Cancellation of the F-35 contract is now a necessity: when and how, not if

[Prime Rogue Inc]

I concur entirely - it's a debt trap and the killswitch makes things that much worse. We should have ordered the damn Gripen in the first place considering our most likely kinetic adversary has always been the US! 

[myata]

3 hours ago, ironstone said:

I refuse to resort to personal insults.😇

"disabled in all senses" is not an insult, it's a condition. Unless you already know the diagnosis. Congrats!

Edited March 10 by myata

[Aristides]

Probably a bit late to get out of the F-35 contract but maybe we should have gone for the Gripen E as an interm and joined the UK, Italy and Japan on the 6th gen Tempest project as a future option.

[myata]

30 minutes ago, Aristides said:

a bit late to get out of the F-35 contract

We must understand what it means though: the entire fleet can be compromised or disabled whenever U.S. administration decides to override our decision. No consultation and no recourse. Would that still be called "sovereignty"?

[Doowangle]

4 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

This also makes sense.

A cancellation would send a clear message though.

So we should cancel the order and not order anymore? 🤔

I would say keep the order, and take the safest assumption about what ends up happening. All of this blows over when the market drops too much for Trump to take anymore, he makes some little deal with Canada, celebrates it as some big victory, and we are right back to the status quo. Democrats in the US get congress in two years or so as result of all the chaos, and again, back to the status quo because Trump will be out of office in four years and there is no second Trump on earth.
 

No other US government would be dumb enough to do any of this stuff. It’s an aberration and if we make all decisions based on this moment, we will find ourselves in a worse position down the road when things get back to baseline. 

[herbie]

4 hours ago, TreeBeard said:

You’re being extremely naive if you think anyone can just hack into an F35 and call it their own. 

Anyone can't... I work in IT, "anyone" can't eve find their computer's start button, let alone know what a web browser is. The ones who can do things like that are unique.
Plus, unlike the hackers that make computers explode in CIA offices and orbital satellites that look up your skirt, they have to get their hands on an F35 to start with.

Edited March 11 by herbie

[TreeBeard]

15 minutes ago, herbie said:

I work in IT

Yeah, you can tell people to turn their computer off and on.  I doubt you have the expertise in hacking American military weapon systems.  

[herbie]

1 minute ago, TreeBeard said:

Yeah, you can tell people to turn their computer off and on.  I doubt you have the expertise in hacking American military weapon systems.

Did I claim that ability? But you're welcome to hand me an F35 and I'll give it my best shot.

[Aristides]

1 hour ago, myata said:

We must understand what it means though: the entire fleet can be compromised or disabled whenever U.S. administration decides to override our decision. No consultation and no recourse. Would that still be called "sovereignty"?

That's the rumour but I've seen nothing that confirms it. 

[myata]

10 hours ago, Aristides said:

That's the rumour but I've seen nothing that confirms it. 

It is confirmed by the fact that U.S. stopped maintenance of the electronic warfare/contermeasures components in the F-16 given to Ukraine making them vulnerable to enemy fire in operation. This is not a "could be" speculation at this point moved past that to real, practical risks and a critical vulnerability, in some realistic scenarios.

Edited March 11 by myata

[Aristides]

14 hours ago, Dougie93 said:

bad news for Sweden ; the Gripen is powered by an American engine,  the GE F414

Yes, modified and built by Volvo.

[myata]

15 hours ago, Dougie93 said:

also factor in the cancellation penalty in the contract at this point, add that to the price

Every contract has a force majeur clause and a concealed critical vulnerability together with a factual precedent may just count as an eligible cause. Litigate it into the ground.

[Doowangle]

16 hours ago, Dougie93 said:

well it's grim for Canada indeed then, because becoming America's permanent enemy is a dark future,

might as well forget about fighter jets altogether if that's the case, since you won't be able to afford them

if you're planning on being America's permanent enemy then you should go fully asymmetrical,

start building your own drones like the Ukrainians as your new model air force.

if you're America's enemy, then there is no more reason to project power overseas,

instead you would need a large conscript territorial defence force,

America could easily destroy any conventional forces like jets & ships, so don't waste money on those

how you would trade internationally against an American naval blockade ; not sure, that's a tough one

since neither Europe nor China could actually save you from across the oceans

suffice to say, you might be doing Trumps work for him as America's enemy,

when large numbers of Canadians start to flee to America as economic refugees

I would suspect that Canada as America's permanent enemy is the end of Canada by default

ultimately you're better off being the 51st state than you are being giant frozen Cuba

Even asymmetrical warfare war-gaming is pointless in this scenario. That kind of warfare works if you are operating from very far away, but the US operating on the border, with an entire country as an unsinkable aircraft carrier? With permanent annexation being the goal, rather than temporary occupation? Forget about it. Even the Taliban + the Vietcong wouldn't have been able to succeed under those conditions. At that point migration is the only way out. 

