NAFTA negotiations.

[Rue]

1 hour ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

 

The American business people already own 50% of Canada's manufacturing base, and a good portion of bitumen/oil production and distribution (increasing after NAFTA).

 

If Canada doesn't like America's "violations" of NAFTA, it has been free to leave it for over 25 years, but never has, and we know why.    Trump isn't the first president to hammer Canada on trade, and he won't be the last.

 

Then Trump is actually doing Canada a huge favour....forcing Canada to kick itself in the ass and develop more trade diversification.   The U.S. is far more diversified on trade than is Canada (or Mexico).  

 

Trump is just another American president....foreigners investing so much disdain for him only exemplifies just how dependent they are on what America does, real or imagined.

Trump (and the next president after him) matter far more than Trudeau...sorry  (not sorry).

 

Again can't argue with any of the above BC. 

I have said it from day one, Canada's decision to be over-dependent on the US will of course makes us vulnerable to American protectionist policies and that everyone knows on this board left or right in Canada

I also concede America engages in protectionism no different than we do in Canada.

I concede our nation has been   lazy in the sense of not investigating in alternative markets  and looking outside US and Chinese markets so you are dead on, if we don't like it, we have to change it. That is not the fault of the US. Changing the subject a bit but including NAFTA,  Canada has to reach out for new markets other than China and the US. No point whining about that.

Next Canada US relations and for that matter US relations with any nation is far larger in complexity, meaning and duration than one   President who is in term for at most 8 years which is not that much if we put it in perspective. However I could argue some Presidents made lasting contributions for future generations  across the world such as both Roosevelts, Truman, Eisenhower.

Trudeaus and Trumps come and go yes. You are dead on. They in the big picture are distractions really.

You also know my biases. I have always been pro American foreign policy most of the time until Obama came in. I actually think the UN Ambassador for the US Nicki Haley is brilliant and fresh air in a corrupt  UN.  I personally have problems with many international organizations corrupted by foreign governments with questionable agendas. I just think Trump undermined what she was doing and turned himself into a fool before the UN making countries like China and Iran look good. The problem with Trump is because he has become so out of control and lunatic fringe any relevant issues to do with Chinese predatory pricing, Iran and its funding of g terrorism and engaging in terror against its own citizens and embracing the likes of Putin and Kim, has compromised US foreign policy.

Also for purely selfish Canadian reasons I think without the US in the World Trade Organization it is just not as effective.

My issues are specific to Trump and  specific but not necessarily all isolationist policies he wants the US to  embrace.There is a limit to how much he thinks he can detach the US from world markets before that becomes deluded paranoid lunacy but that is for Americans to decide.

I just think Obama removed the US from world stage, and now so has Trump and this gives China and Russia more power.

I  personally believe he is sabotaging the US as per the barks of Putin who dangles photos of him being pissed on by Melania on his head. Lord knows what Putin has on him.

Edited September 29, 2018 by Rue

[bush_cheney2004]

41 minutes ago, Rue said:

...I think Trump undermined what she was doing and turned himself into a fool before the UN making countries like China and Iran look good. The problem with Trump is because he has become so out of control and lunatic fringe any relevant issues to do with Chinese predatory pricing, Iran and its funding of g terrorism and engaging in terror against its own citizens and embracing the likes of Putin and Kim, has compromised US foreign policy

 

But this is exactly why I cheer Trump running amok over the "traditional" institutions and protocols that led to the stalemates in American foreign and domestic policies.

Trump can't do anything about Canada's decisions to stay in the past and hide in America's shadow.

If Putin or Kim need to be taken down....go for it Canada !

[Zeitgeist]

22 hours ago, Rue said:

Can't argue with any of the above BC. Most of what you say I agree with, I have said it from day one, Canada's decision to be over-dependent on the US will of course make us vulnerable to American protectionist policies. America engages in protectionism no different than we do in Canada. We were lazy in the sense of not investigating in our own businesses and looking outside US markets.

Changing the subject a bit but including NAFTA,  Canada has to reach out for new markets other than China and the US. No point whining about that.

Next Canada US relations and for that matter US relations with any nation is far larger in complexity, meaning and duration that a President who is in term for at most 8 years which is not that much if we put it in perspective

Trudeaus and Trumps come and go.

You also know my biases. I have always been pro American foreign policy most of the time until Obama came in. I actually think the UN Ambassador for the US Nicki Haley is brilliant and fresh air in a corrupt  UN.  I personally have problems with many international organizations corrupted by foreign governments with questionable agendas.

