Loonie watch: Canadian dollar hits four-year low as 71 cent U.S. threshold nears

[taxme]

On 11/14/2024 at 11:50 PM, CdnFox said:

Canadian dollar hits four-year low as 71 cent U.S. threshold nears | Financial Post

 

And that my friends is the sound of everything getting more expensive

As long as we prop up and allow buffoons like the dictator in Ottawa to borrow and spend all that money borrowed from the globalist banksters will create inflation. The more debt a country goes into the more expensive it gets to live. As of now we have a government that spends or blows dollars like there is no tomorrow. Maybe we are all phkd because many of our traitorous politicians know that there will be no tomorrow. There will be a new world order WEF Marxist globalist order tomorrow on it's way and our politicians are playing their game at we the peoples expense. We have so many traitors among our midst, there are way too many to count. Sad indeed what most of our power hungry politicians will do to their own people just for power and glory. The sad thing is that these traitors mean nothing to the Marxist globalists. These traitors are being used as pawns to bring about a WEF globalist empire and will be discarded after they usefulness. 😒

[Army Guy]

On 11/15/2024 at 9:44 PM, August1991 said:

The value of Canada is not the Canadian dollar price of a US dollar.

Ya we get it, we all get along........Thats our real value ( according to you), but that does not put food on the table, cloths on our backs or shelter....So ya the value of our dollar does effect us along with a million other things...

[August1991]

On 11/19/2024 at 1:04 PM, Army Guy said:

Ya we get it, we all get along........Thats our real value ( according to you), but that does not put food on the table, cloths on our backs or shelter....So ya the value of our dollar does effect us along with a million other things...

This forum is great! (But be careful kids, the Internet is forever.)

====

AG, good question.

Does the fall in the Cdn dollar put more food on the table of most Cdns?

[CdnFox]

13 minutes ago, August1991 said:

 

AG, good question.

Does the fall in the Cdn dollar put more food on the table of most Cdns?

Other way around. As I noted even for those things that we produce here like beef and wheat as our dollar shrinks the cost in Canadian dollar of those products goes up because we still have to compete on the world market. If Americans are willing to pay $20 a pound for beef and our dollar is half theirs then we have to pay $40 or else the manufacturers and processors sell it to the Americans. Slightly simplistic but you get the idea.

Lightly weaker Canadian dollar can help our economy a little, but when it gets down this low it has a very negative impact. I mean the US dollar is worth far more than the peso and Mexico isn't rich is it  

If I'm not mistaken I have heard in the past that our ideal currency rate would be about 83 to 85 cents cdn to us. 

[ExFlyer]

11 hours ago, CdnFox said:

Other way around.

If I'm not mistaken I have heard in the past that our ideal currency rate would be about 83 to 85 cents cdn to us. 

The only benefit of a weak Canadian dollar is for exporters.

Everything else costs Canadians more as we are a gross importer as opposed too exporter.

[CdnFox]

3 hours ago, ExFlyer said:

The only benefit of a weak Canadian dollar is for exporters.

Everything else costs Canadians more as we are a gross importer as opposed too exporter.

well.... not exactly.  We're traditionally a gross exporter rather than importer, until last year.  And even last year we're about balanced. 

In 2023, the value of Canada's annual merchandise exports decreased 1.4% to $768.2 billion, while the value of annual imports rose 1.4% to $770.2 billion. As a result, Canada's merchandise trade balance with the world went from a surplus of $19.7 billion in 2022 to a slight deficit of $1.9 billion in 2023. Compared with the total trade value (imports and exports combined totalled $1.54 trillion), the trade deficit represented approximately 0.1% of total trade in 2023. Therefore, Canada's merchandise trade for 2023 was essentially in a balanced position.

The Daily — Canadian international merchandise trade: Annual review 2023

unfortunately due to the liberal policies the value of our trade has been going down. I think this is the first time since mulroney took office we've had a deficit, i'd have to look that up. 

