International Elections

[dalitis]

SYRIZA and Golden Dawn will increase their share of the vote. Since the latter is a party no other party wants to have anything to do with they are heading for another gridlock.

The Golden Dawn party is playing on people's fears of immigrants. In some parts of Athens were elderly people are afraid to conduct their businesses like going to ATM's to withdraw money, the party has volunteered to give free "bodyguard-services" at request hoping that those people would remember the party at the polling booth as well.

What you are saying about the Golden Party is true, they are in fact doing the body-guard thing. Now to what extent that occurs I do not really know.

But latest polls show that support for them is diminishing. In post-elections polls, the only party that increases its support is the left-wing SYRIZA.

The reason for Golden Dawn's fall in support (at least for now) were 2 videos that were released in youtube. In one, the leader of the GD party went in a quite obscene far-right rant, and in the other, reporters that tried to cover a GD press conference were ordered to stand up for when the party leader entered the room. The GD bodyguards even gave a military command to the people present in order for them to stand up for the great leader.

For anyone who understands Greek, this is Michaloliakos, the leader of the neo-Nazi Golden Dawn:

This is the instance where the Golden Dawners demonstrated their fascist face:

[TheNewTeddy]

Lucky, polls have XA down. All parties are pretty well down except SYR which some polls have as high as 28%. There is a very good chance they'll win this new and current election, due June 17th, but the question is weather they'll be able to cobble together a government or not, as only DIM is really willing to sit with them without problem.

[-TSS-]

There are news of the Greek withdrawing all their money from the banks as it seems that the country will leave the euro and revert to the drachma the value of which will be devalued to almost worthless. Therefore the concrete notes and coins of euro will be hard currency.

[TheNewTeddy]

http://img.rasset.ie/0005f8aa-1024.jpg

Ireland Referendum Results

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

Danilo Medina has won the Presidential Election, 51% to 49% for Hipolito Mejia. The winner is "Liberal" while the loser is a "Social Democrat"

ALBANIA

Apparently this country tried to hold a convoluted non-direct election for President... but nobody seems to have the results of the first round. Meh.

SERBIA

Nikolic won, he was the "bad guy" from my earlier posts. Supposedly, he's turned in to a "Good guy" now, and supports things like freedom and Europe. We shall see.

LESOTHO

This is that blob-shaped country in the middle of South Africa.

The Sitting Prime Minister refused to resign, and so left his old party (LCD) and started a new one (DC).

DC won 48 seats, more than any other.

ABC (the opposition) won 30 seats, and

LCD (former gov) won 26

15 seats were won by other parties.

ABC and LCD agreed to form a coalition government, along with the 5 seat BNP, 3 seat PFD, and a 1 seat party.

LCD is seen as left while ABC is seen as right. Politics in many African countries, however, is dominated by personality, and this vote can be seen as a rejection of DC's leader and his attempt to cling on to power.

EGYPT

The big one. First round results.

Morsy - 24.78% - Conservative / Muslim Brotherhood

Shafik - 23.66% - Part of former Administration

These two are going to the second round.

Sabahi - 20.72% - Left wing

Fotouh - 17.47% - Former Muslim Brotherhood

Moussa - 11.13% - Part of the former Administration

Predicting the second round

Morsy should pick up Fotouh's votes.

Shafik should pick up Moussa's votes

Morsy - 42.25%

Shafik - 34.79%

I can not see many people voting for small parties going for a candidate of the old administration.

Morsy - 44.48%

Shafik - 34.79%

The old adminisration was sort of left leaning in a way, so I could see left-wingers streaming over there.

Shafik - 45.51%

Morsy - 44.48%

Remain - 10.00%

Some however would likely oppose a Shafik victory

Shafik - 45.51%

Morsy - 45.51%

Remain - 8.97%

The remainder would likely split

Shafik - 50.00%

Morsy - 50.00%

So in the end, I have no clue who the hell is going to win.

[TheNewTeddy]

Poll averaging and projections for the Greek election.

ND-74 or 124

SYR-74 or 124

PAS-37

ANE-19

DIM-19

KKE-14

XA-13

If ND or SYR wins, at these numbers, they'd need an additional 27 seats to form a majority, meaning PAS is likely to end up in any coalition agreement.

ND and SYR are up 10 points from last months' election

PAS and DIM are stable.

The 3 parties that refused coalition arrangements, ANE, KKE, XA, are all down by about 3 points each. Parties that did not make the threshold last time are also down.

An alliance of small parties (DX/DRASI/FS) may pass the threshold.

DISY from last election is running in an alliance with ND.

SYRIZA itself is an alliance of parties.

