Final predictions thread for 2025 election?

[CouchPotato]

I really thought the PPC was going to win a majority. 😭

[SpankyMcFarland]

Kenney is trying to make out that the Ford-Poilievre thang is just about personalities but that’s hard to believe given the history of the party. 

[BeaverFever]

PP still at risk of losing his riding and trailing in votes as the press accurately reported 

Will he resign?  He has always been personally unpopular with Canadians and has consistently polled lower than the Conservative Party does as a whole. People don’t like his toxic personality and his toxic MAGA hat wearing chief-turned campaign manager who alienated a lot of provincial conservatives with her threats and insults over the years, over tiny petty little perceived and imagined slights.  Doug Ford and Tim Houston both conservative premiers did not come out to support him as a result. 
 

Sounds like PP has turned to poopoo and is ready to be flushed. 

[CouchPotato]

Just now, BeaverFever said:

Sounds like PP has turned to poopoo and is ready to be flushed. 

Are you a conservative?

[WestCanMan]

18 minutes ago, BeaverFever said:

Funny how in your worldview  all the people with high education and high paying jobs based on knowledge and talent are low IQ while the people with little to no education doing low skill labour are high IQ. 

Funny how in my worldview the dumbest cultists in NA have sub-50 IQ's. 

I dunno what's so funny about that.

Look at your last post, trying to prove that Carney isn't a liar, dummy. .

You just proved that you're a credulous, low-IQ liar and here you are completely oblivious. 

Thanks for that, I guess. 

[CdnFox]

8 minutes ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

Kenney is trying to make out that the Ford-Poilievre thang is just about personalities but that’s hard to believe given the history of the party. 

it kind of is but not personalities between ford and PP per se. His campaign manager used to work for Ford and that relationship ended VERY badly.  And when she signed on with the feds she basically sent a note to the ontario conservatives saying "if you've ever worked for ford, don't bother applying for the CPC".  

So that's where the bad blood is.  And that's why ford and his little yappy dog are trying to say PP's campaign was SOOOO bad.  They want it to reflect on not just him but the campaign manager most of all. 

[CdnFox]

10 minutes ago, BeaverFever said:

PP still at risk of losing his riding and trailing in votes as the press accurately reported 

It's possible. That long form ballot sure as hell doesn't Help.

Quote

Will he resign?  He has always been personally unpopular with Canadians and has consistently polled lower than the Conservative Party does as a whole.

Are you out of your teeny tiny little mind? He got almost identical public support as carney did. They are about 1% apart. As many people wanted him as who wanted carney. It looks like he's going to be within about 10 to 15 seats, this is not a major victory for the liberals this is barely winning. No prime minister has gotten as high a score as he in previous elections did unless you go all the way back to Mulroney. 

He is every bit as popular as carney is and without having to steal block and NDP voters which are likely to return to their respective parties in the next election.

Meanwhile he'll probably have about 2 years to reflect on what he did wrong and improve. And carney is just going to deliver the same that Trudeau did and people will catch on relatively quickly

He will have to answer some questions and he's going to have to admit that he made mistakes and he's going to have to look like he's sorry about that. But other than that he did amazingly well and people are not going to be excited about getting rid of him

 

[BeaverFever]

5 minutes ago, WestCanMan said:

Funny how in my worldview the dumbest cultists in NA have sub-50 IQ's. 

I dunno what's so funny about that.

Look at your last post, trying to prove that Carney isn't a liar, dummy. .

You just proved that you're a credulous, low-IQ liar and here you are completely oblivious. 

Thanks for that, I guess. 

Lol no you’re the wacked out conspiracy kook. The clearest sign of a low IQ is dropping out of high school and subscribing to insane conspiracies 

[BeaverFever]

1 minute ago, CdnFox said:

It's possible. That long form ballot sure as hell doesn't Help.

Are you out of your teeny tiny little mind? He got almost identical public support as carney did. They are about 1% apart. As many people wanted him as who wanted carney. It looks like he's going to be within about 10 to 15 seats, this is not a major victory for the liberals this is barely winning. No prime minister has gotten as high a score as he in previous elections did unless you go all the way back to Mulroney. 

He is every bit as popular as carney is and without having to steal block and NDP voters which are likely to return to their respective parties in the next election.

Meanwhile he'll probably have about 2 years to reflect on what he did wrong and improve. And carney is just going to deliver the same that Trudeau did and people will catch on relatively quickly

He will have to answer some questions and he's going to have to admit that he made mistakes and he's going to have to look like he's sorry about that. But other than that he did amazingly well and people are not going to be excited about getting rid of him

 

If he doesn’t win his seat what will he do?  Force one of his MPs to resign so he can run in a by-election?  People don’t like PP even if they like conservatives. Meanwhile Carney is more popular than the liberal party is. PP has the opposite problem. 

