Canadian Political Polls

[jbg]

I don't like a party committed to breaking the country apart in Ottawa.

I know some people just want the Tories defeated but I don't know how the Bloc makes things better.

The correct treatment of the Bloc is as traitors.

[Bryan]

The correct treatment of the Bloc is as traitors.

I agree here. I don't understand why they are even allowed to be involved. They are a Provincial party, not a national one. Their very involvement makes a mockery of the system. People who support them are irrational. A protest a few times, sure I get it. But you literally cannot form a government, every Bloc seat in the house is a complete waste. Quebeckers might not like what the other parties have done, but only they have the power to change it. The Bloc can do nothing other than get in the way.

I'd like to see laws that require a national party to actually run nationally to be considered an official party.

[jbg]

Quebeckers might not like what the other parties have done, but only they have the power to change it. The Bloc can do nothing other than get in the way.

Actually (and forgive me if my ignorance about Canada is showing) they do a lot more damage than that. They make the attainment of a majority government by a national party almost impossible by taking out of circulation between 45 and 60 ridings. If the Bloc gets, say, 50 ridings (less than they hold now) there are 258 ridings left available to the national parties. Take away another 15-30 for the NDP, and that leaves roughly 240 ridings available and in order to form a majority government either the LPOC or the CPC needs 2/3 of the remaining ridings. A pretty daunting task. The Bloc then can throw its weight around and has much more power than Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition. Thus, they are worse than obstructionists; they are minority dictators (again, I may be wrong since as a Yank I know little about how your country works).

I'd like to see laws that require a national party to actually run nationally to be considered an official party.

There were earlier posts about some minimum number of ridings in which a party would have to run candidates. That could have the unintended effect, though, of preventing the formation of another Reform or NDP. That in turn would give unaccountable beaurocrats in each of the "national" parties a humongous amount of power.

[jdobbin]

Liberals continue to slide in polls.

http://canadianpress.google.com/article/AL...EagoPdOZzn0dE0g

A new poll suggests the Liberals are still losing support while the Tories are holding steady and have a 13-point edge.

The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey indicates the Tories remain at 36 per cent, while the Liberals have slipped to 23. The poll suggests the NDP has crept up to 18 per cent, the Greens have gained a point to 12 and the Bloc is off a point at nine.

At 13 points, it is pretty much a majority. The key to majority according to Tom Flanagan was either over 40% in the polls or an 11 point lead over the next party.

[PoliticalCitizen]

The correct treatment of the Bloc is as traitors.

How can an ANTI-FEDERAL party be part of the FEDERAL government?

Isn't it absurd?

[PoliticalCitizen]

Liberals continue to slide in polls.

http://canadianpress.google.com/article/AL...EagoPdOZzn0dE0g

At 13 points, it is pretty much a majority. The key to majority according to Tom Flanagan was either over 40% in the polls or an 11 point lead over the next party.

Go GREENS Go !!!

[jdobbin]

Go GREENS Go !!!

No doubt that they will get a higher popular vote. It may be a few years of Tory governments though before any big Green seat breakthrough.

[myata]

Except of course, they aren't going anywhere. If they do get one seat, it'll be a stellar achievement. Till the electoral system changes (i.e till blue whale swims to Ottawa), it's up to the mainstream center/left parties: Liberals, NDP, Bloc in Quebec, to stop Harper's crowd from laying their hands on their coveted majority.

[Alta4ever]

Except of course, they aren't going anywhere. If they do get one seat, it'll be a stellar achievement. Till the electoral system changes (i.e till blue whale swims to Ottawa), it's up to the mainstream center/left parties: Liberals, NDP, Bloc in Quebec, to stop Harper's crowd from laying their hands on their coveted majority.

You would rather have a party voted in that would break up the country (bloc) then have the CPC gain seats in Quebec? What does that do to help the country? Its just more regionalised politics we have seen for 40 years. Pathetic.

[PoliticalCitizen]

No doubt that they will get a higher popular vote. It may be a few years of Tory governments though before any big Green seat breakthrough.

Except of course, they aren't going anywhere. If they do get one seat, it'll be a stellar achievement. Till the electoral system changes (i.e till blue whale swims to Ottawa), it's up to the mainstream center/left parties: Liberals, NDP, Bloc in Quebec, to stop Harper's crowd from laying their hands on their coveted majority.

A high enough popular vote should give the momentum to a movement to change the current (or should I say archaic?) electoral system.

If that happens the Greens may be just as big a power as BQ or NDP

[blueblood]

A high enough popular vote should give the momentum to a movement to change the current (or should I say archaic?) electoral system.

If that happens the Greens may be just as big a power as BQ or NDP

If we get PR, then why do we need MP's. Since PR benefits the party system, why not just cut the fat and everybody just vote for the party of their choice, which ever party wins gets to run the show hands down.

FPTP is the most fair system we got because it breaks the electorate down into divisions and each division is as equal as another one and gets their fair share in parliament. With PR, we wouldn't need MP's.

[jdobbin]

A high enough popular vote should give the momentum to a movement to change the current (or should I say archaic?) electoral system.

If that happens the Greens may be just as big a power as BQ or NDP

I've seen no indication that there really is support for PR.

[myata]

A high enough popular vote should give the momentum to a movement to change the current (or should I say archaic?) electoral system.