I think Trump undermined what she was doing and turned himself into a fool before the UN making countries like China and Iran look good. The problem with Trump is because he has become so out of control and lunatic fringe any relevant issues to do with Chinese predatory pricing, Iran and its funding of g terrorism and engaging in terror against its own citizens and embracing the likes of Putin and Kim, has compromised US foreign policy

Your last paragraph sums up the Trump failure.  The US is bargaining in trade and other foreign policy from a position of weakness because his image is antithetical to foreignness of any kind.  America First may work on a domestic audience, but not a foreign one.  No once is buying what he's selling except his own supporters, almost all of whom are in America.  He lost Canada and most countries, certainly Mexico, Europe, S. American countries, Jina...By shunning alliances except with a power that is a security and territorial threat, Russia, Trump has made his chief foreign policy, America Alone.  

[bush_cheney2004]

20 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said:

Your last paragraph sums up the Trump failure.  The US is bargaining in trade and other foreign policy from a position of weakness because his image is antithetical to foreignness of any kind. 

 

If Trump's "weakness" means that Canada is ready to capitulate on dairy protectionism as reported today to get the deal done, then I hope the U.S. continues to bargain from a position of weakness.   If Canada and Mexico will no longer be able to cheat on NAFTA with transshipments, then please bring on more weakness.   If Canada will face more tariffs when quotas are exceeded, weakness is a good thing.

 

[Zeitgeist]

1 hour ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

 

If Trump's "weakness" means that Canada is ready to capitulate on dairy protectionism as reported today to get the deal done, then I hope the U.S. continues to bargain from a position of weakness.   If Canada and Mexico will no longer be able to cheat on NAFTA with transshipments, then please bring on more weakness.   If Canada will face more tariffs when quotas are exceeded, weakness is a good thing.

 

Case in point: Because Trump has taken a balanced trade arrangement and tried to gain far greater advantage, and has publicly said he is doing this because the US can strong-arm Canada into it, there's little trust in these trade negotiations, if any.  That's the position of weakness. 

[bush_cheney2004]

2 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said:

Case in point: Because Trump has taken a balanced trade arrangement and tried to gain far greater advantage, and has publicly said he is doing this because the US can strong-arm Canada into it, there's little trust in these trade negotiations, if any.  That's the position of weakness. 

 

....and yet, Canada has quietly cleaned up its act on transshipments, followed Trump on automotive parts content/labour wages, will likely relent on dairy protectionism, will raise border de minimis dollar level, and accept limits/quotas on auto exports into the USA.

Trudeau is so strong.....please bring on more Trump weakness !

[Rue]

29 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

 

....and yet, Canada has quietly cleaned up its act on transshipments, followed Trump on automotive parts content/labour wages, will likely relent on dairy protectionism, will raise border de minimis dollar level, and accept limits/quotas on auto exports into the USA.

Trudeau is so strong.....please bring on more Trump weakness !

..and this is due to Trump...come on BC for someone who suggests Canada over-emphasizes his significance you surec as hell do give him credit for issues he has no clue about. He has nothing to do with the details being worked out and never did. He is a loud distraction that if anything has undermined the US negotiators. The things you are suggesting are as a result of him being a rude belligerent ignoramus are hilarious. 

 

Edited September 30, 2018 by Rue

[bush_cheney2004]

2 minutes ago, Rue said:

..and this is due to Trump...come on BC for someone who suggests Canada over-emphasizes his significance you surec as hell do give him credit for issues he has no clue about. He has nothing to do with the details being worked out and never did. He is a loud distraction that if anything has undermined the US negotiators. The things you are suggesting are as a result of him being a rude belligerent ignoramus are hilarious. 

 

 

Nonsense...no Trump....no NAFTA 2.0....it is as simple as that.

Mexico figured it out...Canada was much slower.

[Zeitgeist]

3 hours ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

 

Nonsense...no Trump....no NAFTA 2.0....it is as simple as that.

Mexico figured it out...Canada was much slower.

The higher minimum wage idea for Mexico was Canadian.  It's a way of ensuring that jobs don't flee to a low-cost jurisdiction without using tariffs.  In fact, while the higher wages might mean fewer jobs, the remuneration on the jobs is better, raising the standard of living and creating markets for higher cost goods.  It's very anti-"Right to Work".  I'm not sure where the cap/quota on the number of imported vehicles came from.  It's a very communist idea, like huge farm subsidies and funding of non-essential military as an employment program, so my guess is that idea came from America.

