Canadian Political Polls

[jdobbin]

La Presse poll says very large Conservative majority.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/sto...Story/WBSpector

The Segma poll, taken for La Presse newspaper, put support for the Conservatives at 43 per cent, which the pollsters said would translate into 183 of the 308 seats in the House of Commons.

It predicted the opposition Liberals would get 25 per cent of the vote, translating into just 62 seats.

The Conservatives had 127 seats in the old Parliament, while the Liberals had 95.

The Bloc Québécois hold 48 seats and the New Democrats have 30 seats.

Canada's election campaign started on Sunday as Harper sought a new mandate after 2 1/2 years in power.

It will only get worse for the Liberals in all likelihood.

[normanchateau]

Honestly, this hidden agenda stuff just doesn't fly with Canadians anymore,

I suspect that the majority of Canadians have little doubt about the religious nut's agenda, hidden or not. Harper's mandatory six months for one marijuana plant legislation is not hidden. Nonetheless, Harper will get his majority because those who oppose social conservatism will be splitting the vote in four directions.

[M.Dancer]

I suspect that the majority of Canadians have little doubt about the religious nut's agenda, hidden or not.

Not sure how or why May's belief's matter but I doubt canadians care much about pot growers either...

[Jerry J. Fortin]

Pot isn't an issue in this election is it?

[normanchateau]

La Presse poll says very large Conservative majority.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/sto...Story/WBSpector

It will only get worse for the Liberals in all likelihood.

The Conservatives need only to get above 40% for a majority and Dion, rejected by francophones annd barely understood by anglophones, has ensured that happens.

Sometime between now and before the 2012 election, assuming lawbreaker Harper actually follows his own laws next time, the Liberals need to acquire not only a new leader but also a merger with another party. The Canadian Alliance and PCs were able to merge thanks to a person of minimal integrity, Peter MacKay breaking his promise, and behind-the-scenes manouevering by people of even less integrity, Brian Mulroney and Belinda Stronach. To re-emerge as a viable party, the Liberals will need to find similar types to engineer a merger and to find a leader who can, like Harper, be sold to Canadians as someone he is not.

[BC_chick]

Sometime between now and before the 2012 election, assuming lawbreaker Harper actually follows his own laws next time, the Liberals need to acquire not only a new leader but also a merger with another party. The Canadian Alliance and PCs were able to merge thanks to a person of minimal integrity, Peter MacKay breaking his promise, and behind-the-scenes manouevering by people of even less integrity, Brian Mulroney and Belinda Stronach. To re-emerge as a viable party, the Liberals will need to find similar types to engineer a merger and to find a leader who can, like Harper, be sold to Canadians as someone he is not.

Regretfully, I agree. We're drifting toward bipartisanship whether we like it or not (in ROC anyway).

Yet most issues are based on fiscal liberalism/conservatism as well as social liberalism/conservatism... that means we need at least four parties in order to make sure we can vote for the party that best represents our ideas.

I've pretty much supported the Liberal Party even though I'm more in sync with NDP's platforms. At times, I've even resented the NDP because of their splitting of the liberal vote (the Ralph Nader factor so to speak).

This time around I'm the most tempted to just vote based on my conscious instead of strategy... but I can't help the nagging truth* that a vote for Layton is just another vote for Harper....

It's so frustrating. The system is broken and no governing party wants to fix it because it would ultimately hurt them by taking away their strategic vote.

I might just stay home this time.

[jdobbin]

I've pretty much supported the Liberal Party even though I'm more in sync with NDP's platforms. At times, I've even resented the NDP because of their splitting of the liberal vote (the Ralph Nader factor so to speak).

It is why CAW told its members to vote Liberal where it would it was likely a split vote would result in a Tory victory.

In this election, I think the Liberals will be crushed and the NDP will benefit very little in seat counts. Perhaps with the end of the Liberal party, they might have a chance in future years.

[jdobbin]

Latest Decima poll:

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/080908/...ab_fedelxn_poll

The Canadian Press Harris-Decima poll, which surveyed 1,000 voters across Canada last week, gave the Tories 36 per cent support, followed by the Liberals at 28 per cent.

The New Democrats followed at 15 per cent, with the Bloc Quebecois and the Greens tied at nine per cent.

