Federal Election Polls

[ToadBrother]

Latest on preferred Prime Minister by CTV

Justine Trudeau - 33% - This is the highest I ever recall.

Harper - 28.8%

Mulcair - 19.9%

EKOS just made another release and claims Liberals are only 4% ahead.

Liberals - 34.1%

conservatives - 29.9%

NDP - 24.1%

I don't give much weight tp EKOS personally but attack the link if you are interested.

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_october_14_2015.pdf

It's close enough to Nanos and Leger to verify what is becoming clear, that the Liberals are in the lead. While we've still got four and a half days of campaigning left, and it's possible the Tories could find renewed strength, I think we can start talking about how many seats a potential Liberal government can have.

One can only guess at what the internal polls suggest, but the fact that the Tories are becoming more shrill in their attacks, and Trudeau has even mentioned the word "majority" confirms to me that their polling is reflecting what the major polls are showing; some sort of a Liberal government, with a now at least small possibility of a majority.

[Smallc]

There's also the fact that somewhere in the range of 4M people already voted between advance polls, special ballots, and mail in ballots.

[CITIZEN_2015]

It's close enough to Nanos and Leger s reflecting

Somehow I find it hard to believe that 30% of people of an intelligent nation still vote for a Charlatan fraudulent party.

[ToadBrother]

Somehow I find it hard to believe that 30% of people of an intelligent nation still vote for a Charlatan fraudulent party.

I'm getting that feeling that many within that 28-30% of voters have no great love of Stephen Harper or the Conservatives. They, in their own way, are making a similar calculation that the ABH crowd are, but coming up with a different result. One can well imagine that if there was another right of center party that they could cast a vote for, they would.

[angrypenguin]

Somehow I find it hard to believe that 30% of people of an intelligent nation still vote for a Charlatan fraudulent party.

Give me another party that will lower my taxes and not spend ridiculous amounts of money while being 100% pure, and i'll vote for them.

If the Liberal party wasn't going to raise my taxes, I might have voted for them. Couple this with the whole deficit thing for 3 years - not a chance in hell.

There some of you on here who seem to believe that because of Advance polling the Liberals will win. Every Conservative voter I know has flipped out and has voted due to the possibility of the Liberals/NDP. How do any of you know who is voting for whom?

[ToadBrother]

Give me another party that will lower my taxes and not spend ridiculous amounts of money while being 100% pure, and i'll vote for them.

If the Liberal party wasn't going to raise my taxes, I might have voted for them. Couple this with the whole deficit thing for 3 years - not a chance in hell.

There some of you on here who seem to believe that because of Advance polling the Liberals will win. Every Conservative voter I know has flipped out and has voted due to the possibility of the Liberals/NDP. How do any of you know who is voting for whom?

Trying to beat someone else's anecdotal evidence with your own is not compelling.

The fact is that the Liberal upswing began before the Advance Polls opened, and while there might be an argument to say that the Advance Polls might favor the Tories, I have my doubts about that.

The fact is that what was going to deliver the Tories a victory at the beginning of this campaign was a vote split with between the Liberals and NDP. The real story here isn't that the Tories are stuck orbiting 30%, as they pretty much have since the campaign began, and in a way, it's not even that the Liberals are now showing a sustained lead in the polls, but rather that the NDP have fallen back so far that the entire Tory strategy of relying on vote efficiency in contested ridings has now failed. They are left largely with the same formula of popular vote to seats that the Liberals are, and they simply are no longer as competitive.

I could be wrong. It wouldn't be the first time. But if the Tories are to pull off even a narrow plurality, they have very little time to do it, and the aggregators all seem to agree that they simply don't have the room to grow their vote. To be fair, neither do the NDP, and as someone has to be the recipient of all those potential votes, it looks like a Liberal government.

[angrypenguin]

Trying to beat someone else's anecdotal evidence with your own is not compelling.