[bush_cheney2004]

Looks like Trump wins after all...Canada has made a deal to beat the 9/30 "deadline".    Canada gets to keep the right to bad CBC programming (cultural content), and probably American Super Bowl® ads.    Welcome to the new...USMCA !

 

Quote

Canada preserved the Chapter 19 dispute settlement provision, said one Canadian government source, satisfying Mr. Trudeau’s long-standing red line in the negotiations. The deal will also keep in place protections for Canadian cultural industries.

 

Mr. Trump, for his part, gained the right for American farmers to sell more products into Canada’s tightly-controlled supply managed dairy system, his major trade complaint with Canada over the last year and a half.

Three sources said a side agreement, meanwhile, would see American tariffs lifted on Canadian steel and aluminium, and a guarantee the Trump administration will not impose tariffs on most auto imports from Canada. In exchange, however, Canada would accept a quota system that would place stricter limits on the export of Canadian-made vehicles into the U.S. market, said two sources.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-canada-us-reach-outline-of-nafta-deal-pending-approval-of-trump/

 

Edited October 1, 2018 by bush_cheney2004

[Boges]

11 hours ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

Looks like Trump wins after all...Canada has made a deal to beat the 9/30 "deadline".    Canada gets to keep the right to bad CBC programming (cultural content), and probably American Super Bowl® ads.    Welcome to the new...USMCA !

Sure. If gaining access to 4% of the Canadian Dairy Market is a W. Have at it. 

No Auto Tariffs. Article 19 stays. And yes US media corporations can't pillage CanCan. 

Edited October 1, 2018 by Boges

[Wilber]

Yes, 4% of 1% of the world’s dairy market. Big win guaranteed to salvage  the screwed up US dairy industry.

[eyeball]

All it took was a handful of Canadian consumers to make America great again? Why didn't Trump just say so in the beginning?

[bush_cheney2004]

Trump...winning !

Quote

National Bank admits that the trade deal represents “the short end of the stick” for Canada, but there was no other way it was going to go,

“While Canada seems to have gotten the short end of the stick, the outcome should not be surprising. With 75% of Canada’s exports going to the U.S. and less than 20% of U.S. exports coming to Canada, it was clear from the outset who stood to lose the most from trade barriers. But a deal is better than none … Firms may be reluctant to invest or expand operations considering market access to the U.S. could potentially be cut off in the future. But six years is a long time and it’s always possible Canada gets a better deal from a friendlier White House after the 2024 U.S. Presidential elections.”

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-unsurprisingly-canada-gets-short-end-of-the-stick-in-trade-deal/

 

[Zeitgeist]

5 hours ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

Trump...winning !

 

This is a weak deal.  I’m actually glad of the sunset clause given the concessions Canada made.  We should scrap it in six years.  Trudeau shouldn’t have made and signed this deal. Already Quebec farmers are speaking out and the Premier of that province has said they won’t sign off.  The biggest concern is that steel and aluminum tariffs are still in place, a violation of current NAFTA and the spirit of the new USMCA.  The US has become a more belligerent power and Canada needs to diversify trade away from the US.  There are real concerns to be sure, such as a “macroeconomic panel” to coordinate approaches.  It’s critical that Canada maintain its own monetary policy through the Bank of Canada.  Drug costs will rise. This deal should not be implemented without removing steel and aluminum tariffs.  Political pressure will soon mount.  It’s not too late to back out. We don’t have to ratify. 

Edited October 2, 2018 by Zeitgeist

[bush_cheney2004]

3 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said:

This is a weak deal.  I’m actually glad of the sunset clause given the concessions Canada made.  We should scrap it in six years.  Trudeau shouldn’t have made and signed this deal. Already Quebec farmers are speaking out and the Premier of that province has said they won’t sign off.  The biggest concern is that steel and aluminum tariffs are still in place, a violation of current NAFTA and the spirit of the new USMCA.  The US has become a more belligerent power and Canada needs to diversify trade away from the US.  There are real concerns to be sure, such as a “macroeconomic panel” to coordinate approaches.  It’s critical that Canada maintain its own monetary policy through the Bank of Canada.  Drug costs will rise. This deal should not be implemented without removing steel and aluminum tariffs.  Political pressure will soon mount. 

 

Too bad....Canada should've diversified trade long before Trump came along....that's Canada's bad.

Invest more in pharma if you want Canadian formularies, instead of depending on U.S. Big Pharma to develop them at great cost.

The "deadline" was real...Trudeau and Freeland capitulated....Trump will get his NAFTA victory lap, and amazingly he gets to keep the steel/aluminum tariffs !

