Federal Election Polls

Vancouver King · October 7, 2015

Let me be the first to offer an apology to Nick Nanos, how could I have doubted his Liberal lead?

Evening Star · October 7, 2015

Thank Mulcair"s principled but naïve stance on the niqab issue. That he failed to anticipate how his stance would play out in his own home province calls into question his judgement on other sensitive files.

Have you considered that he might have anticipated this and did what he thought was right anyway?

ToadBrother · October 7, 2015

And I am more confused than ever by these polls that one released this morning showing a narrowing Liberal lead (Nanos) and the other showing a narrowing conservative lead (Ekos) both used to show big leads not long ago for their statistically tied leading party and both released today!!!!!.

What's there to be confused about? It's a two horse race now.

Frankly, I think it's anybody's guess what happens next. Will the NDP shed more support? Will it go to the Bloc, or will Quebec get over its two decade allergy to the Liberals? Will the Tories fall back closer to the true base (which I firmly believe is below 30%), or will the voters get gun shy in the final stretch and hand it to the Tories?

Or maybe, we'll end up exactly like this. The Tories in a slim minority of a dozen seats or so, the Liberals hungry to topple them, and a chastened and much shrunken NDP prepared to back them to seize what influence they can, and most importantly, to push the Liberals to put a new electoral system in place that will prevent them from ultimately falling back to traditional levels of support.

My prediction is either a short-lived Tory minority of a dozen seats or thereabouts that can find no support in Parliament and will fall at the Throne Speech, ushering in a Liberal minority with NDP support, or alternatively, the Liberals win a minority outright without the need for non-confidence fuss. I do not see a happy ending for the Conservatives.

Vancouver King · October 7, 2015

Have you considered that he might have anticipated this and did what he thought was right anyway?

An issue that affected only 2 women in 4 years versus forming gov't and positively changing the lives of millions - which one sounds more preferable? Mulcair got poor advice - he would not knowingly sacrifice a shot at gov't over what should have been a minor issue.

CITIZEN_2015 · October 7, 2015

What's there to be confused about? It's a two horse race now.

Source of confusion is that opposite directions they show in their polls (Liberals losing the lead in Nanos and conservatives losing the lead in Ekos). I expected both showing one not both losing lead but yes in both cases they show statistical tie. I am trying to figure out who is gaining and who is losing because whoever is enjoying the momentum just 11 days to election is the one who would form the next government. But it is hard to determine that now.

I stand by my seat projections earlier in the week. I anticipated a small Liberal minority government as I believe (my own analysis not from the polls) that the Liberals have the momentum and it will be 30% to 32% versus 33% to 35% in favor of Liberals on election day. I put my trust in Canadian compassion and intelligence. Most Canadians will realize the politics of division and manipulations by then

Edited October 7, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015

ToadBrother · October 7, 2015

Source of confusion is that opposite directions they show in their polls (Liberals losing the lead in Nanos and conservatives losing the lead in Ekos). I expected both showing one not both losing lead but yes in both cases they show statistical tie. I am trying to figure out who is gaining and who is losing because whoever is enjoying the momentum just 11 days to election is the one who would form the next government. But it is hard to determine that now.

The distance between the two is within the margin of error, so far as I can see. They are statistically tied.

CITIZEN_2015 · October 7, 2015

The distance between the two is within the margin of error, so far as I can see. They are statistically tied.

Who has the momentum?. This is the big mystery to me that I am trying to determine.

ToadBrother · October 7, 2015

Who has the momentum?. This is the big mystery to me that I am trying to determine.

Only time will tell, and maybe only the election results will tell. It could be a close race right until the end.

eyeball · October 7, 2015

I do not see a happy ending for the Conservatives.

The best possible outcome whatever the case may be.

cybercoma · October 7, 2015

conservatives have overtaken both NDP and Liberals in Quebec but Liberals well ahead in Ontario now.

That would be incorrect. There's a three-way statistical tie in Quebec. The margin of error in the province is +/- 5.3%

angrypenguin · October 8, 2015

The Conservatives haven't lost the lead on the Ekos polls though. (was responding to a post on page 317). It's a stat. tie, but to say they've lost the lead is a bit of a stretch

Edited October 8, 2015 by angrypenguin

Kageshima · October 8, 2015

The Conservatives haven't lost the lead on the Ekos polls though. (was responding to a post on page 317). It's a stat. tie, but to say they've lost the lead is a bit of a stretch

No one has the lead because of the statistical tie, so they technically have lost the lead. The lead belongs to nobody. It's tight. That's not a stretch.