This makes calculating the 50 extra seats difficult, as alliances do not qualify, so the head party of either alliance needs to manage the win.

PASOK + the party that gets that extra 50 = majority in every poll since the call of the election.

Since coalition forming parties are up, Greeks seem to want a coalition. ND and PASOK have already sat in one, and are willing to do it again. If SYRIZA rejects a coalition with PASOK there'd likely be hell to pay, thus, it seems almost a certainty, at this time, that PASOK will be the Jr partner in a coalition, and the only thing left is to find out who wins.

Edited June 2, 2012 by TheNewTeddy

[TheNewTeddy]

http://www.thestar.com/news/world/article/1207213--greek-golden-dawn-member-s-arrest-ordered-after-assaults-on-left-wing-politicians-during-tv-debate?bn=1

The video in particular.

KKE is KKE of course.

HA is XA

N.Triangle. is ND

SYRIZA is E-looking-letter, Y. PIZ. A

[Topaz]

http://www.thestar.com/news/world/article/1207213--greek-golden-dawn-member-s-arrest-ordered-after-assaults-on-left-wing-politicians-during-tv-debate?bn=1

The video in particular.

KKE is KKE of course.

HA is XA

N.Triangle. is ND

SYRIZA is E-looking-letter, Y. PIZ. A

She was lucky he wasn't carrying a gun.

[-TSS-]

I wonder what were those women saying causing him to flip his lid in that manner.

[TheNewTeddy]

They said something to the effect of "We are protecting democracy (and you are undermining it)"

[TheNewTeddy]

Parties running in the coming Libyan election

Muslim Brotherhood (Justice and Development Party)

National Gathering (Brotherhood Lite)

Party of Reform and Development (Similar to Brotherhood)

Libyan Popular National Movement (Nationalistic)

Democratic Party (Liberal Democracy)

National Front Party (Old Opposition, founded 1981)

Ansar Al Horria (??? Conservative?)

Twasul (??? Pro Palestine?)

Social Democratic Party (??? Social Democratic?)

80 seats will be elected by party, while 120 will be elected from independents.

My guess is the party results will be:

35 Brotherhood

15 Similar to Brotherhood (one of the 2, or a combo of)

15 LPNM

15 All other smaller parties

Edited June 9, 2012 by TheNewTeddy

[jbg]

So in the end, I have no clue who the hell is going to win.

Whoever stuffs the ballot boxes knows exactly who will win.

[TheNewTeddy]

"word on the street" is that ND and PASOK will be able to form a government after this sunday's elections.

[TheNewTeddy]

No party is willing to sit with XA

KKE is not willing to sit with anyone

ANEL wants a centre-right government, that opposes the Memorandum (IE Austerity). No other party qualifies, and so they too, are not able to sit with anyone.

DIMAR wants to renegotiate the Memorandum, but wants to be a part of a government that SYRIZA is in, but due to reasons explained below, this is impossible, also making DIMAR not possible to sit in any coalitions.

SYRIZA wants to lead a government, for it to be a left government, and to tear up the Memorandum. Effectively, unless DIMAR or PASOK change their minds on the Memorandum, they will be unable to find coalition partners.

(ND, DISY), PASOK, (DX, DRASI, and FS) (Parties in brackets are contesting as a coalition) want to keep the memorandum.

DX, DRASI, and FS are contesting on a moderate platform and may break 3% and thus gain seats. Even if they do, ND-PASOK will likely have enough for a coalition, but they might invite these parties in to form some semblance of a "national government".

Also: fun fact.

K in Greek is pronounced like "Coo" and E in Greek like "Eh" meaning the Communists are, literally, "CooCoo, Eh?"

Edited June 16, 2012 by TheNewTeddy

[Jack Weber]

EGYPT

The big one. First round results.

Morsy - 24.78% - Conservative / Muslim Brotherhood

Shafik - 23.66% - Part of former Administration

These two are going to the second round.

Sabahi - 20.72% - Left wing

Fotouh - 17.47% - Former Muslim Brotherhood

Moussa - 11.13% - Part of the former Administration

Predicting the second round

Morsy should pick up Fotouh's votes.

Shafik should pick up Moussa's votes

Morsy - 42.25%

Shafik - 34.79%

I can not see many people voting for small parties going for a candidate of the old administration.

Morsy - 44.48%

Shafik - 34.79%

The old adminisration was sort of left leaning in a way, so I could see left-wingers streaming over there.

Shafik - 45.51%

Morsy - 44.48%

Remain - 10.00%

Some however would likely oppose a Shafik victory

Shafik - 45.51%

Morsy - 45.51%

Remain - 8.97%

The remainder would likely split

Shafik - 50.00%

Morsy - 50.00%

So in the end, I have no clue who the hell is going to win.

