International Elections

[TheNewTeddy]

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/

Dunno if the polls have closed yet, or, close very soon, but the media coverage is getting started. Live coverage here.

Don't worry if you don't have time to follow, I will keep you all updated! Current reports:

EXIT POLLS:

275-310 LDP

55-77 DPJ

40-61 - JRP

20-28 - NKP

40-60 - Others

[TheNewTeddy]

Current results (these are hard to find as they are all in Japanese!)

LDP - 192

DPJ - 32

JRP - 31

NKP - 24

YPJ - 11 (Also called YP)

CPJ - 4

TPJ - 4 (Also called FPJ)

SDP - 1

IND - 1

YTC - 180 (Yet To Come)

The YTC happens to equal Proportional Representation. Seems as though the above are the results of the ridings. I will thus calculate the final result myself... but again, all this data is Japanese, so it takes a bit of figuring.

Until then, here's a map!

Red = LDP

Blue = DPJ

Dark Yellow = NKP

Light Yellow = JRP

EDIT - Seems some of the PR seats are indeed being counted, as seen on the right-hand side of the map.

Also, according to this live coverage, the biggest problem with the DPJ was flip-flopping. In particular, proposing a policy, implementing it, seeing it does not work, and cancelling it. Needless to say, this was unpopular.

Edit

Breakdown of current results by electoral method

RIDINGS

LDP - 144

DPJ - 7

NKP - 7

JRP - 3

YPJ - 3

TPJ - 1

IND - 1

PROPREP

LDP - 48

JRP - 28

DJP - 25

NKP - 17

YPJ - 8

CPJ - 4

SDP - 1

IMPORTANT NOTES!!!

241 for Majority

320 for Supermajority (Constitutional Changes)

NKP is expected to sit in coalition with the LDP even if the LDP wins 320 seats

Current upper house:

LDP - 83

NKP - 19

NRP - 5 (conservative and nationalist)

GOV - 107 (new government already holds these in an upper-house coalition)

DPJ - 106

YPJ - 11

JCP - 6

SDP - 4

PNP - 3 (protectionist, social conservative, populist)

IND - 5

122 needed for majority. 162 seats needed for a supermajority. (81 can stop a supermajority)

Edited December 16, 2012 by TheNewTeddy

[TheNewTeddy]

"Live" results (I will edit in updates)

Party - Results (colour on map)

DPJ - 44 (blue) Democrats

LDP - 272 (red) Liberal-Democrats

TPJ - 7 (cyan) Tomorrow/Future Party of Japan

NKP - 27 (dark yellow) Komeito

JRP - 42 (yellow) Japan Restoration Party

CPJ - 6 (purple) Communist

YPJ - 12 (orange) Your Party

SDP - 1 (Dark Green) Social Democrats

NPP - 1 (pinkish purple) New Party People

NPD - 1 (green) New Party Daichi

JNP - 0 (Other Orange) Japan New Party

NPR - 0 (Light Green) New Party Reform

HRP - 0 (Light Purple) Happiness Realization Party

FAC - 0 (Greyish) Factions

IND - 4 (sky blue) Non-Party

YTC - 63 (Dark Grey) Yet to call

JRP has won the Tokyo Governorship.

CHECK BELOW FOR MORE UP-TO-DATE LIVE RESULTS.

Edited December 16, 2012 by TheNewTeddy

[TheNewTeddy]

Current standings

The new government will have a 2/3rds majority

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/senkyo/index.html#

Since the election is thus "over" my updates to this chart will become more rare. Check the above link for live results.

- - - - - Riding PropRep - - - - - Total

DPJ - - - 26 - - - 29 - - - DPJ - - - 55

LDP - - 236 - - - 55 - - - LDP - - 291

TPJ - - - 2 - - - - 6 - - - - TPJ - - - 8

NKP - - - 9 - - - 20 - - - NKP - - - 29

JRP - - - 14 - - - 37 - - - JRP - - - 51

CPJ - - - 0 - - - 8 - - - CPJ - - - - 8

YPJ - - - 3 - - - 13 - - - YPJ - - - 16

SDP - - - 1 - - - 1 - - - SDP - - - 2

NPP - - - 1 - - - 0 - - - NPP - - - 1

NPD - - - 0 - - - 1 - - - NPD - - - 1

JNP - - - 0 - - - - 0 - - - JNP - - - 0

NPR - - - 0 - - - 0 - - - NPR - - - 0

HRP - - - 0 - - - 0 - - - HRP - - - 0

FAC - - - 0 - - - 0 - - - FAC - - - 0

IND - - - 5 - - - 0 - - - IND - - - 5

YTC - - - 3 - - 10 - - YTC - - - 13

IF IN CANADA (308 seats in each section - for comparison)

