Federal Election Polls

[Vancouver King]

Interesting, have their been any public BC only polls lately? I have several family members involved with the Greens here on Vancouver Island, and they claim its a three-way Tory/NDP/Green race (Vancouver Island only).

Refer to my post #4095 & 4068. A recent Nanos sounding had Conservatives ahead of the NDP by 5 points in BC, a result easily dismissed considering the low regional sample size.

Ekos, however, commented today: "The poll results now show the Conservatives with clear leads in British Columbia ..."

Today's controversial poll tends to confirm recent significant movement here in BC.

Despite the gloomy news for BC's federal NDP, Vancouver Island will likely be the last area - along with eastside Vancouver seats - to tumble out of the NDP column into the Conservatives. The Island's 7 seats are strictly a 2-way race between NDP & Greens.

Edited September 24, 2015 by Vancouver King

[Keepitsimple]

This thread's been pretty quiet since that last EKOS poll......

[CITIZEN_2015]

http://m.thestar.com/#/article/news/federal-election/2015/09/24/conservatives-swing-into-lead-close-in-on-majority-government-new-poll-suggests.html

BOOMFACE!

This EKOS poll scared the hell out of me yesterday but Nanos overnight poll again confirmed what it and other polls are saying which is a tight race. This latest one even Liberal ahead of the Conservatives by more than 3 percentage points . Not sure I can ever trust EKOS anymore!!.

Three points separate major parties: Nanos tracking

The Liberal Party was the first choice of 32.3 per cent of respondents, followed by

the NDP at 31.1 per cent, and

the Conservatives at 28.9 per cent.

Voters were also asked a series of questions about whether they would consider or not consider voting for each of the federal parties, to determine each party’s proportion of accessible voters.

The latest results show:

• The Liberals with 50.9 per cent support
• The NDP with 49.5 per cent support
• The Conservatives with 38.6 per cent support

BOOMFACE!

Edited September 25, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015

[Canada_First]

I go by poll tracker at cbc and 308.Com. it uses all data from all polls and averages them out instead of relying on one poll.

http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/poll-tracker/2015/

[Vancouver King]

So, you are tired of the never changing 30% for all poll dance. Major change is afoot - today's Nanos numbers show the NDP in trouble:

Liberals - 32.5

CPC - 31.5

NDP - 27.6

Time for strategic voters to move to Liberals?

[SpankyMcFarland]

FPTP does not allow for sophisticated choices. It's basically binary. I consider this election a referendum on Harper. In my riding, that means voting Liberal. Elsewhere NDP will be the best option or even Green in one or two places. The important thing is to know the strongest non-Harper party in your constituency, if you are that way inclined. The right wingers have a simpler set of options - vote for Steve or stay home.

Edited September 27, 2015 by SpankyMcFarland

[Vancouver King]

FPTP does not allow for sophisticated choices. It's basically binary. I consider this election a referendum on Harper. In my riding, that means voting Liberal. Elsewhere NDP will be the best option or even Green in one or two places. The important thing is to know the strongest non-Harper party in your constituency.

Strategic voting must be kept simple if it's to be effective. It was suggested earlier as soon as either the NDP or Liberals make an unmistakable move in the polls, all non-Harper supporters should move to the party with measurable momentum.

With 3 weeks to go that momentum appears to be with the Liberals.

Edited September 27, 2015 by Vancouver King

[SpankyMcFarland]

Strategic voting must be kept simple if it's to be effective. It was suggested earlier as soon as either the NDP or Liberals make an unmistakable move in the polls, all non-Harper supporters should move to the party with measurable momentum.

With 3 weeks to go that momentum appears to be with the Liberals.

I disagree with that. In some ridings you will be wasting your vote doing that and helping to give us more Harper. Which goes to show what a pig ignorant system FPTP is. Edited September 27, 2015 by SpankyMcFarland

[cybercoma]

Liberals and Conservatives in a statistical tie. NDP out of tie range with the Liberals. Support for the NDP weakening in Québec and Ontario. No time to post the polls from the weekend. You guys are on top of things though.

[Bryan]

Both EKOS and Nanos are showing the CPC may be gradually pulling ahead. NDP support definitely sliding a bit, especialy in Ontario.

Today's Nanos numbers:

CPC - 33.0

LPC - 31.6

NDP - 26.9

GRN - 3.6

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/20150927%20Ballot%20TrackingE.pdf

5.6% MOE though.

[PIK]

People will eventually figure it out that harper is the only choice we have . Like him or not he is the best pick. People need to stuff their HDS and use their brains again. Or we will be in big trouble.

[Vancouver King]

People will eventually figure it out that harper is the only choice we have . Like him or not he is the best pick. People need to stuff their HDS and use their brains again. Or we will be in big trouble.

I will happily vote for big trouble.

[Boges]

Both EKOS and Nanos are showing the CPC may be gradually pulling ahead. NDP support definitely sliding a bit, especialy in Ontario.

Today's Nanos numbers:

CPC - 33.0

LPC - 31.6

NDP - 26.9

GRN - 3.6

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/20150927%20Ballot%20TrackingE.pdf

5.6% MOE though.

NDP are out of the margin then.