If that happens the Greens may be just as big a power as BQ or NDP

No, won't work in a majoritary system. New party vying for the same (more or less) vote with several others is a strong strenghening factor for the opposite side of the spectrum. The only way a new party could step in in any serious way is if another one, from the same side of political spectrum, would disappear. Much more likely scenarios are that either one party becomes dominant in each part of the spectrum, or multiple parties on the same side split the vote to lend a disproportionate majority to the opposition. This is what's been seen with the Reform/Progressive conservatives, or now with Liberal/Green/NDP.

[PoliticalCitizen]

If we get PR, then why do we need MP's. Since PR benefits the party system, why not just cut the fat and everybody just vote for the party of their choice, which ever party wins gets to run the show hands down.

FPTP is the most fair system we got because it breaks the electorate down into divisions and each division is as equal as another one and gets their fair share in parliament. With PR, we wouldn't need MP's.

There could be a mixed system used, such as the one that was proposed in Ontario.

[PoliticalCitizen]

I've seen no indication that there really is support for PR.

You can be sure that all the Green party supporters would support PR.

That makes it 12% of the voters.

NDP may want that as well.

[PoliticalCitizen]

No, won't work in a majoritary system. New party vying for the same (more or less) vote with several others is a strong strenghening factor for the opposite side of the spectrum. The only way a new party could step in in any serious way is if another one, from the same side of political spectrum, would disappear. Much more likely scenarios are that either one party becomes dominant in each part of the spectrum, or multiple parties on the same side split the vote to lend a disproportionate majority to the opposition. This is what's been seen with the Reform/Progressive conservatives, or now with Liberal/Green/NDP.

The Greens could grow at the expense of both Liberals and NDP, plus by attracting young voters who don't care about politics but do care about the environment.

[jbg]

There could be a mixed system used, such as the one that was proposed in Ontario.

New Zealand has that. From my discussions with at least one New Zealander it isn't working.

[fellowtraveller]

You can be sure that all the Green party supporters would support PR.

That makes it 12% of the voters.

NDP may want that as well.

Not really. The NDP only want PR where it would provide direct and immediate benefit in the form of increased seats. They've had endless opportunities to implement it at their leisure in Saskatchewan and Manitoba and have not.

of course, it would cost them seats there, so.....it ain't gonna happen.

[blueblood]

There could be a mixed system used, such as the one that was proposed in Ontario.

Who would the pr people represent? They don't have anyone to answer to but the party. That is a clearly dangerous and undemocratic way to put someone into office. A party appointing MP's is undemocratic.

If PR was to work it would have to be one winner take all election to pick the party to lead Canada with it's policies. No debate no nothing in the HOC.

You cannot in a democracy have representatives who are only there because of party appointments. Just because the voters determine the number of appointments doesn't matter a whit. That might fly in Russia, but it doesn't fly here.

[jdobbin]

NDP may want that as well.

It would help of the NDP demonstrated how much they want it by doing in in Manitoba.

[jdobbin]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/sto...y/politics/home

An instant online poll conducted by Ipsos Reid after the televised leaders debate showed Mr. Harper as the debate's winner, but his lead and appeal as a Prime Minister both slipped during the event. New Democrat Leader Jack Layton was ranked second with 25 per cent of viewers saying he'd won.

But it was Green Leader Elizabeth May who emerged the real winner of the round-table event to which she was initially excluded. Having fought to be included, and then struggled through some language difficulties in Wednesday night's French debate, Ms. May was third overall in the English debate, claiming 17 per cent of support, said Ipsos Reid President Darrell Bricker.

“I think a political star was born last night,” Dr. Bricker said Friday. “They [respondents] didn't really know what she was going to do. Her first impression was really strong.”

In contrast, the Liberals folded in a heap. Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion was rated highly after the French debate, in which viewers were convinced to take a second look at the Liberals and the Bloc was resuscitated.

Could we be seeing a Turner-like collapse of the Liberals? Could it get worse than it is now? It certainly looks that way.

[jdobbin]

Liberals continue to circle the drain.

http://www.thestar.com/FederalElection/article/511138

The Canadian Press Harris-Decima rolling poll gave the Tories 37 per cent support, 15 points clear of the Liberals at just 22 per cent.

The NDP was breathing down Liberal necks with 18 per cent, followed by the Greens at 12 per cent and the Bloc Quebecois with nine per cent.

Harris-Decima president Bruce Anderson says the Tory lead is more than twice the winning margin the party enjoyed in 2006, even though support levels are largely the same.

Could a tipping point be reached soon where seats in Toronto begin to fall one by one?

[Bryan]

I have to admit this poll is making me smile:

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=4096

Farmers are Twice as Likely to Believe that the Conservatives Would be Most Helpful in Meeting the Needs of the Agriculture Community than Would All of the Other Parties Combined.

Conservative 59% Liberal 17% NDP 10% Bloc 3% Green 7%

[jdobbin]

I have to admit this poll is making me smile:

The only problem is that the Tories have already one a huge amount of the rural votes and seats.

If the Liberal vote continues to collapse, they will see seats in cities as well. The end of the Liberal party as an organization seems highly probable.

I wonder if we will see an Alberta situation emerge in national politics.

[Bryan]

The only problem is that the Tories have already one a huge amount of the rural votes and seats.

If the Liberal vote continues to collapse, they will see seats in cities as well. The end of the Liberal party as an organization seems highly probable.

I wonder if we will see an Alberta situation emerge in national politics.

No, no. It's not the rural vote I'm looking at (although, it is strong). It's FARMERS specifically. You know, the guys who the CWB thing most affects?