 

The problem is that when the dollar is THIS low it doesnt' really help the manufacturers that much.  A SMALL difference does, but when it's this large it actually winds up hurting them. It's like a discount at a store,  a little might bring in more customers but after a point they've bought all they want and if you keep dropping prices you just start to lose money. 

Tourism is the only sector that actually benefits and even then it's not across the board. 

[ExFlyer]

2 hours ago, CdnFox said:

well.... ...

Sad sad little man...You have fallen so far ..... So sad that all you got left is to whimper and whine

Sad Sad Sad

Ho Humm ...... Guffaw Guffaw Guffaw 

Ha Ha Ha 

LOL LOL LOL

Yuck Yuck Yuck

 🍿🍿🍿 [munch munch] 🍿🍿🍿 

KEEP ON KEEPING ON....and getting nowhere LOL

Edited November 21, 2024 by ExFlyer

[CdnFox]

16 minutes ago, ExFlyer said:

Sad sad little man...You have fallen so far ..... So sad that all you got left is to whimper and whine

Sad Sad Sad

Ho Humm ...... Guffaw Guffaw Guffaw 

Ha Ha Ha 

LOL LOL LOL

Yuck Yuck Yuck

 🍿🍿🍿 [munch munch] 🍿🍿🍿 

KEEP ON KEEPING ON....and getting nowhere LOL

LOL wow i've got you in full meltdown in 3 threads at the same time  

Cry harder kid  

  🍿🍿🍿 [munch munch] 🍿🍿🍿 

[Army Guy]

21 hours ago, August1991 said:

This forum is great! (But be careful kids, the Internet is forever.)

====

AG, good question.

Does the fall in the Cdn dollar put more food on the table of most Cdns?

Yes it does in a lot of cases...food imported from US markets or other foreign markets becomes more expensive, things like oranges, orange juice, most vegetables/ fruits in the winter...

[Moonlight Graham]

My neighbours went to the local forest for a hike and found a homeless guy living in a tent.  A month ago they found a guy living in his car on the street.

Never seen a homeless guy in these parts before the last few years.   It's wild.  They'd usually ALL live downtown near the homeless shelters and such.  Not good.

[NAME REMOVED]

25 minutes ago, Moonlight Graham said:

My neighbours went to the local forest for a hike and found a homeless guy living in a tent.  A month ago they found a guy living in his car on the street.

Never seen a homeless guy in these parts before the last few years.   It's wild.  They'd usually ALL live downtown near the homeless shelters and such.  Not good.

You should see what people in Edmonton are doing....

 

 

[SkyHigh]

On 11/17/2024 at 6:38 PM, CdnFox said:

Not when it drops that low. The negatives tend to outweigh the positives. It creates rapid inflation for the workers Who will all demand higher wages and will be interested in giving it back when the dollar rises again. The equipment and maintenance contracts tend to cost more for the manufacturing equipment because many of the parts are technology come from the states. A lot of production facilities can't really increase their production overnight so they don't actually wind up selling a lot more

As I noted above a slightly weak Canadian dollar can have benefits for manufacturing and industry but not when it's this low.

Some tourism sectors may enjoy a benefit but that's about it and certainly not worth what it's going to do to the economy overall

Again it's about duration not depreciation

You are downplaying the economic benefits of a low dollar, not just on the basics of economics but the specificities of our economy (particularly with trump threatening tariffs). 

We are a nation that depends on exporting, our largest trading partner is the U.S , a low dollar promotes the US to buy our goods, therefore add money to our economy. I'm sure you understand the concept of how money multiples. With an ever changing dollar, we sell when the dollar is low and in turn can buy new machinery etc, when it goes back up.

You also brought up tourism and a lower dollar helps there as well. 

A couple examples one based on actual numbers the other admittedly anecdotal.

The Montreal jazz festival brings in 10s of millions directly and it's estimated at around 100 million indirectly. That one festival brings in enough to support almost every small festival in the province.

