Federal Election Polls

[ToadBrother]

Stephane Harper? Was that just your error or did Leger actually print that?

Well, it's too bad she's behind Justine Trudeau, but good she's ahead of that inveterate jokester, Timmy Mulcair!

[Hydraboss]

Timmy! Nobody trusts that kid!

[Hydraboss]

Page 8 is the one I find the most interesting personally. Percentage who may change their vote. Wow. Not a very hard core, dedicated bunch on one side of the spectrum.

[dialamah]

Page 8 is the one I find the most interesting personally. Percentage who may change their vote. Wow. Not a very hard core, dedicated bunch on one side of the spectrum.

To me, that indicates an open mind and a willingness to reconsider based on additional information. My personal opinion is that's a better way to choose, rather than being entirely fixated on only one option.

Page 9 is interesting, too: 51% of NDP would vote Liberal as a second choice; 54% of Liberal would vote NDP. Makes me wonder if that's 'strategic voting' in action?

[Hydraboss]

My "options" total...1. No real choice for me to switch to.

I think page 9 is either the strategic voting thing or flip flopping on the next great promise made.

[SpankyMcFarland]

The site doesn't show the percentage ranges, but it would be much higher than 32% with 201 seats won. It would probably be north of 40% if my guess is right.

I guess the range extends to the percentage of vote as well. 200 or so seats still sounds like a generous reward for 40 per cent of the vote but that's FPTP for you.

Edited October 9, 2015 by SpankyMcFarland

[dialamah]

My "options" total...1. No real choice for me to switch to.

Is it the people in the other parties that you object to, their current platform, or the overall ideology?

[CITIZEN_2015]

Stephane Harper? Was that just your error or did Leger actually print that?

No sorry it was me. Stéphane is my friend's name as why I mistyped.

Edited October 9, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015

[Hydraboss]

Is it the people in the other parties that you object to, their current platform, or the overall ideology?

I've answered this in another thread (can't remember which), but the short of it is that I absolutely disagree with the NDP on pretty much every single item they believe in, and with a gun to my head I would never vote for anyone named Trudeau. Even though, short term, I would stand to keep a little more money under his "superplan".

I actually voted NDP last federal election just to send a message to the idiot of an MP in my riding. Of course, I knew the NDP kid wouldn't win.

[angrypenguin]

I actually voted NDP last federal election just to send a message to the idiot of an MP in my riding. Of course, I knew the NDP kid wouldn't win.

WOW. I thought I was the only one!!!

Edited October 9, 2015 by angrypenguin

[dialamah]

I've answered this in another thread (can't remember which), but the short of it is that I absolutely disagree with the NDP on pretty much every single item they believe in, and with a gun to my head I would never vote for anyone named Trudeau. Even though, short term, I would stand to keep a little more money under his "superplan".

Well, thanks for answering again. So, for NDP its ideological dislike, and Liberal its personal due to his father I'm guessing. When PET was PM, I was a teenager, didn't know anything about him. My mom liked him, I think, even though we lived in BC. I remember his "Go Forth and Multiply" moment. At some point in school, we learned about Charters, and the Charter of Rights and Freedoms, but it was really new at the time. Someone here mentioned that they didn't understand how 'voters could forget PET and make the mistake of voting for his son", and I guess its in part because a significant portion of the population weren't even voting at that time, or possibly even born.

I actually voted NDP last federal election just to send a message to the idiot of an MP in my riding. Of course, I knew the NDP kid wouldn't win.

Did you tell him what you did and why? Was he ultimately elected, or did enough people agree with you that he was voted out?

[dialamah]

WOW. I thought I was the only one!!!

Maybe you and he are in the same riding.

[angrypenguin]

Maybe you and he are in the same riding.

They do say its a small world huh?

[Hydraboss]

So, for NDP its ideological dislike

I'd say it's more than dislike. I would say more like diametrically opposed.

and Liberal its personal due to his father I'm guessing. When PET was PM, I was a teenager, didn't know anything about him. My mom liked him, I think, even though we lived in BC. I remember his "Go Forth and Multiply" moment. At some point in school, we learned about Charters, and the Charter of Rights and Freedoms, but it was really new at the time. Someone here mentioned that they didn't understand how 'voters could forget PET and make the mistake of voting for his son", and I guess its in part because a significant portion of the population weren't even voting at that time, or possibly even born.

I live in Alberta and I did in the time of his criminal father too. Trudeau Sr. was a disgrace to this country and Trudeau Jr. will be one as well (although nearly impossible to be as bad as his father). His economics make no sense to me (intentional deficits?) and I'm not a fan at all of his brokerage politics, and I have a sneaking suspicion that even he doesn't believe half of what he says.

Did you tell him what you did and why? Was he ultimately elected, or did enough people agree with you that he was voted out?

His office was pretty accustomed to hearing from me and I know they didn't care. Rajotte was more than useless, but he was in a yellow dog riding in Alberta. Won with 64% I believe.

