Justin Trudeau will run for the Liberal Leadership

[Wild Bill]

Kraychik isn't the kind of poster you probably want to align with - even if you do admire his politics.

You might want to try August1991 - he's a well spoken conservative. If you want farther right then I suggest Argus, he's the thinking man's Kraychik.

For the zillionth time Michael, I am not a conservative! If anything, I am a Classic Liberal.

It's not my fault that modern liberals have drifted so far to the left that I cannot relate to them. I have no problem with their social values. I couldn't care less about gays getting married. Why should they be any happier than the rest of us?

However, with fiscal issues I am forced to align with the present Tories, if only by default.

I also believe very strongly that the rights of the individual should be paramount. That leaves me with no choice at all, except for a wasted vote to the Libertarians.

The only political party I ever embraced with enthusiasm was Reform, mostly for its populist streak. Imagine, a party that actually cared about how a member like me felt? True, I would need to convince a majority of others to get the party to make my ideas party policy but that was far more than any other party would do!

Anyhow, I don't know why I am yet again explaining this. Before the end of tomorrow someone else is going to assume I'm a conservative anyway.

These days, a conservative is defined as anyone not at least mildly socialist.

[Newfoundlander]

Trying to classify stances on social issues as right wing or left wing doesn't really work.

[Black Dog]

Except, Argus *isn't* a conservative.

I wonder if you've been able to find the time to articulate why you think that is. Last time the question was asked, you ran away.

Edited September 26, 2012 by Black Dog

[bleeding heart]

Trying to classify stances on social issues as right wing or left wing doesn't really work.

It's a pretty messy and confused game, you're right about that.

[madmax]

Except, Argus *isn't* a conservative.

Nor does he require a Violin or Wine.....

[Michael Hardner]

I wonder if you've been able to find the time to articulate why you think that is. Last time the question was asked, you ran away.

Great research piece there, thanks for that.

[Michael Hardner]

For the zillionth time Michael, I am not a conservative! If anything, I am a Classic Liberal.

It's not my fault that modern liberals have drifted so far to the left that I cannot relate to them. I have no problem with their social values. I couldn't care less about gays getting married. Why should they be any happier than the rest of us?

Hmmm... so you're not a conservative, yet you think liberals have drifted to the left ? But you don't have a problem with their social values ?

[WWWTT]

Bringing this debate back to Justin.

If Justin is seen as a last chance effort for the liberals to rebound then things must be worse off in their camp then what I previously thought.

I'll admit this turn of events is interesting.

WWWTT

[Mr.Canada]

If Justin cannot turn around the Liberal party then it's all over for them imo. The Liberals need to win seats back in Ontario, that is their only hope because they are dead in Quebec and always will be.

[madmax]

Prediction: Justin Trudeau steps aside before the Leader is elected.

[Wild Bill]

This doesn't make sense.

If, as you say, "things have drifted so far," then we're not talking about "the left" who "truly believe they are the centre."

We are talking about the centre, at some point, aren't we?

Same sex marriage is practically mainstream, now, in that a majority of Canadians apparently accept it.

So it's not "left." It was--the "left" were evidently ahead of the curve, more attuned with contemporary life--but now it is not. Now it's centrist, mainstream.

There are trends in society, some maybe conservative ones, some maybe liberal. But it's not static. Eventually, it just is, it's a normal and usual part of social life. At that point, it is mainstream.

If I understand you correctly, you are saying that there are no absolute definitions of left and right, conservative or liberal, but rather some sort of Bell curve, where you just plot what you see today and accept an arbitrary centre.

I don't agree with that. I use a dictionary. To me, there are absolutes. If I used your method I could have labeled a left and a right to Chairman Mao's Party Congress.

I'm not saying your definition is wrong, just that I could never accept it.

[scribblet]

Well, if Trudeau wins the leadership it could be a bonus for the CPC, cos he'll likely take some of the NDP votes from Quebec. Could ruin the NDP's chance to win.

[August1991]

Bringing this debate back to Justin.

Thank you. (Justin Trudeau! It's not really about me!)

I agree, MB. Mulcair IS in trouble! Young Trudeau will steal much more support from the NDP than the Tories.

And no doubt, many people are smiling in Langevin Block at the prospect of a Trudeau candidacy.

I've mentioned this before. I think the Liberals should forget about winning and concentrating just on surviving. Trudeau probably couldn't win an election but his sheer charisma might stop the Liberal slide.

Interesting perspective. But do you really think Trudeau Jnr is the man for the job?

IMV, the federal Liberals are a viable political party in a country divided by region, not ideology. But to succeed in the 21st century, the federal Liberals need money, and local polling. They have to identify their vote in all regions. But what do I know...

He only split the "left wing" vote.

Yes, Layton indeed split the left-wing vote (although it may be more accurate to call it the "anti-Harper" vote, rather than left-wing... ) And because of Layton vs Ignatieff, Harper won his first majority in 2011.

Trudeau Jnr as Liberal leader (vs Mulcair) would likely do the same for Harper in 2015.

Edited September 27, 2012 by August1991

[August1991]

If he can just stop the losses that would be enough. I'm betting he would do more than that and recover a respectable number of seats, especially in Quebec.

Sadly, this seems to be the core argument of those who favour Trudeau Jnr as federal Liberal leader.

Well, how would Justin Trudeau do in Quebec in a federal election?

Here's an idea: Very roughly, one third of voters in Quebec want a separate country, and one third want the status-quo. Another third want change, but are very tired of the arguments of the separatists.