They aren't marketable in most of Ontario. To win a federal election you need to win Ontario and they are irrelevant everywhere except Windsor, Hamilton, parts of Toronto and the North.

[Shady]

I thought Liberal support in Ontario would soften, not NDP.

[Vancouver King]

I thought Liberal support in Ontario would soften, not NDP.

I might be reading this wrong, however, strategic voting will be an important factor in the final 3 weeks as droves of New Democrats jump ship to the Liberals in a final effort to stop Harper.

[Smallc]

I give the Liberals a 1/2 chance of winning, and the Conservatives about 1/3.

[Keepitsimple]

I might be reading this wrong, however, strategic voting will be an important factor in the final 3 weeks as droves of New Democrats jump ship to the Liberals in a final effort to stop Harper.

There's a wild card in play in Ontario - and it's Kathleen Wynne. Ontario voters may have parked their vote elsewhere but will more easily return to the Conservative fold because of Wynne's unpopularity - as well as that of the party itself. She has stumped for Trudeau so overtly that her failed policies and corruption can't help but tarnish the overall Liberal brand.

[Derek 2.0]

A new poll from Abacus:

Nationwide:

Interesting to note, as Cybercoma mentioned last week, is the Quebec numbers for the NDP:

It seems the Liberals, Tories and the Bloc are all improving in Quebec at the NDP's expense. It's quite clear, if the NDP lose their base support, they will return to a third place rump party, a cruel lesson about relying upon Quebec, that the Liberals and Tories know all too well.

And in the two battlegrounds that will decide this election:

[ToadBrother]

A new poll from Abacus:

I think it's a bit early to declare the NDP dead, but it seems that they are fading in Quebec, and certainly weakening in BC. I can't see them so totally collapsing by election day that this turns into a classic Grit-Tory showdown, but it does appear that they need to do something.

Purely anecdotal, but my wife, who is a firm NDP supporter (yes, I love her anyways... ) is saying "I think Trudeau is going to win..." Now I don't have her certainty that the Tories won't pull off a victory of some sort, but I think if you have NDPers starting to look at the electoral calculus here in their "Anybody But Harper" terms, I would be pretty concerned if I was Mulcair and Co. that the progressives and left of centers may very well be seeing the Liberals as the best possible course to preventing a Tory majority.

Lots of time left, but I think we can say one thing about this election, that all the predictions that Trudeau would fall to pieces, become nothing more than a quivering pile of gaffes with nice hair, have failed. I wouldn't call him a top notch campaigner yet, but he and his time have done some pretty good work to plant themselves firmly between the Tories and NDP. In other words, the Liberals appear to be back, and as deft as ever at stealing bits and pieces of their competitors' platforms and putting the ol' Red Book Spin on them.

Whatever anyone may think of Harper's decade in power, I'd say his overarching goal, to destroy the Liberal Party, has failed. Even if the Tories pull off a victory in a few weeks, it seems likely that they will have to do so with a renewed Liberal machine. We may be returning to a "normal" electoral situation; Tories and Liberals battling for majorities; and the NDP reduced to permanent third party status.

Edited September 28, 2015 by ToadBrother

[ToadBrother]

There's a wild card in play in Ontario - and it's Kathleen Wynne. Ontario voters may have parked their vote elsewhere but will more easily return to the Conservative fold because of Wynne's unpopularity - as well as that of the party itself. She has stumped for Trudeau so overtly that her failed policies and corruption can't help but tarnish the overall Liberal brand.

If Wynne was going to harm the Liberals in Ontario, she would have already. I think invoking Wynne as the Liberals' Achilles heal is wishful thinking for the Tories. Whatever happens, it's clear the Tories have lost a lot of support in Ontario that they are not likely to get back in this election at least.

[Shady]

If those polls are accurate, Harper's gonna cruise to a win, probably not a majority though.

[ToadBrother]

If those polls are accurate, Harper's gonna cruise to a win, probably not a majority though.

and if the opposition decide to defeat the Tories, that win quickly becomes a loss.

[Boges]

and if the opposition decide to defeat the Tories, that win quickly becomes a loss.

Yeah because voters will treat a return to the polls a few months later very kindly.

[CITIZEN_2015]

and if the opposition decide to defeat the Tories, that win quickly becomes a loss.

Yes If the opposition decides to defeat the Tories by joining together then they would establish a true democracy in Canada as together they will have 60%+ of the votes. It is our election system that a party with 38% of votes forms a majority (25% of eligible voters which likely means only 25% vote for them as those who are eligible but don't vote are likely not happy with any of the parties including conservatives) and then passes unpopular bills to satisfy a minority religious right.

Edited September 28, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015

[Boges]

Yes If the opposition decides to defeat the Tories by joining together then they would establish a true democracy in Canada as together they will have 60%+ of the votes. It is our election system which is flawed that a party with 38% of votes (25% of eligible voters which likely means only 25% vote for them as those who are eligible but don't vote are likely not happy with any of the parties including conservatives) forms a majority and then passes unpopular bills to satisfy a minority religious right.

Blah Blah, I'm sure you'll be outraged if the Liberals win a majority with 35%. LIKE IN ONTARIO!!!!