[jdobbin]

Latest Ekos poll:

http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive...8/08/c2693.html

Conducted last week, the EKOS IVR poll finds the Conservatives (38%)

already showing a decisive lead over the second place Liberals (26%). The NDP

is in third with 15% of the vote nationally, followed by the Green Party (11%)

and the BQ (10%). These results are very similar to results from other

published polls conducted over a similar timeframe, including our own

PROBIT© poll issued yesterday, which employed a blend of telephone and

internet interviews. Full details of these polls are available now at

www.ekoselection.com.

I think we should see most polls over the 40% mark in the next days.

[BC_chick]

It is why CAW told its members to vote Liberal where it would it was likely a split vote would result in a Tory victory.

How does the average voter make such a prediction though? That kind of direction is more for the political hacks wouldn't you agree?

In this election, I think the Liberals will be crushed and the NDP will benefit very little in seat counts. Perhaps with the end of the Liberal party, they might have a chance in future years.

I wouldn't say it's the end of the Liberal Party. Just the end of Dion...

[jdobbin]

How does the average voter make such a prediction though? That kind of direction is more for the political hacks wouldn't you agree?

In a riding where it is a tight two party race, voters sometimes look at the national campaign. I've met many who voted NDP when they thought it would not going to affect whether it was going to end up electing a Tory candidate.

I wouldn't say it's the end of the Liberal Party. Just the end of Dion...

The Liberal party is quite close to bankruptcy. If it loses half their seats, they are in dire straits.

At least they have settled one of the lawsuits.

[betsy]

The latest poll from La Presse:

OTTAWA - A poll released Monday predicted for the first time that Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper would be able to transform his minority government into a strong majority in the Oct. 14 election.

The Segma poll, taken for La Presse newspaper, put support for the Conservatives at 43 per cent, which the pollsters said would translate into 183 of the 308 seats in the House of Commons.

It predicted the opposition Liberals would get 25 per cent of the vote, translating into just 62 seats.

The Conservatives had 127 seats in the old Parliament, while the Liberals had 95.

The Bloc Québécois hold 48 seats and the New Democrats have 30 seats.

From OttawaSun.com

[jbg]

I might just stay home this time.

As much as I likely disagree with your choice of candidate I feel strongly that "staying home" is the ultimate abdication of responsibility. Let's take the Jews as an example. Our numbers are insignificant, yet we wield political clout. Why? Simple. We vote.

The fact is that the governments of the US, Canada and for that matter most countries is downright terrible. We are great countries in spite of our governments, not because of them. A government cannot create a civil society, one that raises people to be, for the most part, trustworthy, orderly and productive. That task falls to the culture of a country. That is precisely why the US's road in Iraq is rocky. It is also why the US and Canada work so well despite baleful governments.

[jdobbin]

The latest poll from La Presse:

This was already posted in this thread.

[normanchateau]

I might just stay home this time.

Just because the reprehensible Harper is about to win a majority of the MPs despite a majority of Canadians opposing him is no reason not to vote. Let's never ever forget that most Canadians vehemently oppose him and everything he stands for. That's why most Canadians won't vote for CPC as long as Harper leads it.

There needs to be a loud and vocal opposition to Harper's social conservatism, intolerance and wasteful spending. I'm voting strategically by voting for the candidate in my riding who stands the best chance of defeating Harper's candidate. A vocal opposition can still get things done. The Reform Party was remarkably effective in promoting fiscal conservatism while in opposition. It can happen again. A united and effective opposition will prevent Harper from being able to deceive the Canadian electorate in 2012.

I'm not as discouraged as you. The shift to CPC among Canadian voters is not huge even though it translates to a huge increase in seats in the House of Commons. A majority of Canadians, about 60%, still oppose the deplorable Harper. Probably no more than 30% of Canadians actually share his social conservatism, intolerance to homosexuals, jail time for marijuana smokers, religious fundamentalism, ad nauseam. So we're left with the swing vote, about 10% of Canadians, who are voting for Harper this time because Dion has been a disappointment and not because they have suddenly become intolerant, social conservatives like the other 30%. As the economy deteriorates, that 10% will become as disappointed in Harper as they were in Dion.

[normanchateau]

Latest Ekos poll:

Ekos also shows the Conservatives ahead of the Liberals in all age groups, all income levels, both men and women, and all regions except the Maritimes.