The fact is that the Liberal upswing began before the Advance Polls opened, and while there might be an argument to say that the Advance Polls might favor the Tories, I have my doubts about that.

The fact is that what was going to deliver the Tories a victory at the beginning of this campaign was a vote split with between the Liberals and NDP. The real story here isn't that the Tories are stuck orbiting 30%, as they pretty much have since the campaign began, and in a way, it's not even that the Liberals are now showing a sustained lead in the polls, but rather that the NDP have fallen back so far that the entire Tory strategy of relying on vote efficiency in contested ridings has now failed. They are left largely with the same formula of popular vote to seats that the Liberals are, and they simply are no longer as competitive.

I could be wrong. It wouldn't be the first time. But if the Tories are to pull off even a narrow plurality, they have very little time to do it, and the aggregators all seem to agree that they simply don't have the room to grow their vote. To be fair, neither do the NDP, and as someone has to be the recipient of all those potential votes, it looks like a Liberal government.

Last EKOS poll shows a NDP upswing.

[CITIZEN_2015]

Give me another party that will lower my taxes and not spend ridiculous amounts of money while being 100% pure, and i'll vote for them.

If the Liberal party wasn't going to raise my taxes, I might have voted for them. Couple this with the whole deficit thing for 3 years - not a chance in hell.

There some of you on here who seem to believe that because of Advance polling the Liberals will win. Every Conservative voter I know has flipped out and has voted due to the possibility of the Liberals/NDP. How do any of you know who is voting for whom?

Again if you are earning more than 200,000 then yes your taxes will be higher and you should pay your fair share so that 9 out of 10 Canadian can have more money in their wallets and some be able to pay for essentials.. Trudeau has said it and I have heard him myself that he will not cancel tax credits like income splitting for middle class and those for seniors. In fact he will provide lower taxes for 9 out of 10 Canadians who have harder times.

The same deficit spending that Harper did in 2008 (50 billion) he is proposing only 10 billions for 2-3 years only and is an investment on our crumbling infrastructure and jobs for people who can't find one. The conservatives are LYING and resort to fear monger and lies and character assassinations (yes they are as good as assassins) in order to fool or scare people into voting for them. Your country taht I am sure you love (we all do) deserve much better than this bunch of Charlatans to take over and disgrace Canada even more.

No I believe that huge turn out in advance polling is bad sign for Liberals.

Edited October 14, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015

[angrypenguin]

Again if you are earning more than 200,000 then yes your taxes will be higher and you should pay your fair share

Taxes are high enough for that bracket. And like I have said on here, that tax doesn't affect me. Same liberal bullshit about taxation. Tax the rich because that doesn't affect me! How is that freaking fair?

I want free money too, but I'm not entitled.

Edited October 14, 2015 by angrypenguin

[ToadBrother]

Taxes are high enough for that bracket. And like I have said on here, that tax doesn't affect me. Same liberal bullshit about taxation. Tax the rich because that doesn't affect me! How is that freaking fair?

I want free money too, but I'm not entitled.

"Fair" and "entitled" are whatever Parliament, as the representative of the will of the electorate, thinks is fair. If Parliament wants to raise taxes based on an income bracket, well, that is a long established practiced that was long ago made Parliament's right. You may certainly object, but you will have to pay your taxes regardless.

[Spiderfish]

Somehow I find it hard to believe that 30% of people of an intelligent nation still vote for a Charlatan fraudulent party.

I guess maybe there's still a significant number of people that believe that they are the safe bet.

When Trudeau says things like "if Canada was really the Canada of Stephen Harper and that we were going against abortion, that we were going against gay marriage, that we were moving backwards in 10,000 different ways, maybe I would think of wanting to make Quebec a country" it doesn't leave much in the way of a viable alternative for Conservative voters.

[CITIZEN_2015]

Taxes are high enough for that bracket. And like I have said on here, that tax doesn't affect me. Same liberal bullshit about taxation. Tax the rich because that doesn't affect me! How is that freaking fair?