[ScottM]

I guess the range extends to the percentage of vote as well. 200 or so seats still sounds like a generous reward for 40 per cent of the vote but that's FPTP for you.

I'm pretty sure it would be beyond 40. That's a guess, but a guess is all I have since the site doesn't show percentage ranges. I'd say it would probably take 43% or so to break 200.

[eyeball]

Page 8 is the one I find the most interesting personally. Percentage who may change their vote. Wow. Not a very hard core, dedicated bunch on one side of the spectrum.

I bet they know who they're not voting for. These voters are determined to make their vote as effective as possible. They know they've only got one, they believe they have found a path that gets them at least part way around the deep limitations of FPTP and they intend to take it.

A dedicated hard core group of strategistas - leading a voter's coup d'état.

[CITIZEN_2015]

Liberal lead confirmed again by Nanos (October 9, 2015)

National Ballot - Support for the major federal parties in the nightly Nanos tracking stands at 34.0% for the Liberals, 31.0% for the Conservatives, 25.0% for the NDP, and 4.2% for the Greens nationally. • Accessible Vote – Asked a series of independent questions as to whether they would consider or not consider voting for that party, the Liberals continue to have the highest level of accessible vote at 49.1% followed by the NDP at 42.6%, the Conservatives at 39.2%, the Greens at 24.4%, and the BQ at 31.2% (Quebec only).

Many pollsters showing Liberals at 34% past couple of days and conservatives around 30 to 31%. and NDP at 25% and I believe these are what the numbers are right now.

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/20151008%20Ballot%20TrackingE.pdf

Liberals closing in on NDP in Quebec at 26.5% and NDP at 30% and Conservatives at 21.4%.

Edited October 9, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015

[angrypenguin]

And yet another poll showing the two top parties in a stat. tie.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/284153512/Mainstreet-Research-poll-Oct-9

Edited October 9, 2015 by angrypenguin

[Smeelious]

And yet another poll showing the two top parties in a stat. tie.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/284153512/Mainstreet-Research-poll-Oct-9

That one shows the NDP support in QC lower than both CPC and LPC...yarr.

[SpankyMcFarland]

The Conservatives have several big advantages, turnout wise:

1. Old voters. Nothing else to do.

2. Angry voters. Anger defines the Harper movement. Earl Cowan is the poster boy. This rage gives them the energy

required to arise from their La-Z-Boys at all costs. The response to this post will illustrate the characteristic.

3. Committed voters. Jihadis for Harper. Him or nothing.

4. Ashamed voters. Some have awareness that their beliefs are not of the times and cover up their fanatical allegiances when asked by pollsters. That may be worth a few percentage points. If it happened in the UK with somebody as nice as

Cameron, Lord knows how big the effect is here.

[dialamah]

I live in Alberta and I did in the time of his criminal father too. Trudeau Sr. was a disgrace to this country

I've always wondered why people felt this way because from what I've picked up (after the fact, so to speak) is that he was one of Canada's best PMs in terms of championing human rights and putting Canada onto the world stage. Mind you, this impression is from academics more than voters. But obviously whatever he did that was wrong really made an impression. Perhaps how you feel about Trudeau Sr is how many people feel about Harper. Makes me wonder if hindsight will be kinder to Harper, as it seems to have been to Trudeau.

[dialamah]

Just saw a TV advertisement against Harper and Co, from a third party, Canadians United For Change. Don't recall seeing that kind of advertising in previous elections.

[Hydraboss]

... that he was one of Canada's best PMs in terms of championing human rights and putting Canada onto the world stage..

...and at attempting to destroy one part of the country to benefit others...

...this impression is from academics more than voters.

Of course it is. The "academic world" tends to be (forgive me for using such a stupid phrase), left leaning.

...whatever he did that was wrong really made an impression.

Which was destroy families, their futures, businesses, any hope of Albertans giving a damn about a federation for generations...

Perhaps how you feel about Trudeau Sr is how many people feel about Harper.

I have no doubt it's EXACTLY how people feel about Harper, except PET has hard, cold facts and effects to prove why he was the devil incarnate. Harper has a whole bunch of "this will lead to..." things. That's a significant difference.

Makes me wonder if hindsight will be kinder to Harper, as it seems to have been to Trudeau.

I doubt it. I don't think there is any difference in perception from then to now. If you lived outside the Prairies then, you probably liked PET (worshipped him). If you live in the Prairies now, you'll probably remember Harper favorably. Trudeau Jr will continue to pay the price for his fathers misdeeds in the Prairies for many more years. Watch the Liberals poll numbers and, more importantly, the election results in this province on the 19th.

[Smeelious]

Just saw a TV advertisement against Harper and Co, from a third party, Canadians United For Change. Don't recall seeing that kind of advertising in previous elections.

I thought this sort of thing was a no-no during the actual campaign..

[PIK]

Another union group I would imagine.