CITIZEN_2015 · October 8, 2015

Another statistical tie between liberals and conservatives (Nanos poll released October 8)

National Ballot – Support for the federal parties stands at 33.5% for the Liberals, 31.6% for the Conservatives, 24.2% for the NDP, and 4.6% for the Greens nationally. • Accessible Voters – Asked a series of independent questions for each federal party as to whether they would consider or not consider voting for that party, 49.3% of Canadians would consider voting for the Liberals, 41.4% would consider voting NDP, 40.9% would consider voting for the Conservatives, 24.3% would consider the Greens, and 30.2% of Quebecers would consider the BQ.

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/20151006%20Ballot%20TrackingE.pdf

Triple M · October 8, 2015

For those seeking a narrative the polls are not providing much help in establishing one. I was surprised to see the Cons at 28% in one PQ poll and 4th in another or them having a big lead in ON in one poll and a large deficit in others.

Edited October 8, 2015 by Triple M

angrypenguin · October 8, 2015

Forum poll out. Liberals in a lead but still statistically tied. Makes sense based on their poll conducted Mon/Tuesday.

I'd post more but I'm on my phone

Triple M · October 8, 2015

Forum poll out. Liberals in a lead but still statistically tied. Makes sense based on their poll conducted Mon/Tuesday.

I'd post more but I'm on my phone

Liberal lead is larger than the margin of error but i have a hard time believing that they are leading or have that much support on the Prairies

cybercoma · October 8, 2015

Prairie numbers are useless. In a 1200 person poll, MB/SK will only have about 120 representatives (+/- 5). Nanos overnight drops 400 respondents and adds 400 respondents. That means SK/MB will only have about 40 respondents between the two of them for any given night. This makes their numbers almost meaningless on a regional level. Sure they weight it, but garbage in, garbage out.

blueblood · October 8, 2015

Prairie numbers are useless. In a 1200 person poll, MB/SK will only have about 120 representatives (+/- 5). Nanos overnight drops 400 respondents and adds 400 respondents. That means SK/MB will only have about 40 respondents between the two of them for any given night. This makes their numbers almost meaningless on a regional level. Sure they weight it, but garbage in, garbage out.

Honestly its too close to call. The tories arent seeing a bump with their tpp deal. Thats the problem with running only attack ads, turns people off. The tories needed to convey their ideas and why they work, not constantly calling trudeau immature.

Triple M · October 8, 2015

Prairie numbers are useless. In a 1200 person poll, MB/SK will only have about 120 representatives (+/- 5). Nanos overnight drops 400 respondents and adds 400 respondents. That means SK/MB will only have about 40 respondents between the two of them for any given night. This makes their numbers almost meaningless on a regional level. Sure they weight it, but garbage in, garbage out.

i was mentioning the Forum poll not Nanos

Edit: isee now that the person i was replying to was referring to Nanos and not Forum

Edited October 8, 2015 by Triple M

cybercoma · October 8, 2015

Same applies to Forum too, honestly. Their prairie numbers are so low that it's tough to say anything about the region from these polls.

angrypenguin · October 8, 2015

Honestly its too close to call. The tories arent seeing a bump with their tpp deal. Thats the problem with running only attack ads, turns people off. The tories needed to convey their ideas and why they work, not constantly calling trudeau immature.

Think it's too soon to be able to see any potential tpp bump.

Edited October 8, 2015 by angrypenguin

angrypenguin · October 8, 2015

What days do each of the polls come out?

I know that Nanos is nightly

EKOS is Friday?

How about the others? Is there a pattern?

ToadBrother · October 8, 2015

Think it's too soon to be able to see any potential tpp bump.

Canadians feel feds haven't done enough to protect Canada's interest in TPP talks: Nanos survey

http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/canadians-feel-feds-haven-t-done-enough-to-protect-canada-s-interest-in-tpp-talks-nanos-survey-1.2600820

angrypenguin · October 8, 2015

Canadians feel feds haven't done enough to protect Canada's interest in TPP talks: Nanos survey

http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/canadians-feel-feds-haven-t-done-enough-to-protect-canada-s-interest-in-tpp-talks-nanos-survey-1.2600820

At this point, I do not think that Canadians even know that much about the TPP. Most people aren't like us!

dialamah · October 8, 2015

I just like to check the cbc poll tracker which is updated mid-day I think. Nanos in the morning for a dose of optimism to start my day (while libs are ahead), aggregate polls later for reality check. :-) Works for me.