[TreeBeard]

3 minutes ago, BeaverFever said:

If he doesn’t win his seat what will he do?  Force one of his MPs to resign so he can run in a by-election?  People don’t like PP even if they like conservatives. Meanwhile Carney is more popular than the liberal party is. PP has the opposite problem. 

He will convince someone in a safe seat to retire and take their seat in an expensive byelection. 
 

But he blew a 25% lead over the Libs.  How does his party keep him on after this humiliating defeat?

Edited Tuesday at 05:06 AM by TreeBeard

[Moonlight Graham]

On 4/27/2025 at 9:35 PM, Moonlight Graham said:

The polls are saying a weak Liberal majority:  https://338canada.com/

I think the Liberals will win.  If so I hope a minority.

PP has ran a really bad campaign.  You've got to be a brain-dead fool to run on a Trumpian "Canada First" election slogan in a country that hates Trump more than ever, and also promise to use the notwithstanding clause for the first time ever for the feds.  I agree with "Canada First" in principle, but just don't use a Trump slogan if most of the country hates the guy FFS.

I think Trump cooked the CPC's chances and PP didn't do anything to quell the fears of Canadians that he's pro-Trump.

I say hello from the future.

[CdnFox]

1 minute ago, BeaverFever said:

If he doesn’t win his seat what will he do?  Force one of his MPs to resign so he can run in a by-election?  

That is the tradition. That's what the conservatives liberals and ndp have done in the past in such circumstances.

2 minutes ago, BeaverFever said:

 People don’t like PP even if they like conservatives.

They don't have to like him. They have to believe enough in him to vote for him. And they did. He got as many votes as carney did or at least within a percentage point. Any damn near took as many seats too

If the election have gone on for even another week I think we'd be looking at reversal of those numbers given the trends that were happening. As it is he strongly outperformed the polling for almost the entire time. If the poles are to be believed he overcame a 12-point deficit to come back and damn near win it.

I don't think he's going anywhere especially seeing his in a minority government they could call an election at any time and the last thing we need to be doing right now is going through a leadership race

2 minutes ago, TreeBeard said:

 

But he blew a 25% lead over the Libs.  How does his party keep him on after this humiliating defeat?

No, he blew a 25% lead over Trudeau.

Unfortunately he didn't get to run against Trudeau

. You can lie to your heart's content if it makes you feel better but all that tells me is that you are a poor person and you are afraid of what he's going to do next time

[CdnFox]

1 minute ago, Moonlight Graham said:

I say hello from the future.

And some of what you said is true but it turns out that Poilievre ran a good campaign. He scored higher than any other conservative leader going back to Mulroney, he added 30 seats, and he came within a couple of seats of beating the liberals.

How much better do you expect him to do. The liberals only did as well as they did because they were able to steal the NDP voters and the block voters because of trump. Without that we'd be talking about prime minister Poilievre right now.

 

[Moonlight Graham]

12 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

And some of what you said is true but it turns out that Poilievre ran a good campaign. He scored higher than any other conservative leader going back to Mulroney, he added 30 seats, and he came within a couple of seats of beating the liberals.

How much better do you expect him to do. The liberals only did as well as they did because they were able to steal the NDP voters and the block voters because of trump. Without that we'd be talking about prime minister Poilievre right now.

PP right now is losing his own seat to a complete no-name Liberal.  The NDP/Green voters bounced to the Liberals because they fear PP is too Trumpy because that's what happens when you have a slogan like "Canada First" and promise to use the notwithstanding clause to override the courts.  Everything I said was correct.

[CdnFox]

1 minute ago, Moonlight Graham said:

PP right now is losing his own seat to a complete no-name Liberal. 

And? He was targeted by a nasty protest that turned his ballot into a 2 m joke, and the liberals swept that region

On the flip side you got over 41% of the popular vote, he added 30 seats, and he held the liberals to a mere 13 or 14 seat lead which means the new democrats Won't even have enough seats to support them

.

3 minutes ago, Moonlight Graham said:

The NDP/Green voters bounced to the Liberals because they fear PP is too Trumpy because that's what happens when you have a slogan like "Canada First" and promise to use the notwithstanding clause to override the courts.  Everything I said was correct.