The EKOS hybrid telephone-internet panel, PROBIT© , has the Conservatives at 37% and the Liberals at 24% nationally in a poll conducted September 2-4, 2008.

http://www.ekoselection.com/index.php/2008...-logjam-broken/

What's peculiar in my opinion is that the Conservatives are still below 40% in all polls (except the rogue Segma poll) while the Liberals continue to drop steadily. Until a few credible polls show CPC above 40%, Harper is still not in majority territory. I suspect he will be but he's certainly not there yet.

[Alta4ever]

Ekos also shows the Conservatives ahead of the Liberals in all age groups, all income levels, both men and women, and all regions except the Maritimes.

The EKOS hybrid telephone-internet panel, PROBIT© , has the Conservatives at 37% and the Liberals at 24% nationally in a poll conducted September 2-4, 2008.

http://www.ekoselection.com/index.php/2008...-logjam-broken/

What's peculiar in my opinion is that the Conservatives are still below 40% in all polls (except the rogue Segma poll) while the Liberals continue to drop steadily. Until a few credible polls show CPC above 40%, Harper is still not in majority territory. I suspect he will be but he's certainly not there yet.

I doubt the CPC is in Majority territory, I would image that the support is between 35% and 38% for them, why in september would the numbers jump with just the speculation of an election? I hope for a majority, but until election day we really don't know the ture numbers and won't know them until the most important poll, election day.

[August1991]

Watch for a curious (unstable) phenomenon in the polls. As news breaks that the Tories might form a majority, NDP voters in English Canada will move to the Liberals to prevent this. As talk of a majority dies, the NDP will regain its support.

Layton is trying to prevent this leakage by offering himself as the true opponent to Harper.

In effect, the anti-Harper vote is being split three ways in English Canada.

----

Duceppe is trying this strategy in Quebec but he fails to understand that he has lost these voters to teh Conservatives themselves. Outside of Montreal, there is no real anti-Harper vote except in special areas. There is at most a "tanné du Bloc" vote.

[Alta4ever]

Watch for a curious (unstable) phenomenon in the polls. As news breaks that the Tories might form a majority, NDP voters in English Canada will move to the Liberals to prevent this. As talk of a majority dies, the NDP will regain its support.

Layton is trying to prevent this leakage by offering himself as the true opponent to Harper.

In effect, the anti-Harper vote is being split three ways in English Canada.

----

Duceppe is trying this strategy in Quebec but he fails to understand that he has lost these voters to teh Conservatives themselves. Outside of Montreal, there is no real anti-Harper vote except in special areas. There is at most a "tanné du Bloc" vote.

Not four and five?

[normanchateau]

I doubt the CPC is in Majority territory,

It depends on whether the September polls hold. According to trendlines (September 9, 2008), a straight conversion of all September polls to date (including EKOS and Segma) yields:

CPC 171 seats

Liberals 74 seats

BQ 32 seats

NDP 30 seats

Independent 1 seat

[Alta4ever]

It depends on whether the September polls hold. According to trendlines (September 9, 2008), a straight conversion of all September polls to date (including EKOS and Segma) yields:

CPC 171 seats

Liberals 74 seats

BQ 32 seats

NDP 30 seats

Independent 1 seat

We don't know for sure what the CPC will do, but I do hope it turns out in a majority.

[jdobbin]

I doubt the CPC is in Majority territory, I would image that the support is between 35% and 38% for them, why in september would the numbers jump with just the speculation of an election? I hope for a majority, but until election day we really don't know the ture numbers and won't know them until the most important poll, election day.

I think the trend so far is to massive majority. The first week has not been a banner week for the Liberals at all and many candidates were only nominated yesterday with a few more to go.

[jdobbin]

We don't know for sure what the CPC will do, but I do hope it turns out in a majority.

I say they are headed for around 192 seats and a total collapse of the Liberal party and probably its destruction as a party in the future.

[jdobbin]

Watch for a curious (unstable) phenomenon in the polls. As news breaks that the Tories might form a majority, NDP voters in English Canada will move to the Liberals to prevent this. As talk of a majority dies, the NDP will regain its support.

We'll see. It certainly looks like the collapse of the Liberal party in the election. 50 seats might be hopeful.

[Alta4ever]

I say they are headed for around 192 seats and a total collapse of the Liberal party and probably its destruction as a party in the future.

I think the party brand is stronger then that.