Federal Election Polls

poochy · August 12, 2015

Yet he didn't agree to how many debates?

I guess we will see. Most debates are boring, doesn't mean Muclair wont make Harper look bad as usual.

He wouldnt attend that debate in your basement? Im sure there are an infinite number of debates eh wouldnt agree to, but that isnt very relevant.

poochy · August 12, 2015

Yeah, he won't have Calandra to step up and shed a few tears for him as a sideshow/deflection tactic.

Well, you are an expert on not answering questions, so maybe you're right on that point.

The_Squid · August 12, 2015

The "seat tracker" on the CBC site is interesting. Looks like BC could decide whether the NDP or CPC get a minority gov't. The CPC is not well liked in BC anymore. They are probably going to only win a handful of seats out here. People remember things like the Coast Guard base closure... that really hurt them out here, and rightfully so.

Of course, look for a coalition gov't if the CPC get a plurality of seats...

Vancouver King · August 12, 2015

The "seat tracker" on the CBC site is interesting. Looks like BC could decide whether the NDP or CPC get a minority gov't. The CPC is not well liked in BC anymore. They are probably going to only win a handful of seats out here. People remember things like the Coast Guard base closure... that really hurt them out here, and rightfully so.

Of course, look for a coalition gov't if the CPC get a plurality of seats...

Looks like a dozen seats lost by Harper in BC and the NDP to elect about 24 here. If I live to be 100 I will never understand Harper's decision to close Vancouver's Coast Guard facility. Considering the political damage done to his party, it must rate as one of Harper's worst decisions - sacrificing a half dozen MPs to save a few hundred thousand dollars.

The_Squid · August 12, 2015

Looks like a dozen seats lost by Harper in BC and the NDP to elect about 24 here. If I live to be 100 I will never understand Harper's decision to close Vancouver's Coast Guard facility. Considering the political damage done to his party, it must rate as one of Harper's worst decisions - sacrificing a half dozen MPs to save a few hundred thousand dollars.

I am not against cost savings.... but not at the expense of people's lives.

But no one thought that this facility should have been eliminated. It is the busiest commercial port in the country... with plans of expansion... Probably the busiest area for recreational boating in the country as well...

The closure was ridiculously short-sighted. In a busy port, getting even busier, why would you cut CCG services? If anything, they should be expanded!

cybercoma · August 12, 2015

That Nanos poll needs some explaining. They use a 4-week rolling average. The poll is based on 1000 responses, but what they do is drop the oldest 250 responses and add 250 more each week. That's why their results are slow to change and rarely reflect what other polls are reflecting at any given time.

Topaz · August 12, 2015

One of the reporters today was in TO and she said many of the ppl she talked to said that they haven't made up their minds as yet but they do believe in ABC and will wait until election day to see which of the parties, NDP or liberal, is leading and then will vote for that party to put the Tories out of power.

Vancouver King · August 14, 2015

A fresh sounding by Forum/Toronto Star after it's recent controversial (outlier?) poll showing the NDP running first at 39 points.

NDP - 34

Cons- 28

Libs - 27

Bloc - 6

Green- 4

These latest numbers join several other recent polls taken since the debate in measuring a bump for Liberals, an indication the public sees the debate's outcome much differently than most regulars on this forum - ie. the public saw Justin win the debate.

On Guard for Thee · August 14, 2015

I wonder if JT isn't taking a page out of Chretien's book. He will let Harper flail away with his tired and worn talking points about, well the economy may not be so good, but we wouldn't want to change that, and we are the guys who you need to protect you from, ah, some threat of some people who don't like us and hide in every tree. And once everyone tires of that, he will offer some alternatives. Perhaps that is what is upping his poles now, and we shall see what else he may have in mind.

Vancouver King · August 14, 2015

I wonder if JT isn't taking a page out of Chretien's book. He will let Harper flail away with his tired and worn talking points about, well the economy may not be so good, but we wouldn't want to change that, and we are the guys who you need to protect you from, ah, some threat of some people who don't like us and hide in every tree. And once everyone tires of that, he will offer some alternatives. Perhaps that is what is upping his poles now, and we shall see what else he may have in mind.

Here is another factor not mentioned or polled this time around:

Conservatives, we all agree, are in tough this time around compared to previous campaigns. This is due to poor economics, scandal and a hundred other factors common to any decade-old gov't. Will this tougher re-election challenge tend to discourage some Conservative supporters from going to the polls on Oct. 19th?

Tory supporters are fond of saying the polls always under estimate Conservative support by 3-4%. What is to say during this troubled campaign that that "hidden" support, and more, will register their displeasure with Harper's performance by staying home?

On Guard for Thee · August 14, 2015

Here is another factor not mentioned or polled this time around:

Conservatives, we all agree, are in tough this time around compared to previous campaigns. This is due to poor economics, scandal and a hundred other factors common to any decade-old gov't. Will this tougher re-election challenge tend to discourage some Conservative supporters from going to the polls on Oct. 19th?

Tory supporters are fond of saying the polls always under estimate Conservative support by 3-4%. What is to say during this troubled campaign that that "hidden" support, and more, will register their displeasure with Harper's performance by staying home?

That would be a bit of a kink eh if the Un"fair elections act actually backfired?

socialist · August 14, 2015

That Nanos poll needs some explaining. They use a 4-week rolling average. The poll is based on 1000 responses, but what they do is drop the oldest 250 responses and add 250 more each week. That's why their results are slow to change and rarely reflect what other polls are reflecting at any given time.

Justin thinks the economy will be based on love. Drip, drip, drip.

Justin thinks the budget will balance itself. Drip, drip, drip.