Trudeau Jnr would get the status quo vote, and maybe a bit more. If you matched Charest's 2012 votes on a federal electoral map, you'd get an idea. It would be a weird four way race: BQ, PLC, NPD, CPC. Surprisingly, Harper would keep his 5-10 seats since they are the old Creditiste ridings. Trudeau would get Montreal, like Chretien did. The BQ and NPD would fight for the rest.

While the idea is a political curiousity in Quebec, Trudeau's father never faced a BQ.

----

Outside of Toronto, Montreal and parts of southern Ontario, I don't see Trudeau winning many seats. The federal Liberals need a viable candidate in Alberta, Saskatchewan and northern BC. Trudeau Jnr is not that guy.

Edited September 27, 2012 by August1991

[August1991]

Then I hear Trudeau say this on the radio:

“Thank you very much for all your interest,” he said at one point as he left a weekly meeting of Liberal MPs and senators.

“I’m pleased to hear all the buzz and all the interest in the Liberal party’s fortunes, but I have nothing to announce today. I will let you know when I have something to announce.”

Link

Justin is more Ted than Ted. Heck, he's more flakey than Ignatieff.

Turns out Michael Ignatieff was just visiting after all.

The former Liberal leader has accepted a job at Harvard University - the same stomping grounds wide-eyed Grits plucked him from seven years ago to return to Canada for a chance at becoming prime minister.

Toronto Sun Edited September 27, 2012 by August1991

[Wild Bill]

Sadly, this seems to be the core argument of those who favour Trudeau Jnr as federal Liberal leader.

Well, how would Justin Trudeau do in Quebec in a federal election?

Here's an idea: Very roughly, one third of voters in Quebec want a separate country, and one third want the status-quo. Another third want change, but are very tired of the arguments of the separatists.

Trudeau Jnr would get the status quo vote, and maybe a bit more. If you matched Charest's 2011 votes on a federal electoral map, you'd get an idea. It would be a weird four way race: BQ, PLC, NPD, CPC. Surprisingly, Harper would keep his 5-10 seats since they are the old Creditiste ridings. Trudeau would get Montreal, like Chretien did.

----

Outside of Toronto, Montreal and parts of southern Ontario, I don't see Trudeau winning many seats. The federal Liberals need a viable candidate in Alberta, Saskatchewan and northern BC. Trudeau Jnr is not that guy.

As I had said, August, it depends on what he needs to do. It's not likely he can win an election but if he can at least keep them from dying off and maybe even pick up a few more seats than they have at present, that would be better than what they have right now!

[August1991]

As I had said, August, it depends on what he needs to do. It's not likely he can win an election but if he can at least keep them from dying off and maybe even pick up a few more seats than they have at present, that would be better than what they have right now!

Good luck with that. Trudeau Jnr can't even commit.

[Newfoundlander]

It'd be interesting to see if he could attract some floor crossers.

[WWWTT]

Yes, Layton indeed split the left-wing vote (although it may be more accurate to call it the "anti-Harper" vote, rather than left-wing... ) And because of Layton vs Ignatieff, Harper won his first majority in 2011.

Actually Layton ran in the 2004 fed. election as NDP leader.

I guess that part doesn't fit in your picture,right?

WWWTT

[WWWTT]

Trudeau Jnr would get the status quo vote, and maybe a bit more. If you matched Charest's 2012 votes on a federal electoral map, you'd get an idea. It would be a weird four way race: BQ, PLC, NPD, CPC. Surprisingly, Harper would keep his 5-10 seats since they are the old Creditiste ridings. Trudeau would get Montreal, like Chretien did. The BQ and NPD would fight for the rest.

Here's a thought!

Maybe NDP support will slip a few seats in Quebec.

But NDP support will significantly strengthen in Ontario,the prairies,Atlantic Canada,BC and here's the cherry on the cake-what if NDP support strengthens in Alberta!!!

Say next election what would happen if one third of the seats went to NDP?

Where will that leave Justin Trudeau?

Where will that leave the liberals?

And where will that leave Quebec?

WWWTT

[WWWTT]

Well, if Trudeau wins the leadership it could be a bonus for the CPC, cos he'll likely take some of the NDP votes from Quebec. Could ruin the NDP's chance to win.

What about taking away votes from the conservative youth in the rest of Canada?

Better question is how much of a push will this give to the NDP?

WWWTT

[Wild Bill]

What about taking away votes from the conservative youth in the rest of Canada?

Better question is how much of a push will this give to the NDP?

WWWTT

Well, if you are going to deal in "what if", why not "What if the NDP wins a majority government?"

Or "what if the NDP wins over 300 seats?". You can "what if" anything but it is a better use of time to stick to what is probable.

[PIK]

Not to long ago trudeau talk about actually having a real job, he worked as a bartender but quit after 2 shifts because it was to tough.

[Michael Hardner]

Not to long ago trudeau talk about actually having a real job, he worked as a bartender but quit after 2 shifts because it was to tough.

Hmmm... link for this one ? Can't find it on Google.

[Topaz]

It's not like Justin is a stranger to politics and running for leadership will all depend on WHO is running and we don't know as yet. Justin may feel he's ready for party leader but I'm not sure if PMO is in his plans or Canadians. I would think when Canadians think about it that the NDP leader has the views of both Liberals and NDP plus the vast experience of a politicans and in these times, I would think the NDP would be a better choice for Canada. I'm not saying Justin wouldn't make a good PM but he needs a little more experience in the House, to be a better PM. One thing he would have to do is spend more time out west epecially Alberta.