No. They bounced because of trump. That's it pure and simple. Poilievre had already taken a good hunk of nDP supporters and the results reflect that especially in British Columbia where he took more NDP seats from the NDP than the liberals did

But the remaining NDP and the block hate conservatives and would hate conservatives no matter who was in charge so when the trump scared them and they felt the need for unity they went with the liberals. It's that simple

You can pretend otherwise but he actually did quite good. As many Canadian voters thought he would be the best prime minister as Kearney and he won damn near as many ridings. And there aren't any other parties that are going to come knocking for their voters back the way that the liberals will face in the next election with the block and the NDP and even the greens.

This just means we have to wait a couple years and then we'll have another crack at it

[WestCanMan]

28 minutes ago, BeaverFever said:

Lol no you’re the wacked out conspiracy kook. The clearest sign of a low IQ is dropping out of high school and subscribing to insane conspiracies 

The clearest sign of losing an argument is switching the topic to "unsubstantiated allegations" 😘

And if you weren't a low-IQ cultist you wouldn't find yourself on the losing side every single time, collusion boy.

And speaking of collusion boys, you must have been mortified to find out that 9 LPOC MP's were colluding with China. (of course you weren't, you're a low-IQ cultist)

Sorry, Beavey, but Carney was caught LYING a bunch of times.

He was NOT working for Martin when Martin balanced the budget, period. He went to work for Martin after that happened. I.e., he lied. 100%. Why is it so important for you to dodge your way around that?

He did not avert the 08 recession for Canadians. He was closer to #4 on the totem pole in that regard. It's revolting that he'd try to take the credit for that, and it's even more revolting that CBC does it for him:

• Liberal leadership contender Mark Carney helped steer two G7 economies through turbulent times and his track record as a central banker earned him praise and offers to serve on the board of directors of some prominent businesses, non-profits and philanthropic organizations, including one of Canada's largest publicly traded companies, Brookfield Asset Management (BAM).

That's how CBC broached the topic of his lie about moving Brookfield if you can believe it. The article actually starts with Carney's dick in the author's mouth. 

There are other major lies that he told, including his slander of the Globe and Mail about his JCCC meeting, and lying about what Trump mentioned in their infamous phone call... 

Carney's a serial liar, plain and simple, and you need to stop trying to deny it. 

So now, when he tells Canadians things in the future, we will always have to guess how close his words are to being 180° away from the truth, while knowing that it happens about 5 times every two months.

[SpankyMcFarland]

Thank goodness that Poilievre, Carney and Singh all made reassuringly normal speeches confirming the election result. 

[SpankyMcFarland]

Poilievre is still a long way behind in Carleton. 

[CdnFox]

17 minutes ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

Thank goodness that Poilievre, Carney and Singh all made reassuringly normal speeches confirming the election result. 

What do you mean thank goodness? When has it ever been a different in Canada?

3 minutes ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

Poilievre is still a long way behind in Carleton. 

I don't see how he can win it at this point. Embarrassing but he's going to wind up having to pick up a seat in the by-election

[SpankyMcFarland]

Something that seems to bother no other Canadian whatsoever: divide Ontario into halves by area along a meridian, north to south. ‘Southwestern’ Ontario lies entirely east of that line, including the so-called University of ‘Western’ Ontario. I know nearly everybody lives in that little dangly bit but still.

 

Edited Tuesday at 06:10 AM by SpankyMcFarland

[Moonlight Graham]

1 hour ago, CdnFox said:

And? He was targeted by a nasty protest that turned his ballot into a 2 m joke, and the liberals swept that region

On the flip side you got over 41% of the popular vote, he added 30 seats, and he held the liberals to a mere 13 or 14 seat lead which means the new democrats Won't even have enough seats to support them

NDP are projected to have enough to support the Liberals.  Thankfully the Bloc won't have the balance of power.

1 hour ago, CdnFox said:

No. They bounced because of trump. That's it pure and simple. Poilievre had already taken a good hunk of nDP supporters and the results reflect that especially in British Columbia where he took more NDP seats from the NDP than the liberals did

But the remaining NDP and the block hate conservatives and would hate conservatives no matter who was in charge so when the trump scared them and they felt the need for unity they went with the liberals. It's that simple

You can pretend otherwise but he actually did quite good. As many Canadian voters thought he would be the best prime minister as Kearney and he won damn near as many ridings. And there aren't any other parties that are going to come knocking for their voters back the way that the liberals will face in the next election with the block and the NDP and even the greens.

This just means we have to wait a couple years and then we'll have another crack at it

PP lost.  The Liberals have led the worst run federal government in our lifetimes and PP and CPC still lost to the same terrible party.  That's not a win.  They blew a 25 point lead since Christmas to a political rookie.

