The Coronavirus

[Argus]

24 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said:

She’s more competent than most of our political leaders, including Trump and Trudeau.  

That's debatable. She's the one, after all, who invited the whole middle east to come to Europe, thus setting about the slow, gradual destruction of the EU and inflaming the far right.

[Shady]

4 minutes ago, Argus said:

When we're all on the same drugs as those people were.

Have you ever seen a bad flu season with bodies piled up outside mortuaries because there's nowhere inside to store them? Where hospitals have to park multiple refrigerator trucks outside to store the bodies? And this is WITH the lockdown. Do you people really lack the imagination to understand what that situation would have been like WITHOUT the lockdown?

That says more about our capacity for fatalities, which is very small, because normally, very few people die at the same time.  So even a small uptick in deaths can cause a backlog.  Regardless, the lockdown was to prevent hospitals from being overrun.  Well, hospitals aren't overrun.  There's a huge capacity that isn't being used and needed.  So it's time that a phased reopening was begun, with mitigation and distancing practices.

[Argus]

2 minutes ago, Shady said:

That says more about our capacity for fatalities, which is very small, because normally, very few people die at the same time.  So even a small uptick in deaths can cause a backlog.  Regardless, the lockdown was to prevent hospitals from being overrun.  Well, hospitals aren't overrun.  There's a huge capacity that isn't being used and needed.  So it's time that a phased reopening was begun, with mitigation and distancing practices.

Hospitals have barely coped in many cities, and are running out of PPE gear, out of drugs to put people out so they can intubate them, and out of space to store the dead. Their staff are also exhausted. And you want to double or triple the number of cases?

[bush_cheney2004]

29 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said:

She’s more competent than most of our political leaders, including Trump and Trudeau.  

 

Depends on the issue....Germany has a massive problem with refugee and immigration policies under Merkel....not so smart after all.

[Iceni warrior]

26 minutes ago, Shady said:

She still takes advice from medical experts.  Just like every other leader.

The difference is that she understands and reacts accordingly to those experts.

There is no doubt that Germany has had far better results in handling the virus (despite any problems the country has had with immigration) and will be in a position to end their shutdown long before many others.

[Shady]

1 minute ago, Iceni warrior said:

The difference is that she understands and reacts accordingly to those experts.

There is no doubt that Germany has had far better results in handling the virus (despite any problems the country has had with immigration) and will be in a position to end their shutdown long before many others.

Their medical experts haven't suggested anything different than anyone else's.  One of the reasons that they'll be opening sooner is that they're further into the process of the curve.  Their first case was much sooner than in North America.

[Iceni warrior]

11 hours ago, pinky tuscadero said:

Annual deaths from seasonal flu - 650 000 (5 000 000 severe illnesses)

Corona deaths - 170 455 (2 481 866 cases worldwide with most showing no or mild symptoms)

 

There are the numbers, but I am the mad one.

Can you at least show some semblance of intellectual honesty and admit you are not sure what is going on?

Or simply look at those numbers above and change your position to match the data and fight for humanity.

 

That should shock anyone into questioning why we are down a trail whose door is quickly closing behind us.

 

 

How many deaths worldwide do you think there would have been without the ''overreaction'' to the Coronavirus?

All you are really doing here is showing that the shutdowns have been very successful.

[Shady]

9 minutes ago, Argus said:

Hospitals have barely coped in many cities, and are running out of PPE gear, out of drugs to put people out so they can intubate them, and out of space to store the dead. Their staff are also exhausted. And you want to double or triple the number of cases?

That's just not true.  Most hospitals in Canada, and in the United States are half empty.  Only a few places were hit with the initial wave of cases that overwhelmed the system for a while.  Nobody is saying reopen just like before.  Mitigation and distancing practices will still be necessary, as well as limiting large gatherings.

[Iceni warrior]

1 minute ago, Shady said:

Their medical experts haven't suggested anything different than anyone else's.  One of the reasons that they'll be opening sooner is that they're further into the process of the curve.  Their first case was much sooner than in North America.

The problems are not with the advice but the reactions to that advice.

The UK and US were slow to impliment the advice and poorly prepared to mitigate the spread and have suffered far more as a result.

[Shady]

1 minute ago, Iceni warrior said:

The problems are not with the advice but the reactions to that advice.

The UK and US were slow to impliment the advice and poorly prepared to mitigate the spread and have suffered far more as a result.

Canada wasn't any faster.  In fact, in most cases we responded after the US and UK.

