Federal Election Polls

[cybercoma]

You never know. It's not over until it's over.

[blueblood]

You never know. It's not over until it's over.

Its 10 yrs and people wanted change. You can just tell by watching the news etc. it feels like dions campaign.

[Smallc]

Its 10 yrs and people wanted change. You can just tell by watching the news etc. it feels like dions campaign.

Don't you mean Paul Martin?

[Shady]

Mulcair's gotta be pretty disappointed. After the last election I'm sure they thought they were going to take the next step. But they've just collapsed.

[Topaz]

IF it turns out the Liberals have a minority, then the NDP will have the power to change the government BUT, these two guys better come to some form of an agreement or the country will be really peeved off at the party who doesn't want to deal with a two party government. Now, if the Ist party has enough seats, they may only need the Greens IF she has the votes to make a majority, there's really so many ways a new government can happen.

[ToadBrother]

You never know. It's not over until it's over.

Yes, I agree. I'm just looking at the balance of probabilities, and by the Tories' own behavior, which suggests the internal polling is just as grim.

[blueblood]

Don't you mean Paul Martin?

No specifically dions. You could see the tide turning, especially when bob fife says that dion got "the chat". Dions never really got going

[blueblood]

IF it turns out the Liberals have a minority, then the NDP will have the power to change the government BUT, these two guys better come to some form of an agreement or the country will be really peeved off at the party who doesn't want to deal with a two party government. Now, if the Ist party has enough seats, they may only need the Greens IF she has the votes to make a majority, there's really so many ways a new government can happen.

They dont have to agree, the ndp can just conveniently have not enough people ahow up to vote like the linerals did.

[blueblood]

Mulcair's gotta be pretty disappointed. After the last election I'm sure they thought they were going to take the next step. But they've just collapsed.

Its branding. The pmpm liberals were competant and people wanting change the red tories just went there.

[ToadBrother]

IF it turns out the Liberals have a minority, then the NDP will have the power to change the government BUT, these two guys better come to some form of an agreement or the country will be really peeved off at the party who doesn't want to deal with a two party government. Now, if the Ist party has enough seats, they may only need the Greens IF she has the votes to make a majority, there's really so many ways a new government can happen.

Confidence and supply agreement. The NDP gets some goodies and some influence in return for assuring the Liberals are not defeated.

As to the NDP, they're probably going to be broke, so I suspect a Liberal minority is going to have nearly as much latitude as the two Tory minority governments did. A lot of government policy can be changed without actually altering legislation, so it's not like every day of the week holds a confidence pitfall. It will be supply bills where the NDP will have the most say, and what are they going to say, "NO? We're going to cause an election that we'll be screwed in again?"

We'll have two to three years of a Liberal minority.

[ToadBrother]

They dont have to agree, the ndp can just conveniently have not enough people ahow up to vote like the linerals did.

That's how a supply and confidence agreement works. I suspect somewhere in the bowels of both the CPC's and Liberals' headquarters is a document with Harper's and Ignatieff's signatures. The period between 2009 and 2011 had all the hallmarks of a confidence and supply agreement. Lots of noise when it didn't count, a mysterious lack of Liberal MPs when it did.

[BC_chick]

No specifically dions. You could see the tide turning, especially when bob fife says that dion got "the chat". Dions never really got going

Did Dion ever have any kind of momentum? Dion was the accidental leader of the Liberal Party. He wasn't even the second favourite, it seemed like even he couldn't believe he won the leadership. Unlike Harper who was doing relatively well until recently, Dion's campaign never really stood a chance since LPC supporters didn't want Dion from the very start.

I'm also inclined to see the similarities between Paul Martin and Harper 2015. No matter how adequately Harper and Martin may have fulfilled their duties, people just have fatigue of status-quo. Scandals surfacing before election, desperation and fear-mongering from the incumbent to stop the pendulum from swinging.

This is definitely more Martin than Dion.

[Vancouver King]

You never know. It's not over until it's over.

I fully expect if Trudeau gains a majority you will be demanding a recount - just to be sure.

[ToadBrother]

Did Dion ever have any kind of momentum? Dion was the accidental leader of the Liberal Party. He wasn't even the second favourite, it seemed like even he couldn't believe he won the leadership. Unlike Harper who was doing relatively well until recently, Dion's campaign never really stood a chance since LPC supporters didn't want Dion from the very start.

I'm also inclined to see the similarities between Paul Martin and Harper 2015. No matter how adequately Harper and Martin may have fulfilled their duties, people just have fatigue of status-quo. Scandals surfacing before election, desperation and fear-mongering from the incumbent to stop the pendulum from swinging.

This is definitely more Martin than Dion.

Governments get old. While a few jurisdictions, like BC and Alberta, will happily have multi-decade governments, in most democracies, a decade is just about the limit. You can sometimes finagle an extra term out through a leadership change, like the UK Tories did after they dethroned Thatcher and installed Major.

[CITIZEN_2015]

We only had the Nanos poll today so close to election!!!!!.

[CITIZEN_2015]

You never know. It's not over until it's over.

