Dougie93 Posted March 1, 2022 Report Share Posted March 1, 2022 that complete idiot Lukahsenko in Minsk has given a briefing to his General Staff, which was filmed on the film is the map of the operation, showing the arrows as to where they are going most of it was obvious, Kiev, Kharkiv, Kherson but there was one set of arrows which we didn't know that was from the forces breaking out of Crimea pointing towards a link up with Transnistria in Moldova talk about OSINT Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dougie93 Posted March 1, 2022 Report Share Posted March 1, 2022 Ukrainian reporter confronts Boris Johnson demands NATO impose a No Fly Zone accuses the United Kingdom of cowardice in effect it might cause World War Three ? she says it has already started Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dougie93 Posted March 2, 2022 Report Share Posted March 2, 2022 (edited) ghosts of Belgian Neutrality this is how the First World War broke out the Liberal government in the United Kingdom did not want to intercede yet slowly but surely they were dragged into the war as the public clambered for war in light of their brutal subjugation of the Belgians Churchill was in the coalition government he said, if they didn't intervene in the war, he would cross the floor to the Tories this is how the Liberal government of the day was incited to join the war, in the name of Belgian Neutrality thus is how over 600,000 Canadian soldiers ended up in Flanders 56,638 of them killed, 141,418 wounded, taken prisoner, or missing by the end of the war at Mons, on 11 November 1918 Edited March 2, 2022 by Dougie93 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dougie93 Posted March 2, 2022 Report Share Posted March 2, 2022 so I always wondered how this would go, since Ukraine is between two Russian Military Districts Western Military District headquartered at Petrograd Southern Military District headquartered at Rostov-on-Don who would lead the operation ? the answer is neither, there are two completely separate operations Southern Military District is running the operation in the south, Donbass, Crimea, Black Sea coast Western Military District is running the operation in the north, Kiev to Kharikiv, the hot zone the Russians are apparently doing well in the south, that operation is making progress, is oscar mike then in the north the Russians are conceding that the underestimated the Ukrainians but now they are bringing the main force, and they fell like they have things back on track Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dougie93 Posted March 2, 2022 Report Share Posted March 2, 2022 Belarus has announced that they are jettisoning their Non Nuclear State protections Belarus is now officially a Nuclear Power hosting Russian nuclear weapons on their territory here come the theater thermonuclear forces into play now first stages of Nuclear Deescalation, moving the tactical nuclear weapons into position against NATO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dougie93 Posted March 2, 2022 Report Share Posted March 2, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dougie93 Posted March 2, 2022 Report Share Posted March 2, 2022 taking fire from a Russian tank in urban terrain Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dougie93 Posted March 2, 2022 Report Share Posted March 2, 2022 Rick Hillier was gung-ho to fight the Afghanistan War he's gung-ho to fight World War Three next Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dougie93 Posted March 2, 2022 Report Share Posted March 2, 2022 (edited) the Russians have a serious problem here now they deployed a 200,000 man ground force expecting a walkover now they are facing a population fully mobilized for total war so now the Russians are surrounded and massively outnumbered in a riled up hornet's nest for whatever reason, the Russian air force is not flying, so there's only minimal air support this is what happens when your try to take a Boutique Army to war there are some shiny models in the showroom but behind that, there is nothing in the warehouse the Russians lack logistics, command & control, deconfliction, precision etc it's a Potenmkin Village, a facade all they really have as leverage in the end, is their thermonuclear weapons all war is logistics plus human will the Russians don't got it even if they take Ukraine, they're not going to be able to hold it this is all leading to Nuclear Deescalation in the end the nukes are the only thing they got at the end of the day explosive lenses are reliable to implode plutonium pits into second stage lithium deuteride fusion that's the only thing they can rely on, because it's 1950's tech Edited March 2, 2022 by Dougie93 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dougie93 Posted March 2, 2022 Report Share Posted March 2, 2022 (edited) The Mysterious Case of the Missing Russian Air Force Justin