I want free money too, but I'm not entitled.

Tax the rich more because those who are fortunate will pay for less fortunate who are less fortunate many for no fault of their own.

[angrypenguin]

Tax the rich more because those who are fortunate will pay for less fortunate who are less fortunate many for no fault of their own.

Then they should change their fortune. It's unbelievable the amount of entitlement from those on the Left. Man up and carry on. And let's be frank. You're not talking about the poor. You're talking about the MIDDLE class.

Edited October 14, 2015 by angrypenguin

[CITIZEN_2015]

Then they should change their fortune. It's unbelievable the amount of entitlement from those on the Left. Man up and carry on. And let's be frank. You're not talking about the poor. You're talking about the MIDDLE class.

Oh they are much more man than some of those uncaring rich who accumulate the money for themselves taking trips to resorts and going for bigger and bigger cars and houses and still sleep at night knowing that millions of children are living below poverty and seniors unable to pay for food, heat and medicine.

It is typical of conservatives to blame the victims. Jobs are scarce. Pay is low. cost is rising. Even people who work full time and serving you in restaurants and groceries are unable to catch up with rising cost of rent and food with minimum or close to minimum wages and those single mothers and seniors and many of them ARE middle class. Yes it is their fault they should man up!!!!! According to you.

It is all money money money. Life for you is only life if it is with more money. Nothing else matters. It doesn't matter who these gangsters a bunch of charlatans are and the fact that they are liars and vicious and wanting to take over your country. The whole world can burn as long as they put a few dollars more in your pocket. A typical conservative supporter.

Edited October 14, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015

[Topaz]

They we don't tax the rich how can we get some of those "golden pensions" back? That why so many certain MPs are talking about it.

[angrypenguin]

Oh they are much more man than some of those uncaring rich who accumulate the money for themselves taking trips to resorts and going for bigger and bigger cars and houses and still sleep at night knowing that millions of children are living below poverty and seniors unable to pay for food, heat and medicine.

It is typical of conservatives to blame the victims. Jobs are scarce. Pay is low. cost is rising. Even people who work full time and serving you in restaurants and groceries are unable to catch up with rising cost of rent and food with minimum or close to minimum wages and those single mothers and seniors and many of them ARE middle class. Yes it is their fault they should man up!!!!! According to you.

It is all money money money. Life for you is only life if it is with more money. Nothing else matters. It doesn't matter who these gangsters a bunch of charlatans are and the fact that they are liars and vicious and wanting to take over your country. The whole world can burn as long as they put a few dollars more in your pocket. A typical conservative supporter.

My parents were two broke immigrants who worked minimum wage for a while. I'm in my late twenties making close to 200k. I inherited nothing. Don't put your laziness on my back. Two degrees and a few years out I'm doing well. I had the same access to life as the average Canadian.

You're so entitled it boggles my mind.

[ToadBrother]

My parents were two broke immigrants who worked minimum wage for a while. I'm in my late twenties making close to 200k. I inherited nothing. Don't put your laziness on my back. Two degrees and a few years out I'm doing well. I had the same access to life as the average Canadian.

You're so entitled it boggles my mind.

Can you please stop making these unverifiable claims. Unless you're going to throw up your 2014 tax return, I fail to see how this is anything more than a concocted claim to try to win an argument in the absence of any actual rationale.

[cybercoma]

Last EKOS poll shows a NDP upswing.

Most polls showing NDP stable. That upswing was within the margin of error from previous poll.

[Canada_First]

Most polls showing NDP stable. That upswing was within the margin of error from previous poll.

Yes the rot of the NDP has stopped and is beginning to reverse. Mulcair is having a great week so far. Go NDP Go!

[angrypenguin]

Yes the rot of the NDP has stopped and is beginning to reverse. Mulcair is having a great week so far. Go NDP Go!

Agreed!! Go Mulcair

[SpankyMcFarland]

When I told a Muslim colleague I voted Liberal, first words out of his mouth were 'so you want to pay more taxes?'. 'Yes', I said, 'I do'.