I'm currently working at a ski resort in BC and have personally spoken to numerous Americans that ski here because of a low dollar. Ergo more opportunities to multiply the money in our economy 

[CdnFox]

12 minutes ago, SkyHigh said:

Again it's about duration not depreciation

You are downplaying the economic benefits of a low dollar, not just on the basics of economics but the specificities of our economy (particularly with trump threatening tariffs). 

Trump hadn't even made the tariff threats when I wrote that. I think it's a little unfair to suggest that It factored into my thinking or comments at all

And no, I was very clear that there can be significant benefits to a low Canadian dollar relative to the American up to a point. But like almost anything in economics after a certain point you get diminishing returns and eventually a negative result.

I mean we can both agree that if our dollar was worth one penny to the American dollar it would be really really bad and in no way beneficial right?

So somewhere between parity and that one cent there is a number after which it is no longer beneficial and starts to become negative. I'm saying that the dollar that we're at right now is below that number and is becoming negative

16 minutes ago, SkyHigh said:

We are a nation that depends on exporting, our largest trading partner is the U.S , a low dollar promotes the US to buy our goods, therefore add money to our economy

We are also a nation of importers. We import a substantial portion of our food, much of our technology, much of our finished goods even if we provided the materials for it, and so on. While it is fair to say that we rely heavily on exporting, it is just as fair to say that we rely almost but not quite as heavily on importing.

And the challenges the Americans are only going to buy so much and we can only produce so much regardless of the dollar value. There comes a point where we can't grow any more wheat so no matter what the dollar value is they can't buy more. Or oil or electricity or anything.

The dollar being lower only helps if we have not yet sold everything that we can and therefore encourages the Americans to buy more than they would have. If we've already sold them everything we can then a lower dollar will not result in additional sales. And this is what I am telling you, things have gotten to the point where the dollar going any lower will not result in more Canadian sales.

But it will still cost us more to import the goods that we need, so that creates a very negative downward effect on our economy.

So again a lower Canadian dollar can benefit to a point, but beyond that point it hurts us badly and we have gone beyond that point

[SkyHigh]

On 11/7/2024 at 7:49 AM, Legato said:

 

 

22 hours ago, CdnFox said:

 

 

21 hours ago, CdnFox said:

Trump hadn't even made the tariff threats when I wrote that. I think it's a little unfair to suggest that It factored into my thinking or comments at all

And no, I was very clear that there can be significant benefits to a low Canadian dollar relative to the American up to a point. But like almost anything in economics after a certain point you get diminishing returns and eventually a negative result.

I mean we can both agree that if our dollar was worth one penny to the American dollar it would be really really bad and in no way beneficial right?

So somewhere between parity and that one cent there is a number after which it is no longer beneficial and starts to become negative. I'm saying that the dollar that we're at right now is below that number and is becoming negative

We are also a nation of importers. We import a substantial portion of our food, much of our technology, much of our finished goods even if we provided the materials for it, and so on. While it is fair to say that we rely heavily on exporting, it is just as fair to say that we rely almost but not quite as heavily on importing.

And the challenges the Americans are only going to buy so much and we can only produce so much regardless of the dollar value. There comes a point where we can't grow any more wheat so no matter what the dollar value is they can't buy more. Or oil or electricity or anything.

The dollar being lower only helps if we have not yet sold everything that we can and therefore encourages the Americans to buy more than they would have. If we've already sold them everything we can then a lower dollar will not result in additional sales. And this is what I am telling you, things have gotten to the point where the dollar going any lower will not result in more Canadian sales.

But it will still cost us more to import the goods that we need, so that creates a very negative downward effect on our economy.

So again a lower Canadian dollar can benefit to a point, but beyond that point it hurts us badly and we have gone beyond that point

I am aware that the tariffs were announced after your post and was in no way implying that you had ignored or purposely excluded them from your assessment, but the fact that they have now been announced ,strongly supports my original assertion.