[myata]

Can we recall that not even two months back these discussions would be seen only in post-apocalyptic fiction? Wow. Did someone tweak with the matrix?

Edited March 11 by myata

[Dougie93]

1 hour ago, Doowangle said:

Even asymmetrical warfare war-gaming is pointless in this scenario. That kind of warfare works if you are operating from very far away, but the US operating on the border, with an entire country as an unsinkable aircraft carrier? With permanent annexation being the goal, rather than temporary occupation? Forget about it. Even the Taliban + the Vietcong wouldn't have been able to succeed under those conditions. At that point migration is the only way out. 

well it's not generally understood that the Vietcong did not succeed,

there were three major offensives led by the Vietcong, including Tet 68',

and they were all catastrophic failures

then the CIA led Phoenix Program had essentially wiped the Vietcong out by 1972,

it was only after American withdrawal and removal of air support, 

that the North Vietnamese Army was able to take South Vietnam by conventional force.

but in the case of Canada, I've said that it is more relevant to look to a British civil war, which was Northern Ireland

Canada is like a giant Ulster, already divided into factions,

so the more realistic scenario is Canadian v. Canadian, essentially Republican v. Loyalist

with America backing the Republican faction as Americans did in Northern Ireland,

and frankly, that war ended in a stalemate, followed by negotiated settlement.

considering the entrenched vested interests which control the Government of Canada,

I don't think it's a given that the Government of Canada would resist in the event of invasion,

much more likely that the Government of Canada would capitulate,

then if there was an Anti-American insurgency,

it would be Canadian troops who be ordered to conduct the COIN operations against the insurgents

suffice to say, I wouldn't foresee a large American occupation force with boots on the ground

America would more likely operate through proxies, supporting them with the NSA & CIA

Edited March 11 by Dougie93

[WestCanMan]

22 hours ago, myata said:

If your adversary can disable them in few keystrokes, what would be the point of the cost? You seriously can't think clearly any longer only in cliches?

Because you thought that we could use the paltry number of F-35s that we buy from America to defend ourselves in a war against them?

FYI the US has more people in the Green Berets, Navy Seals, Delta Force, 75th Rangers, Marine Raiders, etc than we have people in our entire military, including non-combatants. That's air, sea, and land. They have more main battle tanks than we have armoured vehicles of any stripe. 

It's like cub scouts vs cops. F-35s won't make a dent lol. 

[Aristides]

Just now, WestCanMan said:

Because you thought that we could use the paltry number of F-35s that we buy from America to defend ourselves in a war against them?

FYI the US has more people in the Green Berets, Navy Seals, Delta Force, 75th Rangers, Marine Raiders, etc than we have people in our entire military, including non-combatants. That's air, sea, and land. They have more main battle tanks than we have armoured vehicles of any stripe. 

It's like cub scouts vs cops. F-35s won't make a dent lol. 

That isn't realistic but it could give the US control over who else we can use them against. Like Russia or any other dictatorship Trump falls in love with.

[Dougie93]

44 minutes ago, WestCanMan said:

Because you thought that we could use the paltry number of F-35s that we buy from America to defend ourselves in a war against them?

FYI the US has more people in the Green Berets, Navy Seals, Delta Force, 75th Rangers, Marine Raiders, etc than we have people in our entire military, including non-combatants. That's air, sea, and land. They have more main battle tanks than we have armoured vehicles of any stripe. 

It's like cub scouts vs cops. F-35s won't make a dent lol. 

all these Canadian lefties assume that the Laurentian Elite ruling class is going to fight the Americans for them,

when in fact the ruling political class would sell Canadians down the river to save their own skins,

there is an assumption that the Canadian military would fight the Americans on behalf of the Canadian left,

I'm skeptical as to that as well,

more likely the Canadian military would simply obey the orders of the political elites,

the Liberals have already destroyed the Canadian economy & military,

and nobody in government has ever revolted against it, quite the opposite;

as no matter how crazy the orders that have been coming down from Ottawa,

the Canadian military chain of command has simply saluted and obeyed those orders to the letter,

not that I haven't known a few good officers over the years in the combat arms,

but the reality is that the Canadian officer class are fundamentally careerist government apparatchiks,

the CAF has been an armed civil service for decades now

Edited March 11 by Dougie93

[Dougie93]

45 minutes ago, myata said:

Can we recall that not even two months back these discussions would be seen only in post-apocalyptic fiction? Wow. Did someone tweak with the matrix?