[Argus]

1 minute ago, Shady said:

That's just not true.  Most hospitals in Canada, and in the United States are half empty.  Only a few places were hit with the initial wave of cases that overwhelmed the system for a while. 

And you don't think the ban on travel and the shutdowns which gave people no reason to move around might have had something to do with that?

And btw, there are no half empty hospitals in this country. Most are at or over capacity at the best of times.

[Iceni warrior]

7 minutes ago, Shady said:

Their medical experts haven't suggested anything different than anyone else's.  One of the reasons that they'll be opening sooner is that they're further into the process of the curve.  Their first case was much sooner than in North America.

Sure, that may be true but do you want to compare deaths per million even though they are further along the curve?

Edited April 21, 2020 by Iceni warrior

[Argus]

Got a feeling we'll be seeing a lot more of these people.

https://nypost.com/2020/04/21/man-dies-from-coronavirus-after-calling-it-a-political-ploy/

[Shady]

4 minutes ago, Argus said:

Got a feeling we'll be seeing a lot more of these people.

https://nypost.com/2020/04/21/man-dies-from-coronavirus-after-calling-it-a-political-ploy/

It's a good form of social darwinism.

[Boges]

1 hour ago, Shady said:

It's a good form of social darwinism.

The people going to these protests are another excellent example of this. 

[bush_cheney2004]

5 minutes ago, Boges said:

The people going to these protests are another excellent example of this. 

 

Doesn't require any protests.....like these gatherings at Kitsilano Beach in Vancouver:

 

[pinky tuscadero]

12 hours ago, eyeball said:

Stanford? Where does it say Stanford?

And what's this mean?

 

Hmmmm.

Caution: Preprints are preliminary reports of work that have not been certified by peer review. They should not be relied on to guide clinical practice or health-related behavior and should not be reported in news media as established information.

 

It says right there under Info/History all the authors are from 'stanford.edu', come on, do I have to hand-hold you and your ilk for everything.

 

Now I have to explain what 'peer review' is and how it is not the be all and end all to science, because apparently you have never looked into it yourself. (link to below quotes)

Quote

Richard Smith, a former editor of the British Medical Journal, describes peer review as a roulette wheel, a lottery, and a black box. He points out that an extensive body of research finds scant evidence that this vetting process accomplishes much at all. On the other hand, a mountain of scholarship has identified profound deficiencies.

Anyone can start a scholarly journal and define peer review however they wish. No minimum standards apply and no enforcement mechanisms ensure that a journal's publicly described policies are actually followed. Some editors admit to writing up fake reviews under the cover of anonymity rather than going to the trouble of recruiting bona fide referees. In 2014, a news story reported that 120 papers containing computer-generated gibberish had nevertheless survived the peer review process of reputable publishers.

And the final death knell for peer review,

and the overwhelming great importance of having two studies that reached the same conclusion (observable, verifiable, repeatable, falsifiable):

Quote

The US National Science Foundation recently reminded us that a scientific finding "cannot be regarded as an empirical fact" unless it has been independently verified.

Peer reviewed does not perform that function.

 

Edited April 21, 2020 by pinky tuscadero

[pinky tuscadero]

Look at the below numbers (again) and all the sourced material here (including experts in epidemiology/virology, etc.), hundreds of hours of research to comb through.

A rational/cognitive person cannot look at this evidence and conclude the lockdown of society was warranted.

Annual deaths from seasonal flu - 650 000 (5 000 000 severe illnesses)

Corona deaths - 170 455 (2 481 866 cases worldwide with most showing no or mild symptoms)

 

There are none so blind, as those who refuse to see.

 

 

 

[Boges]

15 minutes ago, pinky tuscadero said:

Look at the below numbers (again) and all the sourced material here (including experts in epidemiology/virology, etc.), hundreds of hours of research to comb through.

A rational/cognitive person cannot look at this evidence and conclude the lockdown of society was warranted.

Annual deaths from seasonal flu - 650 000 (5 000 000 severe illnesses)

Corona deaths - 170 455 (2 481 866 cases worldwide with most showing no or mild symptoms)

There are none so blind, as those who refuse to see.

You're comparing annual figures to maybe 2 months of data since the disease started widely spreading in the West. That's not even remotely and apples to apples comparison. 