Bronk 28 February 20227 Minute Read Share On the fifth day of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, one of many unanswered questions is why Russia has launched a military campaign at huge cost with maximalist objectives, and then declined to use the vast majority of its fixed wing combat aircraft. The Russian invasion of Ukraine began as expected in the early hours of 24 February: a large salvo of cruise and ballistic missiles destroyed the main ground-based early warning radars throughout Ukraine. The result was to effectively blind the Ukrainian Air Force (UkrAF), and in some cases also hinder aircraft movements by cratering runways and taxiways at its major airbases. Strikes also hit several Ukrainian long-range S-300P surface-to-air missile (SAM) batteries, which had limited mobility due to a long-term lack of spares. These initial stand-off strikes followed the pattern seen in many US-led interventions since the end of the Cold War. The logical and widely anticipated next step, as seen in almost every military conflict since 1938, would have been for the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) to mount large-scale strike operations to destroy the UkrAF. With its early warning chain blinded and some runways cratered, the UkrAF was left vulnerable to raids by strike aircraft like the Su-34 with guided munitions, or even multirole Su-30 fighters with predominantly unguided munitions. If present in significant numbers, escorting Su-35 and Su-30 fighters would have overwhelmed the Ukrainian fighters, even if they did manage to take off for sorties conducted at very low altitudes with limited situational awareness. This did not happen. https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/mysterious-case-missing-russian-air-force Edited March 2, 2022 by Dougie93 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceni warrior Posted March 2, 2022 Report Share Posted March 2, 2022 22 minutes ago, Dougie93 said: The Mysterious Case of the Missing Russian Air Force Justin Bronk 28 February 20227 Minute Read https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/mysterious-case-missing-russian-air-force That's a pretty damning description of the state of Russian command structures and training. Air Supremacy is usually the first goal for invading forces and it doesn't appear to have been achieved yet after a week's fighting. Would you say that is mostly a result of Russian restraint, hoping for a quick surrender without too much loss of life, or Russia's inability due to a lack of logistics and inadequate training? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dougie93 Posted March 2, 2022 Report Share Posted March 2, 2022 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Iceni warrior said: That's a pretty damning description of the state of Russian command structures and training. Air Supremacy is usually the first goal for invading forces and it doesn't appear to have been achieved yet after a week's fighting. Would you say that is mostly a result of Russian restraint, hoping for a quick surrender without too much loss of life, or Russia's inability due to a lack of logistics and inadequate training? it's almost as if it is political it's like the Russian air force is slow walking this, because they oppose Putin this would explain why the Russian navy is not doing much neither nor is there much Spetsnaz being employed in this fight it's almost as if the elite forces of Russia are refusing to go down with Putin the only guys he can intimidate into fighting at all, are the lowly conscripts of the conventional ground troops Edited March 2, 2022 by Dougie93 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dougie93 Posted March 2, 2022 Report Share Posted March 2, 2022 (edited) basically, Putin only has two real levers here he has massed artillery to raze cities to the ground from standoff range and he has thermonuclear weapons, to take that to the next level Edited March 2, 2022 by Dougie93 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dougie93 Posted March 2, 2022 Report Share Posted March 2, 2022 (edited) and if Ukraine starts to receive the drones in quantity ? the Turkish & Israeli drones like Azerbaijan has ? the tide could turn fast this could become a drone war and then the Russians are going to get mauled think about how a Loitering Munition works you need no training to operate one, it's like running your iPhone you are some Ukrainian civilian, I give you a box of these ? you can launch these from your apartment, control them with your laptop it flies out over the battlefield, it's too small for the Russians to detect you just fly it around looking for something to kill with the camera on the drone you see something worth killing, you drop the drone on it, the warhead is like a Javelin missile wash rinse repeat the Russians are using 1980's tech forty years old if at some