International Elections

[-TSS-]

japan has had so many PM's in the recent years that I've had trouble keeping up. After all, they're still the world's third largest economy, therefore an important country.

[wyly]

japan has had so many PM's in the recent years that I've had trouble keeping up. After all, they're still the world's third largest economy, therefore an important country.

ya well they have that integrity(loss of "face") thing going on all the time...any scandal, humiliation, error in judgement, caught in a lie, etc and they resign...integrity obviously plays no part in our politics...

[TheNewTeddy]

The LDP continued to rotate though leaders during their time out of office, they are now lead by one of their various former PMs.

[TheNewTeddy]

Correction: the LDP had only one long-term leader in their term out of office, but switched back to Abe (a former MP) [pronounced AB-ay] in September of this year.

Also, more on South Korea.

Parliamentary elections were held in the spring. Results were as follows:

Red and Blue are the Conservative parties, while Yellow is the Liberal party. Purple is the Progressives. The Conservatives won 157 seats in this election, to the Liberals 127, Progressives 13, and Independents 3.

South Korea also rotates though Prime Ministers faster than Japan.

From 2008 to the present, the Conservatives have been in power, and 4 PMs have served.

Between 1998 and 2008, the Liberals were in power, and 18 PMs served.

From 1988 to 1998, with the Conservatives in power, 16 Prime Ministers served.

1988 marks the founding of the Sixth Republic

12 Conservative PMs served between 1982 and 1988

1982 marks the founding of the Fifth Republic

From 1980 to 1982, 2 Conservative PMs served.

From late 1979 to early 1980, South Korea was a Military Dictatorship due to a Coup D'Etat. Prior to this the Military played roles in picking the leader(s) of the country, and there were other times where democracy was not so democratic.

The last PM to serve more than 3 years was the one overthrown. The longest serving PM was in office from May 10th 1964 to December 20th 1970, 6 and a half years.

I'm also updating my Japan predictions to better match the level of media coverage given to each party and it's positive or negative tone.

LDP - 245

DPJ - 88

JRP - 80

JFP - 32

NKP - 16

YP - 12

JCP - 7

SDP - 0

LDP and NKP would have a majority and would indeed govern together as they have done in the past.

In Romania, the government (if the polls are right) should win about 200 of the 315 seats, or many more (up to 300) - I really don't fully understand the electoral system there. They are at 60%-65% in the polls though, and thus, will sweep.

Edited December 6, 2012 by TheNewTeddy

[-TSS-]

Those electoral maps can be very misleading. One party may control a tiny part of a country but may still hold the majority of votes as the density of population varies so much. However, South-Korea is extremely densely populated, all of it.

[TheNewTeddy]

SK also has PR that was not mapped. And all maps have this problem.

[TheNewTeddy]

LDP - 245

DPJ - 88

JRP - 80

JFP - 32

NKP - 16

YP - 12

JCP - 7

SDP - 0

Media projections from within Japan have come out since I made this post.

They project the same numbers I do. (DPJ between 90-60, LDP around 230, majority with NKP)

[TheNewTeddy]

More news from Japan since my last post only a few minutes ago. An earthquake - weaker than, but in the same spot as the Fukishima quake. On a day when the official Nuclear agency says it wants to restart the plants. Bad timing for pro-nuclear forces.

I've also modified my projection to better match the media average projection.

LDP - 260

DPJ - 87

JRP - 70

FJP - 25

NKP - 16

YP - 12

JCP - 7

SDP - 3

A bit more on the parties

DPJ

Democratic Party of Japan

Colours: Orange, Red

Position: Centre-Left

Leader: Noda (Current PM)

Canadian: Liberals (party analogy in Canada)

Nuke? Anti

GST? 10% (sales-taxes are a big issue this election)

TPP? Pro (Free-trade thingy in the pacific)

Main platform points: Social Security, Economy, Energy, Foreign Relations, National Security, and Political Reform (All mushy issues)

LDP

Liberal Democratic Party

Colours: Green, Blue

Position: Centre-right

Leader: Abe (Former PM)

Canadian: Conservatives / old PC

Nuke? mum

GST? 5% (current levels)

TPP? Anti

Main platform points: Foreign affairs (And other issues that attract less attention)

JFP

Japan Future Party

Colours: Green

Position: Centrist to Moderate Left, pro-Green

Leader: Kada (She is a current Governor, not running for a federal seat)

Canadian: Green Party of Canada (Harris-May era)

Nuke? Anti

GST? 5%

TPP? Anti

Main platform points: Not being either of the big 2 parties.