This source notes the Canadian death rate from Flu at 3,500.

https://www.myhealthunit.ca/en/health-professionals-partners/resources/Updated-CDC/fact-sheet-flu-grippe-faits-feuillet-2-eng.pdf

Canada is approaching 1,500 COVID deaths in just the two months, or so, since people started getting widely effected. BTW 2 months is very generous, it's more like 5-6 weeks. 

Also your link notes Sweden as evidence Social Distancing isn't required. Sweden's per capita death rate is higher than the US. 

The link also notes a collapse of healthcare systems as a contributing factor to deaths. Which is exactly why Social Distancing was enforced. So that Healthcare systems didn't collapse. 

Edited April 21, 2020 by Boges

[Shady]

1 hour ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

 

Doesn't require any protests.....like these gatherings at Kitsilano Beach in Vancouver:

 

Probably a bunch of Trudeau supporters.

[eyeball]

34 minutes ago, pinky tuscadero said:

It says right there under Info/History all the authors are from 'stanford.edu', come on, do I have to hand-hold you and your ilk for everything.

No you need to cite a peer reviewed paper bearing Stanford University's  official letterhead.

Now I have to explain what 'peer review' is and how it is not the be all and end all to science....

No you don't and yes it is. You only need to look to your own source for the reasons why.  

Anyone can start a scholarly journal and define peer review however they wish.

You've taken this one step further and taken a scholarly journal's un-reviewed interpretation of Stanford's un-reviewed study and used them to make a complete idiot out of yourself.

Mind you I'm just adding my observation to those of my peers and it remains to others to review these as they see fit.

[Zeitgeist]

4 hours ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

 

Depends on the issue....Germany has a massive problem with refugee and immigration policies under Merkel....not so smart after all.

As always, Deutschland runs mainland Europe.  By accepting a million refugees Germany catapulted herself to the progressive lead on the European front.  I’m part Brit, but Britain isn’t leading on much right now.  Nevertheless France holds the military power of mainland Europe in accordance with post-WW2 order as established in the Security Council, which is a good balance.  Germany is the bank of Europe.  France is the military arm.  Italy is the religious centre.  Britain is the Anglo-American stronghold in Europe, but so is France.  Britain tends to do its own thing and hasn’t forgotten the Empire.  I think politically Germany is the wise broker in Europe right now, like Canada in North America.  

[OftenWrong]

I'm still outside every day to do my work. Doesn't matter because I'm an old guy, so I'm gonna die soon anyway. But so far it doesn't look that bad out here to me. On my way home I went to Loblaw's, was fulla people, but very few had face coverings. Elderly mostly, which is very sensible. Lot's of beautiful looking women were walking around everywhere, showing off just like usual. I thought why is it normal here, people are working and buying, but I don't see nor hear of anyone getting sick. Maybe they are sick and don't even know it.

Why isn't this being discussed- the incidence of viral infection is estimated to be 85 times higher than thought, according to these unbiased researchers. They are real scientists. This info is from 4-20 2020.

Official statement from County of Los Angeles Public Health.
USC-LA County Study: Early Results of Antibody Testing Suggest Number of COVID-19 Infections Far Exceeds Number of Confirmed Cases in Los Angeles County
... that suggests infections from the new coronavirus are far more widespread - and the fatality rate much lower - in L.A. County than previously thought.

From what I've heard that puts the death rate somewhere below most common respiratory viruses. Not so deadly, by almost two orders of magnitude from what they thought it was before. That's 100, or a shift of two decimal places for those of you won't don't habla. That means many people might have already been exposed and are carrying antibodies, and they don't even know. Could even be you, or someone you know.

Well if that's true it sounds pretty reasonable to let people go outside again, back off on the total quarantine and start moving towards normalcy. Yes keep up the extreme cleanliness and social distancing and wearing of PPE to be safe and blah blah blah.

Edited April 21, 2020 by OftenWrong

[Zeitgeist]

5 hours ago, Shady said:

Canada wasn't any faster.  In fact, in most cases we responded after the US and UK.

Not true.  Our public health policy was clear, persistent, and country-wide.  Only some states had implemented what we were doing across most of the country.  

[Boges]

For all the bunk about this being no worse than the flu. 

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

Quote

CDC estimates that influenza was associated with more than 35.5 million illnesses, more than 16.5 million medical visits, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths during the 2018–2019 influenza season. This burden was similar to estimated burden during the 2012–2013 influenza season1.

Today the US passed 45,000 COVID-19 related deaths. Maybe 6 weeks after it was taken seriously and numbers started to pile up.