Of course we agree that the dollar could fall low enough that it would be detrimental to our economy but I know we can also agree that the dollar being too high also has negative effects for our economy and the dollar is still trading at around 70$ which isn't that bad. The day it drops under 60 I will join your little crusade enthusiasticly.

  Of course we also import (though I believe we do export more than import) but our major imports are A) machinery (most often used to modernize and/or improve production) B. Things like refined crude, car parts and lumber. There are of course many other imported things but let's start with these.

So for A. a low dollar is necessary to generate enough revenue to to buy new machinery and to have enough market share to justify the need for more production 

For B.  in these industries , we and the states ( as well as Mexico for the auto industry) work in partnership and often within the same parent company allowing them to set there own prices while dealing across borders. Do you know how many times even a single automotive component can be sent between us the states and Mexico? We do something here, goes to Mexico, then back here, then to the states, etc, etc etc.. do you honestly think that everytime each piece crosses the border we pay the exchange?  For oil and lumber it pretty much the same, we send crude and trees, they send back gas and 2×4s

So again, the key economic matric as it pertains to the dollar is duration not depreciation 

 

Edited December 16, 2024 by SkyHigh

[CdnFox]

1 hour ago, SkyHigh said:

 

 

I am aware that the tariffs were announced after your post and was in no way implying that you had ignored or purposely excluded them from your assessment, but the fact that they have now been announced ,strongly supports my original assertion.

Of course we agree that the dollar could fall low enough that it would be detrimental to our economy but I know we can also agree that the dollar being too high also has negative effects for our economy and the dollar is still trading at around 70$ which isn't that bad.

 

70 cents is TERRIBLE. 

It is very bad.  Once the dollar goes below 83 cents us we get a diminishing return quickly moving to a negative in the upper 70's.   70 is very bad. 

1 hour ago, SkyHigh said:

Of course we also import (though I believe we do export more than import) but our major imports are A) machinery (most often used to modernize and/or improve production) B. Things like refined crude, car parts and lumber. There are of course many other imported things but let's start with these.

We don't import lumber.  We export lumber. 

What we import is things made with lumber.  So we sell the supplies cheap and buy the finished product back expensive when the dollar is low. 

1 hour ago, SkyHigh said:

So for A. a low dollar is necessary to generate enough revenue to to buy new machinery and to have enough market share to justify the need for more production 

You literally got that backwards. With a low dollar we cannot generate enough revenue to afford new machinery. 

1 hour ago, SkyHigh said:

For B.  in these industries , we and the states ( as well as Mexico for the auto industry) work in partnership and often within the same parent company allowing them to set there own prices

Nope. That's auto only.  Every other industry of which there are hundreds it's a straight increase for us. 

I cannot stress this enough, you are so wrong and backwards in this that it's actually scaring me a little. 

We don't sell more just because the dollar is low.  Very quickly we hit market saturation and the dollar being lower doesn't mean more sales, it just means it's more expensive for us to buy what we need. 

And WORSE, it drives up the prices locally.  We sell a lot of wood. If the us is willing to pay 10 dollars us per board of wood, and our dollar is 90 cents then we pay 1.10 for the wood (more or less, you get the idea).   If the dollar falls to 50 cents, then the wood manufactuers can STILL GET 100 from the americans, so we have to pay 2 dollars cdn for that same wood. 

So it shoots up our inflation, reduces our ability to buy products outside of canada and it does NOTHIGN to increase sales. Forestry companies are already cutting as much wood as they can for example. 

The dollar at 70 cents is TERRIBLE for us.  It starts getting 'bad' at around 78  75 cents. IT only gets good for us at around 83-86 cents. And above that its' often still good, we did great in harper's time when our dollar was above the us's.. 

 

[CdnFox]

Canadian dollar dips below 70 cents US for first time since March 2020

Canadian dollar dips below 70 cents US for first time since March 2020 | CBC News

 

Well this isn't good.  This will put inflationary pressures on us again.