I just got home and tuned to BBC and I hear that the conservative party and Harper have started vicious attacks on Trudeau accusing him of all sort of vicious things. The commentator said that they accused Trudeau of wanting to give marijuana to children!!!!! and legalize brothels......

There are also conservative supporters putting lies on social media tha Trudeau has secretly become a Muslim and he has ties with ISIS!!!!!! Typical of conservatives and some of their supporters. The conservative leader planning a rally with Ford brothers even later today or tomorrow!!!!! Rob Ford admitting to using marijuana and as we speak it is a criminal act and Harper and his anti-crime stand. Hypocrites!!!!

HOW LOW CAN THIS CONSERVATIVE PARTY GO?.

Playing the race and religion to divide Canadians turning Canadians against each other which brought attacks on defenseless women was not bad enough not they have resorted to vicious attacks and hernias lies?

Edited October 14, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015

[ToadBrother]

I just got home and tuned to BBC and I hear that the conservative party and Harper have started vicious attacks on Trudeau accusing him of all sort of vicious things. The commentator said that they accused Trudeau of wanting to give marijuana to children!!!!! and legalize brothels...... There are also conservative supporters putting lies on social media tha Trudeau has secretly become a Muslim and he has ties with ISIS!!!!!! Typical of conservatives and some of their supporters.

HOW LOW CAN THIS CONSERVATIVE PARTY GO. Playing the race and religion to divide Canadians turning Canadians against each other which brought attacks on defenseless women was not bad enough not they have resorted to vicious attacks and hernias lies?

Typically governing parties that are facing defeat can get extraordinarily hyperbolic.

Remember "soldiers in the streets"?

If you're not a Tory supporter, take comfort. It means the Conservatives' internal polling shows the situation to be as dire, or perhaps even more dire, than the public polls.

[CITIZEN_2015]

Typically governing parties that are facing defeat can get extraordinarily hyperbolic.

Remember "soldiers in the streets"?

If you're not a Tory supporter, take comfort. It means the Conservatives' internal polling shows the situation to be as dire, or perhaps even more dire, than the public polls.

The very sad thing is that lies and ad attacks sometimes work as many simple or innocent people believe what they hear from someone who represent their Prime Minister and who pretends to be tough on crimes and claim to hold high moral standard.

Edited October 15, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015

[ReeferMadness]

Typically governing parties that are facing defeat can get extraordinarily hyperbolic.

Remember "soldiers in the streets"?

If you're not a Tory supporter, take comfort. It means the Conservatives' internal polling shows the situation to be as dire, or perhaps even more dire, than the public polls.

The "soldiers in the streets" ad never aired on TV. It was on the Liberal website for a short time.

[ToadBrother]

The "soldiers in the streets" ad never aired on TV. It was on the Liberal website for a short time.

That may be, but the fact is that parties start pondering such advertising only when they're in panic mode. The Tories clearly see that even the hope of a plurality is slipping away. Before this is done, I guarantee you we'll hear stories of how Trudeau plans to send aid to ISIS. It's just the way partisan minds work; no lie is too great when power is threatened.

[cybercoma]

If the Liberals win seats in Alberta like I projected last week, then Harper will be thoroughly disgraced.

[ToadBrother]

If the Liberals win seats in Alberta like I projected last week, then Harper will be thoroughly disgraced.

Well, they look to pick up possibly four, and I think the NDP are set to win one or two.

But frankly, the real disgrace for Harper will be how the suburban southern Ontario ridings, which were supposed to be the impenetrable fortress of perpetual Tory rule, colored blue until the Universe dies its heat death, are heavily in play, with the Tories set to witness huge seat losses.

But to my mind, even if the Tories do manage a plurality, the greatest humiliation for Stephen Harper will be that the Liberals will probably gain at least four times the seats they held at dissolution. The entire edifice of Harper Conservatism; the destruction of the Liberal Party of Canada, is not only a failure, it is an abject and absolute failure. The one thing above all things that Harper and the Reform wing of the party wanted, the crushing of the Grits and the salting of their fields, has proven to be one of the single greatest failures of strategy in Canadian history.

A few extra Liberal and NDP seats in Tory strongholds is merely the cherry on top at this point.

Edited October 14, 2015 by ToadBrother

[cybercoma]

New Brunswick Southwest also has rumours of going to the Liberals, which will be a hell freezing over moment if it comes to fruition.

[ToadBrother]

New Brunswick Southwest also has rumours of going to the Liberals, which will be a hell freezing over moment if it comes to fruition.

It looks like an election of no small gestures, that's for sure.

[CITIZEN_2015]

Latest on preferred Prime Minister by CTV

Justine Trudeau - 33% - This is the highest I ever recall.

Harper - 28.8%

Mulcair - 19.9%

EKOS just made another release and claims Liberals are only 4% ahead.

Liberals - 34.1%

conservatives - 29.9%

NDP - 24.1%

I don't give much weight tp EKOS personally but I attach the link in case you are interested.

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_october_14_2015.pdf

Edited October 14, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015