 

[Zeitgeist]

11 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

 

Too bad....Canada should've diversified trade long before Trump came along....that's Canada's bad.

Invest more in pharma if you want Canadian formularies, instead of depending on U.S. Big Pharma to develop them at great cost.

The "deadline" was real...Trudeau and Freeland capitulated....Trump will get his NAFTA victory lap, and amazingly he gets to keep the steel/aluminum tariffs !

 

He also keeps the counter tariffs on an industry where the US has a trade surplus.  It’s stupid policy that hurts workers and consumers on both sides of the border.  

[Machjo]

1 hour ago, Zeitgeist said:

This is a weak deal.  I’m actually glad of the sunset clause given the concessions Canada made.  We should scrap it in six years.  Trudeau shouldn’t have made and signed this deal. Already Quebec farmers are speaking out and the Premier of that province has said they won’t sign off.  The biggest concern is that steel and aluminum tariffs are still in place, a violation of current NAFTA and the spirit of the new USMCA.  The US has become a more belligerent power and Canada needs to diversify trade away from the US.  There are real concerns to be sure, such as a “macroeconomic panel” to coordinate approaches.  It’s critical that Canada maintain its own monetary policy through the Bank of Canada.  Drug costs will rise. This deal should not be implemented without removing steel and aluminum tariffs.  Political pressure will soon mount.  It’s not too late to back out. We don’t have to ratify. 

In many respects, this is a good deal for Canada. Two beefs I have with it:

1. The patent-protection period is too long.

2. It prevents Canada from negotiating a trade deal with a 'non-market' country.

The fact that this has forced Canada to lower barriers in key areas will benefit Canada in the long run. As for the new protections that it allows the US, those will actually hurt the US in the long run. I know it might seem counter-intuitive since opening markets does impose growing pains, but this will force Canadian businesses to become more efficient while allowing protected US ones to stagnate. Without irony, I can say too bad Trump didn't twist our arms even more.

Canada should consider another silver lining in  this that Trump might have overlooked... to Canada's advantage. The new deal prevents Canada from 'negotiating' trade deals with 'non-market' economies without first consulting with the US and Mexico on the matter. Unilateral free trade does not require 'negotiation.' Yes it's true that unilateral free trade can take Canada only so far in that Canada could unilaterally lower tariffs and other intentional barriers, but it would still need to negotiate most non-tariff and non-quota barriers such as phyto-sanitary, packaging-and-labeling, and other standards. The restriction on Canada's freedom to 'negotiate' with other countries without the US' consent still does not prevent Canada from engaging in unilateral free trade for what it's worth even if that must  limit itself only to dropping tariffs and quotas. That would still be a start.

Edited October 2, 2018 by Machjo

[Machjo]

1 hour ago, Zeitgeist said:

He also keeps the counter tariffs on an industry where the US has a trade surplus.  It’s stupid policy that hurts workers and consumers on both sides of the border.  

So what if Trump wants to hurt US consumers. Let them deal with it. The new deal restricts Canada's freedom to 'negotiate' trade agreements with 'non-market' countries. It says nothing about unilateral free trade as far as I know. If I 'm right on this, then Canada should fully exploit this loophole and start to unilaterally drop its tariffs. I could envision a Tariff-elimination law that would reduce tariffs by X% every year for the next seventy years until our tariffs are completely eliminated. That would give businesses more than enough time to adapt and give them more than enough fore-warning to plan ahead.

[Zeitgeist]

1 hour ago, Machjo said:

So what if Trump wants to hurt US consumers. Let them deal with it. The new deal restricts Canada's freedom to 'negotiate' trade agreements with 'non-market' countries. It says nothing about unilateral free trade as far as I know. If I 'm right on this, then Canada should fully exploit this loophole and start to unilaterally drop its tariffs. I could envision a Tariff-elimination law that would reduce tariffs by X% every year for the next seventy years until our tariffs are completely eliminated. That would give businesses more than enough time to adapt and give them more than enough fore-warning to plan ahead.

Dropping tariffs against countries that have them against your country is a mistake, but yes, opening new markets and free trade in general is progressive.  I'm trying to understand whether having to consult with the US and Mexico prior to negotiating trade deals is about China and aligning our trade actions with the US, so that the US can prevent China and similar low-cost jurisdictions from dumping non-tariffed goods through Canada, or whether this is part of a different ploy to erode Canada's sovereignty on trade and seek more unfair advantage.  Here's the thing, many of our policies on trade and foreign policy are aligned with the US and will continue to be.  Despite the rhetoric, we know our two countries are close on many issues.  If the steel and aluminum tariffs get dropped quickly, we can probably move on to bigger and better opportunities for exchange and cooperation, even if it's a mediocre agreement.  But Canadians' trust of US leadership has eroded.  The take-away from this mess of trade aggression is reduce reliance on the US as much as possible.       