What carbon reduction targets does Tom Mulcair have in mind? What is Mulcair afraid to talk about? Drip, drip, drip.

PrimeNumber · August 14, 2015

The Anyone But Conservative (ABC) Canadian Veterans Campaign 2015 will be targeting swing ridings as well as areas with military bases. The campaign will be launching an Indiegogo fundraiser to garner donations. Already, the group is drawing support on Facebook through a page that now has over 12,000 follows.
Then he's got his recent remarks about the Federal Transfer formula being none of Brad Walls business. Friendly fire! Con down, con down!

It's like Harper wants to lose this election.

Edited August 14, 2015 by PrimeNumber

cybercoma · August 14, 2015

Justin thinks the economy will be based on love. Drip, drip, drip.

Justin thinks the budget will balance itself. Drip, drip, drip.

What carbon reduction targets does Tom Mulcair have in mind? What is Mulcair afraid to talk about? Drip, drip, drip.

What does this have to do with polling methodology?

Vancouver King · August 14, 2015

... and the best news for the NDP in the latest Forum poll? The regional Ontario numbers show a vast improvement:

NDP - 33

Cons -31

Libs - 31

If the NDP pick up only a third of seats there Conservatives have no hope of forming gov't.

poochy · August 14, 2015

Then he's got his recent remarks about the Federal Transfer formula being none of Brad Walls business. Friendly fire! Con down, con down!

It's like Harper wants to lose this election.

So he told the truth about something and defended the have nots, and your excited about it? Unhuh, that's the left for you, so principled.

WWWTT · August 14, 2015

What does this have to do with polling methodology?

Don't bother trying.

He's responding in the same manner with a bunch of my comments.

Doesn't make any sense, like he's just rambling on about whatever. I admit that I may sound similar from time to time. But not way out there like this!

I'm just ignoring it.

WWWTT

WWWTT · August 14, 2015

... and the best news for the NDP in the latest Forum poll? The regional Ontario numbers show a vast improvement:

NDP - 33

Cons -31

Libs - 31

If the NDP pick up only a third of seats there Conservatives have no hope of forming gov't.

Yes the numbers are looking very good for the NDP!

Also looking very bad for the conservatives.

WWWTT

PIK · August 14, 2015

When people actually start to pay attention and realize the liberals and NDP are just going to raise taxes and gut the military , things will change. Tom has yet to explain anything and he will have to eventually. Just like trudeau. IMO More liberals will jump to the conservatives then the NDP. And I have to wonder where the east will stand if the other 2 are not going to build new ships or cancel the east pipeline.

Edited August 14, 2015 by PIK

The_Squid · August 14, 2015

Possibly the only way the CPC will be re-elected is through fear-mongering. They have a terrible record to run on, so they have to try and paint the other parties as scary Commies, or some such nonsense. Remember to be scared about terrorists too.

Will it work? With an uninformed electorate, it just might. I give it a 12% chance.

On Guard for Thee · August 14, 2015

When people actually start to pay attention and realize the liberals and NDP are just going to raise taxes and gut the military , things will change. Tom has yet to explain anything and he will have to eventually. Just like trudeau. IMO More liberals will jump to the conservatives then the NDP. And I have to wonder where the east will stand if the other 2 are not going to build new ships or cancel the east pipeline.

I think a lot of people are already paying attention, especially to the Duffy trial. If that keeps going the way it has, (Harper is still trying to convince us only two people knew about the payoff) the jumping will be the CPC soft voters to either opposition party. Adios Steve.

PIK · August 14, 2015

Do you really think people are going to jump ship over this so they can pay more taxes in the end.The average joe does not care. All he cares about is how much money he has left on his pay check. Once people figure out Justin and tom are going to take more of their money. Harper could be looking at a bigger majority. I cant see the people of ONT making the same mistake as they did in the last election.

socialist · August 14, 2015

What does this have to do with polling methodology?

The CBC's involvement is the most troubling. They're no different than a public sector union that campaigns in an election. At least public sector unions tell us were they stand and make no bones about who they oppose; there's no ambiguity there. I wish CBC journos would be as forthright and upfront. CBC should be barred from covering all federal election campaigns because of their glaring conflict of interest, standing to gain millions from the defeat of the CPC when the next budget is presented by Libs, NDP or a coalition of the two. With more funding for them, how could that not possibly colour their news coverage of this election??

waldo · August 14, 2015

Once people figure out Justin and tom are going to take more of their money. Harper could be looking at a bigger majority.

surely you're not perpetuating the myth of "sound Harper Conservative fiscal management"! Since Harper was elected, the federal debt has increased by over $150 billion... Harper is responsible for 25% of the total accumulated debt since Confederation, with most of that post-2008. In 2006-07, the Harper Conservatives inherited a surplus of $13.8 billion — which they turned into a deficit of $5.8 billion within two years. Since then, they have been in deficit each and every year. In 2009-10, the deficit reached its peak of 3.5 per cent of GDP. This is the kind of fiscal management you're trumpeting, hey PIK?

socialist · August 14, 2015

surely you're not perpetuating the myth of "sound Harper Conservative fiscal management"! Since Harper was elected, the federal debt has increased by over $150 billion... Harper is responsible for 25% of the total accumulated debt since Confederation, with most of that post-2008. In 2006-07, the Harper Conservatives inherited a surplus of $13.8 billion — which they turned into a deficit of $5.8 billion within two years. Since then, they have been in deficit each and every year. In 2009-10, the deficit reached its peak of 3.5 per cent of GDP. This is the kind of fiscal management you're trumpeting, hey PIK?

Elections are a popularity contest for the clueless, who happen to outnumber the clued in.

Sad but true, we will witness the end of the democratic experiment in our time.

I hope to be wrong.