I've been predicting this outcome for years now,

I've said right here on this forum many times,

that Canada was going to get frozen out, caught in no man's land between America & China

I've said that there was going to be a massive backlash against Woke Progressive lunacy,

resulting in widespread chaos to include civil disorder,

Edited March 11 by Dougie93

[xul]

19 hours ago, Dougie93 said:

well it's grim for Canada indeed then, because becoming America's permanent enemy is a dark future,

Taking precautionary measures after American president threated to annex Canada = choose to become American's permanent enemy?

Such kind of American mindset is the root cause that Trumpism will outlive Trump himself.

If Trump time-travelled back to 1945 and became the 33rd US president instead of Harry Truman, he would also open American domestic market to Europe, Canada, Japan...and even China if Mao allowed him to build a Trump Tower in the mid of Tiananmen Square😜, to buy friends to win the cold war against the Soviet Union.

In 2020 when Biden became US president, the US national debt is $23.2 trillion, but by the end of 2024 when Sleepy Joe got kicked off the White House, US governmental debt had reached $36.4 trillion. No empire can last long with such amount of debt increasing. Trump just does what US needs to do to survive. I truly don't think people, Canadian, European, Chinese...should hate Trump or US for what it is doing, but US should also not hate other countries for doing in their best interests.

 

Quote

might as well forget about fighter jets altogether if that's the case, since you won't be able to afford them

if you're planning on being America's permanent enemy then you should go fully asymmetrical,

start building your own drones like the Ukrainians as your new model air force.

if you're America's enemy, then there is no more reason to project power overseas,

instead you would need a large conscript territorial defence force,

America could easily destroy any conventional forces like jets & ships, so don't waste money on those

how you would trade internationally against an American naval blockade ; not sure, that's a tough one

since neither Europe nor China could actually save you from across the oceans

suffice to say, you might be doing Trumps work for him as America's enemy,

when large numbers of Canadians start to flee to America as economic refugees

I would suspect that Canada as America's permanent enemy is the end of Canada by default

ultimately you're better off being the 51st state than you are being giant frozen Cuba

You are right on almost everything except....just assume US is able to pull all its military forces from other regions in the world off and uses them on Canada, for both invasion and blockade for prevention of military interventions from other great powers. What Canada needs to do is just to buy some nukes from Kim Jong Un before the blockade is established, then what US needs to do is to weigh up the options of being a peace loving country with only 50 states or being a giant frozen Cuba with no future at all.😂

If things were that easy, Trump could just say these to Mexico then annex it; then to Brazil and other South American countries to annex them; then African countries; then European countries; then India, Russia, China....then Trump would make US the empire of the world...

Just think why he doesn't do these? Obviously it isn't because he has higher moral compass.

Edited March 11 by xul

[Dougie93]

4 minutes ago, xul said:

 What Canada needs to do is just to buy some nukes from Kim Jong Un before the blockade is established,

there's no need for that, since Canada possesses plenty of plutonium from the CANDU reactors

lithium detueride is easily fabricated in this day & age

thermonuclear weapons are 1950s tech,

assuming the Government of Canada had the resolve to do so,

Canada could manufacture them in relatively short order,

in fact, it would be far quicker & easier for Canada to produce nukes,

as it would be for Canada to build a large conventional force

[Dougie93]

30 minutes ago, xul said:

Taking precautionary measures after American president threated to annex Canada = choose to become American's permanent enemy?

you just said that you want to buy thermonuclear weapons from North Korea to employ against America,

 

[Aristides]

32 minutes ago, Dougie93 said:

there's no need for that, since Canada possesses plenty of plutonium from the CANDU reactors

lithium detueride is easily fabricated in this day & age

thermonuclear weapons are 1950s tech,

assuming the Government of Canada had the resolve to do so,

Canada could manufacture them in relatively short order,

in fact, it would be far quicker & easier for Canada to produce nukes,

as it would be for Canada to build a large conventional force

Building nukes is the easy part, you still need a way to get them to a defended target.

[Dougie93]

Just now, Aristides said:

Building nukes is the easy part, you still need a way to get them to a defended target.

Canada could in fact deliver them by truck bomb ;  Nuclear Timothy McVeigh

[xul]

7 minutes ago, Dougie93 said:

you just said that you want to buy thermonuclear weapons from North Korea to employ against America,

 

No, I didn't.

What I said was to buy nukes to prevent an invasion. It is self-defense.  Whom they are against depends on who wants to invade Canada.