[bush_cheney2004]

Canada and Mexico are just collateral damage in the ultimate U.S. trade war with China.   The U.S. team has bigger fish to fry than worrying about dairy and poultry's chickenfeed sales in Canada.   Transhipments, auto parts content, and IP theft are also important to Team Trump as they try to firewall against China with more trade deals going forward (e.g. South Korea, Japan).   China is already feeling the burn, with slowing export growth.  

Getting NAFTA 2.0 out of the way will just embolden Trump and his use of tariffs, as Canada and Mexico have begrudgingly made deals under such pressure.  

Trudeau and Freeland can say whatever they want to convince Canadians that they are heroes...the U.S. doesn't care about  their Sunny Ways spin rhetoric for domestic consumption.

[Zeitgeist]

15 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

Canada and Mexico are just collateral damage in the ultimate U.S. trade war with China.   The U.S. team has bigger fish to fry than worrying about dairy and poultry's chickenfeed sales in Canada.   Transhipments, auto parts content, and IP theft are also important to Team Trump as they try to firewall against China with more trade deals going forward (e.g. South Korea, Japan).   China is already feeling the burn, with slowing export growth.  

Getting NAFTA 2.0 out of the way will just embolden Trump and his use of tariffs, as Canada and Mexico have begrudgingly made deals under such pressure.  

Trudeau and Freeland can say whatever they want to convince Canadians that they are heroes...the U.S. doesn't care about  their Sunny Ways spin rhetoric for domestic consumption.

I don't disagree with your take on American self-interest, which demonstrates the importance of protecting Canada from becoming collateral damage in U.S. adventurism, even if it's a trade war instead of an actual war.

[bush_cheney2004]

1 minute ago, Zeitgeist said:

I don't disagree with your take on American self-interest, which demonstrates the importance of protecting Canada from becoming collateral damage in U.S. adventurism, even if it's a trade war instead of an actual war.

 

Canada has been at this juncture before with the belligerent Americans, but has always chosen the devil it knows over the unknown.  The FTA/NAFTA only made things worse for dependencies over the past 25 years, making them that much more difficult to unravel.   Canadian authors/activists like Maude Barlow warned about going down this path, to no avail.

Ultimately, Canada's choices are its own, including the choice to limit its options by playing it safe with those American bastards.

[bush_cheney2004]

How Chrystia Freeland almost screwed up the new YMCA:

 

Quote

"We're very unhappy with the negotiations and the negotiating style of Canada. We don't like their representative very much."

That "representative" was Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland -- the senior cabinet minister leading Canada's trade delegation to rescue NAFTA from a president who won the White House in part by denouncing the agreement as one of the worst deals ever made.

It wasn't Freeland's hard-driving negotiating style that was under Trump's skin. It was her appearance on a panel in Toronto two weeks earlier dubbed "Taking on the Tyrant" that featured a video montage with Trump alongside autocrats like Syria's Bashar al-Assad and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/how-trump-s-freeland-broadside-factored-into-getting-a-trade-deal-done-1.4117515

 

[Machjo]

10 hours ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

 

Canada has been at this juncture before with the belligerent Americans, but has always chosen the devil it knows over the unknown.  The FTA/NAFTA only made things worse for dependencies over the past 25 years, making them that much more difficult to unravel.   Canadian authors/activists like Maude Barlow warned about going down this path, to no avail.

Ultimately, Canada's choices are its own, including the choice to limit its options by playing it safe with those American bastards.

I know you weren't addressing me in this post, but just to clarify: when I say Canada needs to trade more freely with the world, I am including the US here. I know some might want freer trade with the rest of the world and then raise tariffs against the US. I don't see it that way. I actually would like to see even more free trade with the US at least in principle, but just more with the rest of the world too. It doesn't have to be all or nothing.

That said, Canada never should have signed a deal that limited its freedom to negotiate trade agreements with other states. Had NAFTA died, Canada's economy would have been reeling. I don't deny that. However, Canada could then have gone unilateral free trade with the world including the US that would raise tariffs against us. There would be big growing pains, but Canada would have come out stronger in the end and the US could do nothing about it.