Canadian Political Polls

[PoliticalCitizen]

There are literally thousands of US political forums...like this one with a Russia thread:

http://www.politicalforum.com/

Thanks! Tons of stuff to read... What's your nick there?

[bush_cheney2004]

Thanks! Tons of stuff to read... What's your nick there?

You have to guess.....good luck!

[PoliticalCitizen]

You have to guess.....good luck!

So then you come to the Canadian forum to bust your brothers' balls, eh?

Make fun of our inferiority complex?

Edited September 18, 2008 by PoliticalCitizen

[jdobbin]

Latest Decima poll:

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...008&no_ads=

The survey taken over the last four days gave the Tories 36 per cent, down two percentage points from Wednesday's figure, followed by the Liberals with 27, down a single point.

The poll put the NDP at 16 per cent and the Green party at 11, both up a point, while the Bloc remained at eight per cent.

Aside from the one B.C. candidate (in a riding where the NDP had a strong chance of winning), the NDP campaign has run smoothly.

Likewise, there seems to be a lot of goodwill towards the Greens.

I expect that the Tories will have to refocus their attacks on those two parties. The Liberal vote is probably confined to its core.

What I find strange is the bleeding of the Tory vote to left of center parties. I think a few more polls will show if this is just a blip.

[jdobbin]

Strategic Counsel poll:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/sto...PStory/National

At the start of the election campaign, the Tories registered 32-per-cent support in Quebec battleground ridings, the poll shows, with the Liberals at 24 per cent, the NDP at 11 and the Bloc Québécois at 28. Today, the Conservatives are at 26 per cent, just three points ahead of the Liberals, whose support in the province has remained fairly steady. The NDP and the Bloc have gained support at the Conservatives' expense, jumping to 13 and 31 per cent respectively.

And in Ontario:

At the start of the election campaign, the Conservatives had more than a 10-point lead on the Liberals in those ridings, registering 41-per-cent support to the Liberals' 29. Today, both parties sit at 35 per cent, below their 2006 numbers. The NDP registers 18-per-cent support. The only party that has made a significant gain in those ridings compared to 2006 is the Green Party, which has doubled its numbers to 11 per cent.

Seems like the Tories will indeed have to go on the attack with the Greens and NDP who seem to be making gains everywhere.

However, in the Leger poll with a large sample:

http://ca.reuters.com/article/domesticNews...829940720080918

The Leger Marketing survey for the Journal de Montreal put support for the Conservatives in French-speaking Quebec at 34 percent, up from 30 percent two weeks ago.

Support for the Bloc, which holds most of Quebec's 75 seats, rose by two points to 32 percent.

Edited September 18, 2008 by jdobbin

[Moonbox]

The tories aren't competing with the Green or NDP. Any gains they make will be at the Liberal's expense. Go green. Go NDP.

[jdobbin]

The tories aren't competing with the Green or NDP. Any gains they make will be at the Liberal's expense. Go green. Go NDP.

By all accounts the Liberal vote is stable. The NDP and Greens are making gains against the Tories. What do you make of that?

[M.Dancer]

By all accounts the Liberal vote is stable. The NDP and Greens are making gains against the Tories. What do you make of that?

This site http://www.electionprediction.org/2007_fed/index.php show 93 seats too close to call.

A closer look shows the vast majority of the seats are in order Liberal, Bloc Conservative and NDP...

[blueblood]

By all accounts the Liberal vote is stable. The NDP and Greens are making gains against the Tories. What do you make of that?

The fear factor of a Harper majority must still exist.

[jdobbin]

The fear factor of a Harper majority must still exist.

I have seen no indication of that. Seems to me those parties are rising of their own accord.

Fear would be if the Green and NDP support collapsed and move to the Liberals to try and stop the Conservatives. That hasn't happened.

[jdobbin]

Nanos poll shows Tories close to majority.

http://netnewsledger.com/index.php?option=...5&Itemid=26

Results of the latest CPAC-Nanos tracking poll indicate a 9-point lead for the Conservatives who stand nationally at 39%, followed by the Liberals at 30%, the NDP at 18%, the Bloc Québecois at 7%, and the Green Party at 6%. CPAC-Nanos' first set of regional breakdown numbers show the Conservatives as the frontrunners in Quebec (excluding Montreal), Northern and Eastern Ontario, the Prairies and Western Canada, while the Liberals lead in Toronto and the GTA, and remain statistically tied with the Conservatives in the rest of Ontario and the Atlantic provinces.

Decima poll.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/story/2.../exln-poll.html

The four-day Canadian Press/Harris-Decima rolling survey, done in partnership with the CBC, gives the Tories 36 per cent of national support, down two percentage points from the previous day's figure.

The Liberals follow with 27 per cent support, down a single point from the previous day, the survey result suggests.

The poll puts the NDP at 16 per cent and the Green party at 11, both up a point, while the Bloc remained at eight per cent support.