- - - - - Riding PropRep - - - - - Total

DPJ - - - 27 - - - 50 - - - DPJ - - - 35

LDP - - 242 - - - 94 - - - LDP - - 187

TPJ - - - 2 - - - - 10 - - - - TPJ - - - 5

NKP - - - 9 - - - 34 - - - NKP - - - 19

JRP - - - 14 - - - 63 - - - JRP - - - 33

CPJ - - - 0 - - - 14 - - - CPJ - - - - 5

YPJ - - - 3 - - - 22 - - - YPJ - - - 10

SDP - - - 1 - - - 2 - - - SDP - - - 1

NPP - - - 1 - - - 0 - - - NPP - - - 1

NPD - - - 0 - - - 2 - - - NPD - - - 1

JNP - - - 0 - - - - 0 - - - JNP - - - 0

NPR - - - 0 - - - 0 - - - NPR - - - 0

HRP - - - 0 - - - 0 - - - HRP - - - 0

FAC - - - 0 - - - 0 - - - FAC - - - 0

IND - - - 5 - - - 0 - - - IND - - - 3

YTC - - - 3 - - 17 - - YTC - - - 8

Frankly, this election is the biggest argument for the Japanese election system of Parallel PR that I've seen yet. Without PR this would have been a bigger-than-Mulroney landslide with the Opposition crushed into dust. With 'standard' PR, this would have been a minority government without the moral authority to govern. With the combined Japanese system, this is a Majority with a divided but robust opposition.

(may not add to 308 due to rounding errors)

Edited December 16, 2012 by TheNewTeddy

[TheNewTeddy]

My Coverage of the Japan election ends.

Notes:

The LDP has won a majority of ridings in all but two areas. One is the small 3 seat Yamanshi area, the other is the large city of Osaka. In Osaka they nabbed 3 seats, combined to 4 for their ally the NKP (nearly half of the NKP's total riding victories) and 12 for the JRP (remember, the JRP only won 14 ridings)

The LDP has won the PR vote in every area except the Kinki region (which contains Osaka) where the JRP edged them out by 1 seat.

The LDP, DPJ, JRP, and NKP have all won at least 1 PR seat in all PR areas of Japan. YPJ has won PR seats in all except the 3 smallest areas.

DPJ has fallen behind JRP in most of the regions, and behind the NKP in some.

My estimate of the popular vote given the PR seats:

LDP - 33%

JRP - 22%

DPJ - 17%

NKP - 12%

YPJ - 8%

TJP - 3%

There are, however, two ballots voters are given. One for PR and one for the ridings. My estimate of the ridings popular vote is as follows:

LDP - 51%

DPJ - 17%

JRP - 12%

NKP - 10%

YPJ - 6%

TJP - 5%

This averages to:

LDP - 42%

JRP - 19%

DPJ - 15%

NKP - 11%

YPJ - 7%

TJP - 4%

You can expect the final results to be within 1:5 of this.

With just 6 seats left to go, the near-final results are:

293 - LDP

30 - NKP

323 - NEW GOVERNMENT (GOV)

56 - DPJ

1 - NPP

57 - OLD GOVERNMENT (OPO)

52 - JRP

18 - YPJ

8 - TJP

8 - CPJ

2 - SDP

1 - NPD

5 - Independents

6 - Undeclared

----

Summary:

323 - GOV (Conservative)

57 - OPO (Liberal)

52 - JRP (Reform)

42 - ALL OTHERS (Populist, Communist, Socialist, Liberal, etc)

6 - Undeclared

Edited December 16, 2012 by TheNewTeddy

[-TSS-]

I don't think Morsi will give up even if people reject the new constitution.

