounds pretty Strangelovian to me. We'd better make sure we don't have a mineshaft gap.