This Egyptian business has gotten quite interesting,if not for all the wrong reasons...It seems the Egyptian Supreme? Court has basically become the apparatchiks of the Egyptian military and DISALLOWED the democratic voice (such that it is) of the Egyptian people and revoked the results of the recent election of the Muslim Brotherhood ( with alot of help from the Islamofascist Selafists) in favour of....

Wait for it....

The Egyptian military.....

Meet the new boss....Same as the old boss.....

Edited June 16, 2012 by Jack Weber

[TheNewTeddy]

Romania held local elections recently.

41.7% - Social Liberal Union (Centre-Right)

14.8% - Democratic Liberal Party (Christian Democrat)

8.4% - People's Party - Dan Diaconescu (Personalist)

5.3% - Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania (Minority)

4.3% - Social Democratic Party (Social Democratic)

2.4% - National Union for the Progress of Romania (Left)

1.8% - Greater Romania Party (Hard Nationalist)

Note that there were 4 different ballots each voter had, this is the aggregate result of all 4.

[TheNewTeddy]

Upcoming

This sunday

Egypt (President, round 2)

France (Legislature, round 2)

Greece (National Parliament)

July 1st

Mexico (President)

Senegal (I forget)

July 7

Libya (National Parliament)

East Timor (I forget)

[jbg]

This Egyptian business has gotten quite interesting,if not for all the wrong reasons...It seems the Egyptian Supreme? Court has basically become the apparatchiks of the Egyptian military and DISALLOWED the democratic voice (such that it is) of the Egyptian people and revoked the results of the recent election of the Muslim Brotherhood ( with alot of help from the Islamofascist Selafists) in favour of....

Is populism ever a good idea?

[Jack Weber]

Is populism ever a good idea?

No!!!

Particularily,in this case,when it's Islamofascism dressed up ina cloak of civility backed up by backwards Islamofascists...

Then again,what was the uprising about last year if it wasn't to end military (and Ba'Athist) rule?

[cybercoma]

I don't know if anyone posted this yet. Admittedly, I haven't been following too closely. This is from @acoyne, who has posted a couple Greek exit polls:

ND 27.5-30.5, SYRIZA 27-30, PASOK 10-12, Ind Gr 6-7.5, Golden Dawn 6-7.5, Dem Left 5.5-6.5, KKE 5-6

[TheNewTeddy]

France:

The Socialists have won a majority (projected) more info later

Greece:

Turns out it's been slightly closer than the polls have suggested.

Follow Greek TV

http://www.skai.gr/player/tvlive

In Greek, but if you are like me and like to have a TV on in the background for fillersound, this is perfect, and you can enjoy the graphics

http://www.igraphics.gr/en/multimedia/2012/06/elections2012b

Awesome map. Remember that SYR is expected to go up later in the counting as votes from poor urban areas come in.

LAOS is closest to the 3% barrier while being below it, and are far below it at 1.5%, thus, don't expect any new parties in parliament.

Exit polls suggest that ND and PASOK will form a majority together... unless... there is a small chance, you see, of SYR winning the most votes, and if that happens, all breaks loose.

[TheNewTeddy]

Another exit poll showing ND winning the 50 seat bonus for coming first.

Only one exit poll so far showing SYR first, so I think that the exit polls are saying ND will come first. Every exit poll (even the one with SYR winning) has, If ND somehow managed the 50 seats despite losing, ND+PAS=Majority

[TheNewTeddy]

SYRIZA has conceded defeat.

ND and PASOK are to form a majority government in support of the bailout.

[TheNewTeddy]

Over in France.

Socialists have won about 315 seats in Parliament. (Counting ongoing in some seats) A Majority

The Leftists have won 13

Greens have won 18

2 Liberals won seats

One Independent was elected

226 members of the Conservatives won seats

2 members of the FN have won seats.

[-TSS-]

Isn't there in Mexico a very long interim period between the election and the elected president taking office? The election is now and the president-elect takes office in January?

[TheNewTeddy]

Egypt is fucked.

...I was actually asked by the moderators to not use that word. However, the thing is: I don't. ...In general. I only use that word when I feel there is the true need for it, and in this case, given how bad things have become in Egypt, I do feel there is a need for it.

If a moderator wants to edit this post, they are free, or if they want to suspend me for a few days for using it, they are again free; however I do not need a lecture or another PM. I'm aware that using this word is against the rules, and have decided to use it because I feel that no other word can truly express how bad things are.

Anyway; looks like the government will declare Shafik the winner when everyone else says Morsi won. The best part is neither person is supported by those who protested and caused these changes in the first place. Three-way civil war anyone?