[TheNewTeddy]

10 of Egypt's 27 provinces have gone to the polls over the new proposed Constitution. Results suggest between 55% and 57% have voted yes. A second round takes place next week (the day after the world ends) but the results are not expected to be much different.

[TheNewTeddy]

Fun with numbers!

What if Canada had the same electoral system as Japan? Here is the 2011 results, presuming we had 100 PR seats. In terms of the PR seats the parties would have gained the following.

CPC - 3 from the Atlantic, 4 from Quebec, 17 from Ontario, 4 from the Prairies, 6 from Alberta, and 6 from BC

NDP - 3 from the Atlantic, 10 from Quebec, 10 from Ontario, 2 from the Prairies, 2 from Alberta, and 4 from BC

LIB - 2 from the Atlantic, 3 from Quebec, 10 from Ontario, 1 from the Prairies, 1 from Alberta, and 2 from BC

GRN - 0 from the Atlantic, 1 from Quebec, 1 from Ontario, 0 from the Prairies, 1 from Alberta, and 1 from BC

BLQ - 0 from the Atlantic, 6 from Quebec, 0... etc etc

The end PR seat results:

40C - 31N - 19L - 4G - 6B

Added to our FPTP, the end results would be as follows:

207C - 133N - 53L - 5G - 10B

A Majority with a strong opposition.

JAPAN update

Summary:

325 - GOV (Conservative)

58 - OPO (Liberal)

54 - JRP (Reform)

43 - ALL OTHERS (Populist, Communist, Socialist, Liberal, etc)

ALL SEATS IN

Edited December 16, 2012 by TheNewTeddy

[TimG]

What if Canada had the same electoral system as Japan? Here is the 2011 results, presuming we had 100 PR seats. In terms of the PR seats the parties would have gained the following.

Japan has two houses. There is no majority in the upper house. The government will have a tough time getting laws passed. Edited December 16, 2012 by TimG

[TheNewTeddy]

In Venezuela, the Government has won most of the provincial governorships.

JAPAN

Green = LDP // Light Green = JRP // Yellow = NKP // Red = DPJ // Black = Communist // Blue = YP //

FPTP - Party - Popvote

237 - LDP - 43.01%

9 - NKP - 1.49%

246 - GOV - 44.49%

27 - DPJ - 22.81%

14 - JRP - 11.64%

4 - YP - 4.71%

2 - TPJ - 5.02%

1 - SDP - 0.76%

1 - PNP - 0.20%

0 - JCP - 7.88%

0 - NPN - 0.53%

0 - Oth - 0.28%

5 - Ind - 1.69%

PR - Party - Popvote

57 - LDP - 27.79%

22 - NKP - 11.90%

79 - GOV - 39.69%

40 - JRP - 20.50%

30 - DPJ - 15.49%

14 - YP - 8.77%

8 - JCP - 6.17%

7 - TPJ - 5.72%

1 - SDP - 2.38%

1 - NPN - 0.58%

0 - PNP - 0.12%

0 - Oth - 0.59%

And the Combined totals (Including a raw addition of the two popvote figures, in millions and %age

294 - LDP - 35.39% - 42,267,766

31 - NKP - 6.70% - 8,002,355

325 - GOV - 42.09% - 50,270,121

57 - DPJ - 19.14% - 22,867,426

54 - JRP - 16.08% - 19,204,581

18 - YP - 6.74% - 8,052,830

9 - TPJ - 5.37% - 6,416,280

8 - JCP - 7.02 - 8,389,448

2 - SDP - 1.57% - 1,872,552

1 - NPN - 0.55% - 662,452

1 - PNP - 0.16% - 188,032

0 - Oth - 0.43% - 516,262

5 - Ind - 0.84% - 1,006,468

And a few notes:

You may read that the LDP has won a 2/3rds majority on 28% of the vote. Check the above figures. This is only true if you stretch what "truth" means. The PR vote makes it quite clear I say; people knew the LDP and NKP (which have sat together almost since the NKP was formed) would ally, and thus decided to mark their protest by voting NKP rather than LDP. Their combined vote is within range of their combined FPTP vote.