JRP

Japan Restoration Party

Colours: Green

Position: Right-wing

Leader: Ishihara (Former Gov)

Canadian: Reform Party

Nuke? Pro

GST? 11%

TPP? Conditionally

Main platform points: Nationalism and Populism

YP

Your Party

Colours: Red, Blue

Position: Centre-Right

Leader: Watanabe

Canadian: Uh... Not really close to anything we have.

Nuke? Anti

GST? 5%

TPP? Pro

Main platform points: Populist Reforms.

NKP

New Kōmeitō Party

Colours: Red

Position: Socially Conservative

Leader:

Canadian: CHP

Nuke? Anti

GST?

TPP?

Main platform points: Social Order, Economic Growth

Edited December 7, 2012 by TheNewTeddy

[Bryan]

Those electoral maps can be very misleading. One party may control a tiny part of a country but may still hold the majority of votes as the density of population varies so much. However, South-Korea is extremely densely populated, all of it.

Those are electoral ridings though. By that map you can easily see the 'red' party (Saenuri) has the most votes in the most number of ridings.

I like the idea that the ruling party regularly changes who the PM is in South Korea. In recent times at least, our leaders tend to hang on way too long in good times, usually relinquishing power only if it looks like their popularity was waning.

[TheNewTeddy]

Map of India's last election

Current polling based projections for other countries:

Germany

257 - Conservatives

192 - Socialists

100 - Greens

49 - Ex Communists

0 - Liberals

0 - Pirates

Traditional Socialist-Green coalition would not have enough seats for a majority.

United Kingdom

354 - Labour

254 - Conservative

42 - All Others:

12 - SNP (Scottish Separatist)

10 - DUP (Northern Ireland / NI Unionist)

6 - Sinn Fien (NI Separatist)

6 - Liberal Democrat

3 - Plaid Cymru (Welsh Separatist)

2 - SDLP (NI Labour)

1 - RESPECT (Socialist)

1 - Green

1 - Speaker

0 - UKIP

This is an off hand projection I've made based on projections from others.

[TheNewTeddy]

oops

accidentally blanked.

Edited December 13, 2012 by TheNewTeddy

[Hudson Jones]

Fantastic information. Thanks.

[TheNewTeddy]

The Incumbent in Ghana has increased his lead slightly as votes continue to be counted.

Additional polls from South Korea show the Conservative candidate for President has retained her lead.

Japan's LDP seems to be gaining support due to their new found conservative policies. They want to turn Japan's military into a real military, stop allowing China and Korea a veto over history textbooks, and to take back an apology the country made in 1993 under it's first non-LDP government over the use of "comfort women" (I guess they are not sorry??)

edit

And no, you wont find any of that on wikipedia. I also follow media reports.

Edited December 9, 2012 by TheNewTeddy

[TheNewTeddy]

Mahama appears to have won slightly over 50% of the votes in a come-from-behind-during-counting victory. Mahama's Socialist party is also leading in the counting of Parliamentary seats.

84 - NDC - Socialist

79 - NPP - Conservative

2 - Others

110 - Undeclared

Romania

maps. House:

Senate:

Red is the governing coalition, Green is the Hungarian party, and Blue is the Conservatives while Purple are the Populists. If current trends continue the end result should be:

270 - Government

25 - Conservatives

15 - Hungarians

5 - Populists

With a similar share of seats in the Senate.

Note that the government itself is a coalition of 3 parties. The Social Democrats, the Progressives, and the Conservatives. The latter are socially conservative; it's economic policies are more in line with the left.

No change in South Korea.

In Japan the polls continue the trends as they already exist. Projection adjusted to as follows:

260 - LDP - Conservative

80 - DPJ - Liberal

77 - JRP - Reform

63 - Others:

25 - FJP - Moderate and Progressive

16 - NKP - Religious (Buddhist)

12 - YP - Populist...ish

7 - JCP - Communists

3 - SDP - Social Democrats

Edited December 10, 2012 by TheNewTeddy

[-TSS-]

Indeed, Ghana has always been considered as some kind of a pioneer in democracy in Africa.

[TheNewTeddy]

Indeed, Ghana has always been considered as some kind of a pioneer in democracy in Africa.

Which is the only reason I bother to follow it really. Current counts have the Parliamentary election tied 86-86 with 2 Others.

In Romania (the maps should have auto-updated)

House

266 - Socialists

23 - Conservatives

14 - Hungarians

4 - Populists

8 - Undeclared

Senate

118 - Socialists

7 - Hungarians

6 - Conservatives

0 - Populists

6 - Undeclared

(Note that these numbers come from simply counting the non-red areas on the map and subtracting the total number of seats.)