point 21st century drone tech is brought to bear agains them the Russians will get cut to pieces Edited March 2, 2022 by Dougie93 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceni warrior Posted March 2, 2022 Report Share Posted March 2, 2022 45 minutes ago, Dougie93 said: it's almost as if it is political it's like the Russian air force is slow walking this, because they oppose Putin this would explain why the Russian navy is not doing much neither nor is there much Spetsnaz being employed in this fight it's almost as if the elite forces of Russia are refusing to go down with Putin the only guys he can intimidate into fighting at all, are the lowly conscripts of the conventional ground troops So what are the chances of Putin being obeyed if he ordered the use of theatre nuclear weapons? I'm guessing that they are not in the hands of conscripts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dougie93 Posted March 2, 2022 Report Share Posted March 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, Iceni warrior said: So what are the chances of Putin being obeyed if he ordered the use of theatre nuclear weapons? I'm guessing that they are not in the hands of conscripts. exactly the Strategic Rocket Troops are hand picked for their reliability but it's more than that with nuclear weapons, it's all muscle memory a missileer is conditioned to launch the weapon before he considers the ramifications Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dougie93 Posted March 2, 2022 Report Share Posted March 2, 2022 (edited) it's like on 26 September 1983 it's not that Stan Petrov refused to do his duty if he had thought it was a real American attack, he would have launched on warning all Petrov said is that he didn't trust the Oko satellite the Oko satellite was janky, he knew so all he said was; this is a false alarm, he did not believe that was a real Minuteman III inbound Edited March 2, 2022 by Dougie93 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dougie93 Posted March 2, 2022 Report Share Posted March 2, 2022 so now it becomes a question of which Russian nuclear forces are most reliable ? so again, I would say that is the ground troop conscripts Putin is using tactical ballistic & cruise missiles instead of the unreliable air force so I would surmise that is what he would resort to with nuclear weapons as well which most likely means Iskander road mobile tactical ballistic missile with 50kt warhead and P-800 Oniks road mobile supersonic cruise missile with 100kt warhead Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dougie93 Posted March 2, 2022 Report Share Posted March 2, 2022 just for reference, this is a 100 kiloton thermonuclear detonation here Operation Dominic Yukon, 8 May 1962 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dougie93 Posted March 2, 2022 Report Share Posted March 2, 2022 50 kilotons, airburst Operation Dominic Muskegon, three days later, on 11 May 1962 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dougie93 Posted March 2, 2022 Report Share Posted March 2, 2022 Operation Crossroads Baker 25 July 1946 this is only 22 kilotons a tactical yield warhead the size of the Nagasaki "Fat Man" bomb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dougie93 Posted March 2, 2022 Report Share Posted March 2, 2022 in terms of a thermonuclear strike against Canada as part of NORAD ? using Toronto as a reference target ? everything south of Bloor Street is gone Bloor Street to Steeles Ave is completely wrecked north of Steeles Ave, you are probably okay Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dougie93 Posted March 2, 2022 Report Share Posted March 2, 2022 it's actually more survivable than you think similar to being hit by a tornado stay in your home flying glass is the biggest threat tape up your windows get in the bathtub in terms of radiation ? just taping up thick plastic sheets over the window & doors is actually very effective and drink vodka, lots of vodka, it's a prophylactic against radiation poisoning Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dougie93 Posted March 2, 2022 Report Share Posted March 2, 2022 you wont have to stay in your home forever but right after the strike strontium-90 is going to fall in the form of black rain so you need to stay indoors until that abates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dougie93 Posted March 2, 2022 Report Share Posted March 2, 2022 (edited) lots of people survived Hiroshima & Nagasaki lived to a ripe old age after most people died of infection from burns don't get burned be indoors, follow some simple steps, you can survive this too thinking of the long terms effect of the fallout ? if you dodge the black rain after that, it's no worse than being a pack a day smoker Edited March 2, 2022 by Dougie93 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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