The LDP doubled its seat total this election. NKP increased its seat total by 1/3rd.

DPJ lost 251 or 173 seats, depending on if you count the defectors. If you do, they were reduced to 18% of their old total, or compared to the current Canadian government, the same as Harper winning only 30 seats next election.

The JRP had a few lawmakers already from defections. They gained 43 seats, increasing their total to 54 from 11.

TPJ meanwhile had a large number of DPJ defectors (61 of them) but only managed 9 seats. This means they were reduced to 15%. The defectors thus did even worse than the DPJ did.

LDP leader Abe is expected to become Prime Minister

DPJ leader Noda resigned as leader, but managed to hold on to his FPTP seat, which he had been expected to lose.

Edited December 17, 2012 by TheNewTeddy

[TheNewTeddy]

Upcoming elections:

DECEMBER

17th - http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2012 Bermuda

19th - http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2012 South Korea*

JANUARY

12th - http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2013 Czech (President)

20th - http://en.wikipedia....eferendum,_2013 Austria Referendum

20th - http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2013 Lower Saxony (Germany)*

22nd - http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2013 ISRAEL

Countries in ALLCAPS will get focus by me, while those with an asterisk* after them will get a "minor focus" (similar to Romania or Ghana)

Other big elections this coming year

http://en.wikipedia....ederal_election GERMANY

http://en.wikipedia....ederal_election AUSTRALIA

http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2013 Iceland*

http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2013 Lebanon*

http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2013 Nepal*

http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2013 Pakistan*

http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2013 Palestine*

http://en.wikipedia....eferendum,_2013 Zimbabwe Referendum

http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2013 Zimbabwe Presidential

---

Egypt's official results are out.

56.5% yes

43.5% no

In SK a poll has been put out showing Moon ahead of Park for the first time. The election is this Wednesday. The gap between them is 0.4 points and my money is still on Park.

Japan results at bottom of last page.

Edited December 17, 2012 by TheNewTeddy

[-TSS-]

If for nothing else, just for the sake of a hope for some stability it is good that the constitution in Egypt was passed.

[TheNewTeddy]

In Bermuda the opposition Conservatives have won a majority securing 19 seats, to Labour's 17.

[TheNewTeddy]

Edited December 18, 2012 by TheNewTeddy

[TheNewTeddy]

Conservative Park Geun-hye has won the Presidential election in South Korea by a margin of 52 to 48 over Liberal Moon Jae-in. She becomes the first female to hold that office.

[-TSS-]

She's the daughter of the former military ruler.

[TheNewTeddy]

South Korea election

Red = Liberal

Blue = Conservative

Darker colour = over 80% of the vote

[-TSS-]

I wonder is there some sort of strange nostalgia among the older folks for the times of the military dictatorship. One should not think so as South Korea today is so much more prosperous a country than 20-30 years ago. Spain springs to mind as a comparison where some people hanker back to the days of Franco.

[jbg]

If for nothing else, just for the sake of a hope for some stability it is good that the constitution in Egypt was passed.

I don't think the military will stand for it though. Or the people.

[TheNewTeddy]

I wonder is there some sort of strange nostalgia among the older folks for the times of the military dictatorship. One should not think so as South Korea today is so much more prosperous a country than 20-30 years ago. Spain springs to mind as a comparison where some people hanker back to the days of Franco.

Most of the non-dark areas were won by what I'd call "normal" margins. It is only the dark areas where huge majorities were racked up; so I don't think it has much to do with that.

[TheNewTeddy]

Bermuda Election Map

[-TSS-]

Bermuda itself is a very tiny place, therefore each of those constituencies must be easily walkable and the candidates get to meet each and every voter in their constituencies.

[TheNewTeddy]

In Egypt, 70% of voters in the second round have approved of the new constitution. The final results, combined, thus should be somewhere in the area of 60-40 or 65-35 for the naitonwide total in favour of the new constitution.

[TheNewTeddy]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Italian_general_election

New election

(projections coming shortly)

[jbg]

In Egypt, 70% of voters in the second round have approved of the new constitution. The final results, combined, thus should be somewhere in the area of 60-40 or 65-35 for the naitonwide total in favour of the new constitution.

A boycotted election has no legitimacy.