From Ekos.

http://www.ekoselection.com/index.php/2008...tember-18-2008/

Tories 38 Liberals 24 NDP 18 Bloc 8 Greens 12

From Strategic Counsel.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...me=election2008

he latest Battleground 2008 poll, conducted for CTV and The Globe and Mail, shows the Conservatives are having a rocky ride in these key ridings during the campaign:

* a start of 41 per cent (Sept. 4-6)

* a high of 45 per cent (Sept. 9-13)

* and now a dip to 35 per cent (Sept. 15-17)

And for the first time in this campaign, the Liberals are in the lead with 37 per cent support in the Ontario battleground ridings, having started the campaign at 29 per cent (Sept. 4-6).

The NDP is at 19 per cent in this latest poll, and the Green party is at 10 per cent.

Edited September 19, 2008 by jdobbin

[August1991]

Nanos:

Montréal :

PC = 21 % ; PL = 31 % ; Bloc = 23 % ; NPD = 14 % ; PV = 11 %

Québec sauf Montréal :

PC = 32 % ; PL = 20 % ; Bloc = 27 % ; NPD = 15 % ; PV = 6 %

Link - 18 Sept

The PC leads the BQ outside of Montreal. I think that this is the key finding in this Nanos poll.

Expect Duceppe to go nuclear. He's got nothing to lose. Whatever happens, this is his last election. He lost his chance of being Quebec PM to Marois.

[jdobbin]

Latest Decima poll.

http://www.thestar.com/News/Canada/article/502225

A Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey taken over the last four days gives the Tories at 38 per cent, up two percentage points from yesterday's figure, followed by the Liberals with 25, down two points.

The poll puts the NDP at 15 per cent, off a point from the previous day, and the Green party up a point to 12 per cent, with the Bloc steady at eight per cent support.

The survey suggests the Conservatives have gained ground in Ontario, rising to 40 per cent from 37 per cent, while the Liberals dropped a point to 33 per cent, with the NDP and the Greens steady at 15 per cent and 12 per cent respectively.

[Jobu]

New Nanos poll shows Conservatives lead is now 11 points, 39 to 28.

[jbg]

I agree that even before the next session unless Harper calls it immediately, the Liberals will have to consider whether to declare bankruptcy.

However, it is more than just money that is hurting the Liberals. It is about organization and philosophy as well.

Things won't be solved with a quick leadership change as some think.

What would stop the core of the party from forming a new one, leaving the shell behind for its creditors? That way, the former Liberals can continue to press their deeply held convictions, albeit through a new entity. How about a name such as "New Democratic Party?

[jbg]

Cool...and led by an AMERICAN no less!

Elizabeth May is an American?

[Jerry J. Fortin]

Born there, yes.

[jdobbin]

Latest Ipsos poll says majority.

http://www.canada.com/topics/news/features...a6-42f5fc57b4f7

The Conservatives have surged to 40 per cent in support, up two points from a week before, according to the poll, commissioned by Canwest News Service and Global National.

Meanwhile, the Liberals have dipped two points to 27 per cent. The NDP jumped two points to 15 per cent and the Greens dropped one point to sit at 10 per cent nationally.

Latest Strategic Counsel poll says Liberals are losing Ontario.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...me=election2008

The Liberals have slipped six points in the 20 key Ontario ridings compared to the Sept. 15 to 17 poll.

Following are the results of the Sept. 15-17 poll:

* 35 per cent would vote Conservative

* 19 per cent would vote NDP

* 10 per cent would vote Green

* 37 per cent would vote Liberal

Edited September 20, 2008 by jdobbin

[daniel]

Latest Ipsos poll says majority.

Unless it rains.

[jdobbin]

Latest Decima poll pretty much says majority.

http://canadianpress.google.com/article/AL...x8Z1TPLRzIEvsDg

The latest Canadian Press Harris-Decima poll suggests the Liberals have slipped slightly in popular support, with the NDP gaining ground and the front-running Tories holding steady.

The survey taken Sept. 16-19 indicates the Tories have maintained 38 per cent support, followed by the Liberals at 23 per cent, down two points from Friday's figures.

The poll puts the NDP at 17 per cent, up two points from the previous day, the Green party steady at 12 per cent and the Bloc at eight per cent support.

I expect we'll see some higher profile Liberals go down in flames on election day.

[Vancouver King]

Latest Decima poll pretty much says majority.

http://canadianpress.google.com/article/AL...x8Z1TPLRzIEvsDg

I expect we'll see some higher profile Liberals go down in flames on election day.

The fat lady, after warming her vocal chords, has returned to her dressing room.

Here are the latest Nanos numbers. It appears all is not lost, in fact, Liberals are now closer to Harper, according to this respected pollster, than on election night, 2006.

Conservatives - 36%

Liberals - 31

NDP - 20

Green - 7

Bloc - 7

...a blip or a trend?

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election/CPAC...er-21-2008E.pdf

[capricorn]

...a blip or a trend?

Neither. It's a poll with many more to come.

[capricorn]

dp

Edited September 22, 2008 by capricorn

[Smallc]

Percentage of respondents supporting each party

Sept. 17-20

Conservative 39

Liberal 23

NDP 17

Green 11

Bloc 8

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/story/2...oll-harris.html

Is this a blip or a trend?

Edited September 22, 2008 by Smallc

[Bryan]

Is this a blip or a trend?

Up or down, the blips are the trend. The more the numbers appear to change, the more they stay the same over time. Every time CPC looks to be running away, back to 36%. Every time LPC look to be getting back on their feet, back to 23%. Rinse and repeat.