Japan:

It should be noted that each of the major parties has "Factions". These as, in short, as follows:

LDP

Decades of unbroken governance allowed for strong inner-party factions to grow.

LIBERAL - This faction has split in two recently over Keynesian policies. It is more moderate. It ruled from the 60's to the 90's.

DEMOCRATIC - This faction currently holds power, and is the more Conservative and conservative of the two.

DPJ

Merger after Merger after Merger to create this party left inner-party cleaves.

SOCIALIST - These are those who left the old Socialist Party of Japan

LIBERAL - Think of our Liberals.

MODERATES - Centrists and the such.

EX LDP - This group is a right-wing (within the party anyway)

CONSERVATIVE - The current Prime Minister leads this faction.

What is important to know is that just about every DPJ member in a "safe seat" this election is either EX LDP or CONSERVATIVE

With the rise of the conservatives in the LDP, the new Reform-like JRP, and a right-wing rump expected to be left of the DPJ, the end result of this election is known.

A huge victory for conservative forces.

Edited December 11, 2012 by TheNewTeddy

[TheNewTeddy]

A little history of elections in Japan.

1993

Just like here, and in a places like Italy, the elections in and around 1993 saw the party system radically change.

243 - Opposition (8 party coalition)

223 - LDP

15 - Communist

30 - Independent

1996

During the previous term, the Socialists split in half, and half switched sides and allied with the LDP A few of the opposition parties allied in the NFP.

239 - LDP

156 - NFP

105 - Others

2000

The DPJ as we know it came to be with a merger with the NFP.

233 - LDP

127 - DPJ

120 - Others

2003

The DPJ won the largest share by a single united opposition party since the 50s.

237 - LDP

177 - DPJ

66 - Others

2005

Snap election called over the issue of private post. The government won.

296 - LDP

113 - DPJ

71 - Others

2009

First loss by the LDP to a unified opposition party since the war.

308 - DPJ

119 - LDP

53 - Others

What may be important to know is what happened prior to the big 1993 mess.

1990

The last in the line of similar elections. The Japan Socialist Party continued it's seeminly never-ending stint in the opposition.

275 - LDP

136 - JSP

101 - Others

1986

A strong challenge by the centre-left (86 seats)

300 - LDP

85 - JSP

127 - Others

1983

A slightly less strong challenge by the centre-left (107 seats)

250 - LDP

112 - JSP

149 - Others

1980

Caused by a rebels wthin the government. Government increased it's majority. Centre-left took 80 seats.

284 - LDP

107 - JSP

120 - Others

1979

LDP fails to capture a majority. Centre-left took 98 seats.

248 - LDP

107 - JSP

156 - Others

1976

LDP hit by scandal. It was during this parliament various centre-left forces became a bit more popular, but the fact the centre-left vote was split among many different parties did not help whatsoever.

260 - LDP

124 - JSP

127 - Others

1972

The last "good" election by the Communists (40 seats)

284 - LDP

118 - JSP

89 - Others

1969

The old Komeito party did well (47 seats)

300 - LDP

90 - JSP

96 - Others

1967

Good ole two-party election.

280 - LDP

141 - JSP

75 - Others

1963

Only 4 parties won seats, the main 2, the Communists, and the centre-left DSP.

294 - LDP

144 - JSP

29 - Others

1960

Birth of the DSP, centrist rebels from the JSP. The DSP would go on to form the core of the DPJ many decades later.

300 - LDP

144 - JSP

23 - Others

1958

Ah, simpler times.

298 - Liberal-Democrats

167 - Socialists

1 - Communist

1 - Independent

1955

Things were a bit complicated back then.

185 - Democrats

114 - Liberals

(guess what happened with these two parties)

89 - Left-wing Socialists

67 - Right-wing Socialists

2 - Communists

10 - Others

And it goes on from there.

Edited December 11, 2012 by TheNewTeddy

[-TSS-]

In some Central-European countries the national minorities have a quota reserved for them in parliaments.

[TheNewTeddy]

Ghana

Final results for the Presidential votes are as follows.

John Mahama - Social Democrat - 5,574,761

Nana Akufo-Addo - Conservative - 5,248,898

All the other candidates combined - 171,603

Total number of invalid ballots cast - 251,720

The losing candidate is debating a court challenge but has ruled out violence.

In Parliament:

120 - Socialists

94 - Conservatives

3 - Others

58 - Undeclared

Romania

It seems the election system has elements of proportionality that I was not aware of.