Clearly the vast majority of the country hated Trudeau more than PP, but PP isn't liked by a large chunk of the country either and did himself no favours this campaign.  Again, you have to be pretty ignorant and foolish to run on Trump-like slogans and policies at the same time that Trump is threatening to annex Canada & blasting us with tariffs and is therefore hated by everybody in Canada who isn't already a diehard conservative.

[CdnFox]

8 hours ago, Moonlight Graham said:

NDP are projected to have enough to support the Liberals.  Thankfully the Bloc won't have the balance of power.

Yes that was disappointing. Didn't look that way last night

Quote

PP lost.  The Liberals have led the worst run federal government in our lifetimes and PP and CPC still lost to the same terrible party.  That's not a win.  They blew a 25 point lead since Christmas to a political rookie.

The liberals claim they were a 100% different party and people believed it in Ontario. Not much we can do about that level of stupidity

 

Quote

Clearly the vast majority of the country hated Trudeau more than PP, but PP isn't liked by a large chunk of the country either and did himself no favours this campaign.  Again, you have to be pretty ignorant and foolish to run on Trump-like slogans and policies at the same time that Trump is threatening to annex Canada & blasting us with tariffs and is therefore hated by everybody in Canada who isn't already a diehard conservative.

He got more votes than any conservative leader going back to 1988.

Yes, the trump-like slogans and in fact any slogans was stupid. Although to be honest that was the least of it, the real stupidity was Making everything about Justin Trudeau for the last year and insisting on a carbon tax election that the liberals could disarm in 2 seconds with a pen stroke. Spending a few million dollars going after jag meat so that his vote collapsed probably wasn't the brightest thing either

Those were his real mistakes. And actually I did say that to people last year, making everything about a carbon tax reaction was utterly stupid. The liberals screwed up and so many areas why would you try and make it about one that people are not happy with but not insanely upset about it either.

So when that vanished he had to rework his entire effort and we lost every penny that went into advertising the previous year.

I think his other big mistake was not presenting himself as a team. Chretien Face the same problem when he ran for government initially, many many people did not like him at all. So what he did was surround himself with a good team and anyone who said they didn't like him he would say yeah but the team is solid you can trust them. Anyone who didn't like the team he'd say yeah but I'm in charge and I'll take care of it and make sure it works. And that was very effective

The conservatives actually have a lot of solid talent on their bench and they should have been putting forward some of their star players a lot more and a lot sooner

[eyeball]

1 hour ago, CdnFox said:

And actually I did say that to people last year

You say a lot but what stands out was when you said PP would enjoy 3 terms, at least, and end up being Canada's greatest PM.  Trump's victory was certainly a reinforcing signpost that the right-wing was on the rise everywhere and PP's future looked bright indeed but I still never gave him more than one term at best even in those days.

I remained pretty steadfast in my sense that Canada's natural governing ideology would reassert itself soon enough following this right-wing ascendancy.  Of course no one could have foreseen just how soon that would be as Trump became even more bellicose and ridiculous and as overtly right wing as possible.  Other events like Trump's apparent alliances with oligarchs, autocrats and especially Putin likewise pointed at a the sort of dark future the right-wing was swaggering towards.  The entire right-wing brand was on full blown display everywhere and Canadians blanched.

It wasn't easy but I maintained my faith in the ideological sensibilities of Canadians and my hope for a minority result and woke up today to find it was worth it. My representative even won and will indeed maintain a measure of influence in Parliament!  You gotta love it when a plan works.

It's a better day and look at that, the sun just came out. 🤣

[SpankyMcFarland]

Poilievre was badly beaten in his own riding. It wasn’t that close. What a result. 

[CdnFox]

1 hour ago, eyeball said:

You say a lot but what stands out was when you said PP would enjoy 3 terms, at least, and end up being Canada's greatest PM.  

And he may yet. The fact that the fight has been delayed for about a year and a half because of trump doesn't change that.

Things aren't going to get better under carney. He will be the same as Justin and things will get worse. And he will sell us out to the Americans and we'll get a bad trade deal. And within a couple of years the NDP will have a new leader and will be getting his voters back and people will once again be sick of watching Canada die under the liberals and the trade deal will be done and trump will no longer be an issue

So carney bought them a couple of years. A remarkable achievement there's no doubt. But it's a couple of years

1 hour ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

Poilievre was badly beaten in his own riding. It wasn’t that close. What a result. 

The NDP and liberals joined together to beat him. And let's face it that's not exactly a conservative friendly area. But yes he got walloped there's no two ways about it