[poochy]

Tax the rich more because those who are fortunate will pay for less fortunate who are less fortunate many for no fault of their own.

Yes, thats called life, not everyone gets the same breaks, you might as well go full marxist if you are trying to completely level the playing field in that way.

[poochy]

Somehow I find it hard to believe that 30% of people of an intelligent nation still vote for a Charlatan fraudulent party.

Or maybe you're just wrong about everything. I mean with propaganda post after propaganda post, including hits like

"There are also conservative supporters putting lies on social media tha Trudeau has secretly become a Muslim and he has ties with ISIS!!!!!! Typical of conservatives and some of their supporters."

How could anyone doubt that you're in the other 70% Now there are plenty of morons, even here, that refer to Harper as though he were fascist dictator, with not so subtle references to the Nazi's often included, so it's stands to reason that those people might exist on the other side as well. But to even mention it, in light of the avalanche of ridiculous comments going the other way is so laughable that i don't have a word to describe it. At least not one that won't get my post deleted, you're just here as a liberal propagandist, you have been since day one, you can't argue any point without easily being hit over the head with it, you make indefensible comments with no substance over and over, i got news for you, you might not be voting for the guy, but it's not because of any sort of intelligence or any other kind of superiority you may have, in your ignorance, imagined.

Edited October 15, 2015 by poochy

[Keepitsimple]

When I told a Muslim colleague I voted Liberal, first words out of his mouth were 'so you want to pay more taxes?'. 'Yes', I said, 'I do'.

After all the breathless fear-mongering, divisive accusations being hurled at the Conservatives - you don't see the irony in your comment?

[angrypenguin]

Oh they are much more man than some of those uncaring rich who accumulate the money for themselves taking trips to resorts and going for bigger and bigger cars and houses and still sleep at night knowing that millions of children are living below poverty and seniors unable to pay for food, heat and medicine.

It is typical of conservatives to blame the victims. Jobs are scarce. Pay is low. cost is rising. Even people who work full time and serving you in restaurants and groceries are unable to catch up with rising cost of rent and food with minimum or close to minimum wages and those single mothers and seniors and many of them ARE middle class. Yes it is their fault they should man up!!!!! According to you.

It is all money money money. Life for you is only life if it is with more money. Nothing else matters. It doesn't matter who these gangsters a bunch of charlatans are and the fact that they are liars and vicious and wanting to take over your country. The whole world can burn as long as they put a few dollars more in your pocket. A typical conservative supporter.

Absolutely unbelievable. What's wrong with making money? Go write a huge fat check to the government then because that flat screen TV that you have - you know that one? It's not fair. I strongly believe you should give sell that TV, give it to the government to help subsidize the poor.

Would you be OK (and if you say you would be, that's pure BS), if we hiked your income tax by 3%? Clearly Canadians have it better than those in say, Asia, so clearly you should be taxed more. Would you vote for this party?

And do tell me, how does the government truly help the poor? You're basically saying, AP, you make too much, I deserve a 2% tax reduction in my income because how dare you make so much. I deserve more. #entitled.

Also, I work much harder than you. I fly out Sunday night, get home Saturday at around 1am. I work about 80 hours a week. So kindly, bugger off when you make statements like that. There are 14 or so people in this country who can do what I do at my level. So let me be entitled then. I deserve my pay, my perks, and my benefits. If you feel like you can do what I do, go apply for it.

Otherwise, supply and demand works. If all you can do is shovel dirt, then one can expect to make minimum wage. Too bad. Be accountable for your actions and career decisions.

This sort of attitude is why I can be a prick. It blows my mind that someone thinks I make too much money. I used to donate quite a bit of money, now I'm bitter. If the Liberals come to power, my donations will go to $0. And my donations go directly to the "poor", not to the middle class. You're referencing the poor, but you really mean you. You mean that you deserve a break. Come on.