House

273 - Socialists (158 Socialists, 102 Left-Liberals, 13 Social-Conservatives)

56 - Conservatives (52 Right-Liberals, 3 Democrats, 1 Pesants)

47 - Populists

18 - Hungarians

18 - Various Ethnic Minorities

Senate

122 - Socialists (63 Socialists, 51 Left-Liberals, 8 Social-Conservatives)

24 - Conservatives (22 Right-Liberals, 1 Democrat, 1 Peasant)

21 - Populists

9 - Hungarians

Japan

Updated projection to better match current trends in polling:

260 - LDP - Conservative

94 - DPJ - Liberal

70 - JRP - Reform

56 - Others:

19 - NKP - Religious (Buddhist)

15 - FJP - Moderate and Progressive

12 - YP - Populist...ish

7 - JCP - Communists

3 - SDP - Social Democrats

[TheNewTeddy]

South Korea

More polls and more of the same. Park looks set to win. I'll thus remove this from my "follow close" and focus on Japan and elections coming up next month.

[TheNewTeddy]

Upcoming elections:

15th - http://en.wikipedia....eferendum,_2012 Egypt Referendum

16th http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2012 JAPAN

16th - http://en.wikipedia....elections,_2012 Venezula

17th - http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2012 Bermuda

19th - http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2012 South Korea*

12th - http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2013 Czech (President)

20th - http://en.wikipedia....eferendum,_2013 Austria Referendum

20th - http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2013 Lower Saxony (Germany)*

22nd - http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2013 ISRAEL

Countries in ALLCAPS will get focus by me, while those with an asterisk* after them will get a "minor focus" (similar to Romania or Ghana)

Other big elections this coming year

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_German_federal_election GERMANY

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Australian_federal_election AUSTRALIA

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Icelandic_parliamentary_election,_2013 Iceland*

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebanese_general_election,_2013 Lebanon*

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nepalese_Constituent_Assembly_election,_2013 Nepal*

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistani_general_election,_2013 Pakistan*

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestinian_general_election,_2013 Palestine*

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zimbabwean_constitutional_referendum,_2013 Zimbabwe Referendum

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zimbabwean_presidential_election,_2013 Zimbabwe Presidential

Edited December 13, 2012 by TheNewTeddy

[-TSS-]

It was news to me that Austria still has a conscription. I wonder why. It is surrounded by friendly NATO-countries. Well, perhaps that the reason why they are proposing to end it.

[TheNewTeddy]

red=conscription

Frankly, I support it. Teach people some discipline.

Edited December 14, 2012 by TheNewTeddy

[-TSS-]

I can see Greece still has conscription. Given the economic woes of that country, that institution is the first thing they should throw away. Trust me, the Turks aren't gonna invade you even if you close down your army.

[TheNewTeddy]

Egypt starts voting on it's constitution today. There are three basic groups of people who will decide the results:

Those who are Anti-Morsi

These folks generally are voting against the deal.

Pro-Morsi Conservatives

These folks love the constitution and are voting for it.

Folks who want stability

These people, many of whom are Liberal, are going to be voting for the deal as well.

Japan (241 needed for majority)

Updated projection to better match current trends in polling:

255 - LDP - Conservative

99 - DPJ - Liberal

64 - JRP - Reform

62 - Others:

21 - NKP - Religious (Buddhist)

15 - FJP - Moderate and Progressive

14 - YP - Populist...ish

8 - JCP - Communists

4 - SDP - Social Democrats

Smaller parties gain 1 or 2 each due to high undecided rates (if they are undecided about the big guys, they may go small) JRP loses more seats due to the fact that they seem to be performing better among PR voters than among district voters, while the DPJ gains seats for the opposite reason.

EDIT

Adjusted again due to more information. LDP seems to be sweeping in the non-PR vote, and the little guys are doing even better than I have above.

280 - LDP - Conservative

74 - DPJ - Liberal

61 - JRP - Reform

65 - Others:

23 - NKP - Religious (Buddhist)

15 - FJP - Moderate and Progressive

15 - YP - Populist...ish

8 - JCP - Communists

4 - SDP - Social Democrats

There are those who think LDP+NKP (usual allies) will get a super-majority of 330 seats. This would enable them to over-ride any veto from the upper house. I however do not see it. When the undecideds are this big of a fraction, they usually do not break for any one party (though Quebec and Alberta have proven that this can indeed be the case from time to time) The better the LDP sweeps the non-PR ridings, the worse DPJ will do, as that is where they need to make their gains.

Edited December 15, 2012 by TheNewTeddy